The Positives thread

[bengaldoug]

We need the Brewers to come up with one tonight, to have a decent shot....

 

[Redsfan1507]

I'll feel better if the playoff roster rids the Reds of Reynolds, Duke and Hannahan. IMO, the 3 most dangerous threats to the Reds playing themselves into distaster.

 

[JohnU]

Reds won't likely win out and the Nats likely won't sweep anybody. Neither will the Cubs.
The realistic cut here is for Cincy to hope Atlanta gets best record.
I think the Reds stand a chance in a best of 5 there. Against the Birds, I think Reds can handle them in 7 games but not 5.
If the Dodgers meet the Reds, it's hard to tell.

 

[Ryanballa]

Cardinals lost tonight to the Brewers. So with 6 games left and going into the last week of the regular season, we stand 2 games back and tied for 2nd. Our Reds can still take the division, just need the Cardinals to slip up a bit. GO REDS!

 

[WvuDieHard]

Reds can still take the division or at least tie for it. Cards go 3-3 and the Reds win out, Reds win the Division. Anything above .500 for the Cards and they lock it up. No slip up for the Reds now. Must play every game like it is the 7th game of a playoff. That means Dustmop needs to leave Izaturis, Hannahan, and Derick Robinson on the goddamn bench. It is nice to be in this situation but you just know Dustmop is lurching in the wings to fuck a game a up for ya. Mark my words and watch over the next 2 weeks for a DustMop brain cramp that changes a game. He is due for one about every 10 days. It is kinda like a woman's minstral cycle, you know its coming but you are not certain which day.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Im a Dusty paranoid too. It's probably caused me to become overly attentive to his moves, but on the flip side, one would think that a savvy guy like Jocketty would have similar shell shock. I think it's unlikely the Reds win out, or the Cards dive. I can't fathom why, but I expect Reynolds to pitch another game, and who knows who Dusty will throw out against the Mets. The positive is, the Reds have shown they can beat the Pirates.

 

[WvuDieHard]

QUOTE=Redsfan1507;3665696]Im a Dusty paranoid too. It's probably caused me to become overly attentive to his moves, but on the flip side, one would think that a savvy guy like Jocketty would have similar shell shock. I think it's unlikely the Reds win out, or the Cards dive. I can't fathom why, but I expect Reynolds to pitch another game, and who knows who Dusty will throw out against the Mets. The positive is, the Reds have shown they can beat the Pirates.[/QUOTE]

Yes that is the positive Redsfan1507. The "knowns" at this point after 156 games are 1) The Reds can beat the Pirates 2) The Reds Struggle with the Cards 3) Billy Hamilton makes the Reds a better team when he is in the lineup 4) starting pitching must go 7/8 innings in a game for the Reds as the middle relief and the set up guys are not lock down pitchers, infact, they cen be shakey and worrisome in a playoff or playoff series and 5) Dustmop is prone to mistakes, sometimes subtle and sometimes just pure senility all created by stubborness. Dustmop has a "set in his ways mentality" and he ain't gonna change. Yet on the bright side, and with a little luck, the Reds could win this thing or at least be playing Boston for rematch of the 1975 World Series. Who knows what the end result will be but I can assure you the mistakes by players and Coaches will be magnified now and have more devestating consequences.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The best positive is truly, that with a week to go, Reds fans are still taking about the next game, the next series, and post season.

Most teams aren't in that position, and over the long history of the Reds, it's pretty rare.

It's a beautiful day in SW Ohio today. I am reminded that Life is good, and very brief. I have been very lucky, and a little aggravation or difficulty just makes it easier to recognize the good stuff. We should try to appreciate that more, for sure.

 

[bengaldoug]

The best positive is truly, that with a week to go, Reds fans are still taking about the next game, the next series, and post season.

Most teams aren't in that position, and over the long history of the Reds, it's pretty rare.

It's a beautiful day in SW Ohio today. I am reminded that Life is good, and very brief. I have been very lucky, and a little aggravation or difficulty just makes it easier to recognize the good stuff. We should try to appreciate that more, for sure.

Absolutely. The Friday night miracle plus the Bengals' miracle comeback yesterday should bring out the homer in all of us.

 

[JohnU]

One of my teams has already won a championship this year, so I can endure anything else that happens -- provided the WLB's don't win the W.S.

 

[WvuDieHard]

Lets face it--the WLB's play sound baseball and rarely to you see any chinks in the armor. In a short series, that is a problem for the Reds because they can't do that. Couple that with DustraMetrics and you need LUCK to advance.

 

[JohnU]

It's hard to be positive after watching Nefi Soto hit again tonight.
The guy hasn't had a ground ball yet, but Billy Hamilton, who could reach first base on a ground ball that hit the grass twice, sat on the bench.

 

[WvuDieHard]

Another DustMop act of stubbornness JohnU. Hard to understand why the most electrifying player in the majors right now can't get on the field. DustMop needs to be let go after this season but you wont see it. If the Reds tried to fire DustMop, you would have more anti-racist groups surrounding GABP than the Indians who surrounded Custer on his last stand. Just a very bad situation for this franchise.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Dusty is one if the more stubborn guys in MLB, and his tenure while being that way reinforces his posture. He's big on players paying "dues" before they get PT, odd...since he didnt pay any managerial dues before being handed a MLB managers job. He tends to stick with veterans over rookies, regardless of their talent ceiling. Jocketty has had to make roster changes to insure a change before, and may have to yet again. We'll know by the weekend what the playoff roster is.

Im overly critical of Dusty, but I'm a diametrically opposed to Dusty guy from a baseball philosophy perspective. There are lots of ways to win, and lots of ways to lose. If nothing else, Dusty is predictable, and his players should know by now they have to get 2 out hits, and hit homers, and constantly swim uphill to win. Like it or not, Joey Votto, BP, Choo and Bruce are going to have to carry this team. Dusty will continue to put likely outs between them, play long odds situational defense, and make baserunning mistakes. He'll expect borderline MLB pitchers to get opposite handed hitters out, and back of the rotation pitchers to best top of the rotation pitchers...and he'll keep his job. It is what it is.

 

[Beggs]

Im overly critical of Dusty, but I'm a diametrically opposed to Dusty guy from a baseball philosophy perspective. There are lots of ways to win, and lots of ways to lose. If nothing else, Dusty is predictable, and his players should know by now they have to get 2 out hits, and hit homers, and constantly swim uphill to win. Like it or not, Joey Votto, BP, Choo and Bruce are going to have to carry this team. Dusty will continue to put likely outs between them, play long odds situational defense, and make baserunning mistakes. He'll expect borderline MLB pitchers to get opposite handed hitters out, and back of the rotation pitchers to best top of the rotation pitchers...and he'll keep his job. It is what it is.

And why shouldnt they be depending on two out hits? Here is a list of the teams who are behind the reds in 2 out batting average:

Yankees
Brewers
Cubs
Twins
Astros
Marlins

Besides the yanks, all those teams are worst or second worst in their division. Those teams have an average record of 65-92.

The reds are only 3 homeruns above the league average, so its obvious we don't depend on the homerun.
In 2012, only 8 above the league average.
2011, 31 above league average
2010, 34 above league average

So as you can see, that can no longer be an argument.

What I find to be amazing, is the cardinals are hitting .329 with RISP, 70 points higher than us, and we still had a chance to catch them.

 

[navamind]

Homer Bailey's shown a lot of improvement over the last two seasons. It took him a while, but better late than never.

2012-13:
3.54 ERA, 113 ERA+, 412 IP, 383 hits allowed (8.4 H/9), 45 HR allowed (1.0 HR/9), 102 BB (2.2 BB/9), 364 K (8.0 K/9), 1.18 WHIP, 6.0 bWAR in 64 games

His K/BB has improved every year since breaking into the majors and he posted his best FIP (3.19) and xFIP (3.26) this year. I think he'll emerge as one of the best pitchers in the NL next year.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I'm not opposed to 2 out hits- but recognize the MLB average with 2 outs is a LOT less than the MLB batting average as a whole. I love HR's...but realize that other than triples or triple plays or no hitters, they are among the rarer of things that happen . Im more a fan of routinely scoring other ways, too...and it's not just a bunt, although with a leadoff double, in a close game late, I'd do it a lot more often than Dusty, but this team doesn't TRY to advance on productive outs that much- other than pitchers sac attempts. They don't appear to be looking to hit behind the runner much. They swing at too many early count breaking balls down to be attempting a sac fly, and they sure run the based badly for a team that starves for runs sometimes.

The Cardinals clutch hitting stats beg for adjustment back toward the norm over time, but in doing it so much, they have to understand the pitch selection and plate philosophy of getting a better chance to succeed than teams that have no such intention.

Take a look at the teams with most 1 run desisions, and extra inning games... The Reds are the rare team in the playoffs. This may speak to a lot of things that can be blamed or credited for luck, but I tend to believe that better teams win more in 9, and win more by more than 1 run, and it's not because they all hit .350 or have 3 HR a game. They make less mistakes, and take better advantage of others mistakes. The Reds are among the best in D, pitching and as pointed out above, are respectable in lots if offensive stats.

So what is the difference ?

I contend much is the mistakes that don't get recorded that cause the descrepancy. The Reds are a lower baseball IQ team than most playoff teams. That doesn't speak to talent as much as under utilizing it, IMO.

This team has plenty of talent.

 

[BigDDude]

Because it can't be all positive, all the time........

Billy Hamilton experiences his first caught stealing today....

 

[Redsfan1507]

Then it was a perfect day for the Reds. Izturis got a start, and a hit, one-fourth of the Reds offense today...of course 25% of 4 hits and no runs against the Mets overwhelming and overpowering pitching should make the Reds well earned day off tomorrow, before having to sweep the Pirates to go to a tiebreaker for home field in the one game playoff ( as close to not making the playoffs as is possible), a welcome break.

This team couldn't have less focus or less energy than they've shown in every series other than against St.L, LA and the Lastros in the last 7 series- could they ? Rockies, Brewers, Cubs and Mets...should have won the division on this late season schedule gift, but turns out, the Reds can play to any teams level. At least I hope that's true when playing good teams too.

The good news is, Dusty's miracle finish is all set up...the Reds are going to have the longest odds "opportunity" in post season. From play-in to World Champs...all it takes is to win a one game roadie, and 3 consecutive levels of post season series victories, against the best teams in MLB.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The two out RISP topic has been a point of discussion a few times this year. Personally I've always viewed a RISP with two outs the same way I view the 1 and 1 free throw situation in college basketball. Make the first one and you get a point and another opportunity to score another point. Miss and the other teams usually gets the ball. Get a hit to score a run and most likely get another opportunity to score another run. Get out and the opportunity shows up in the LOB column in the box score.

Keep the line moving, that's why the Cards seem to always be putting up crooked numbers, they don't stop at two outs.

The Reds are second in the NL in runs scored with less than two outs. They're 11th in runs scored with two outs and 9th in AB's with two outs. The Reds don't need less opportunities with two outs, they need more. You get more by taking advantage the first time. You have to have churn to score consistently.

Ever see a Championship team that consistently misses the front end of one and one's? Probably not.

IMO, if the Reds don't hit with two outs in the Post Season, they won't win one either.