What would the BCS look like?

[ericd7633]

1. Alabama - .9960
2. Miami - .9407
3. Wisconsin - .8948
4. Clemson - .8705
5. Oklahoma - .8394
6. Georgia - .7872
7. Auburn - .7510
8. Notre Dame - .6825
9. Ohio State - .6690
10. Penn State - .6199
11. UCF - .5993
12. USC - .5980
13. TCU - .5407
14. Washington State - .4015
15. Washington - .3904
16. Mississippi State - .3369
17. Memphis - .3130
18. Michigan State - .2912
19. Stanford - .2520
20. LSU - .2436
21. Oklahoma State - .2151
22. Northwestern - .1780
23. South Florida - .1348
24. Michigan - .1066
25. Virginia Tech - .0911

 

[romeo212000]

Top 5 looks right. Could see Oklahoma flipping with Clemson.

 

[Eco]

I have absolutely no problems with the top 10 and where they are, however I might switch UGA and AU just based on the whipping that took place between them, and one of AU's losses is against a top 4 team on the road.

 

[Across The Field]

It's still shocking that Oklahoma is behind Clemson at this point. Auburn is the only really good win Clemson has and they have a much worse loss. Meanwhile Oklahoma has far more impressive wins against Ohio State and TCU, both top 10, as well as a 3rd win over #18 Oklahoma State. I just don't get it.

 

[ericd7633]

It's still shocking that Oklahoma is behind Clemson at this point. Auburn is the only really good win Clemson has and they have a much worse loss. Meanwhile Oklahoma has far more impressive wins against Ohio State and TCU, both top 10, as well as a 3rd win over #18 Oklahoma State. I just don't get it.

Clemson's schedule has simply been that much better. And you can argue they've performed better against the tougher schedule, as they been more efficient, better game control metrics and are better in the computers(by a wide margin, I might add). The human element has them pretty much identical, the computers is where OU is lagging behind.

 

[Across The Field]

Clemson's schedule has simply been that much better. And you can argue they've performed better against the tougher schedule, as they been more efficient, better game control metrics and are better in the computers(by a wide margin, I might add). The human element has them pretty much identical, the computers is where OU is lagging behind.

They do hold the edge in overall opponents' winning percentage 64-55; 57-64, though they did also play a bad FCS Citadel as part of that. And again, their quality wins dramatically outweigh Clemson's. That's why I'm a little surprised by the wide margin in the computers.

 

[ericd7633]

They do hold the edge in overall opponents' winning percentage 64-55; 57-64, though they did also play a bad FCS Citadel as part of that. And again, their quality wins dramatically outweigh Clemson's. That's why I'm a little surprised by the wide margin in the computers.

And OU played UTEP, which is probably worse than The Citadel, believe it or not(both Sagarin and Massey rate The Citadel as a tougher opponent). And I'd agree OU has 3 quality wins to Clemson's 2. But after that Clemson has wins over .500+ teams like NC State, Wake Forest, Louisville, and Boston College who are all in the top 35 of the Massey Composite.

 

[NolePride]

Let me throw a bit of a curve on "What the BCS would look like.

I don't believe this would be an accurate correlation. The polls have adjusted
how they rank the mid-majors, since we went to the Playoff System. They've adjusted
to the committee, even before the committee releases its first ranking at the end
of October.

The Polls were 2/3's of the ranking system. The current polls list very few mid-majors.
The highest they have ever ranked a mid-major, in the current playoff system is one
week of Memphis being at 13th. After that 15th is the highest ranking for any mid-major.

We can remember mid-majors like Boise, TCU and Utah dotting the Top10.

If the polls still voted the old way and we had UCF and Memphis in the top10 and a couple of others
ranked between 11th and 15, that would change all the numbers.

UCF is ranked 11th in this correlation and they have been stuck in the mid teens all thru November.
That means they are getting a lot of love from those computers.

This just isn't an accurate account of how the BCS would have been, because the polls are not ranking
the mid-majors the same way they did when we had a BCS...IMO.

 

[Across The Field]

And OU played UTEP, which is probably worse than The Citadel, believe it or not(both Sagarin and Massey rate The Citadel as a tougher opponent). And I'd agree OU has 3 quality wins to Clemson's 2. But after that Clemson has wins over .500+ teams like NC State, Wake Forest, Louisville, and Boston College who are all in the top 35 of the Massey Composite.

Fair enough. Massey is the computers, so that makes sense. I didn't realize they had Wake and Boston College so high.

 

[ericd7633]

Let me throw a bit of a curve on "What the BCS would look like.

I don't believe this would be an accurate correlation. The polls have adjusted
how they rank the mid-majors, since we went to the Playoff System. They've adjusted
to the committee, even before the committee releases its first ranking at the end
of October.

The Polls were 2/3's of the ranking system. The current polls list very few mid-majors.
The highest they have ever ranked a mid-major, in the current playoff system is one
week of Memphis being at 13th. After that 15th is the highest ranking for any mid-major.

We can remember mid-majors like Boise, TCU and Utah dotting the Top10.

If the polls still voted the old way and we had UCF and Memphis in the top10 and a couple of others
ranked between 11th and 15, that would change all the numbers.

UCF is ranked 11th in this correlation and they have been stuck in the mid teens all thru November.
That means they are getting a lot of love from those computers.

This just isn't an accurate account of how the BCS would have been, because the polls are not ranking
the mid-majors the same way they did when we had a BCS...IMO.

I disagree with this. You can't compare those Boise State, TCU and Utah teams to current day UCF and Memphis. UCF this season is no different than what Boise State was say back in the early 2000's. It took a lot of time for them to gain respect in the polls, then the Kellen Moore teams were rewarded for what previous teams did, and also had marquee wins OOC to back that up. UCF and Memphis simply doesn't have that.

The mid major pool has also decreased with TCU and Utah leaving to P5 conferences, and BYU going independent.

The last year of the BCS an 11-1 UCF was ranked #15 in the polls, an 11-1 Fresno State was ranked #20 and a 12-1 Northern Illinois team was ranked #23. The biggest problem is there aren't any mid major as good as some of those Boise State, TCU and Utah teams were.

 

[ericd7633]

Fair enough. Massey is the computers, so that makes sense. I didn't realize they had Wake and Boston College so high.

I think Wake's been pretty underrated all season. They are top 20 in overall efficiency and have beaten 5 teams with a +.500 record. Boston College has looked pretty good the 2nd half of the season. And they have 4 wins over teams with a record above .500. I think if both teams were average teams they wouldn't be going to a bowl game this season. Both are above average teams IMO. I think Wake might even sneak into the committee's top 25, or at least it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[outofyourmind]

So the big games count less and wins vs teams you should beat count more.

Sounds retarded.

 

[Across The Field]

I think Wake's been pretty underrated all season. They are top 20 in overall efficiency and have beaten 5 teams with a +.500 record. Boston College has looked pretty good the 2nd half of the season. And they have 4 wins over teams with a record above .500. I think if both teams were average teams they wouldn't be going to a bowl game this season. Both are above average teams IMO. I think Wake might even sneak into the committee's top 25, or at least it wouldn't surprise me.

At 7-4, that would be very surprising. They beat Louisville and NC State, which are decent wins, I'll give you that. I don't think you can put them in just yet though.

 

[kburjr]

So the big games count less and wins vs teams you should beat count more.

Sounds retarded.

If beating teams you should beat counted more, Wisky would be #2 at worst.

 

[outofyourmind]

If beating teams you should beat counted more, Wisky would be #2 at worst.

You forgot the big game(s) part

 

[kburjr]

You forgot the big game(s) part

Don't need any. All of our wins count more.

 

[ericd7633]

At 7-4, that would be very surprising. They beat Louisville and NC State, which are decent wins, I'll give you that. I don't think you can put them in just yet though.

I'm guessing Michigan falls out, and if NC State were to fall out there would need to be 2 teams to move up. I think Va. Tech is almost assured of being one of those teams, then it comes down to teams like Wake Forest, Iowa State, and maybe a team like San Diego State. If they aren't in it, I think a win next week will get them there.

 

[Voltaire26]

1. Alabama - .9960
2. Miami - .9407
3. Wisconsin - .8948
4. Clemson - .8705
5. Oklahoma - .8394
6. Georgia - .7872
7. Auburn - .7510
8. Notre Dame - .6825
9. Ohio State - .6690
10. Penn State - .6199
11. UCF - .5993
12. USC - .5980
13. TCU - .5407
14. Washington State - .4015
15. Washington - .3904
16. Mississippi State - .3369
17. Memphis - .3130
18. Michigan State - .2912
19. Stanford - .2520
20. LSU - .2436
21. Oklahoma State - .2151
22. Northwestern - .1780
23. South Florida - .1348
24. Michigan - .1066
25. Virginia Tech - .0911

I can't say I have a problem with that ... Miami/Clemson will be settled on the field, Alabama/Georgia/Auburn will be settled on the field and Wisconsin/ohio state will be settled on the field. If Oklahoma wins they are in ... if they lose it leaves the door open for Notre Dame (who should be in a conference).

Note Michigan at 24th with 1066 - the same year William the Conqueror invaded England - some foreshadowing for the Michigan/ohio state game this week?

 

[Across The Field]

I'm guessing Michigan falls out, and if NC State were to fall out there would need to be 2 teams to move up. I think Va. Tech is almost assured of being one of those teams, then it comes down to teams like Wake Forest, Iowa State, and maybe a team like San Diego State. If they aren't in it, I think a win next week will get them there.

Think they'd put Wake in over michigan this week? Next week, I could see it obviously.

 

[outofyourmind]

When did beating .500 teams become some kind of benchmark.


asking for a friend.