UGGGGGGGH bell your killing me!

[nj_cup]

ok so i posted on here before but i'm in a bell situation

i'm in a 10 team keeper i hold the 6th pick.

my choices to keep are bell/miller or if i wanted to my best wr are hilton/cooks.

its qb rbx2 wrx3 te. ppr.


then i have a 12 team ppr where i'm drafting 8th

i have another 12 team ppr where i'm drafting 10th. i'm pretty positive bell will be there in both of those but do i take him? i posted in the other thread where the guy is posting is draft live who was in my spot at 8 that i initially thought of taking wr/wr but seeing how that draft played out i'm kinda leaning towards taking bell in the first round since i dont like peterson or zeke and miller is a reach at #8. damn this choice was a lot easier when bell had a 4 game suspension but now 3?

of course all this is a moot point if hopkins is still available or to a lesser extent aj green

 

[TREFF]

So, how can you like a guy that is guaranteed to give you 3 straight zeros, had a little bit of a history of missing 1-3 more games due to injury, but in the same breath say you don't like Peterson, Zeke, and that Miller at 8 is a reach? Taking or keeping a guy who, you know for a fact isn't going to play 3 games, anywhere in the first round is a reach. Even if Bell might score 2-3 points a week when he is playing, on average, more than AP or Miller, that's still 3 weeks he's not scoring a single point.

I wouldn't touch him in the first, likely not in the second either, would depend on who I got in the 1st, and what's still available.

AP, Miller or Zeke is the guy I'd pick, hell I'd take Charles or Shady over Bell..I mean let's not forget, he's one strike away from a year or longer suspension too.

As for your keeper, I'd keep Miller

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Technically this little mishap didn't push Bell into the next suspension bracket, so another pot ding, and its only 4 games again, maybe 6, but either way, you have a guy with a legit history of injury and suspension.

I'd agree - shy away in the 1st round, much rather have AP, Gurley, Zeke, or Miller in PPR over a 3 game suspension Bell.

 

[nj_cup]

injury at bell age isn't as big of a risk IMO as injury to a 31 year old peterson let alone him falling off a CLIFF which is possible.


my thinking for bell is that while yes i won't have him for 3 games the games that i would have him for he has the chance of putting up rb1 points when i need them most. like 20pts

i plan on drafting a 3rd and 4th rb later in the draft i would simply plug them into the role for 3 weeks as my rb. i could probably snag langford in the 5th or ivory later

 

[nj_cup]

my knock on keeping miller (which is what i chose to do anyway) is that bell at least has put up #1 overall points before. this is millers first year being the top option in the backfield and actually being used properly. also having 4 games against the titans and the colts is pretty tempting

 

[TREFF]

injury at bell age isn't as big of a risk IMO as injury to a 31 year old peterson let alone him falling off a CLIFF which is possible.


my thinking for bell is that while yes i won't have him for 3 games the games that i would have him for he has the chance of putting up rb1 points when i need them most. like 20pts

i plan on drafting a 3rd and 4th rb later in the draft i would simply plug them into the role for 3 weeks as my rb. i could probably snag langford in the 5th or ivory later

Best laid plans. .right? ?

I dunno, a guaranteed zero 3 weeks is a bigger knock than I can come up with for anyone who isn't suspended. A slight decrease, and that's assuming it actually happens, from AP is gonna be somewhere around 30 points better than Bell those 3 weeks. .just saying

 

[nj_cup]

Bell and Peterson over the course of a full 16 game season who would have more fantasy points? Bell. So outside of the three games bell in theory will out produce ap. Say Peterson puts up 60 total fantasy points in those three weeks. The rb who would be started in place of bell will get you back about 30 of them? 10 a week seems realistic. So your drafting ap ahead of bell who should out produce him over the last 13 games of the season for 30 extra points?

I'm trying to look at it from all angles I'm just torn. The more I think about bell and his suspension the more I don't think it's as big a deal as many make out to believe.

 

[FaCe-LeE-uS]

AP, Miller or Zeke is the guy I'd pick, hell I'd take Charles or Shady over Bell..I mean let's not forget, he's one strike away from a year or longer suspension too.

Just a minor correction for ya Treff... According to the appeal settlement from his recent suspension he is to stay in the same drug program and will only incur a 4 game suspension if he should have another violation. That goes against the 3-strike rule of 10games to a year, but that was part of the agreement.

 

[TREFF]

Just a minor correction for ya Treff... According to the appeal settlement from his recent suspension he is to stay in the same drug program and will only incur a 4 game suspension if he should have another violation. That goes against the 3-strike rule of 10games to a year, but that was part of the agreement.

Yea, Monkey mentioned that too, and I had forgotten that little caveat. Oh well, 4 games on top of the 3 for one more slip up is still a good enough reason to be hesitant, especially if the options are as attractive as AP and Miller

 

[TREFF]

Bell and Peterson over the course of a full 16 game season who would have more fantasy points? Bell. So outside of the three games bell in theory will out produce ap. Say Peterson puts up 60 total fantasy points in those three weeks. The rb who would be started in place of bell will get you back about 30 of them? 10 a week seems realistic. So your drafting ap ahead of bell who should out produce him over the last 13 games of the season for 30 extra points?

I'm trying to look at it from all angles I'm just torn. The more I think about bell and his suspension the more I don't think it's as big a deal as many make out to believe.

Say you miss the playoffs by one game, one game that 10-15 from AP would've won you but the zero from Bell (or the 5-10 from his subpar replacement) caused a loss, does it matter which one averaged more points per game, or does it matter that one cost you the game the ended your season?

 

[TREFF]

Just as a reference, in the 6 games Bell played, he averaged 14.4 points a game (espn standard scoring), AP averaged 13.5 in 16 games. .Bell isn't making up 3 weeks worth of points unless AP falls off the map or gets hurt himself

 

[tlance]

Whether or not Bell is worth the pick depends on 2 things:

How many teams make the playoffs?

How confident are you in your ability to find a replacement for 3 games?

Personally, I would gladly take Bell in any league where 6 or more teams make the playoffs. If it is only 4, I am thinking twice. Treff's logic on Bell's value is a bit flawed though. Sure, he is scoring 0 points the first 3 weeks, but those weeks are easy to find replacements. Nobody is on bye and your filler will probably get you 7-10 points. You are not taking a zero there.

Let's say that the player you are considering taking over Bell will get you 14 points a week. Bell will get 16. Your 3 week replacement nets you 8.

In that example, it will only take Bell 9 weeks to make up the value gap on the player you would have taken. Again, whether you decide that is worth it depends on your league and your risk tolerance.

 

[TREFF]

Whether or not Bell is worth the pick depends on 2 things:

How many teams make the playoffs?

How confident are you in your ability to find a replacement for 3 games?

Personally, I would gladly take Bell in any league where 6 or more teams make the playoffs. If it is only 4, I am thinking twice. Treff's logic on Bell's value is a bit flawed though. Sure, he is scoring 0 points the first 3 weeks, but those weeks are easy to find replacements. Nobody is on bye and your filler will probably get you 7-10 points. You are not taking a zero there.

Let's say that the player you are considering taking over Bell will get you 14 points a week. Bell will get 16. Your 3 week replacement nets you 8.

In that example, it will only take Bell 9 weeks to make up the value gap on the player you would have taken. Again, whether you decide that is worth it depends on your league and your risk tolerance.

I did mention the "subpar" replacement getting 5-10.
But still, just can't justify spending that kind of price tag on a guy guaranteed to be unavailable for a quarter of the fantasy regular season. ..especially when that same dude also had a history of missing games later in the season too.

Far too much risk regardless of playoff settings imho. If this were a question about Bell vs a guy you might get in the 3rd or fourth, I could see it. But the other options are guys like Zeke, Miller and AP- and although he didn't mention them, Charles and Shady as well.. Just not even a question for me, too risky

 

[tlance]

I did mention the "subpar" replacement getting 5-10.
But still, just can't justify spending that kind of price tag on a guy guaranteed to be unavailable for a quarter of the fantasy regular season. ..especially when that same dude also had a history of missing games later in the season too.

Far too much risk regardless of playoff settings imho. If this were a question about Bell vs a guy you might get in the 3rd or fourth, I could see it. But the other options are guys like Zeke, Miller and AP- and although he didn't mention them, Charles and Shady as well.. Just not even a question for me, too risky

I would definitely take Bell over Charles and Shady unless only 4 make the playoffs. The others though? No thanks. AP, Elliott and Miller should all be taken first.

 

[nj_cup]

Your argument of taking a loss because of a subpar player in the first three weeks costing you a playoff spot is the same as bell getting you a win to put you in the playoffs at the end of the season.


It's just weird that without the suspension bell was at best the first rb taken and at worst the 3rd one taken after gurley and Johnson. so if people were willing to take him #4 overall for a full 16 game season 3 games really drops him below zeke who is an unproven rookie and a 31 year old ap?

Would you rather have bell as your rb1 going towards the end of the season or ap? Without the suspension it would be bell no? If not then how was bell ever ranked so high before the suspension?

IMO if you went 0-3 with bell taking bell then your in trouble. If your 1-2 your ok 2-1 your cooking. 3-0? Game over

 

[TREFF]

A quarter of the fantasy regular season...a quarter! That's just not worth a keep or a top pick. .not in my book, just my opinion..and that without adding the strong possibility he misses a couple more with his history

 

[TREFF]

I mean I get where your coming from I do. .but I don't feel comfortable depending on him being there in crunch time, based on his history, which is one thing, but at least he'd really help get me there, and this year I can't count on him to get me to crunch time either.

If this were a debate with a guy with an equally questionable injury history, or job security issues, or some other similar issues, I'd probably side with Bell, but your talking about AP, Miller, and Zeke (and me myself and I would include Charles and Shady)..that's just too much risk vs relative safety in AP or Miller, and virtually limitless pennyroyal on Zeke

 

[nj_cup]

Everyone has questions though.

Ap missed a year for child abuse missed a year for injury and is 31 the cliff is coming
Zeke is a rookie who knows how that will pan out.
Miller totally unknown how he will handle a legit work load or even if they want to run as much as the past.
Charles two major injuries
Shady injury last year.

I get what your saying too and I'm not trying to make you change your mind. I'm just I guess trying to convince myself one way or the other. At first I was all anti bell now? I don't know if I am so much esp picking towards the back end of the draft where all the top 5 wr are gone and the top tier rb in gurley and Johnson. To be able to get top 4 talent that late along with another player in the top 18? That's pretty good.

Just want to add if you do take bell and go down 0-3 chances are having ap wouldn't have helped you either. Since the point difference like you said in ap and bell is so close only two points. Your drafting bell for that huge game potential when he goes off for 30 while still constantly giving you 15-20

 

[TREFF]

Well best of luck regardless, it's not a gamble I personally would make. I'm sticking with my advice being to grab AP, Miller, Zeke, or maybe Hopkins/Green/Dez, if you want to go wide.

Ya know the great news though? There's still 15 other slots to fill where a top 5 talent or two almost always seem to come from

 

[TKOSpikes]

To clarify... I'd be keeping Bell if that was something I could continue to do annually.

Redraft... gimme AP, all day. Pardon the pun. Love the schedule, player, coach, defense, schedule, player, player, player.