THE TRADES THREAD

[JohnU]

I am in that group that thinks spring training is the best time to find relief pitchers. Cheaper, less risk.
On Simon, I don't know what to expect. He's got a good cutter and the guy loves to pitch. In an AL environment with good run support, maybe he's a 7-inning guy.

 

[Tubbs1518]

Well, that would make zero sense to me. I have to believe Cueto is worth quite a bit more than Craig, and if Boston had many prospects, they wouldn't have spent the money on the roster they just signed, still without any pitching. If I knew I couldn't sign Cueto, I would at least avoid ticket sale disaster until trade deadline was looming, not start the sell off pre-spring training.

I honestly think there are some things the Reds could do without making a big move that would improve the team to contend for a wildcard at least. First, they have to get Votto to work everyday- even if he's a .280/15/75 player. Second, they have to get Bruce making enough contact that he can occupy a spot in the lineup that doesn't have a Ludwick or Cozart non-hitter "protecting" him in the lineup. If you get a giy that can't hit a ball out of the zone, but will swing anyway, the worst thing to do is put someone behind him that makes it a no-brainer NOT to throw the swingaholic a strike..ever. Explains the Bruce half HR output for me. They have to get BP a more logical offensive role- he's not an RBI guy, frankly because in those spots he pulls too much, without the power to make it worth it. Bunt Hamilton more. Have him take fewer 1st pitch strikes and put them in play. Look to walk in missed zone first pitches, instead. It would be a good idea to have Mesoraco shag a couple balls in LF as a second position, so he might get 500 AB instead of 380...and hit 35 HR instead of 25.

Since less than 10% of Series winners in the last half century did NOT have a LHSP, might be a good idea to get one of the top 5 LH pitching arms with 3 MLB quality pitches in recent history (Chapman), IN THE ROTATION, regardless of who closes. On a team that plays good D and doesn't hit much, GETTING a lead to hold is harder than KEEPING one. The stupidity of not doing this really is, there is virtually no reprocussions if it doesn't work- he can close a week after his last start. Can't go the other way in- season.

Stop expecting guys hitting under .250 to move a no-out runner at 2b without a bunt attempt, and stop expecting guys with average speed and no early signal from the 3b coach, to score from 2b on short singles.

That would make the Reds at least half a dozen games better....without spending a dime or costing any players.

Boston has quite a bit of good prospects. One of Henry Owens or Eduardo Rodriguez would certainly come back. Both are really good pitching prospects. Matt Barnes is another good pitching prospect they have. And while Boegarts and Mookie aren't technically prospects still, both are extremely talented guys who could come back as well. Cecchini is a solid 3b prospect as well.

 

[JohnU]

The nature of the 2-year or 4-year deal is that it presumes the prospect is more than a year away from being an impact player. So if a guy is borderline MLB-ready, it doesn't make a lot of sense to dump big bucks into a place-holder. Ludwick was a place-holder but the problem was, there wasn't anybody close enough to ready once Ludwick's time was done.
Now, the Reds have Winker, who seems to be the darling of the pundits. Whether the kid can hit the big-league changeup is not known but in the case of the outfield situation, a 2-year deal for the Reds makes a little more sense.
In Boston's case, signing a lot of 2-year deals for placeholders is probably counterproductive because the guys who are nearly ready would have to spend another year hitting AAA pitching instead of getting real time on the Fenway field.
So, it would seem that Boston has to make some kind of decision about how long they want to hang onto these prospects -- winning now seems to be their 2015 goal, and I'd guess finishing last tends to do that to teams that are a year removed from the W.S. trophy.
Not sure what all this means, but I think the Bosox will take a close look at their 2015 very early in the process and maybe will retool on the fly if necessary. They can't do worse than they did and they can't do better than they did, all inside a year's time.
The Reds are a much different animal. This is a team that is very hard to predict. But I see it as a contender, but not a finisher. There are only 3 rotation guys to count on, and only 1 of them is all that dependable. Hitting can get you through August, if you have hitting.

 

[Redsfan1507]

So they get Byrd...the trade they should have made a couple years ago. He becomes the new Ludwick now- 37 year old making $8m/yr. Although I think more of Byrd on both sides of the field than Ludwick, he's 37. That means he could be .270/25 or .240/10. Time isn't on his side, but there is the perpetual hope he's serviceable until Winkler or the next prospect promise takes over.

 

[JohnU]

I did see where Ondrusek is going to pitch in Japan. Honestly, I think he's better than that unless he knows something we don't.

As for trades, there is no reason to think that all the teams are done dealing though the one enlightened position that Walt needed to fill was (ahem) filled. I am not down on Byrd, just don't see this as the solution. The guy strikes out too much ... not a dealbreaker if the rest of the team doesn't strike out too much. Byrd doesn't add gazelle speed to the lineup but he's maybe dependable.
I remain convinced that Aoki was the solution for 2015, but I can't get much agreement on that.
This could be a team much like the Marlins a couple of years ago -- enough talent to build around but a couple of years out of the hunt.
Could be 90 losses with this team or 83 wins. I don't see much on either side of that.

 

[WvuDieHard]

Well you know John---I have to blame the front office for being in this position. Absolutely useless salaries that were paid to Dudwick, Bailey (not worth that amount of money), and Bruce. These are salaries that have not panned out in production per dollars. So now here you are with hefty salaries (lest not forget Votto) and no room to move because of bad decisions or gambles. What is really scary to me is the fact there is not any hitters in the minor league system (exception given to Winkler). Eventually, you are go going to have to cut bait and free up salaries to fill positions that aren't producing what we have paid for them.

 

[JohnU]

I don't know for sure if we can say for sure what a player is worth absent the outcome that we want -- the W.S. title. Which is pretty hard to achieve most years.
I think the Bailey contract was what the market was paying. I think we will be pleasantly surprised at his game this year. I have zero proof of that.
But I agree -- there aren't any hitters in the minors now who can move this team off a dime this summer. Yorman Rodriguez might be an outside exception. Winker probably won't surface till September.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Bruce had had 1 bad year, so I wouldn't toss him in that wasted money category yet. I don't even have a lot of heartburn over Bailey, who started looking like he gets it, and tossing two no-nos. I have a little problem with deciding to give guys like Madson and Broxton closers money with the purpose of putting Chapman in the rotation and never following through with it. Giving 2 year deals to discount players with a surprise partial season like Gomes, Hairston and Ludwick. Hannahan on a 2 year deal Im clueless what thought process was used there.

The Votto contract is the financial mass the rest of this roster orbits around. In not saying I wouldn't have done it, so I can't criticize the idea- but I get the impression Votto may not be willing or able to play under stress or less than perfect condition, and thats a problem. I'm concerned about shedding salary by trading 40% of the rotation and getting nothing in return that will help for three years. Making salary room for Cueto ? We'll see...he's worth about $180M in today's market. Chapman is going to get expensive soon, too. Leake can be a free agent in a year, and unfortunately, I think if Cueto can't be signed I think Leake will be, and that's a compromise. If Cueto is signed, I think Leake is history, and that puts more pressure on the farm, where all better answers should be anyway.

I'm not sure Walt is much of a farmer.