THE TRADES THREAD

[JohnU]

Latos for a young starter and a catcher.
Simon for a shortstop and a pitcher.

I would not have drawn it up any better than that.

The pitcher, some kid named DeScalcify or something, is penciled in already as a rotation guy.
Odd, but it suggests Price was heavily involved in the decision. If not, that's bizarre.

Wallach, the catcher, is 22, not ready ...but he lets Barnhart join the Show. Could be Pena is next to go, would save a little cash there.

Trading Simon for a middle infielder was predictable.
I know nothing of the other young pitcher.

The reported salary relief will go to signing Cueto, I'd guess. They will get that done.

I think Winker will be our O.D. left fielder.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Well, the Redsox traded Cespedes for Porcello. I'd say he would have went for Latos, if not Simon...so, Walt might have done better to hep the offense this year. He wouldn't have helped cut the payroll though...so, that's whats up with the trades today. Is he making room for Cueto and /or Leake to be signed longer term ? Dunno...but interested to see the opening day roster, if the Reds are done dealing...if the season opened tomorrow, Yorman would be in LF, and the rotation might be Cueto & Leake(last year of cotract), Bailey (DL) Corcino, and who ??? Maybe they'll start Chapman and close Jumbo.

 

[JohnU]

Jumbo can close. No doubt about that. Does Chappy move up? I have not heard that he's in that discussion so if he is, he needed to be doing some winter-league work. I gamble he is still the closer. Price could have fixed that and didn't.
Looking at pitching overall, I think the notion that the Reds need 5 quality starters (or at least 4) ... to compete in that ballpark. Actually, they don't need great pitchers, they need pitchers who can get people to hit the ball on the ground.
How many ordinary guys shut down the Reds offense last year with a marginally decent sinker? Lots of them. Over the last 3 years, many of them.
Leake can be an ace if he doesn't pitch out over the plate.

That established, I think Price and his staff might be looking at a pitching staff that doesn't include the high-priced arms but the pitchers who can give the team 210 up to 240 innings of decent baseball.

That all relates to scoring runs and, of course, winning 40 games on the road.

Left field is the trouble spot and as Chico said on the other thread, why has it taken 7 years to find somebody? Well, Ludwick was supposed to be the guy. He wasn't. Back to Yorman or Skip and Flip and Winker, Dinker and Aoki.

If the left fielder didn't hit like our shortstop, I wouldn't care.

Reds could have gotten Cespedes, but apparently there was a reason why not.

Marlon Byrd is still out there. I hope all the folks who got wet undies about this guy can come forward and provide a reason why we need him.

 

[Redsfan1507]

If you've got to punt at a position, LF might be the one. That's been the Reds logic since Dunn, and before Dunn too, for a lot of years. There have been a few guys that did ok there for half a season...but too often, they signed that good half year to a 2 year deal, and law of averages and mediocre talent caught up to them.

LF wasn't the Reds problem all these years since Dunn...first the problem was lack of pitching and defense zero hustle, and a manager no one cared about. They wouldnt sign big contracts. That changed. No .300 hitter- bingo Votto. They had no CF or C. That changed. No 3b...then Frazier. Then they lost the sense of urgency. Change managers, then they get hurt.

Life is short, but envelope to win MLB is a wink of an eye. Maybe the best chance was the last one they blew. I still have hope, but logically, no way this team is remotely close to the Cardinals pound for pound, even if they don't sign another pitcher, which IMO, they will do. If they want Cole Hamels or Max Scherzer, they have the means to do so. They might not have to now. The Brewers can't pitch, the Pirates have 4 holes in the lineup, and the Cubs have 3 pitchers, 3 hitters and Theo Epstein's promise to do better. The Reds, lost 2 SP, have another in the DL, and didnt add a hitter....granted if Votto, Phillips and Bruce bounce back to 2-3 years ago, they'll play better. Not sure that's likely for BP, and maybe not Votto. Sign Cueto ? The Cubs are going to find out that a SP can't win without more runs than they give up, no matter what the ERA says.

I dunno what Walt is smoking, but he might want to share with his ticket holders.

 

[chico ruiz]

i thought of byrd as a second half of 2013 / playoffs low cost LF power boost, not a long term answer. he was going to be a free agent regardless. pirates got him because the mets wanted vic black. the reds didn't have anybody the mets wanted. or, more accurately, the reds were not deep enough in their farm system to have the ability to make the move. which, not so ironically, brings me back to the reds gm. please excuse the cross-threading.

i think you've missed my overall assessment of jocketty's body of work 1507. when i refer to prospects received from a trade for someone like latos, i would expect multiples. not 2, but 4. that's what the padres expected for him. so, if you're keeping score, the reds get desclafani and wallach for latos, grandal, alonso, boxberger, and volquez. the question is; who else could the reds have gotten back for any one of these players? i'm re-reading these names and i'm thinking probably a lot more than desclafani and wallach. salary dump? maybe. wally might have created some space for a free agent outfielder signing. he better be good and long term. here's another question we should all ask; why this sense of urgency now? this is a problem that a good exec sees coming and they get the most value back in advance of the inevitable. you could have put a fork in the reds by mid-august. they were done. well done. over done. a fork may not have penetrated the charred remains of that team. that might have been a good time to make a deal. don't you think reds fans?!??!!?

i could care less what the rumors were about krivsky. the same 'egocentric' labeling crap was said about friedman and maddon in 2006 & 2007, and that was one of the more favorable portrayals. they weren't remotely about just themselves, and they were allowed to flourish in a true small market environment allowing me to watch some of the best, and most exciting baseball, i have ever seen.
all those centricity's created a lot of small circles that overlapped into a much larger sphere that worked. i don't care about walt's perceived credibility among the baseball people who like him. and i don't know about the incestuous cincinnati gossip about krivsky that 1507 references. i do know that there is a lack of creativity in the reds organization. if you can be creative with 70 million, you can be creative with 125 million, keeping a constant eye on the future.

i guess this is, as you say, an 'OK' job by wally. by that logic, dusty did a 'ok' job. he also made some mistakes. but, he's gone. long gone. way gone. an 'ok' job, in upper management, will not produce a consistently competitive team year after year in 2015 and beyond. it's about the things wally could have done (that he did not do) 2-5 years ago that could have impacted the reds positively in 2015. baker's not to blame. votto's and phillip's contracts are not to blame. the injuries are not to blame. the reds have no depth, and that is only one person's fault. the fact still remains that the current core reds team is a krivsky creation. wally has done a few things, but mostly he has kept the water on boil.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Well Chico, I'm sure the Reds will do better when you are the GM. Until then though, he's the guy. If you remember, I said I thought Latos and Marshall were gross overpays at the time, so we agree there. Krivsky was unstable. I personally know people that worked in that organization, and they all sing the same song. The man was a mediocre advance scout way over his head. He had a better résumé for business than baseball. He said David Ortiz would never hit. That was enough of a clue for the Twins to recommend him for a promotion outside their team. This team has only won 4 titles, not including the one the Blacksox threw them, and they are still in the top few leaders in that category- winning it all, is rare. That's not Jocketty, that's baseball.

Whos the mystery LF bat and bullpen depth Jocketty says these trades open funds for ? Alex Rios anyone ?

The reason the Braves want to trade Justin Upton is the same reason they can't trade him, and don't want to re-sign him; both come with the condition of taking his hitless brother BJ, too. They just ate an Uggla contract, and 3/4 of their young SP pitching plans are injured. The Dodgers effectively traded Kemp, Hanley and Gordon for Rollins, Kendrick, and Grandal, and tossed in $25M to boot. Billy Beane can't even recognize his players without a program. The Phillies are a mess. The Mets thought Bernie Madhoff and Jason Bay were good investments. Loria has spent half the Federal Deficit and Marlins fans (if there are any) still hate him. The Yankees are the Lakers of baseball. The Whitesox and Cubs think they can contend.
So, Walt Jocketty isn't the worst quite yet, but he's going to have that opportunity. Wayne Krivsky is still asking for another chance. Again. I won't miss him any more than the Nationals will miss Jim Bowden.

You know who I miss ? Joe Nuxhall.

 

[JohnU]

I think the deal with GMs now is that the game really isn't theirs to play anymore. Forty years ago, a GM could make any old deal so long as he and a couple of others could stay sober enough to find the 19th tee.

Everything is leveraged now against a TV contract. Do you trade Cueto now to play for 2017, because the GM has limited control over that. If Cueto drags him out till December 2015, and decides to go elsewhere, does Walt say he should have known that and dumped him?

The agents and the sponsors control the rosters now, unless the guy is still under "team control," which means we can screw Billy Hamilton by letting him be the most exciting player in baseball for $500,000.

And Miguel Montero can get a $70 million contract to catch baseballs most of the time. So who do you trade? Well, you trade the guy you can control and you trade FOR the guy you can control. Then you spend the rest of the time trading off the guys who cost you too much money.

And meanwhile, hopefully the fans will be happy that Mat Latos might not win the C.Y. award next year.

But I think that the Reds did not make a deal in August last year was linked to a couple of things -- namely I don't think Price, and by extension, Walt, was inclined to want to unload his top players to contenders. I get it on that level but I don't know if the Reds could have gotten anybody back who they couldn't get this week. Latos was generally hurt last year and was effectively damaged goods.

As well, the fire-sale approach to the trade deadline is nearing a thing of the past. If you're 8 back with 80 to play, you can still make the playoffs.

 

[Redsfan1507]

In the Latos trade, Walt is probably blowing smoke up our ass about DeSlafani being in the rotation in 2015, unless he's turning this into an expansion team. The Guy is Mike Leake-ish, but whoever drafted him aptly waited to draft a ho-hum velocity high flyball rate guy until the 6th round (Leake was a #1). His minors stats aren't bad, but he still gave up a lot of hits, and a fair amount of HR per IP. Wallach- the son of former MLB'er Tim, and a catcher, has good bloodlines and stats look good, albeit in A ball. He's 22, so maybe he was a college player ? To me, this is trade deadline value at best for Latos...Maybe his arm has really been butchered by Dr. Quackcheck, but he does have to clear medicals to be traded...if they ask....Chico's man Krivsky got duped by Bowden in the Majewski deal, and by Seattle in the Guardado deal, the same month, because he was ignorant to the fact a team has to ASK for medical reports to get them in a trade. He asked their agents how their arms were. Nice.

Similar value for Simon, suprisingly. Suarez might take Cozart's job, but probably won't wow anyone doing it. Crawford is a pitcher that will get a promotion to AA next year.

I don't buy into Walt saying the payroll cut was to make room for LF and bullpen help. He did say he's trying to sign Cueto, but suggested it might not be possible...If he can't sign Cueto or Leake either, and dumps them for similar value, it isn't going to matter who's playing LF or in the bullpen.

This looks like fire sale to me, at face value.

 

[chico ruiz]

my posts are almost exclusively about the job jocketty has done. i'm not advocating bringing krivsky back 1507. you miss my point. krivsky may very well have been over his head in deep water. but, for a guy who had trouble assessing talent he, and o'brien, sure did have some good draft classes. those draft classes (not all first rounders), and signings, are the cincinnati reds right now. but, and much more importantly, it's about the job wally is doing right now, and what he was doing five years ago that has led to this moment in reds history. if you're a reds fan, and understand the way the business side of baseball works in 2014, you can not be OK with walt's lack of foresight and vision. anyone who follows baseball, including the posters on this board, knew this was coming two years ago. the rays saw it coming with matt garza. they traded him to the cubs for chris archer, hak-ju lee, robinson chirinos, sam fuld, and brandon guyer. the royals saw it coming with greinke. and got cain, escobar, odorizzi, and jeffress. you don't have to be a royals fan to know who lorenzo cain is now. the rays again saw it coming with james shields. they packaged him with wade davis for leonard, montgomery, odorizzi, and wil myers. how my original post could devolve into a weird krivsky v. jocketty pissing contest is beyond me, and was certainly not my intention. but, the game evolves. some are capable of evolving with it. some are not. why was walt jettisoned from st. louis? because there was a new shift of more emphasis, in baseball operations on statistical analysis, and wally was incapable -or unwilling- to adapt, incorporate, or otherwise utilize the information. another part of wally's undoing with dewitt was the failure of the cards farm system to develop any pitchers in a decade and only two frontline players. does any of this sound familiar? i remember, almost at the same moment, how pundits were bemoaning the pirates hiring of neal huntington. no reason to believe it isn't going to be the same losing business as usual after frank coonelly passed over a half-dozen candidates with proven track records, in scouting and player development, to hire huntington, they said. i think they called him a new-wave stat practitioner crackpot. the irony of all this is, of course, it wasn't a paradigm shift. baseball really hadn't changed much. it was, and is, simply a tool to help teams win. adapt or die.

 

[JohnU]

Good points, chico.
All good points.

I do think the Reds took a stab at 'win it all now' in 2012 and were still treading that path in '13. Maybe as well last year until it became evident they couldn't ... by then, not much could be done but wait it out and re-tool.

I am liking these two trades for what they are worth. Could they have been better? The pundits and the GMs all gathered and said there is a glut of pitching and it's not worth as much. My, what lies we are inclined to believe after watching some of our "26th man" applications in the last few years.

I agree that the Descalafina prediction is based on a comment NOT made by the guy who really matters -- Bryan Price, who has been strangely ignored by everyone.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Jocketty was let go in St.Louis because they wanted him to relinquish the minor league side of the job- which as Chico pointed out, wasn't his strong suit. Plus, there was a younger guy with more longevity ready for the job. The Cards have done fine w/o Walt.

I sure would have done some things different, but of course I don't know all the particulars either. For all the increase in TV revenue, some things never change. Teams are at least acting like they are paying more attention to payroll more now than ever, even though some player contracts are still huge. The Dodgers spent like drunken lottery winners and now are on a diet- albeit one with a lot more dollars than most.

I'm a huge, farm first guy. IMO, all bad things in MLB could have been better with a stronger minor league system. Unfortunately, ametuer scouts and minor league instructors are the lowest paid full time guys in the organization. Modern metrics are out there, but they still require getting dirt on a uni to produce a value player. Neither is utilized to adequate results, but some teams seem to do better than others, and I'm not sure in my nearly 50 years of paying attention, the Reds have ever maintained longer than about 5-6 year runs at looking like they have a worthy system. It isn't new. Lately, I think they're getting better results out of the DR, but so are a lot of other teams.

Contractually speaking, who you hitch a 5 year deal with is important I think, and an issue that fans rarely really understand, myself included. I do know if Votto had went in trade for 4 no-names or allowed to walk as a FA after his MVP year, we'd have been spouting Marlins and (previous) Pirates venom at the Reds at the time...Hindsight is closer to 20:20 a few years later. I'm not sure if this is relative, but the Reds might have been at a similar crossroads in 1971 and 1981...with decidedly different near term results. Not sure if we have the right personnel in the front office or on the field to determine which way this team is heading yet.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I remember the Angels getting Bartolo Colon- their "last piece of the puzzle" (not) and giving up some no names- Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and some guy named Cliff Lee, I believe. I'm hoping for one of those coming along for the Reds, but not holding my breath.

 

[Redsfan1507]

...and Sizemore was the one they held onto longest. Go figure. Are the guys that made those deals still in MLB ? If you're right once in a while, you can probably ride it for a good career of mostly bad decisions.

 

[JohnU]

My alltime building job for the Reds started in the fall of 1960 when they dealt Roy McMillan to the Braves for Juan Pizarro and Joey Jay, then flipped Pizarro to the Sox for Gene Freese. It was just the start but it was sheer genius at the expense of a lot of irate fans.
Arguably the BRM was a pretty heavy shadow on that team, since by 1964 with Rose and Perez in there, they were almost winners. By 1966, the die was cast.

Looking back at Reds teams, I'd say they have done better with their farm system than the baseball world is inclined to believe. Since 2007, most years have produced one farmhand who is contributing.

If I had to choose which position I'd load up on, it would be catchers. The more the better. Most of them can be taught to play corner infield and many are still quick enough to play LF. The better ones can be taught to pitch. All of them are better coaches than most of the idiots I've seen in the Reds dugout.

Corky Miller should get his own statue.

 

[Redsfan1507]

As a former hack catcher and forced to be better coach, I appreciate that remark.

Don't honor Corky too much though...Corky's wife deserves the statue for putting up with that minor league bullschidt for 15 years. His kids may think he's the most selfish part time dad in the world. His joints already hate him, and the insurance stops right after the last check. Just saying.

I have to disagree, IMO, the business of baseball has always been about pitching- of which catching has an impact, but P is the only position that has direct impact performance on every pitch. It's accurate to say that the best hitters make outs 70% of the time, but pitchers don't really acknowledge that- their mistakes are usually magnified by hitters. Offense sells tickets, but pitching and defense wins games. You might hit over bad defense, but you never have enough pitching before it's over.

It's why I cringe at the Reds trading established quality pitching...especially for single A players, 1 snap away from being a bartender with a cool what if story. ALL players get hurt. It's a matter of when, how bad, and how they can adjust afterward- especially pitchers and catchers with arm injuries. "recovery"for them is largely a myth...Most can't really adjust. Not long, anyway. A hitter with a meniscus or even an ACL can still hit and play a year later- unless he's a speed and range dependent player. Might have to adjust and stop pulling for power, but it doesn't prevent them from getting to the ball ( at the plate). So, IMO, the results of last season's Reds knee injuries speak to Joey Votto being a pussy, a malingerer, a head case, or a combo, while Jay Bruce is just stubborn about adjusting, or a moron that can't adjust...but both should have been able to hit more last year. "Significant discomfort" IS baseball after an injury, not reason to sit down and continue to atrophy.. there is a difference in pain and injury with knees. Shoulders or eyes for a hitter, or a "short arm" injury for a throwing player, different story. If they are gone, it's usually over.

Maybe Latos elbow still isn't right. Simon's 2nd half might have proved he wasn't really the rubber arm he was thought to be. The only thing worse than a sore armed pitcher is owing him $12 M. The only thing worse than that, is not having one as good to replace him.

You never know. When Homer Bailey was supposed to be the Reds Next Big Thing, some kid named Cueto snuck in and stole his role. Maybe Walt has another unknown ace up his sleeve. Maybe he's desperate enough to start Chapman. Maybe he's just a drowning man grasping at straws and blowing smoke.

I know this- there isn't a LF or situational reliever alive that can overcome 6 runs in the 2nd inning by a bad SP, very often. If he doesn't have 2 pitchers to do what they hired Latos and Simon to do, no LF making less than they did, that is available today, is going to make up the difference. I'd rather say I was saving Cueto money and waiting on Winkler.

 

[JohnU]

True about pitching but guys like Bench made a lot of guys look good. I think Mesoraco has brought an unexpectedly strong game to the Reds after we thought it was lost in the Hanigan trade.
If you don't have an MLB quality catcher, you just get beaten up on defense.
I cite Molina, dammit ... and Jorge Posada.
Still, a strong middle infield, decent coverage by outfielders to balls in the gap, or down the lines, smart coaching ... all that contributes.
I guess my comment about signing a lot of catchers is that no matter which franchise you see, they almost always need a catcher somewhere along the way. As many as you have, they are like utility infielders at the trade deadline. Somebody always wants one.

 

[eburg5000]

Been working a lot. I don't know what to think of these trades. 2 pitchers, a single A catcher, and a young short stop with about half a year of experience in the bigs. I guess if they can sign Cueto it might be worth it. But I sure would have liked to see us get an outfielder in all that.

 

[chico ruiz]

being born in 1960, i only remember those moves from my insane amount of reading and studying of reds baseball. i do remember my dad and grandpa speaking very fondly of those late 50's and early 60's reds ball clubs. they always referred to them as 'ball clubs', not teams. i still love that, and i couldn't tell you why exactly. something warm and good in my memory banks about sitting at the breakfast table, when my grandparents visited, and listening to them talk baseball as they poured over the standings and box scores in the morning paper. for awhile there i think my dad got the enquirer in the morning, and the post in the afternoon for the late box scores. it was important how the reds were doing. i miss those days. i really do. i'm not nostalgic about it, but i do remember fondly that inner-city connection with the reds. the radio was always tuned to the reds. my dad was a al Schottelkotte / jack moran news watcher at night. if i could stay awake, it felt like a lifetime waiting for the regular news portion of the show to get to jack's report. laying on that throw rug, in front of that tv, as my dad threw his stinky socks at me from a hard days work, in a unairconditioned college hill apartment, was heaven to me. thanks again johnu. you reminded me what this great game is really all about.

 

[JohnU]

I was 14 in 1961, or ... old enough to stay awake and listen to the games if I wanted.
The problem was that the games on the West Coast didn't start until very late. One particular night, the Reds were in LA playing a twi-night doubleheader. I was in bed, with my transistor radio on, listening away ... the Reds were in first place and had just gotten there. To beat the Dodgers was next to difficult. We were hoping for a split.
I fell asleep around the 5th inning of the first game (hot summer night) and woke up to static around 3 in the morning. No idea who had won what.
The morning paper didn't have the scores because the early deadline paper we got in Indiana went to press too early. Morning passed. Nobody who cared was around... they were all at work. Anyone who was around ... might as well ask the dog.
Around noon, the Ruth Lyons show came on and everyone was just going nuts.
Reds had won both games -- both by shutout. TWO SHUTOUTS.
It just never had to get any better than that.

 

[chico ruiz]

that's a great story john. my dad spoke highly of bob purkey as he would sometimes recall that team.
i believe he won some pivotal games for the reds between 58 & 64. just considering that
gil hodges and duke snider were still playing for that dodger team in '61' amazes me. there is a lot of overlap (of careers) that we -at least i do- tend to forget. to me, it's part of what makes baseball, and it's history, so fascinating.

i have a heart warming story. corny, i know, but it always makes me feel good when i think about my grandfather. my dad loved ted williams. thought he walked on water when he was a young baseball fan. my dad had a birthday coming up and my grandpa bought a couple tickets for red sox v. white sox @ comiskey and drove them up there from dayton to see williams play. teddy hit a home run and my dad's baseball life -up to that time and age- was complete. i always loved that story. i know it was just a baseball game, but it makes me feel blessed to be a member of my family. grandpa could have just as easily not done that, and relaxed at home on his day off. this game connects us.