The Running Back Trend and How it Affects Fantasy Football

[Chef99]

So, we all pretty much have seen that the days of a stud running back dominating games are out. At least for now.

Agree? Disagree?

Either way, what's your strategy in this Bold New Fantasy World?

 

[eaglesnut]

Two opposite thoughts:

1) Gotta get a real RB early

2) Lots of RBs getting work every week, might be able to get by with 4 guys outside the top 30 if you play the right matchups

 

[MilkSpiller22]

So, we all pretty much have seen that the days of a stud running back dominating games are out. At least for now.

Agree? Disagree?

Either way, what's your strategy in this Bold New Fantasy World?

idk... but there is also the missing piece to the trend where BAD teams that don't have a back, are also not going to pay for a back... which hurts the running back trend even more...

I don't see an easy solution...

not sure if it affects fantasy at all other than on draft day!!!

 

[Shanemansj13]

So, we all pretty much have seen that the days of a stud running back dominating games are out. At least for now.

Agree? Disagree?

Either way, what's your strategy in this Bold New Fantasy World?

RB’s on rookie deals, if they become a star-they get one more contract. I’m not sure how this affects fantasy value for RB’s. Still a mixed bag. Still a lot of studs out there. Guys will leave and other backs will take over the workload…they just need the opportunity.
Ex: Dallas - Pollard has his opportunity with Zeke out.
NE - Stevenson looks to take a big workload. They sign Zeke.
Some teams will depend on a “workhorse”.

I do agree for the most part, teams will depend on a number of ball carriers. Has that changed though?

 

[Chef99]

The dominoes are beginning to tumble.

Zeke, Dalvin, and Kareem is sure to be next.

Fournette not far behind?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

So, we all pretty much have seen that the days of a stud running back dominating games are out. At least for now.

Agree? Disagree?

Either way, what's your strategy in this Bold New Fantasy World?

you just grab your stud RB in the 2nd round instead of the 1st round these days

 

[broncosmitty]

you just grab your stud RB in the 2nd round instead of the 1st round these days

Picking 11th in my money league and seriously thinking about waiting till the 3rd or 4th for a back.

Also depends on who falls to 11.

 

[Chef99]

you just grab your stud RB in the 2nd round instead of the 1st round these days

But there's the thing; who's the stud RB anymore?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

But there's the thing; who's the stud RB anymore?

Nice try, but you'll have to wait until after my drafts before I give you all the secrets

 

[ANGELAKERAMS]

There are far less stud RB’s available because so many teams deploy a RBBC approach.

As for draft strategy, it really depends on how your league is set up.

Both my leagues deploy the same setup.

Start: (1) QB, (1) RB (3) WR’s, (1) TE, (1) Flex RB/WR and (1) Flex RB/WR/TE

This format was adjusted a couple years ago with so many teams going to the RBBC approach and more of a passing league.

So, a team can start (3) RB’s and (3) WR’s if they have 3 good RB’s, a team can go (2) RB’s and (4) WR’s, (1) RB and ((5) WR’s.

A team can also choose to start (2) TE’s if they have 2 good ones in place of a RB or WR flex.

So, draft strategies change based on draft position and the board as the draft progresses.

But it gives every team flexibility to adapt to the changing league and choose their own approach vs leagues where you have to start a specific number of RB’s in a diminishing productive RB pool.

 

[TREFF]

So, we all pretty much have seen that the days of a stud running back dominating games are out. At least for now.

Agree? Disagree?

Either way, what's your strategy in this Bold New Fantasy World?

Agree...mostly. still some, I think there will always be some.

It's wrong, and ridiculous seeing as there's only 5-10 QB's how can take a team and drag them into the playoffs, every other one of the 25 or so teams need a strong run game to make games competitive, but eventually that'll come around. When the Dolphins and Niners of the league continue going through QB's like their going out of style, because theirs keep getting blasted and injured with no running game, no decent pass pro on the backfield, they'll come around (Niners did, paid up big time for CMAC, too bad it was too late). But for now, it is what it is, and it's the current trend.

My strategy? Entirely depends upon my draft position and how it falls. If I'm at the top, I'm grabbing one of those precious few RB's who are still studs. If I'm at the back end, I'm likely planning on a WR heavy, possibly 'zero RB' strategy, but prepared to jump on anyone making the mistake of letting a stud slip by.


No matter what the trend of the league towards RB's is, as long as you have to start 2, those few who you can rely on, are still the gold standard in value. The rarer they become, the more value they hold.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Nice try, but you'll have to wait until after my drafts before I give you all the secrets

I need answers ol' Wise one!

Here. just whisper it to me. I wont tell anyone else I promise.

 

[averagejoe]

I feel that fantasy SCORING and rosters should be adjusted to keep up with the way NFL teams are using players.

ridiculous seeing as there's only 5-10 QB's how can take a team and drag them into the playoffs

Think it starts here at QB.
Reduce passing TD scoring to 3 (or even 2) but reward QB rating.
Perhaps even negative scoring for a low QB rating.
Reward completed passes, perhaps at half a point.
QB may still see some high fantasy numbers, but their scoring will be more reflective of their daily performance.

There are far less stud RB’s available because so many teams deploy a RBBC approach.

This can be fixed by scoring rushing attempts. Half a point.
This will bring up the value of starting RB because touches will be rewarded.

Scoring changes like this can level out the QB, RB and WR.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I feel that fantasy SCORING and rosters should be adjusted to keep up with the way NFL teams are using players.


Think it starts here at QB.
Reduce passing TD scoring to 3 (or even 2) but reward QB rating.
Perhaps even negative scoring for a low QB rating.
Reward completed passes, perhaps at half a point.
QB may still see some high fantasy numbers, but their scoring will be more reflective of their daily performance.


This can be fixed by scoring rushing attempts. Half a point.
This will bring up the value of starting RB because touches will be rewarded.

Scoring changes like this can level out the QB, RB and WR.

personally... i am not a big fan of full point PPR... i like half point PPR, and then do half point for first down... i think that solves everything... including what you are now trying to solve...

 

[averagejoe]

do half point for first down...

But which position is more prone to get a first down?
If teams find themselves in a 3rd down situation, it's a passing down. RB might not be the first option? Worth investigating to see which position gets the majority of first downs.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

But which position is more prone to get a first down?
If teams find themselves in a 3rd down situation, it's a passing down. RB might not be the first option? Worth investigating to see which position gets the majority of first downs.

depends on what the point of the stat correcting, is it to make the RBs equal to WRs, or is it to make the volume backs as important as the receiving backs???

fantasy wise, arent RBs per game still scoring more than WRs, since RBs own more of the volume than any single WR... The best WRs rarely get 10 or more touches.... the RB2 on most teams average more than 10 touches.... so... do we need to correct?? or is this already correcting it for fantasy??

 

[averagejoe]

depends on what the point of the stat correcting, is it to make the RBs equal to WRs, or is it to make the volume backs as important as the receiving backs???

fantasy wise, arent RBs per game still scoring more than WRs, since RBs own more of the volume than any single WR... The best WRs rarely get 10 or more touches.... the RB2 on most teams average more than 10 touches.... so... do we need to correct?? or is this already correcting it for fantasy??

I will agree that RB has the potential to score more than WR. However if you have a flex spot, is an owner more likely to plug in a RB or a WR?
The yin and yang is that the RB could get more, but in PPR, if a WR just catches 5 or 6 passes, that may be more incentive to start a WR.
The likelihood of a RB rushing for 50 or 60 yards is low in the late scenario.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I will agree that RB has the potential to score more than WR. However if you have a flex spot, is an owner more likely to plug in a RB or a WR?
The yin and yang is that the RB could get more, but in PPR, if a WR just catches 5 or 6 passes, that may be more incentive to start a WR.
The likelihood of a RB rushing for 50 or 60 yards is low in the late scenario.

except PPR points are given to RBs too, if they catch balls... But that is back to why i like first downs....

 

[TREFF]

Given that ppr was only ever a thing to bring value to wr's in the previously RB dominated league, makes some sense to ditch ppr and go to point per rush attempt today

 

[SmokingMonkey]

makes some sense to ditch ppr and go to point per rush attempt today

Josh Jacobs would've outscored Mahomes by 180pts in that format