The Broncos of 2017: Game by Game Predictions

[iknowftbll]

It's that time of year again: Both the NBA and the NHL are approaching their Finals and baseball season is hitting (forgive me) full swing. In the NFL the news is OTA's are taking place around the league and that's all it takes for the NFL to elbow its way into the sports news dialogue of the week and consume more than it's share of air time.

That's how awesome football is.

It's also that time of year when I unroll my predictions for the Broncos seasons. Now as always, there are some assumptions going in. Usually I put together my prediction based on "best case scenario" but this year I feel like I was a little harder on the Broncos. I gave them the benefit of the doubt for some games and wrote off others that I actually believe may be winnable games. While I definitely did not go worst case scenario, I didn't exactly do best case this year either.

Also, I am assuming the changes to personnel on the defensive front will make for a FUNCTIONAL run defense. Even last year's group was 18th in yards per attempt, there were just so many attempts the aggregate had them at 28th. While some of the players the Broncos signed were not the flashy off season moves other teams made, the Broncos under Elway have turned these types of signees into good transactions. For example, we all know that Peko is on the downward side of his career, but how many times do we see a player get a second wind after signing with a new team? Maybe a change of scenery (and elevation) can rejuvenate him. I'm not going to predict where the run defense will rank but I think it'll be vastly improved.

One of the reasons I think the run defense will be vastly improved is the offense will be improved too and these things complement each other. Last year's offense was awful. I said in my predictions last year I was far more concerned about the O-line than the QB position and with what Siemian showed us I believe that concern was well founded. This year's O-line is once again makeshift if you're using the previous season as a baseline. What is different about this year's line is for the first time in 3 years, 4 of the 5 players on the line look like they can be part of the unit going forward the next few years. And while I do expect some growing pains, I also think some of the coaching changes make the team well suited to scheme to the players strengths.

I think Trevor Siemian will win the starting job again. Not only that I think he is going to make a big jump under Mike McCoy. I think he'll hit 4,000+ yards, 25+ TDs and 14-15 or so INTs. I think that's going to be good enough for the Broncos to rank 10-12 or so in the passing attack. I also think the line is going to focus on pass blocking and be average at run blocking. Anderson-Booker-Charles...These guys are going to have their work cut out for them. I think the run game will be functional enough, but make no mistake: the Broncos leading rusher will have no more than 750 yards and the unit will rank mid-tier at best. With that said, these RBs all are pass catching threats and that's what will make their presence on the field a serious threat to the enemy.

Other assumptions: the pass defense will be insane again. The pass rush will be lights out once again. The changes on the defensive coaching staff have been over stated in my estimation. Wade Philips created a culture here on defense and Joe Woods is smart of enough to not turn that on its head. Offensively the staff is lead by Mike McCoy who made a respectable QB out of Kyle Orton and coaxed a playoff win out of Tim Tebow before taking a Peyton Manning everyone said couldn't even throw a ball anymore and produced what at the time was the second best season of his career across the board. With Vance Joseph, tying it all together I think the coaching staff this team hired is nothing short of impressive.

And it will show. My picks for the Broncos:

 

[iknowftbll]

Week 1 vs Chargers: Win, 26-16. The Broncos draw the newly branded Los Angeles Chargers on the second game of the week 1 double header. Opening against the Broncos in Denver on MNF in week 1 is a tough out for any team, but if any team can make a scrap out of it, the Chargers are that team. But the new look Broncos are just the better all around team than the even more new look Chargers and this is MNF in Denver. Broncos 1-0.

Week 2 vs Cowboys: Loss, 20-23. This is one of those games it is so tempting to call as a win but I'm inclined to give the Cowboys the nod. Even if Dak Prescott experiences the dreaded sophomore slump the Broncos will have their hands full containing Elliot and that Cowboys running attack. The Cowboys are good enough on defense too that our work in progress offense will struggle to keep up. It may come down to the Broncos needing a stop to get it to OT but the Cowboys getting just enough to get into FG range. Broncos 1-1.

Week 3 @ Bills: Win, 23-13. The first road trip of the year pits the Broncos against a Bills team that also is under yet another revamp at the top. I just don't see the Bills being good enough on offense and defense to keep up with the Broncos, though they will be good enough to keep the Broncos from running away with it. Broncos 2-1.

Week 4 vs Raiders: Win, 28-17. The Raiders are getting a lot of hype this year and I suppose they deserve it. They had a good offense that fizzled out after the loss of Carr, and they added some pieces that may make it an even more formidable unit. What's more is their defense has been touted as "improved" based on the players they've signed and drafted. While there may be something to that, there is so much room for improvement on that unit that even an improved defense may not be enough. Broncos click against their rivals and take this one. Broncos 3-1.

Week 5: Bye.

Week 6: vs Giants: Win, 17-7. That Giants defense is impressive and they have an explosive WR core, adding Brandon Marshal to go with league head case OBJ. Am I the only one looking forward to watching the No Fly Zone shut these two down? CHJ is so classy and humble and it's going to fun to watch him get inside OBJ's head. On the other side, that Giants defense is going to give the Broncos problems too so if you like scoring this game may not be the one for you. Broncos 4-1.

Week 7: @ Chargers: Win, 23-17. The Broncos trips to San Diego used to be home away from home and it's hard to predict how that'll translate to the 30,000 seat Stub Hub center. Incidentally I believe the Chargers sojourn at Stub Hub may be a test case for smaller, more intimate stadiums that drive ticket prices through the roof. As for this game the Chargers are just one of those teams that won't go away even against better teams. The Broncos take it but it's closer than it should be. Broncos 5-1.

Week 8: @ Chiefs: Loss, 13-21. No curve balls here. The Chiefs in Kansas City are going to be hard to beat. The Broncos under Manning enjoyed dominating the Chiefs home and away but those days are over and the Broncos are mortal again. Don't look now but this will make 4 in a row for the Chiefs. Broncos 5-2.

Week 9: @ Eagles: Loss, 17-27. This is the third of three straight road games that take the Broncos from coast to coast. The Eagles have an emerging talent at QB and even though I believe the Broncos are the better team overall the Eagles are catching them at the right time. Broncos 5-3.

Week 10: vs Patriots: Loss, 21-24. To go on the road three consecutive weeks and then catch the Patriots coming off a bye is just brutal. This is without question one of the more daunting games on the Patriots' schedule and I guess the league wasn't taking any chances with the way the Broncos historically have owned the Patriots in Denver set them up with every possible advantage. Broncos 5-4.

NOTE: With the Broncos fast start a distant memory and the top of the AFC West a log-jam with the Raiders, Chiefs, and Broncos, it is at this point in the season the Broncos will be entirely written off as contenders.

Week 11: vs Bengals: Win, 27-10. I think the Bengals are going to continue to decline this year, making this game just what the doctor ordered at this point in the season. It'll be called "must win" by those who make weekly picks. It'll be called a "season saving win" by those who write power rankings. For the Broncos it'll just be business as usual. Broncos 6-4.

Week 12: @ Raiders: Loss, 24-31. The Raiders avenge an early season loss and drop the Broncos to 1-4 over the stretch between weeks 8-12. Anyone who hasn't yet written off the Broncos will do so at this point. Broncos 6-5.

Week 13: @ Dolphins: Win, 27-24. Imagine a game where the HC for one team was once the OC for the other, and the HC for the other was once the DC for the first. Fun stuff, right? Both Gase and Joseph will be highly motivated to face off against their former teams and I think it's going to be close. The difference is Joseph's unit has a defense and that makes the difference. Broncos 7-5.

Week 14: vs Jets: Win, 37-7. I don't like predicting blowout wins but if any game on the Broncos schedule jumps out as a blowout waiting to happen it's this one. Enough said. Broncos 8-5.

Week 15: @ Colts: Win 31-23. This is a short week and a roadie for the Broncos against a team that always seems to reserve its best game of the season for the Broncos. With that said, the Colts are another team I think will decline further this season and even though the Broncos won't waltz through this one they secure another win. Sports analysts who wrote the Broncos off weeks prior now proclaim them contenders for the division and make no acknowledgement they were too hasty in their dismissal of this team. Broncos 9-5.

Week 16: @ Redskins: Win 27-13. Another late season road trip, the 4th in 5 weeks and against a team that is no longer a total dumpster fire. Still the Redskins can be had. While there is reason to believe they'll be better on the ground, they unloaded their best talent at WR, and their TE is a bit injury prone. What's more is there isn't a lot about the Redskins defense that gives one reason to believe the Broncos offense won't be able to function. Broncos 10-5.

NOTE: I believe this will be a playoff clinching win, but the Broncos still have work to do.

Week 17: vs Chiefs: Win 28-20. I am going to do a W-L for the other AFC West teams as well, but I'll give you a sneak preview: I have the Chiefs at 10-5 going into this game, same as the Broncos. In other words, this game is for the division title. The Chiefs will have carried a 4 game win streak against the Broncos into this one, but the Broncos put an end to it here. But there's more it. The real coup from this win is coming in my league-wide analysis, so tune in again later today or tomorrow for that! Broncos 11-5.

The AFC West standings:

Broncos: 11-5
Chiefs: 10-6
Raiders: 9-7
Chargers: 4-12

A W-L and rationale for each of the other AFC West teams is coming.

 

[iknowftbll]

The Chiefs:

Week 1: @ Patriots: Loss, 0-1
Week 2: vs Eagles: Win, 1-1
Week 3: @ Chargers: Win, 2-1
Week 4: vs Redskins: Win, 3-1
Week 5: @ Texans: Win, 4-1
Week 6: vs Steelers: Loss, 4-2
Week 7: @ Raiders: Loss, 4-3
Week 8: vs Broncos: Win, 5-3
Week 9: @ Cowboys: Loss, 5-4
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: @ Giants: Loss, 5-5
Week 12: vs Bills: Win, 6-5
Week 13: @ Jets: Win, 7-5
Week 14: vs Raiders: Win, 8-5
Week 15: vs Chargers: Win, 9-5
Week 16: vs Dolphins: Win, 10-5
Week 17: @ Broncos: Loss, 10-6

Rationale: Under Andy Reid the sum has always been greater than the parts for the Chiefs. This 4 year stretch has been as good for the Chiefs as any in Chiefs history since their two Super Bowl appearances in the 1960s. I think that trend will continue in 2017. Notice the pattern of wins and losses is actually very close to what I'm predicting for the Broncos: a fast start, a mid-season regression to the mean, and a surge to close out the season. Expect to hear a lot of calls for the Chiefs to replace Smith with Mahomes. I think the Chiefs stay the course with Smith though and that gets them into the playoffs once again.

 

[iknowftbll]

The Raiders:

Week 1: @ Titans: Loss, 0-1
Week 2: vs Jets: Win, 1-1
Week 3: @ Redskins: Win, 2-1
Week 4: @ Broncos: Loss, 2-2
Week 5: vs Ravens: Win, 3-2
Week 6: vs Chargers: Win, 4-2
Week 7: vs Chiefs: Win, 5-2
Week 8: @ Bills: Win, 6-2
Week 9: @ Dolphins: Loss, 6-3
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: vs Patriots: Loss, 6-4
Week 12: vs Broncos: Win, 7-4
Week 13: vs Giants: Win, 8-4
Week 14: @ Chiefs: Loss, 8-5
Week 15: vs Cowboys: Win, 9-5
Week 16: @ Eagles: Loss, 9-6
Week 17: @ Chargers: Loss, 9-7

NOTEWORTHY: I am predicting the Raiders beat the Ravens. Remember that when I make my league-wide predictions because that, combined with a week 17 loss to the Chargers is significant.

Rationale: While everyone else is hyping this team up I am saying "buyer beware!" Yes, they do appear to have added pieces on both sides of the ball. Offensively they should be even better than last year. Defensively the should be able to build on last year but let's be honest: there's a lot of room for improvement there. All the tangibles suggest the Raiders should be 12-4 again or better. But the tangibles don't always tell the whole story. We've seen time and time again a team go from 7-9 to 12-4 (or so) and then settle somewhere in the middle in that third season. In fact, we see that more often than we see a third year of success and improvement.

Finally I'll say this: while I'm sure a few Raiders fans may object to my prediction it's worth noting I am still actually showing them an immense amount of respect considering their HC. If the Raiders finish 9-7 it'll be just the second time in JDR's career where he finished with back to back winning seasons.

 

[iknowftbll]

The Chargers:

Week 1: @ Broncos: Loss, 0-1
Week 2: vs Dolphins: Win, 1-1
Week 3: vs Chiefs: Loss, 1-2
Week 4: vs Eagles: Loss, 1-3
Week 5: @ Giants: Loss, 1-4
Week 6: @ Raiders: Loss, 1-5
Week 7: vs Broncos: Loss, 1-6
Week 8: @ Patriots: Loss, 1-7
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: @ Jaguars: Loss, 1-8
Week 11: vs Bills: Win, 2-8
Week 12: @ Cowboys: Loss, 2-9
Week 13: vs Browns: Win, 3-9
Week 14: vs Redskins: Loss, 3-10
Week 15: @ Chiefs: Loss, 3-11
Week 16: @ Jets Loss, 3-12
Week 17: vs Raiders: Win, 4-12

Rationale: Obviously I don't believe in the Chargers. Changes to the staff and a move to Los Angeles make for just too much turbulence for this group to overcome. But even as I predict another dismal 4-12 season I also think they're going to be in a lot of games. I also think they get up for the Raiders in the season finale because the Raiders are going to be in a "win and in" scenario and the Chargers will be just good enough to spoil it for them.

 

[iknowftbll]

If anyone is counting, that's 389 PF and 293 PA for the Broncos. That's pretty consistent on defense with what we've seen the past 2 seasons and represents a marginal improvement of about 3.5 PPG on offense. I don't think either of those are a stretch.

 

[cdumler7]

I'll have to give my detailed breakdown in a while. I really appreciate this thread every year and look forward to it. Most years you have been closer than most so always trust your judgment on a lot of things when it comes to the Broncos. Plus love the other thread of you breaking down with the Broncos avenging their Super Bowl loss to the Cowboys with our 4th Lombardi!

Just one comment though I do disagree with. I think our OL is going to be much better as a run blocking unit. The guys we brought in are much more known for run blocking than pass blocking in my opinion and the offense is going to want to build that bully mentality like our defense. So at least early on in the season I see them leaning heavily on the run game until teams respect it and have to delay a bit before getting after the QB.

I'm also one that has Paxton Lynch winning the QB competition. I like both of our guys though and cant' wait to see how this QB situation shakes out.

 

[iknowftbll]

I would love it if you were right about the O-line. They did bring in a nasty guard in Leary, and running behind that guy is a sure thing. If the Broncos were a nasty, physical, ground game juggernaut on offense you wouldn't see me raise a single objection.

As for the QB competition, I genuinely think we'll be okay regardless of who wins the job. We have some real potential on the roster and whoever earns the starting role will have my support.

 

[LGM]

Nice.

You work for Mingo or SS? They're the only two people I know who have that much time to post during the day.

 

[iknowftbll]

Nice.

You work for Mingo or SS? They're the only two people I know who have that much time to post during the day.

Worse: I'm in the Marine Corps and while I had the day off today and actually wrote that up on personal time, some of the analysis behind it was done on taxpayer time!

 

[CEH]

Worse: I'm in the Marine Corps and while I had the day off today and actually wrote that up on personal time, some of the analysis behind it was done on taxpayer time!

Thank you for your service IKF

 

[Mingo]

Worse: I'm in the Marine Corps and while I had the day off today and actually wrote that up on personal time, some of the analysis behind it was done on taxpayer time!

Fellow Vet here - thanks for your service!

 

[iknowftbll]

^ Thanks guys. It's been good to me.

 

[Mingo]

^ Thanks guys. It's been good to me.

When I was a ceremonial soldier in Washington DC - the US Army's idea of ceremonial soldiers was to get them out of Infantry Training - so that their uniforms - were uniform. We had no campaign ribbons - no Combat Infantry Badge - no wearable awards of any kind.

The Marines - on the other hand - their Washington DC ceremonial soldiers - were all war heroes with purple hearts - combat infantry badges - silver stars, foreign campaign ribbons etc..

We were all taller and heavier than the Marines - they were fairly little guys - with the mentality they could whoop their way out of any crowd. No physical encounters, but there was always the idea that there could be brawl - at any moment. They had little respect for us. We only got to see them at special occasions and sometimes at the mess hall.

 

[CEH]

When I was a ceremonial soldier in Washington DC - the US Army's idea of ceremonial soldiers was to get them out of Infantry Training - so that their uniforms - were uniform. We had no campaign ribbons - no Combat Infantry Badge - no wearable awards of any kind.

The Marines - on the other hand - their Washington DC ceremonial soldiers - were all war heroes with purple hearts - combat infantry badges - silver stars, foreign campaign ribbons etc..

We were all taller and heavier than the Marines - they were fairly little guys - with the mentality they could whoop their way out of any crowd. No physical encounters, but there was always the idea that there could be brawl - at any moment. They had little respect for us. We only got to see them at special occasions and sometimes at the mess hall.

Thank you too for your service Mingo and interesting story.
Thanks again to all that served with Memorial Day coming up.

 

[iknowftbll]

When I was a ceremonial soldier in Washington DC - the US Army's idea of ceremonial soldiers was to get them out of Infantry Training - so that their uniforms - were uniform. We had no campaign ribbons - no Combat Infantry Badge - no wearable awards of any kind.

The Marines - on the other hand - their Washington DC ceremonial soldiers - were all war heroes with purple hearts - combat infantry badges - silver stars, foreign campaign ribbons etc..

We were all taller and heavier than the Marines - they were fairly little guys - with the mentality they could whoop their way out of any crowd. No physical encounters, but there was always the idea that there could be brawl - at any moment. They had little respect for us. We only got to see them at special occasions and sometimes at the mess hall.

You know there is no shortage of rivalry between the Army and Marine Corps but one detail Marines respect like no other are the soldiers that guard the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. They're out there 24/7/365. Doesn't matter if it's 100+ degrees and muggy as it often gets out here, or if the temperatures are close to freezing with snow or sleet falling. Congress will cancel sessions (that take place indoors) but these soldiers will be out there no matter what. I read once a blizzard was able to hit the area and the decision to have the detail stand down was considered. The soldiers in the detail responded with a "like hell!" And suited up for their shift, conducting the changing of the guard appropriately even though there was nobody around to witness it.

A good conversation to have on Memorial Day weekend. I can only have the honor of serving today because countless others did before me, and many made the ultimate sacrifice.

 

[Mingo]

You know there is no shortage of rivalry between the Army and Marine Corps but one detail Marines respect like no other are the soldiers that guard the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. They're out there 24/7/365. Doesn't matter if it's 100+ degrees and muggy as it often gets out here, or if the temperatures are close to freezing with snow or sleet falling. Congress will cancel sessions (that take place indoors) but these soldiers will be out there no matter what. I read once a blizzard was able to hit the area and the decision to have the detail stand down was considered. The soldiers in the detail responded with a "like hell!" And suited up for their shift, conducting the changing of the guard appropriately even though there was nobody around to witness it.

A good conversation to have on Memorial Day weekend. I can only have the honor of serving today because countless others did before me, and many made the ultimate sacrifice.

What circulates on the internet about the Sentinel Duty at the Tomb - is about 50% true and accurate. I can assure you - there never was and there will never be a consideration to discontinue the Guarding at the Tomb - it is the entire point - that the honor is ceaseless. I was 19 years old when I guarded the tomb - and it means more to me today - than it did back then. I am a slob by nature - so it was a great challenge to me to be meticulous with my uniform. I failed my first inspection as a tomb guard (the real inspection - before you go out and get ceremonially inspected) for the alleged reason of having left a thumb print on my iglet. An iglet is the plastic end or the shoe lace. They were able to allege the thumb print because - they saw me tie my shoes laces and then put on my white gloves - the gloves are to go on first - so as to avoid the fingerprints on the iglet. This was sort of a running initiation joke among tomb guards - but the message sticks - that everything gets noticed.

The Marines back then were very respectful of our service - they just looked at us like puppies - instead of grizzled veterans.

 

[idahoraiderfan33]

So you have the RAIDERS finishing at 9-7 eh? Hmmm

 

[iknowftbll]

So you have the RAIDERS finishing at 9-7 eh? Hmmm

Yeah, seems pretty reasonable, agree? The Raiders are good enough on the roster to overcome some of JDR's coaching and as noted will help him to consecutive winning seasons for just the second time in his head coaching career.

 

[idahoraiderfan33]

Yeah, seems pretty reasonable, agree? The Raiders are good enough on the roster to overcome some of JDR's coaching and as noted will help him to consecutive winning seasons for just the second time in his head coaching career.

Anything is possible man, even that record if that is what you choose to believe..