Reds, as of today

[JohnU]

Lots of new speculation now that Cano has jumped the rat-infested ship, as to whether the Yanks have any reason to go after Phillips. That's an easy set of dots to connect for the scribes like Rosenthal and Heyman. My opinion: NYY would have already traded for BP since it was clear they had no intention of coming up with a quarter-billion bucks for a 2B.

IMO, BP needs to shut up and play 2B. He's not going to get a better arrangement.

As well, it seems that Walt and Price are both fairly clear that Chapman is going into the bullpen again, so that would mean that any deal for Bailey isn't probable. I honestly don't think the Reds know what Bailey is worth on the market. Is he a 3 guy, or a 2 guy or just somebody who is a little better than Jeff Samardzija?

So far, I think I might be on the short list of people who thinks Billy Hamilton needs to just go into CF, play there and steal lots of bases. He needs to be working on his bunting in winter ball, where he evidently isn't impressing anybody.

Henry Rodriguez will probably make the big club.

It isn't March, btw.

Pisses me off that the Brewers traded Aoki for almost zero in return. A freaking middle relief pitcher? KC didn't even provide the Crisco for that reaming. While I don't care much for intra-divisional trades, the teams have all done it. Axford last year, Sean Marshall before that ... etc.

Aoki in the Reds lineup would have been sweet. Maybe not many people agree. Aoki just gets on base, one slap shot at a time.

While I am in hope that Price won't manage the way the Toothpick did, I still don't know if I believe that. All I know is that he said he would consider using Chapman more than in just 1-inning closer roles.

Anybody else think Garrett Jones is a good PH choice? He murders righthanders.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I'm definitely on that short list with you for Billy H.

Garrett Jones is a solid LHB to have, but is very streaky and is kind of RF, 1B..the two positions we never rest.

I think I'm on the short list for Chapman to remain the closer... but since AC himself and the staff are on that list with me, I feel good about it.

 

[TKOSpikes]

and yeah, Aoki is A-Okay (a poor man's Ichiro, but not really that poor)...and I agree and share your hatred for trades like that which seem easy to beat.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Mark Trumbo, anyone ?

Supposedly, he's being shopped for starting pitching. He isn't eligible for free agency for a couple of years. He's a 1b, but has also played ( not very well) LF and 3b.

He would be a 40hr threat in GABP, and could flip flop with Frazier in LF/3b whoever would do least D harm. I wouldn't expect Bailey to be traded before Cueto's health was known- they don't have to. If true Chapman says as closer, and they believe Cingrani is ready as a LHSP, that still leaves Latos, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani, Cueto as the 5 rotation guys, but if AC was considered for the rotation, it would theoretically allow one to be traded.

The problem is, Ludwick is a pretty expensive 4th OF at $9M next season, and IMO, he's untradeable without eating salary...but is rather gamble on Trumbo hitting 35 HR than Ludwick. If BP is kept, he's a sweet 2 hitter, and the Reds are rolling.

 

[JohnU]

Trumbo is a nice idea. He CAN play 3B, not as well as Frazier.
Frazier CAN play 2B, not as well as Phillips.

So the deal there is, do we go back to 2007 when the Reds had no defense and no pitching?
The pitching is there, the hitting would improve but the defense would weaken.
Bad defense can turn good pitching into bad pitching.

So Trumbo in LF? That's a do-able part of the discussion, but the Reds can't offload Ludwick, who would be a marginally useful expensive bench bat. Heisey could move to CF, shudder ....

The problem the Reds have is that they've locked themselves into a scenario that says they have to have a CF who is a leadoff guy. No matter what else happens, ever since Baker came on, the Reds have had to find a CF who was a leadoff guy. It's simplified the process but ... whatever happened to finding, say ... a SS who could lead off and a CF who could hit 5th and hit 30 HR?

No ... our CF has to be a fast guy who leads off. So when the Reds go looking for talent, they have to go looking for ... a CF who is fast.

Trumbo can do neither.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Don't bother asking Santa for Trumbo, he's already wrapped and under the D-backs tree.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Aoki was in his option year and would have been a free agent in 2015. With the year Khris Davis had for MLB minimum and the return of Juicer Braun, they have a pretty good outfield rounding it out with Gomez in CF. Aoki for nearly $2M or Davis for $500k, the payroll probably played a role in the decision.

Whether the Brewers got value in the trade will depend on LHP Will Smith ability to improve. If he becomes a fifth starter in the Brewers rotation, KC may end up the loser in that trade with only securing Aoki for one season. Time will tell.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

But I agree with John, I'd liked to have seen him in a Reds' uniform batting leadoff.

 

[JohnU]

Interesting scenarios playing out.
Will Bronson come back? I think maybe, yes.
If he does, that allows the Reds to stockpile Cingrani in the pen and hang onto Homer for a year until Stephenson is ready.

Word is pretty solid that the Reds are dangling Sean Marshall to the Rockies. No clue what that means but I doubt Arenado is part of the discussion. It's a trade rumor.

I still don't like the Brett Gardner idea, no matter what. The guy isn't an upgrade.

As for Trumbo, the DiBacks went looking for a pitcher and ended up with a right-handed Adam Dunn who hardly ever draws a walk.

 

[JohnU]

I'm definitely on that short list with you for Billy H.

Garrett Jones is a solid LHB to have, but is very streaky and is kind of RF, 1B..the two positions we never rest.

Signed with the Marlins.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Well Parra is signed for 2 years, so Marshall is expendable I suppose. Which brings me back to the real value of a LOOGY, and why, if you can find one on the junk heap, ever trade 3 players for one, or give them a multi year deal ?

I will argue that 46 of the last 50 World Series were lost because the loser didnt have a LHSP, but I doubt many of them were lost because they didnt have a LOOGY for one hitter in the 7th inning.

I held my breath every time Marshall tossed that looper into a righty hitter...and the 88 mph "fastball" he sported last year wasn't impressive. I'm not convinced Parra has figured it all out, but I don't have much faith long term, in any pitcher not good enough to start, or close. If they can get a value in return, it would be nice to be on the sunny side of a laugher trade for a change.

 

[JohnU]

Parra could convert to starter but I don't know if he has the pitch selection to be truly effective 4 out of 8 times.

Marshall has never impressed me.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Sometimes I think the older I get, the less I know. I'm less than confident in the Reds current roster...but...

...this time last year I wouldn't have expected the Redsox to make the playoffs, with a batting practice rotation, a sore armed closer, a lineup full of often injured and/or under experienced guys, and a new manager...amazing how much mileage banning chicken and beer got them, huh ? Of course, they did have the prerequisite LHSP to win a World Series...they got some surprising production from percieved risks, and they went from worst to first...without signing a billion dollar player.

Anything is possible.

 

[JohnU]

Boston also went into the teeth of the hurricane.
That's easily the most difficult division, top to bottom.
But it proves that if you win 16 games a month instead of 15, you can make something of it.
Unless there's no urgency.

As of today, it looks like the Reds are going to have to part with somebody we think is a regular if they plan to upgrade. The question is: How do you upgrade in an even-steven trade? I don't see anything that suggests a real deal is in place.

Could be, Walt and Banana Bob are counting on the team playing better with Price and a new staff.

I am also not discounting the re-signing of Choo.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Unless Bob has done a hostile takeover of a really good counterfeit ring, I don't believe signing Choo is a remote possibility. I hope im wrong.

I believe Arroyo has lots of interest at about $28M/2yrs but more cash or years is a problem, and to be honest, I dunno if Bob has that much cash to toss on Arroyo, if he's trying to pay the younger rest to stay.

 

[JohnU]

Mariners got Logan Morrison and Corey Hart. One of them is going to the OF, so that would probably cut Seattle out of a Choo deal. That leaves, probably, the Rangers.

Volquez signs with the Pirates.

Latest word is Bronson is going to sign with the Reds -- 1-year deal.

 

[Redsfan1507]

It's easier to win a NASCAR race without a steering wheel than a World Series without a LHSP. 50 years of history makes that a fact, that somehow, this team chooses to ignore. I like Arroyo, but if he means 5 righties in the rotation, it's bad science. It means someone else has to go, and they're all younger, cheaper and arguably have more upside given Arroyos age and diminished skills...bad science.

With a new staff, there is the possibility of better fundamentals, not a guarantee with the same players...mix in some bad science and a lighter lineup and the odds just keep getting longer. Is it possible BP may be replaced by Schumaker to give salary room for another player ? If so, is that Choo or Arroyo ? I would hope, Choo. I haven't a clue, and am beginning to think Walt doesn't have one either.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I'm already tired of the BP thing...now he wants more money added to the contract he signed. Supposedly, the Yankees turned down a trade for Gardner- who can be a free agent after next season, and hit .270 with zilch power and 24 SB last year. So what is a 32 year old lifetime .260's hitter that averages 15 HR a season worth ? IMO, about what BP is making. I don't get any of it.

 

[JohnU]

Choo apparently is wanting something close to a 7-year deal, which is preposterous. Boras is his agent. He will get a 5-year deal, I think. Wherever he goes, it will be a surprise. Boras does that.

Folks who think we ought just trade BP for anything we can get ... tend to overlook the fact that an integral part of a good pitching staff is a good defense. If Skippy can do the job, fine.

But he can't.

 

[Redsfan1507]

What the Reds need is for BP to continue to play D like he has, play every day like he has, and hit for a little higher average than he has recently, anyway...and if they insist on him hitting in the 4 spot behind Votto ( and they want Votto to continue to get on base at his current pace AND walk less) BP needs to hit a few more HR...and the toughest parts of that is, he's getting older AND he has a bad attitude about the Reds brass AND his contract, not exactly the motivational factors that foster all the above needs.

The real question is, how likely is it that Phillips can or will live up to the Reds need for him ?

If the answer is not very, then his worth lessens.

I think at least part of all that is why the Tankees didn't think giving up a lame duck speedy OF was a good idea.