ST thread

[JohnU]

(We appear to be posting at the same time.)
I think the ongoing discussion about the Reds "budget" overrides any other conversations, and sadly, the "budget" is like a gnat in my face at the picnic. I agree that it should not have taken 6 years to replace Adam Dunn in left field -- left field. Anyone with a bat can play left-fucking-field.

The approach on Latin players is always too much like trying to catch a bluegill on a *frozen* lake in the last week of March. It's the last week of March.

I buy into the Cardinals approach of going after more mature pitchers with an immediate upside as opposed to the first-rounders from St. Bogus High School in Somewhere, California. The problem the Reds have is that they spend 3 or 4 years turning this 18-year-old horse into a big-leaguer and the Cardinals have their draft pick in the big leagues within 18 months.

Currently, the team on the field is probably adequate, provided it stays on the field. I think Negron will push Phillips to the bench this summer, which won't do any good for morale. Suarez might be called up when that happens.

There has been a lot of propaganda out of camp about how some guys have fixed the glitch in their swing. Not saying that could not have been done last summer when they first noticed it, but it's better to do it yourself than ask for coaching staff and the video room to help, I suppose.

One component that has to come into play this year is ... very simply

LUCK.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Pretty good summation from Chico, IMO. I do believe there are a lot if variables in running a MLB franchise, that players or fans have little concept of, but to oversimplify, winning is sometimes a bigger goal in their minds than the minds of the people running the franchise. Their primary goal is to make money. There are tax breaks for charitable causes for owners and board members, but baseball doesn't qualify. Unless you have a private owner that treats the team like an expensive hobby, the balance sheet is important. Breaking even with a $200M payroll Series contender, isn't good enough for investors for long.

Most teams have to win some to draw, Cubs excluded, but they don't have to win a pennant to make enough money. An organization that usually contends has a lot of smart people on the same page, and a organizational "way" of doing things do their success lives longer than the current generation. That requires money, first. Ownership revolving doors aren't condusive to long term success either.

I think Jocketty is a smart guy, but his "style" of doing things appears to me be be as much PR and compromise as actual talent on the field. He did better with bigger budgets, but he also had the Cardinals I infrastructure in place. I think he shot his Reds wad a couple years ago by not winning more when he had the horses to do so. After that, he's simply reacting to random opportunities and the limitations previous deals left him. It would be easy to say he doesn't have the smarts or balls of Billy Beane, but frankly, Beane's philosophy wouldn't sell in Cincinnati...A's will say it doesn't sell in Oakland either, but ownership is spinning a different tune anyway.

Any good businessman is an opportunist, and I would say that's true if good baseball managers too. The key is to strike best when the opportunity is there- Jocketty and the Reds failed in that regard, IMO. In not sure Jocketty 's resume is that if a builder of franchises, but am not aware if a better one is available, or would be as trusted by Castellini if they were. The Reds farm is inconsistent, and so are big club results. I think there is something in continuity, and the Reds need both a better recipe, and the long term use of it to be a Cards-like team.

 

[JohnU]

1507 nailed it on the profits thing, I think, which piggybacks off my annoyance with 'budget' discussions. Fact is, the Reds can finish 3rd without Cueto on the roster and they can finish 4th with Marquis on the roster. The difference is really not much worth debating. You win 81 and finish 3rd or 76 and finish 4th.

I do think the Reds believed two years ago, and probably do today, that they can contend in an unpredictable division. Essentially, getting close enough to the volcano to qualify for a wild-card. The extra wild card has turned a lot of front offices on their heads lately. Teams can't wheel and deal away talent at the deadline if they are only one good winning streak away from contending.

How teams prepare for the long season is always interesting and St. Louis has always been known to be able to do that. They start out in April with the notion that they will be playing in October. Most other teams are content to be in hunt for a post-season opportunity. Cleveland is a classic case of that. So is Oakland.

The history of Cincinnati baseball is perhaps the main reason the fans are impetuous. It took the better part of 3 decades to go from the 1940 World Series to the Big Red Machine. Fears that the franchise could be like the Cubs are not unfounded. After the BRM collapsed, there was but a very brief window of success in 1990 and it's been very tricky since then. The taste of success in 2010 and 2012 was a wakeup call. This team could contend.

But it's shown that it can't. We first blamed Baker, then everybody else who was left after Baker was canned.

The simple fact is: Put a team on the field that can hit the fucking baseball and the games will be winnable. Whatever strategy that includes should be on the discussion agenda. GABP is built for the long ball, the crusher, the gap hitter. The franchise player can draw all the walks he wants, but if that is going to happen, then we cannot keep trading for guys who strike out 185 times. We cannot continue to have a baserunning philosophy that looks like the Fairfield Grade School 8th grade team of 1960 (my finest hour!).

The front office is hobbling around trying to "budget" for a pitcher. Screw it. Trade Cueto for a hitter. Trade Chapman for a hitter. Trade a non-hitter for a hitter. Bring up a hitter from the minors. Just get a hitter. And teach the hitters how to hit.

 

[JohnU]

Here's sort of what annoys me about Price after I was set to believe that he was not quite so "old-school" about his use of pitchers. Turns out, he's out of the same cereal box as the rest of them are. The so-called "8th inning guy" has cost this team more wins over the last 3 years than Mike Lincoln ever conceived of coughing up.

But we're still looking for that "8th inning guy" to get the ball to Chapman -- with a batting order than figures to strike out 800 times this year.

And why in FUCK are we still talking about Sean Marshall? Under what rock did these people hide over the last 3 seasons? Marshall's career is over. Welcome to Fargo, Sean.

LeCure, Parra and Hoover -- yeah, the extremely nasty boys.



Reds still sorting out bullpen options
(CBS post)
While Aroldis Chapman is locked in as the Reds' closer, the eighth-inning job remains up in the air for the club as spring training winds down, according to MLB.com.

Sean Marshall is still recovering from shoulder surgery in 2014, leaving the set-up man spot as an open competition between a trio of players - Sam LeCure, Manny Parra and J.J. Hoover.

"I think right now what we're doing is we're trying to figure out who our best options are," Reds manager Bryan Price said.

"We're going to have to evolve as a bullpen. I think we know that Chapman's the closer and that we're going to have to evolve into roles to a certain degree," Price added. "Opening Day, I couldn't tell you who would be in the eighth inning. … There's a lot of balls in the air with the bullpen beyond the closer."

 

[Hit-n-Run]

There's a different version of the same story from Doug Miller where Price is praising Kevin Gregg along with the guys in the CBS report.

Marquis, Maholm. and Gregg all making the team. I don't know about a upgrade....... makes me wanna upchuck.

 

[JohnU]

Sounds a little like Pedro Villarreal just pitched himself onto the DFA list, not that anyone was worried about it.
I caught the last couple of innings today and Marty and Brantley were singing the praises of Kris Negron.

 

[chico ruiz]

i like the negron career story. 1507 reminds us occasionally just how tough it is to persist in the minor leagues, and negron has been relentless in his pursuit to succeed in mlb since 2006. i like his flexibility. he, and a healthy schumaker, give price a lot of in-game options. i think -based on his history- he can adapt more readily, than other players might, to being a bench player. specifically, staying ready for any situation price might put him in. bench looks stronger this year.

 

[JohnU]

Negron is showing he has surprising power. I could see him getting 10-12 long ones this year.

Meanwhile, the Reds sold Nefi Soto's contract to the White Sox. I am personally relieved to hear this news.

 

[JohnU]

Badenhop and LeCure did not look sharp.

Interesting choice to be made -- Satin, Falu, Dominguez, Negron on the infield. Negron is clearly in. Suarez probably is not. Why do we have Skippy Schumaker?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Badenhop has struggled all spring, if he didn't have a MLB deal with a 2016 option/buyout he'd might have gotten released with Mijares yesterday. Mijares got off on the wrong foot with Price and his release looked imminent from the start.....pitching poorly didn't help.

Satin and Suarez were assigned/optioned yesterday along with a couple other non-roster guys. I believe that leaves Dominguez, Negron, and Falu as the IF bench options.

Schumaker is the recent continuing problem of signing guys for two years. Players trending downward due to age should be getting minor league deals, not guaranteed money. It paints the 25 man roster into a corner.

Negron showed more power during his call up last year than MiLB numbers would suggest he had. He wasn't hitting pull side wall fence scrapers, some of his HR's were opposite field shots fifty feet up the stands. A career minor leaguer with relatively no power..... looks a little suspicous.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Looking at Negron's minor league numbers a couple minutes ago.

He had season's of 8-11 HR's, so his power numbers were better than I thought. The range you suggested John look very achievable ....given enough AB's.

Still surprised at how far some of his HR's traveled though.

 

[chico ruiz]

i completely agree with you on the 2 year signings hit'n'run. not very forward looking signings by jocketty & co. especially when you consider the particular players he signed. it's very hard to see an upside to those moves. when i think about it too much, i start to question wally's sanity. but, this is 2015, and most of those guys are gone.

i'm actually very optimistic about this important part of the reds roster. i don't think negron is a mirage. he appears to be a hard worker who stays ready and takes advantage of his opportunities. i don't know about his potential power, but i like the gappers to right-center. bat on ball, with less k's, and he will contribute. there will be more flexibility on the reds bench than they have had in many years. negron can play all positions sans first & catch. schumaker plays all outfield positions and 2nd base, and probably more, if push came to shove. schumaker doesn't strike out and he can move runners late in games. can negron play SS full-time? just poking a little fun @ cozart's bat.

i like the dominquez p/u a lot. why did SF let him go? and boesch, is a legitimate mlb bat from the left. price will options. switches and moving players from one position to another to re-set a line-up in the later innings etc. he will have to put on his thinking cap and stay open-minded in the process.

this is the best bench I've seen for a reds team in a long long time. good mix of young and veteran.

 

[JohnU]

I think I heard that the Dominguez deal was his decision. According to the SF announcer, Bochy wanted him but Dominguez saw a better chance in Cincy. Could be, he knows something. I would not expect that, however.

Boesch is an OK-to-good pickup. He showed good power numbers at Salt Lake, for what that's worth. Some guys can hit certain Triple-A pitches. Big league pitchers don't usually throw that pitch. I will settle for a lot of doubles from this roster. The home runs are fun.

Cincy is giving Kyle Skipworth a lot of action this spring. That's an interesting agenda.

Falu or Dominquez: Hopefully we don't need to see either one of them too-too-too often.

Falu would be my choice if I had to keep one.

Let's assume Marlon Byrd has something of a season, what's next for Jesse Winker?

The problem here is that people who are corks in the bottle are keeping this franchise from actually promoting and developing talent at the top level. Schumaker and Pena are classic examples of this. Byrd was necessary because there was no planning 5 years ago for filling LEFT fucking field, the only spot on the field that should be, as 1507 says, "defended with a bat."

I do agree, this is a good bench, maybe better than most in the NL-C.

Unfortunately the pitching .............

 

[Hit-n-Run]

There's been extra game reps for catchers with Brayan Pena having had off season knee surgery and Price limiting his innings behind the plate. He's been getting reps in the bull pen sessions and mostly DH for AB's. I'm assuming he'll be ready by Opening Day since they've already optioned Barnhart to Louisville.

 

[JohnU]

Chad Wallach, the other meaningful chip in the Latos trade, didn't make much of an impact. I think I saw him playing a little first base. He may end up just being a career minor leaguer.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Reds are apparently really good at developing utility players. MLB rosters are littered with former Reds farmhands in those roles. Unfortunately, the Reds tend to DFA them when they are out of options, and often seem to prefer an unemployed veteran MLB player fishing for a 2 year deal for 4 times what their own hitless utility guy would cost anyway. Maybe Negron is a break from that tendancy. Equally strange is the Reds knack for finding a value 1 year reclamation answer in LF, then inexplicably signing him to a 2 or 3 year deal for twice what he's worth...maybe Byrd fits that role now ? I'm hoping Winkler makes a buyout a no-brainer next year.

If you have GM "skills" like that, why not use them- keep your own utility guy and bounce the LF to be released later after a year and sign another 1 year wonder ? Seems like a perennial waste of $4-5 M. Toss in at least 1 pitcher making $4-5M that doesn't actually pitch, and they blew enough to pay for half a year of a Cueto contract.

They probably have bigger fish to fry...dumping 2 SP, a role player with a $4M buyout, a setup man turned closer turned setup man at a closer salary, and a 4th OF on his 4th try, so they can decide they still don't have enough money to sign Johnny Cueto, because they already spent that money on Homer Bailey.

The truth is, the Reds wasted more resources and opportunities than they could, and still be able to win something. They signed Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey and Brandon Phillips because it was the popular thing to do at the time, and they DID think they had the horses to win with Choo and Latos and Chapman and Broxton... Lack of urgency and motivation, inability to allow the best pitcher on the staff to make a post season impact appearance, "suicide by stupidity", constipation of the status quo, and a couple injuries and payroll limits, frittered away brief opportunities that would expire before the ROI was lilkely.

Now, even if they won't admit it, the Reds are trying to re-build... with 90% of the payroll locked up into half a lineup....and still have to sell enough to break even at the gate. That plan doesn't require winning anything...except the fans... It's possibly no longer a shot than expecting Brandon Phillips to hit 25 HR , Votto playing 150 games, or Jay Bruce hitting .270, but in any analysis, that "plan" would probably have cost a less tenured GM his job already.

Badenhop looks like this year's pitching mistake, assuming that Sean Marshall doesn't defend that award again. I must admit though, Badenhop's baseball card looked pretty good...better than his actual performance this spring, for sure. Maybe there is timeto recover ...or maybe, he's developed the Majewski-Bray-Weathers-Burton-Lincoln-Marshall-Hoover syndrome....where the color Red causes the sudden inability to get outs.

I disagree some with John U , about hitters making all things possible, though. The Griffey-Dunn teams could hit, but the pitching they had the hardest time hitting enough to win against, was their own. Marquis, Maholm, even Desclafani , Cingrani, Badenhop, Hoover and Parra could fit right into those miserable teams. IMO, I'd rather lose 2-1 than 8-6 because you usually only have 1 weakness to overcome losing 2-1, but there is usually more than 1 malfunction in giving up 8 runs. I think MIke Leake is a 4th or 5th starter on a really good staff, and he's our #2. It's obvious to me this team doesn't have nearly enough pitching.

 

[JohnU]

I don't disagree that the roster has insufficient pitching talent, and that will eventually come back to haunt.
But I still think the Reds have enough talent to stay in the hunt with the pitching they have -- if they can score enough runs to get the marginal pitchers over the hump.

I think, for 81 games, Price can keep this team in a race.

Badenhop and Gregg scare the bejesus out of me.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

It's too early to tell about Chad Wallach. He's a 2013 draft class 3-4 year college player that hasn't played above A+ yet. He's hit well to start, but a lot of college players do in A ball where they aren't facing pitchers with quality breaking and/or off speed stuff.

You don't hear much in the way of complemtary remarks about his defense, so that may be a issue going forward as well. If he can hit, you'd like to think they'd find a position for him. Hasn't been the recent trend with Reds' prospects, if they can't play defense they don't progress through the system to the big club. Of course a equally troubling trend with recent prospects is they can't hit either.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Only about a dozen extras in camp now, so it won't be long until we see what the initial plan is. I'm a bit surprised at the quick Iglasias decision, but not unhappy they recognized Cingrani's deficiencies as a SP...even if it took a little over a year for the light to come on. I think most decisions are in the bullpen, and that looks like a mess too. Badenhop has stunk, but he has a 7 figure MLB contract. It wouldn't surprise me (or dissapoint me) to see Hoover get the axe. With no LHSP(again), probably would prefer an extra LHRP, possibly giving Maholm a better chance, and would be logical long man choice-IMO, something they need to consider with the patch work rotation anyway.

I am incouraged by some young guys that were in ST though. It looks like they have some potential a year or two away.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I haven't kept up in the last week, where do you see Phillips hitting in the lineup ? I know lots of early speculation had him 7th- but not sure he will appreciate that much.