Ranking the ACC coaching stability - ESPN Insider

[iowajerms]

Would Jimbo Fisher ever bolt Florida State?
By Travis Haney

This week, Insider is assessing the stability of the coaching situation for each team in a Power 5 conference. The ACC is up first.

The league welcomes four new coaching hires, including three in the beefed-up Coastal Division. There is a considerable amount of young coaching talent in the ACC, and Dabo Swinney and Jimbo Fisher have set a high standard of achievement.

These rankings go in descending order from least to most stable. Keep in mind that stability is not solely determined by whether a program will want to part ways with its head coach if there are perceived failings; often, success will make it difficult, if not impossible, for a program to keep a coach from leaving for a seemingly better job.

Here is the breakdown of each ACC coaching situation.

14. Dave Doeren, NC State
(Fourth season, 18-20 record)

Insider ran into some prominent NC State boosters recently. They said they like Doeren before adding, "But he’s got to win games.”

That’s code for a coach trending toward hot-seat status. Another red flag is when a head coach has to dismiss a coordinator, and Insider was told that the administration prompted the offseason offensive coordinator switch from Matt Canada to Eli Drinkwitz.

Coaches see that Doeren has developed some talent, such as redshirt freshman quarterback Jalan McClendon. But the Atlantic Division is so loaded, with preseason top-10 teams Clemson and FSU, and Louisville not far behind -- that it's hard to see a major breakthrough for the Wolfpack. Seeing rival UNC enjoy an 11-win season in 2015 doesn't help Doeren, either.

13. Steve Addazio, Boston College
(Fourth season, 17-21 record)

Addazio’s “be a dude” mentality created a ripple out of the gate, and the Eagles went to bowl games in each of his first two seasons. But Addazio is under fire after a 3-9 season in 2015 that included zero conference victories.

Those in the league do wonder, though, whether firing a football coach is a pressing matter at Boston College, a private school that is lagging far behind in facilities and spending. This should buy Addazio some time, but he has to find some offense to avoid another disaster like ‘15.

12. Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech
(Ninth season, 61-44 record)

The 11-win season in 2014 helped put out the hot-seat fires that appeared after Johnson averaged seven wins per season from 2010 to ’13. But then the Yellow Jackets went 3-9 in 2015, greatly underachieving relative to what was returning, including quarterback Justin Thomas.

And so Johnson gravitates back toward the hot-seat conversation. Other coaches have pointed out that Johnson’s patented option offense, not exactly the sexiest scheme out there, creates a narrower margin for error.

“Fans like to see the ball in the air,” a Power 5 coach once told Insider.

This is an important, crossroads-type season for Georgia Tech

11. Dave Clawson, Wake Forest
(Third season, 6-18 record)

Coaches in the league say Clawson has done a better job than his record suggests, but improvement is needed this season in the win-loss column.

A case for hope: Clawson’s 2016 recruiting class is comprised solely of high school team captains, so there’s certain potential for a leadership boost in the next two or three seasons.

But will Clawson win enough to see it through? As with BC, there’s seemingly a longer leash at a private school with challenging admissions standards.

10. Jimbo Fisher, Florida State
(Seventh season, 68-14 record)

The three letters to note here are L-S-U. Insider learned that some important Tigers decision-makers were pushing for Fisher to replace Les Miles last fall, and that talk could surface again if LSU falls short of its expectation to win the SEC West in 2016.

Would Fisher go? Some close to Fisher and the situation tell Insider yes, some say no.

For one, money talks. And Fisher did love his time in Baton Rouge, but he would have to look at the relative competition. Right now, in this climate, if FSU beats Clemson, it has a high probability of making the College Football Playoff. In the SEC West, there are two or three Clemson-level opponents to get past.

9. Dino Babers, Syracuse
(First season)

The person who hired Babers, AD Mark Coyle, abruptly left for the same job at Minnesota last week, and didn’t even let Babers know that he was going.

Coaches have told Insider that they’d be incredulous if they were put in that situation. Babers will have a new boss before he even coaches a game at Syracuse, one who might not have hired Babers.

It’s easier to say this in hindsight now, but perhaps Babers would’ve been better off taking a quality Group of 5 gig such as UCF. Syracuse, coaches say, is something of a dead end, and that’s with a stable AD in place. This is far from an ideal start for the 54-year-old in his first major job.

8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville
(Seventh combined season, 58-18 record)

The school’s bluntly honest AD, Tom Jurich, talks often about a “new Bobby” since Petrino’s return to Louisville. And that may be true in many regards. But a healthy skepticism remains in the coaching world for a guy who has rarely left schools on good terms.

However, Petrino would be foolish to turn his back on, or wreck, what he’s building. Despite Clemson and FSU being in the same division, the Cardinals return a defense that will have them competing in every game. Sophomore quarterback Lamar Jackson could blossom into a superstar this fall. The program is trending up, without question.

As far as support, Jurich will go to Hades and back for Petrino; his neck was on the line when he made this hire. If Petrino is to ever leave, it would be of his own volition. And that seems less likely than it has in the past.

 

[iowajerms]

7. Larry Fedora, North Carolina
(Fifth season, 32-20 record)

After a 21-17 start in his first three seasons, Fedora was moving toward the hot seat. But then the 11-3 year in 2015 flipped the script, making Fedora something of a flight risk. South Carolina was one overture he spurned, Insider was told.

A new contract quickly calmed those concerns, creating stability for both Fedora and UNC. Everyone’s talking about the new coaches in the division while, quietly, the Tar Heels have the team to beat in the ACC Coastal.

It would take a big job to pull Fedora from Chapel Hill, and a couple of industry sources tell Insider that some Texas boosters have interest in Fedora, a native of the state. Just something to file away.

6. Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh
(Second season, 8-5 record)

Narduzzi won eight regular-season games despite losing the reigning ACC Player of the Year, running back James Conner, to a knee injury in the opener. (Conner was diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma and is attempting to return to action when his treatment is done.)

After repeated turnover in the past half-decade or so, Pitt has become gun-shy about losing coaches. But Narduzzi, from nearby Youngstown, Ohio, gushes about the tradition and possibilities at Pitt. He does not seem to have even a pinkie toe out the door; he wants to be right where he is. That’ll make weary Panthers fans love him even more.

5. Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia
(First season)

Mendenhall hasn’t been one to move around; he had been at BYU since 2003 as an assistant or head coach.

With a 99-43 career mark as head coach at BYU, Mendenhall presents the most optimistic track record for a Virginia hire since perhaps George Welsh, who was above .500 at Navy. This was the offseason’s most creative hire. He’ll be given time to make it work at UVA.

4. Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech
(First season)

This spring, Fuente spoke glowingly of the tight-knit Blacksburg community, which was as important as anything to him.

That leads us to believe that he wouldn’t leave unless it were for a top-five type job, and he has some proving left to do before those programs come calling. AD Whit Babcock did a masterful job in hiring Fuente to replace legend Frank Beamer.

3. Mark Richt, Miami
(First season)

In a recent conversation with Insider, Richt looked and sounded enthused and refreshed. He’s ready to put Miami football back on the map, just as fans want a return to relevance.

It’s his alma mater, and this has every appearance of being the 56-year-old’s last stop. If Richt wins anywhere near the 10 games per season he averaged in 15 years at Georgia, Miami is going to build a statue for him, not run him off.

2. Dabo Swinney, Clemson
(Eighth season, 75-27 record)


A couple of weeks ago, Swinney talked freely with Insider about the idea of growing expectations in the wake of a national championship appearance. He says he doesn’t fret fans’ growing demands, and he says it in a way that seems believable. To Swinney, the focus remains internal; everything else is undermining clutter.

No one’s going to be calling for Swinney’s head anytime soon. His rags-to-riches story now includes multiple ACC titles and Orange Bowl trophies. He’s as safe as safe gets among the country’s top-tier programs.

On his end, the idea of replacing Nick Saban at Alabama, Swinney’s alma mater, has come up more than once.

“Why would he [go there]? I wouldn’t want to fill those shoes,” another ACC head coach said last week. “Anything less than a national title is a failure. He’s got it pretty good where he is.”

1. David Cutcliffe, Duke Blue Devils
(Ninth season; 48-53 record)

The sub-.500 record is very misleading. After going 15-33 in his first four seasons, Cutcliffe is 33-20 since then.

That stretch includes four consecutive bowl appearances, including the 2015 Pinstripe Bowl victory -- the school’s first bowl win since 1960. The Blue Devils also won the ACC Coastal in 2013.

Cutcliffe told Insider recently that this run represents what he had hoped for the program: competitiveness.

Considering its lack of historical success and its academic admissions challenges, a case can be made that Cutcliffe is currently the No. 1 overachiever in major college football. He’s happy and healthy, and so is Duke football.