Regular Season

[JohnU]

Iglesias isn't really a reliever even though I don't think the Reds are going to screw with the rotation they have.
With Disco coming back, they are in a little better shape now than a month ago. The guy I wonder about is still Simon. Lamb, Strailly and Moscot will be locked in. They can lumber on to see if Homer really is going to pitch this year with any impact. I can see Finnegan in the pen too.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

This rotation has been in a state of flux all season. You have to recalibrate your opinion every week to keep up with this group.

Moscot has most likely made his last start with Disco due back this week. I think he'll be optioned to AAA to continue starting and be available if needed due to injury.

The Reds have already announced Iglesias is going to pitch out of the bullpen. They obviously would prefer him to start, but he hasn't been able to handle the workload of pitching every 5th day. Baseball Reference list his International stats, according to them he only started 5 games and had 18 saves in Cuba.

Homer won't be back until the All Star break if all goes well. If it goes as well as the last two seasons he may never pitch again.

 

[JohnU]

Normally you kick yourself for letting a game get away.
In the case of this team, one wonders if they actually understand the principle.

 

[JohnU]

Brantley in 4th inning: Moscot is pitching like a man on a mission.

Five hitters later, the 5-0 lead has vanished.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Maybe he meant " Mission Impoosible" ?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Cards are in town for three games starting Tuesday. Mike Leake Is the game 1 starter. He's pitched much better his last 5 or so outings.

Any predictions on how the Reds fare against him?

 

[JohnU]

They can actually compete against the Cardinals if they get their collective heads out of the bullpen.
I don't think Leake will have an especially stellar game in GABP.

 

[chico ruiz]

i was thinking about leake the other day after a post by 1507. i thought when they signed bailey to that ridiculous contract they would have been better served signing m. leake.

because, here's the thing: by the 2018 / 2019 season the reds rotation could be completely upside down in terms of salary. the #5 starter could very well be making 23 million a year, while the rest are making $500,000. that is a very plausible scenario, and goes to more than the escalating salaries of starting pitching, which has been ratcheting for a decade. the reds are stuck with bailey. imo, that's worse than votto and phillips combined. this opens the question of organizational continuity at highest administrative levels.

i'm not going to rant about the gm(s). they didn't have a crystal ball for bailey's injuries. my argument is if the reds were going to make a all out push for starting pitching prospect talent with stephenson and garrett already in the organization, why keep bailey at such a high cost? it tells me that not only were the reds not looking 5 years down the road, they weren't looking 2 years down the road. where was the disconnect? who thought that bailey would be a 20 million dollar a year starter for 5 years? his track record did not warrant such a contract. did it? if somebody on this board thinks so, please speak up. jon lester is making almost exactly what bailey makes. similar age, both broke into mlb at roughly the same time, but the comparative individual results leading up to their present contracts are strikingly dissimilar. look at the back of their baseball cards, and you tell me. when did bailey become an elite mlb pitcher? i must have missed that. he's not even worth mike leake money; not at the time of his signing, or now. it's mind boggling. he's getting paid damn-near cueto money. if reds front officers knew they would be restructuring (or use whatever word / concept you like), with emphasis on top tier starting pitcher prospects, leake would be the guy to keep. a lot cheaper than bailey. a proven dependable #4 or #5 starter with no history of severe arm problems. it's why the reds signed arroyo to 4 more years in 2007 to augment the young prospective frontline starters (volquez, cueto, and -ironically- bailey). done deal. 200 innings a year for 4 or 5 years. as it is, the reds probably have the same thing in bailey (#4 or #5), minus the 200 innings, and their 30 - 40 million bucks lighter in the wallet. hell, compare any 20 million dollar a year starter, in mlb, with bailey in terms of statistical accomplishment before signing. what you see will shock you. off the top of my head, i can think of 5 mlb starters making 10 - 15 million a year, on long term contracts, who had better track records than bailey before signing. point is: instead of having a 13 million dollar a year starter who's injury you could financially weather, the reds have a financial albatross. why is that important? bailey can be bought out in 2020. that's the same year stephenson, reed, etc would become art eligible if they're brought up next year. the reds are on the hook to bailey for 23 million bucks in 2019. anybody see what i'm driving at here?

predictions on mike leake? he'll run to the mound and pitch.

 

[JohnU]

Well, I guess all that analysis counts as a "regular season" comment if we want it to.
I will post the play-by-play in the thread about the future of the system.

 

[chico ruiz]

not really an analysis, more of an observational comparison and stats driven to make a point, but mostly a distinctive eyeball contrast, having seen a lot of both pitchers the last 5 - 6 years. i was at the yard for leake's first mlb start v. the cubs. he got himself out of trouble several times. what i liked about him was he went right after the hitters. a lot of younger pitchers will, for whatever reason, nibble and miss because they don't trust their stuff digging a deeper hole. granted, leake definitely had his share of bad outings at gabp where he would get bombed. it looked like batting practice at times. but, damned if he didn't come right back at them. most of the time, he just wouldn't give in. regardless, in terms of bailey, maybe the reds could do the same thing san diego did with shields; trade him for a prospect or two, and pick up ($$, $$$,$$$) well over half of the remainder of his contract.

anyway, my apologies. i strayed a little from my original intent in my last post. please excuse my tangential nature. i will try to be more cognizant of this cyber-social / character flaw, and make modifications, moving forward. very rarely does anyone else on this board lose focal specificity, and divergently segue, with additional random thoughts they want to share. by god, there certainly does need to be rules on a forum of this kind. i don't know what's wrong with me sometimes, but - god help me - i'd probably enjoy johnny's play-by-play postings in whatever thread he chose. but, that's just me.

 

[JohnU]

Dude, your evaluation of the front office -- aside from not having much in the way of a CAPITAL LETTER -- is generally informative. The point is, H-n-R set up a "regular season" thread so that we could discuss the REGULAR SEASON, instead of what might happen in 2020 or what happened in 1989.

Seems the spring training thread devolved into an incisive look at how the Reds managed their farm system 4 years ago. We went 'round about that, and I was naturally accused of trying to be an overseer of the forum. All I wanted was to stay on topic. I post many topics here and really have no reason for that other than to perhaps attract people who want to (a.) read about baseball (b.) enjoin a few memories and (c.) read with capital letters at the start of a sentence. The paragraph ("enter") key is also kind of useful.

But you are right, I can ignore your contributions. I'd rather not, but I do get a thrombotic malfeasance moment when I endeavor to discern when one sentence ends and another begins. I suppose when one is in a hurry, the shift key is far too much hassle. It's preferable to chronic use of the ellipsis.

So the question remains: How do we think Mike Leake will fare against his old mates?

 

[JohnU]

Moscot down, Selsky back up. H n R nailed it on that one. Presumably Selsky will hold the spot for Disco's turn on Sunday.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I've seen Selsky play a couple times. Not a very athletic kid, but he has hit at every stop.

I can see it going both ways for Leake tonight. If he can keep the ball in the park I think he'll post a typical line of 7 IP, 7-8 hits, a walk or two, 2-3 runs.

The Reds have been hitting the long ball lately and Leake should leave a couple cookies on the dish. Hopefully there's some ducks on the pond when the boys go hunting.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Gotta like those 3-run home runs. Duvall hasn't been missing many mistakes.

Questionable base running by Phillips. He got lucky on that one.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

After watching Suarez on that foul pop.....

 

[Hit-n-Run]

No lead has been safe with this bullpen. I don't know offhand how many saves have been blown, but the number of multiple run leads that have been surrendered is sickening.

 

[JohnU]

ah well a win izza win.

 

[JohnU]

This is the problem with replay. The umps basically make a call that is either accurate or it is not, because "New York" will fix it for them.

Hamilton safe after review

 

[JohnU]

Stay inside the game, Chico. It's not that difficult. Stay inside the game. That is all this thread is asking.
Stay inside the game. Is that difficult?

 

[JohnU]

I suppose there is justice in the world but winning a game is winning a game. Gotta be harsh with ineptitude.