The NFL's top 25 breakout 'prospects' for 2017 - ESPN Insider

[iowajerms]

*** Article attached as .PDF file

NFL's top 25 'prospects' who could break out
By Rivers McCown

1. Tyreek Hill, WR - KC
2. Austin Hooper, TE - ATL
3. Javon Hargrave, DT - PIT
4. Brett Hundley, QB - GB
5. Elandon Roberts, LB - NE
6. CJ Posise, RB - SEA
7. Michael Pierce, DE - BAL
8. Andrew Billings, DT - CIN
9. Nick Vigil, LB - CIN
10. Owamagbe Odighizuwa, EDGE - NYG

11. Jonathan Bullard, DT - CHI
12. Terrance Mitchell, CB - KC
13. Paul Perkins, RB - NYG
14. Parker Ehinger, G - KC
15. DJ Reader, DT - HOU
16. PJ Williams, CB - NO
17. AJ Derby, TE - DEN
18. Justin Simmons, S - DEN
19. Miles Killebrew, S - DET
20. BJ Finny, G/C - PIT

21. Cody Kessler, QB - CLE
22. Kenneth Dixon, RB - BAL
23. Tyler Higbee, TE - LAR
24. Rashard Higgins, WR - CLE
25. AJ McCarron, QB - CIN

Honorable Mention

Vernon Adams, QB - Montreal
Ronald Blair, EDGE - SF
Kendall Fuller, CB - WAS
Roger Lewis, WR - NYG
Cardale Jones, QB - LAC
Robert Kelley, RB - WAS
Dean Lowry, EDGE - GB
Jalen Richard, RB - OAK
Dwayne Washington, RB - DET
Christian Westerman, G - CIN

 

[iowajerms]

Methodology


This is the 11th anniversary of the list. We're still relying on the same things we always do: scouting, statistics, measurables, context, expected role and what we hear from other sources. The goal is to bring your attention to players who are still developing in their second and third seasons, even after the draftniks have forgotten them. It's important to note that this list is not strictly about fantasy football (otherwise, there wouldn't be offensive linemen on it) and it's about career potential, not just the 2017 season (otherwise, there wouldn't be backup quarterbacks on it).

Here's our full criteria:

• Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent
• Entered the NFL between 2014 and 2016
• Fewer than 500 career offensive or defensive snaps
• Have not signed a contract extension (players who have bounced around the league looking for the right spot, however, still qualify for the list)
• Age 26 or younger in 2017

You'll see a number of references to Football Outsiders stats on our list, in particular DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which takes every play and compares its success to the NFL average based on situation and opponent, and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), which gives total value by comparing efficiency on each play to a replacement-level player. You can read more about those and other FO stats on this page. Many of the other stats come from Sports Info Solutions and can be found in our new book, Football Outsiders Almanac 2017.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Tyreek Hill #1

Most famous for being involved in one of the NFL's myriad domestic violence cases, Hill was drafted in the fifth round by the Chiefs because he's simply too fast to ignore. Oklahoma State dismissed him from the team after he was arrested for reportedly assaulting his pregnant girlfriend, and he ended up at Division II West Alabama. Hill reportedly ran a 4.24 40-yard dash at his pro day, which is no surprise for a high school track All- American.

At first, Hill was just a special teams maven, but with injuries to Jamaal Charles and Jeremy Maclin sapping their speed, the Chiefs began to turn to him more in their horizontal passing game. With Maclin now a Raven, Hill enters 2017 as the Chiefs' No. 1 option in the passing game. The doubters will point to a small sample size of snaps in which he actually played wide receiver, but he impressed in the ones in which he did, breaking press coverage repeatedly. Maybe he's only a speedy gadget receiver. Or, maybe he's Antonio Brown.

Terrance Mitchell #12

Mitchell had a huge half-year as the Chiefs stopped the bleeding next to Marcus Peters down the stretch. Targeted in an obscene 30 percent of his snaps after joining the starting lineup, Mitchell had a 57 percent success rate and allowed an average of just 4.9 adjusted yards per attempt. He added eight defensed passes.

As a prospect, Mitchell has been on the radar for a bit, but never had a real opportunity. He spent time on the Bears' active roster in 2014, but has also served two stints with the Cowboys, and one with the Texans last offseason before getting claimed by the Chiefs at final cuts. Mitchell had horrendous tested deep speed, with a 4.63 40-yard-dash that put him in the 11th percentile of all drafted cornerbacks since 1999. He was regarded as a mid-round prospect coming out of Oregon by most draftniks, but went undrafted in part due to a torn pectoral muscle. We at FO have seen a lot of small sample-size success seasons by cornerbacks in our day, so we're wary that Mitchell is suddenly a star. But on paper, it all seems to make sense that he could become a solid No. 2 corner.

Parker Ehinger #14

Ehinger likely would have played his way right off this list had he not torn his ACL soon after ascending to the starting job. Considered a bit of a tweener at tackle after playing there at Cincinnati, the Chiefs immediately moved Ehinger to guard, where we have him with just five blown blocks in his small sample last year.

Ehinger is not expected to be full-go at training camp, but as soon as he is ready to go, the Chiefs should find themselves with a functional-to-good guard with near-tackle agility. If Ehinger can develop a little more power, he could be a star.

If Terrance Mitchell ends up being the real deal, the Chiefs secondary might be the best in the league pound for pound. That guy turned quite a few heads down the stretch. And it appears he hasn't totally gone unnoticed either.

 

[Rock Strongo]

*** Article attached as .PDF file

NFL's top 25 'prospects' who could break out
By Rivers McCown

1. Tyreek Hill, WR - KC
2. Austin Hooper, TE - ATL
3. Javon Hargrave, DT - PIT
4. Brett Hundley, QB - GB
5. Elandon Roberts, LB - NE
6. CJ Posise, RB - SEA
7. Michael Pierce, DE - BAL
8. Andrew Billings, DT - CIN
9. Nick Vigil, LB - CIN
10. Owamagbe Odighizuwa, EDGE - NYG

11. Jonathan Bullard, DT - CHI
12. Terrance Mitchell, CB - KC
13. Paul Perkins, RB - NYG
14. Parker Ehinger, G - KC
15. DJ Reader, DT - HOU
16. PJ Williams, CB - NO
17. AJ Derby, TE - DEN
18. Justin Simmons, S - DEN
19. Miles Killebrew, S - DET
20. BJ Finny, G/C - PIT

21. Cody Kessler, QB - CLE
22. Kenneth Dixon, RB - BAL
23. Tyler Higbee, TE - LAR
24. Rashard Higgins, WR - CLE
25. AJ McCarron, QB - CIN

Honorable Mention

Vernon Adams, QB - Montreal
Ronald Blair, EDGE - SF
Kendall Fuller, CB - WAS
Roger Lewis, WR - NYG
Cardale Jones, QB - LAC
Robert Kelley, RB - WAS
Dean Lowry, EDGE - GB
Jalen Richard, RB - OAK
Dwayne Washington, RB - DET
Christian Westerman, G - CIN

wow...roberts 5th???

he has potential and all but...

 

[mrschaney]

I like Nick Vigil, but what about Mixon and John Ross? I guess we are just overloaded in talent.

A side note on Nick Vigil, he's a good kid. About the only negative I hear on him is he likes to eat alot of fried foods and it gives him bad gas and he likes to run up to the guys in the locker room and say Knock, Knock and when they say "who is there" he says "bart" and when they say "Bart WHO" he says "BART FART" and lets one loose right in a teammates face. I don't think this is going to go over well should he try this with Burfict and Pac Man?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I like Nick Vigil, but what about Mixon and John Ross? I guess we are just overloaded in talent.

A side note on Nick Vigil, he's a good kid. About the only negative I hear on him is he likes to eat alot of fried foods and it gives him bad gas and he likes to run up to the guys in the locker room and say Knock, Knock and when they say "who is there" he says "bart" and when they say "Bart WHO" he says "BART FART" and lets one loose right in a teammates face. I don't think this is going to go over well should he try this with Burfict and Pac Man?

• Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent
• Entered the NFL between 2014 and 2016

 

[mrschaney]

I guess I didn't read the criteria. Still, Burfict and Paman will not tolerate a naked gassy white guy that is a loose canon in the locker room!

 

[Yo Tee]

As a Steelers fan, I like seeing Javon Hargrave on there. I loved his play last year. Typical Steelers defensive player right there.

Also, can Vernon Adams be included on the list even though he's in the CFL? I know he somewhat fits the criteria but he's not even on a practice squad.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

As a Steelers fan, I like seeing Javon Hargrave on there. I loved his play last year. Typical Steelers defensive player right there.

Also, can Vernon Adams be included on the list even though he's in the CFL? I know he somewhat fits the criteria but he's not even on a practice squad.

You can do a statistical profile which I am betting FO is basing that one on without looking.

 

[PhoenixEagles1]

Jordan Hicks should be top 5

 

[iowajerms]

Jordan Hicks should be top 5

He fits the criteria.

3rd round in 2015 Draft and he is 25 years old. Looks like he only has had this one contract.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

He fits the criteria.

I almost guarantee he has exceeded the snap threshold. These are all guys who had limited snaps at their primary position. Ehinger for example is only listed in their own words because he got hurt, and failed to pass the snap threshold.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

wow...roberts 5th???

he has potential and all but...

Yeah, but when you pick the parameters FO does, you won't get a whole ton of if any established guys. That's on purpose. Very sleeperish list we got here.

 

[iowajerms]

I almost guarantee he has exceeded the snap threshold. These are all guys who had limited snaps at their primary position. Ehinger for example is only listed in their own words because he got hurt, and failed to pass the snap threshold.

Fair enough.

 

[SteelersPride]

i dont think kenneth dixon is breaking out

 

[Fountain City Blues]

i dont think kenneth dixon is breaking out

That's fine, most of those guys are fringey SSS's that are polarizing. I tend to agree on Dixon, btw.

 

[steelerssb]

I like B.J. Finney but I'd be somewhat upset if he "broke out" this year since that would either mean a starter got hurt or underperformed.

Hargrave, though, could be really, really good this season.

 

[DHoey]

As a Steelers fan, I like seeing Javon Hargrave on there. I loved his play last year. Typical Steelers defensive player right there.

Also, can Vernon Adams be included on the list even though he's in the CFL? I know he somewhat fits the criteria but he's not even on a practice squad.

That boy is gonna tear shit up. Loved him as an Eag, then, well, yeah......


Wouldn't it be great if they brought him in to start in LA after Goff blows for half a season??! Reunite him and Kupp!!!