The next 19 games will determine if they are buyers or sellers

[PolarVortex]

Last 19 games before the All Star break. 16 are at home where they enjoying a good home field advantage this year. 16 games against teams under .500. Now is the time. This is a golden opportunity to make their move. Felix is back in the rotation now and slated to start Friday. Iwakuma may also be inserted into the rotation at some point. The schedule:

4 vs Detriot (32-36)
Gaviglio
Miranda
Paxton
Gallardo (hopefully his last start)

3 vs Hourson (46-23)
Felix
Bergman
Gaviglio

Off day

2 vs Philly (22-46)
Miranda
Paxton

Off day

3 @ Angels (36-37)
Hernandez
Bergman (Or Iwakuma)
Gaviglio

3 vs KC (33-35)
Miranda
Paxton
Hernandez

4 vs Oakland (31-38)
Bergman (Or Iwakuma)
Gaviglio
Miranda
Paxton

Going 12-7 is a reasonable expectation and would put them at 46-44 at the All Star Break. Of course, there is nothing reasonable about this team.

 

[Destroydacre]

If the M's really are a playoff contender they need to at worst:

Split 4 with Detroit
Win 1 vs Houston
Sweep 2 from Philly
Win 2 in Anaheim
Win 2 vs KC
Win 3 vs Oakland

Doing that would put the M's at 12-7 which matches with Polar. These are some bad teams the M's have coming up with the exception of Houston. A run at the playoffs is still there, no one is running away with a wild card spot. The M's MUST take advantage of this stretch of the schedule.

As for the rotation, with Felix pitching on Friday and Iwakuma in line to pitch Saturday, it really looks like the M's are gonna bump Bergman and Gaviglio from the rotation and keep Gallardo, because the M's are run by morons and would rather keep a guy that has the second worst ERA in the AL among qualified starters and has given up 3+ runs in 12 of his 14 starts over 2 guys that between the 2 of them have given up fewer than 3 earned runs in 11 of 15 starts.

 

[unlvmariners]

Good posts...

If we get consistent pitching I think 12-7, as you both suggested, is reasonable. I don't have much confidence in our pitching this season. If indeed we are in the hunt at the deadline I would think bringing in a pitcher is the only real position we would need to address and it would be pretty costly imo.

It is very difficult to look 19 games down the road and predict whats going to happen. Gotta have a good series against Detroit first and play tough against Houston and don't fuck shit up (know to be a Mariners past time) when you get a cupcake like Philly. I think these next 9 are a big step to going into the break on positive note.

 

[mcnabb7542]

12-7.... That's the worse part of this entire season, on one hand you can say, "hell yeah they pull that off" then there is the other hand where you can say, " this pitching staff will piss that away!"


It's a 50/50 thing right now, please let them win!

 

[SeattleCoug]

I agree with 12-7. Now 11-7 after last night. At some point you can't just tread water. Schedule after the break is significantly harder.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Kind of concerned about how Felix looks.

He wasn't looking great prior to his injury, and in his 3 starts in AAA he was merely okay. If I'm recalling correctly, Kuma got shelled his first rehab start and I get the impression Segura is trying to rush himself back, something that I'm sure the Mariners will probably allow.

Should be interesting. I'm expecting the Mariners go into the break a couple games under, or a couple games over. Unless they have some sort of absolute breakdown, I'm unsure I could see them going into the deadline as sellers.

Additionally, regardless even if they're not "sellers" I don't exactly see them as huge buyers since our minor league system isn't that deep. I could see them making some minor moves, if even that, but I'd be surprised to see them do much.

 

[EVille3]

Kind of concerned about how Felix looks.

He wasn't looking great prior to his injury, and in his 3 starts in AAA he was merely okay. If I'm recalling correctly, Kuma got shelled his first rehab start and I get the impression Segura is trying to rush himself back, something that I'm sure the Mariners will probably allow.

Should be interesting. I'm expecting the Mariners go into the break a couple games under, or a couple games over. Unless they have some sort of absolute breakdown, I'm unsure I could see them going into the deadline as sellers.

Additionally, regardless even if they're not "sellers" I don't exactly see them as huge buyers since our minor league system isn't that deep. I could see them making some minor moves, if even that, but I'd be surprised to see them do much.

Felix's last two starts in AAA:
5.0 IP, 1H, 1ER, 1BB, 5K
6.0 IP, 4H, 0ER, 0BB, 8K

 

[seahawksfan234]

Felix's last two starts in AAA:
5.0 IP, 1H, 1ER, 1BB, 5K
6.0 IP, 4H, 0ER, 0BB, 8K

Ahh, I only saw the 4.15 total ERA. Didn't look at it by start, good catch.

 

[SeattleCoug]

I agree with 12-7. Now 11-7 after last night. At some point you can't just tread water. Schedule after the break is significantly harder.

10-7

 

[PolarVortex]

Last 19 games before the All Star break. 16 are at home where they enjoying a good home field advantage this year. 16 games against teams under .500. Now is the time. This is a golden opportunity to make their move. Felix is back in the rotation now and slated to start Friday. Iwakuma may also be inserted into the rotation at some point. The schedule:

4 vs Detriot (32-36)
Gaviglio
Miranda
Paxton
Gallardo (hopefully his last start)

3 vs Hourson (46-23)
Felix
Bergman
Gaviglio

Off day

2 vs Philly (22-46)
Miranda
Paxton

Off day

3 @ Angels (36-37)
Hernandez
Bergman (Or Iwakuma)
Gaviglio

3 vs KC (33-35)
Miranda
Paxton
Hernandez

4 vs Oakland (31-38)
Bergman (Or Iwakuma)
Gaviglio
Miranda
Paxton

Going 12-7 is a reasonable expectation and would put them at 46-44 at the All Star Break. Of course, there is nothing reasonable about this team.

Moves made by the club today will have an affect on the rotation. Bergman was sent down (a move I do not agree with). The club also announced that Iwakuma would get at least one more rehab start. I had thought he would be pitching Saturday (Bergman's spot in the rotation), but his return has been delayed at least one more start. The club also announced that Andrew Moore has been called up so I am guessing that Moore will start Saturday versus Houston. Not really a soft landing for the kid, but, whatever.

And the fact that Moore has been called up now, rather than Friday, might also indicate that he will start in Gallardo's spot tomorrow (Thursday) night. Probably wishful thinking but one can always hope.

 

[PolarVortex]

MODIFIED

4 vs Detriot (32-36)
Gaviglio - Win
Miranda - Win
Paxton - Win
Moore - Win

3 vs Hourson (46-23)
Felix
Gaviglio
Miranda

Off day

2 vs Philly (22-46)
Paxton
Moore

Off day

3 @ Angels (36-37)
Hernandez
Gaviglio
Miranda

3 vs KC (33-35)
Paxton
Moore
Hernandez

4 vs Oakland (31-38)
Gaviglio
Miranda
Paxton
Moore

Off to a good start. Finally over .500 and have moved within one game of the second wild card. Houston series will be tough but we have two of our best three pitchers going in the series. Moore was a solid shot in the arm and his next three starts before the break look fairly easy.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Man, I just heard the M's have used 31 different pitchers this year.... lol, that's crazy....

 

[SeattleCoug]

Now just need 8-7 which is more then doable. Probably should aim higher but as a battered Mariner fan I won't get greedy.

 

[PolarVortex]

Now just need 8-7 which is more then doable. Probably should aim higher but as a battered Mariner fan I won't get greedy.

Yeah, greed is not a good character trait for an Ms fan. The level of quality they get from Felix will go a long way in determining whether they can pull off the 12-7.

 

[PolarVortex]

Yeah, 12-7 suddenly isn't looking so good. 7-12 may be the final outcome.

And Mike Zunino has apparently remembered that he is just Mike Zunino. Fun while it lasted Mike, but, time to return to reality.

 

[SeattleCoug]

In typical Mariner fashion they will be on the fence and won't buy or sell. We know it's coming.

 

[PolarVortex]

Perpetual stand patters

 

[Anointed One]

So glad I never spent the $700 to take the family to the ballpark in April...

 

[PolarVortex]

This started really well, sweeping a four-game series with Detroit. But then the Astros rolled into town and everything went to hell. They have lost 8 of their last 11. A 12-7 run is no longer attainable. To go 11-8, they would have to sweep Oakland. And that would only get them to .500 at the All Star break.

We really ought to be sellers. If we learned anything from the Houston and Kansas City series, we learned that Seattle doesn't have a contender's bullpen. Our hitting is solid, the defense is great, and the starting pitching is serviceable, but the bullpen just isn't there. I know many of you would like to see them add a starting pitcher, if they intend to be buyers. I'd rather see them pick up two reliable bullpen arms. Taylor Motter and James Pazos for Addison Reed. Boog Powell and Max Povse for Pat Neshek

 

[seahawksfan234]

This started really well, sweeping a four-game series with Detroit. But then the Astros rolled into town and everything went to hell. They have lost 8 of their last 11. A 12-7 run is no longer attainable. To go 11-8, they would have to sweep Oakland. And that would only get them to .500 at the All Star break.

We really ought to be sellers. If we learned anything from the Houston and Kansas City series, we learned that Seattle doesn't have a contender's bullpen. Our hitting is solid, the defense is great, and the starting pitching is serviceable, but the bullpen just isn't there. I know many of you would like to see them add a starting pitcher, if they intend to be buyers. I'd rather see them pick up two reliable bullpen arms. Taylor Motter and James Pazos for Addison Reed. Boog Powell and Max Povse for Pat Neshek

I'd be happy with this.