Von Miller says "no chance" he plays on the FT

[Rockinkuwait]

imo over paying is paying well above market for potential vs proven results....I understand what you're saying, HOU could afford it, but in the NFL with a hard cap, you can't over pay. For DEN to offer the same contract they would have to release players to make it fit, even then they would likely face dead money issues that would keep them in cap hell for another yr or two.

With Von Miller's deal looming, the reality was DEN simply couldn't afford that contract even if they wanted to give to him.

FA value...definitely Osweiler had more than one suitor which does drive up the price, but again, we're talking about an unproven commodity. CLE, imo no, they were too high in the draft, and too low on the competitive scale to offer a HOU type deal...Philly could, not certain about WAS, and the Rams have cap issues themselves so I'll say PHI, HOU, maybe SF (if they wanted to eat 7 or 8 mil in dead money to axe Kaep) would be legit suitors aside from DEN.

100% agree here.


Why can't Hou overpay though? Their key FA's come out in 2018... With overpaying Osweiler against the hard cap they look better than Denver not giving him a dime. They have the 2nd most players signed through 2017 (dallas has 1 more player signed, 21 mil less in cap space). If Brock isn't playing up to par by the end of 2017, you can cut him, 6 mil cap hit and you could spread it over 2 years if you want.

SF is an easy go to me. Cutting Kaep costs 0$ cash and actually gets them up to 57 mil in cap space to sign a QB (take 7 mil cap hit, but lose 15 mil cap cost, so net gain 8.5 mil in cap space). If he wasn't a lock to hold out later, they could frontload the heck out of that deal with no cap issues.

Wash could have. 1st year of deal with a signing bonus would almost surely be less than a franchise tag hit (Cousins costs 19.25 mil, Osweiler costs 12 in year 1).

Cle I wouldn't write off with the competitive scale.
Some top FA's at the time (or trades where the QB had to sign a long term deal with the new team to go there)
Saints 3 win team added Brees
Texans 6 win team added Schaub
Jets 4 win team added Favre
Chiefs 2 win team added Cassel
Jets 1 win team added O'Donnell
Wash 6 win team added Brad Johnson
Wash 4 win team added McNabb

STL is tighter on the cap but a lot would change with Cousins. Don't frontload Hayes, release Keenum, release Foles in 2017, maybe pass on Sensebaugh.

STL I could see falling out sooner, bit of a darkhorse, but SF/Cle/Wash are legit with Phi/Hou to me. That's an awesome market for Cousins. Darkhorses would be Den backloading the crap out of a deal, or Buf/NYJ passing on Glenn/ Wilkerson for Cousins.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

100% agree here.


Why can't Hou overpay though? Their key FA's come out in 2018... With overpaying Osweiler against the hard cap they look better than Denver not giving him a dime. They have the 2nd most players signed through 2017 (dallas has 1 more player signed, 21 mil less in cap space). If Brock isn't playing up to par by the end of 2017, you can cut him, 6 mil cap hit and you could spread it over 2 years if you want.

SF is an easy go to me. Cutting Kaep costs 0$ cash and actually gets them up to 57 mil in cap space to sign a QB (take 7 mil cap hit, but lose 15 mil cap cost, so net gain 8.5 mil in cap space). If he wasn't a lock to hold out later, they could frontload the heck out of that deal with no cap issues.

Wash could have. 1st year of deal with a signing bonus would almost surely be less than a franchise tag hit (Cousins costs 19.25 mil, Osweiler costs 12 in year 1).

Cle I wouldn't write off with the competitive scale.
Some top FA's at the time (or trades where the QB had to sign a long term deal with the new team to go there)
Saints 3 win team added Brees
Texans 6 win team added Schaub
Jets 4 win team added Favre
Chiefs 2 win team added Cassel
Jets 1 win team added O'Donnell
Wash 6 win team added Brad Johnson
Wash 4 win team added McNabb

STL is tighter on the cap but a lot would change with Cousins. Don't frontload Hayes, release Keenum, release Foles in 2017, maybe pass on Sensebaugh.

STL I could see falling out sooner, bit of a darkhorse, but SF/Cle/Wash are legit with Phi/Hou to me. That's an awesome market for Cousins. Darkhorses would be Den backloading the crap out of a deal, or Buf/NYJ passing on Glenn/ Wilkerson for Cousins.

100% agree here.

HOU...I think you said it early on...they had the cap space to spend...they have a good enough supporting cast where some stability at QB makes them a legit contender...i.e. they feel it's a risk worth taking....exactly like SEA did when they went out and paid the FA QB from Green Bay, Flynn...the dollars are whole lot more than in this case, but the circumstances were very much the same...fortunately SEA drafted RW and Carroll had the foresight and the balls to play him over the high priced FA.

Which teams were in the market...SF as you pointed out could've created the space for Os, they were in position to take Lynch, trade back for Lynch...they did none of the above, so were they really in the market for Osweiler? Most likely not.

WAS I'll give ya...but it's not some much yr one that would cause them problems.

CLE I stand by because after losing Alex Mack, Schwartz, best WR Benjamin, S Gispson left , Jackson and the FO clearly seem to be in rebuild mode by drafting 25 players or whatever...had they retained those key players, going after Osweiler makes sense, but not after the exodus....I wouldn't count them as a real contender to sign a big FA at any position really.

All the other cases you mentioned poor teams going after QBs...was the contract comparable to what Osweiler, got even in that time frame? Maybe Brees, and I think he was fairly cheap coming off injury, but he had 3 or 4 yrs as a starter. Obviously Farve was proven.

BUF...no, they still have Taylor whom they are struggling to find money for.

NYJ...yes

DEN...not really feasbile for the same reasons they couldn't sign Osweiler...back loading vs teams with cash in hand now...seriously?

There was a market, but not as big as you're thinking imo. I still think the tag was a win/win for Cousins, but had one of the true contenders had a shot at him, he would've gotten more the $20mil G$ overall, but $20 mil in '16...idk...still think not.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

100% agree here.


Why can't Hou overpay though? Their key FA's come out in 2018... With overpaying Osweiler against the hard cap they look better than Denver not giving him a dime. They have the 2nd most players signed through 2017 (dallas has 1 more player signed, 21 mil less in cap space). If Brock isn't playing up to par by the end of 2017, you can cut him, 6 mil cap hit and you could spread it over 2 years if you want.

SF is an easy go to me. Cutting Kaep costs 0$ cash and actually gets them up to 57 mil in cap space to sign a QB (take 7 mil cap hit, but lose 15 mil cap cost, so net gain 8.5 mil in cap space). If he wasn't a lock to hold out later, they could frontload the heck out of that deal with no cap issues.

Wash could have. 1st year of deal with a signing bonus would almost surely be less than a franchise tag hit (Cousins costs 19.25 mil, Osweiler costs 12 in year 1).

Cle I wouldn't write off with the competitive scale.
Some top FA's at the time (or trades where the QB had to sign a long term deal with the new team to go there)
Saints 3 win team added Brees
Texans 6 win team added Schaub
Jets 4 win team added Favre
Chiefs 2 win team added Cassel
Jets 1 win team added O'Donnell
Wash 6 win team added Brad Johnson
Wash 4 win team added McNabb

STL is tighter on the cap but a lot would change with Cousins. Don't frontload Hayes, release Keenum, release Foles in 2017, maybe pass on Sensebaugh.

STL I could see falling out sooner, bit of a darkhorse, but SF/Cle/Wash are legit with Phi/Hou to me. That's an awesome market for Cousins. Darkhorses would be Den backloading the crap out of a deal, or Buf/NYJ passing on Glenn/ Wilkerson for Cousins.

Something went wrong on my other post.
HOU...I think you said it early on...they had the cap space to spend...they have a good enough supporting cast where some stability at QB makes them a legit contender...i.e. they feel it's a risk worth taking....exactly like SEA did when they went out and paid the FA QB from Green Bay, Flynn...the dollars are whole lot more than in this case, but the circumstances were very much the same...fortunately SEA drafted RW and Carroll had the foresight and the balls to play him over the high priced FA.

Which teams were in the market...SF as you pointed out could've created the space for Os, they were in position to take Lynch, trade back for Lynch...they did none of the above, so were they really in the market for Osweiler? Most likely not.

WAS I'll give ya...but it's not some much yr one that would cause them problems.

CLE I stand by because after losing Alex Mack, Schwartz, best WR Benjamin, S Gispson left , Jackson and the FO clearly seem to be in rebuild mode by drafting 25 players or whatever...had they retained those key players, going after Osweiler makes sense, but not after the exodus....I wouldn't count them as a real contender to sign a big FA at any position really.

All the other cases you mentioned poor teams going after QBs...was the contract comparable to what Osweiler, got even in that time frame? Maybe Brees, and I think he was fairly cheap coming off injury, but he had 3 or 4 yrs as a starter. Obviously Farve was proven.

BUF...no, they still have Taylor whom they are struggling to find money for.

NYJ...yes

DEN...not really feasbile for the same reasons they couldn't sign Osweiler...back loading vs teams with cash in hand now...seriously?

There was a market, but not as big as you're thinking imo. I still think the tag was a win/win for Cousins, but had one of the true contenders had a shot at him, he would've gotten more the $20mil G$ overall, but $20 mil in '16...idk...still think not.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Something went wrong on my other post.
HOU...I think you said it early on...they had the cap space to spend...they have a good enough supporting cast where some stability at QB makes them a legit contender...i.e. they feel it's a risk worth taking....exactly like SEA did when they went out and paid the FA QB from Green Bay, Flynn...the dollars are whole lot more than in this case, but the circumstances were very much the same...fortunately SEA drafted RW and Carroll had the foresight and the balls to play him over the high priced FA.

Which teams were in the market...SF as you pointed out could've created the space for Os, they were in position to take Lynch, trade back for Lynch...they did none of the above, so were they really in the market for Osweiler? Most likely not.

WAS I'll give ya...but it's not some much yr one that would cause them problems.

CLE I stand by because after losing Alex Mack, Schwartz, best WR Benjamin, S Gispson left , Jackson and the FO clearly seem to be in rebuild mode by drafting 25 players or whatever...had they retained those key players, going after Osweiler makes sense, but not after the exodus....I wouldn't count them as a real contender to sign a big FA at any position really.

All the other cases you mentioned poor teams going after QBs...was the contract comparable to what Osweiler, got even in that time frame? Maybe Brees, and I think he was fairly cheap coming off injury, but he had 3 or 4 yrs as a starter. Obviously Farve was proven.

BUF...no, they still have Taylor whom they are struggling to find money for.

NYJ...yes

DEN...not really feasbile for the same reasons they couldn't sign Osweiler...back loading vs teams with cash in hand now...seriously?

There was a market, but not as big as you're thinking imo. I still think the tag was a win/win for Cousins, but had one of the true contenders had a shot at him, he would've gotten more the $20mil G$ overall, but $20 mil in '16...idk...still think not.

Ok... Some good points, I still think all you need is two that really want him, and believe for Cousins there would be more than two. You are right, teams could have passed for this reason or that. But financially viable to make offers without any major cap issues, there were some good ones out there. And the darkhorses were really darkhorses, that one surprising move you see every few years. Some scouts really don't care for Tyrod (I do). Denver would have to push a NO type situation for Cousins (Brees got 10 mil cap hit in year 1 on a 20 mil a year deal). SF may have liked Cousins a lot more than Brock or Lynch. Jets may decide Wilkerson +Fitzpatrick is better than Cousins... who knows.






Checking on the QB's for fun. This is tough as QB pay compared to the cap has risen so much lately. Figure Eli when he signed his last deal in 2009 was the highest paid QB year to year and guaranteed at 16.25 mil a year, 33 mil guaranteed. Equiv of 20.4 mil a year today which would put him 10th in salary (11th here soon when Luck signs his) and an equiv of 40 mil based on today's cap (6th most) which would be 54 mil today to be the top one.

So you can't just say the cap jumped 23% which I usually use to look at those things. Qb values as a percent of that cap also have jumped. I don't have a top 10 list every year, but in the case of Eli he would have made 18.9 mil a year then (vs. 16.25) 46 mil guaranteed then (vs. 33 mil ) if QB's had the same value then as they do now financially.

Brees, 22 mil guaranteed. Equivalent today of 36 mil guaranteed (47 mil if you bring it up for the higher QB prices today). 16.2 mil a year (19 w/ QB premium). And like you said, the shoulder really had teams worried on Brees.

Favre was proven, but going to a team that looked to be collapsing was more my point. Same with O'donnell, Johnson, McNabb.



Cassel I think is the best apples to apples example, but still there teams were having to give up picks to get him, so it wasn't truly open bidding. Equiv of 37 mil guaranteed before todays premium on QB's ( 49 mil with that premium, and I don't think he performed as well in NE as Cousins, but had much better teammates/coaching.

And a better way for Cassel. He about exactly doubled the franchise tag in his deal for guaranteed money. Equiv of Cousins making 40 mil. Take away the high cost for just about every single team on him (better deal offered than KC with the 34th overall) I think we can easily see how that would open him up to quite a few more bidding teams if it only cost them money and 40 mil could easily become more.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Ok... Some good points, I still think all you need is two that really want him, and believe for Cousins there would be more than two. You are right, teams could have passed for this reason or that. But financially viable to make offers without any major cap issues, there were some good ones out there. And the darkhorses were really darkhorses, that one surprising move you see every few years. Some scouts really don't care for Tyrod (I do). Denver would have to push a NO type situation for Cousins (Brees got 10 mil cap hit in year 1 on a 20 mil a year deal). SF may have liked Cousins a lot more than Brock or Lynch. Jets may decide Wilkerson +Fitzpatrick is better than Cousins... who knows.






Checking on the QB's for fun. This is tough as QB pay compared to the cap has risen so much lately. Figure Eli when he signed his last deal in 2009 was the highest paid QB year to year and guaranteed at 16.25 mil a year, 33 mil guaranteed. Equiv of 20.4 mil a year today which would put him 10th in salary (11th here soon when Luck signs his) and an equiv of 40 mil based on today's cap (6th most) which would be 54 mil today to be the top one.

So you can't just say the cap jumped 23% which I usually use to look at those things. Qb values as a percent of that cap also have jumped. I don't have a top 10 list every year, but in the case of Eli he would have made 18.9 mil a year then (vs. 16.25) 46 mil guaranteed then (vs. 33 mil ) if QB's had the same value then as they do now financially.

Brees, 22 mil guaranteed. Equivalent today of 36 mil guaranteed (47 mil if you bring it up for the higher QB prices today). 16.2 mil a year (19 w/ QB premium). And like you said, the shoulder really had teams worried on Brees.

Favre was proven, but going to a team that looked to be collapsing was more my point. Same with O'donnell, Johnson, McNabb.



Cassel I think is the best apples to apples example, but still there teams were having to give up picks to get him, so it wasn't truly open bidding. Equiv of 37 mil guaranteed before todays premium on QB's ( 49 mil with that premium, and I don't think he performed as well in NE as Cousins, but had much better teammates/coaching.

And a better way for Cassel. He about exactly doubled the franchise tag in his deal for guaranteed money. Equiv of Cousins making 40 mil. Take away the high cost for just about every single team on him (better deal offered than KC with the 34th overall) I think we can easily see how that would open him up to quite a few more bidding teams if it only cost them money and 40 mil could easily become more.

Good debate...at the end of it I think we're both kind of in the same corner we started out in though.

We've done a fair amount of speculating on who the suitors may have been. Of course we'll never really know that answer, but I did concede that Cousins most likely would've gotten a guarantee of more than $20 mil spread over a 2 or 3 year period. That said, I still contend that the franchise tag, was a win/win for Cousins and the Redskins.

Cousins...This upcoming season, he's being paid $19.9mil (among the top 10% of players at his position) in the league. That's after coming off the final yr of his rookie deal where he made roughly $600k. Cousins is familiar with the system, and they get some key targets back this year. That should give him the best opportunity to succeed in this "prove it to us" year. While a long term deal would be ideal financially, his best chance of success is in WAS imo.

WAS...Gruden was rewarded for choosing the best QB for his system. Cousins had a very good year statistically and the 'Skins won their DIV as a result. They lost at home in the WC round...35-18, of the 9 wins they had, none were against playoff teams. The two playoff teams they faced reg season, NE and CAR, both handled WAS pretty easily.

So...there was a mixed reaction in the FO...after seeing other QBs like Foles, and Cassel, among others struggle after showing early promise, the 'Skins decided (via the franchise tag) they wanted to see another year of Cousins as the starter and make a decision on a long term contract after two seasons as opposed to one.

One of the smarter moves they've made recently imo.