Rank These Closers

[BigDDude]

again, it depends on format.

So true, so true. And, speaking of format, I am HORRIBLE in thinking outside the Roto box. To the point that, if I were still in the business of giving fantasy advice regularly, I would put a caveat to that effect as my signature line.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I dunno...the question might be who's the shakier down the road...

I understand part of fantasy is to project what will happen later. And therefore since pappelbon is better u would rather have him. But to this point I would much rather have Johnson than pappelbon. His poor era and whip are non issues since they don't pitch often enough. It is similar to when a starter has a bad inning.

 

[Chef99]

I understand part of fantasy is to project what will happen later. And therefore since pappelbon is better u would rather have him. But to this point I would much rather have Johnson than pappelbon. His poor era and whip are non issues since they don't pitch often enough. It is similar to when a starter has a bad inning.

Ok, that's a fair point. And I don't think Johnson has to worry about job security, so that's not a factor.

 

[tlance]

I understand part of fantasy is to project what will happen later. And therefore since pappelbon is better u would rather have him. But to this point I would much rather have Johnson than pappelbon. His poor era and whip are non issues since they don't pitch often enough. It is similar to when a starter has a bad inning.

I have heard that argument before, but it just isn't true.

RPs should help your ratios. In daily roto leagues, especially where most good set-up men are owned and started every day, a bad reliever can crush you.

Let's ignore the saves and think about this:

RP A: 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 50 Ks over 60 IP
RP B: 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 75 Ks over 60 IP

One outing won't hurt much, but over the course of the season? Ouch.

RP A will allow 21 more hits and walks and over 15 more Earned runs with 25 fewer Ks. Now that will absolutely leave a mark in your ratios. That is like adding on 2 epic shellings over the course of the season.

This does not mean that you need to invest in elite closers on draft day. Every RP that I own was outside the top 10 pre-season. What it does mean is that you need to invest in good pitchers and pick and choose your spots. This is why I coveted Kenley Jansen and Frieri pre-season and had League and Johnson on my do not draft list.

Sometimes you miss, as I may have on Wilhelmsen, but when you have one bad closer out of 4 or 5, it is a lot easier to swallow.

 

[Chef99]

I have heard that argument before, but it just isn't true.

RPs should help your ratios. In daily roto leagues, especially where most good set-up men are owned and started every day, a bad reliever can crush you.

Let's ignore the saves and think about this:

RP A: 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 50 Ks over 60 IP
RP B: 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 75 Ks over 60 IP

One outing won't hurt much, but over the course of the season? Ouch.

RP A will allow 21 more hits and walks and over 15 more Earned runs with 25 fewer Ks. Now that will absolutely leave a mark in your ratios. That is like adding on 2 epic shellings over the course of the season.

This does not mean that you need to invest in elite closers on draft day. Every RP that I own was outside the top 10 pre-season. What it does mean is that you need to invest in good pitchers and pick and choose your spots. This is why I coveted Kenley Jansen and Frieri pre-season and had League and Johnson on my do not draft list.

Sometimes you miss, as I may have on Wilhelmsen, but when you have one bad closer out of 4 or 5, it is a lot easier to swallow.

I'm with BigD, only reversed...I was thinking in terms of H2H. Now i'm gettin' dizzy.

Anyway, as far as Whilemsen goes i'm not giving up just yet. There's a pretty good chance he gets it together and reclaims the closer gig.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I have heard that argument before, but it just isn't true.

RPs should help your ratios. In daily roto leagues, especially where most good set-up men are owned and started every day, a bad reliever can crush you.

Let's ignore the saves and think about this:

RP A: 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 50 Ks over 60 IP
RP B: 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 75 Ks over 60 IP

One outing won't hurt much, but over the course of the season? Ouch.

RP A will allow 21 more hits and walks and over 15 more Earned runs with 25 fewer Ks. Now that will absolutely leave a mark in your ratios. That is like adding on 2 epic shellings over the course of the season.

This does not mean that you need to invest in elite closers on draft day. Every RP that I own was outside the top 10 pre-season. What it does mean is that you need to invest in good pitchers and pick and choose your spots. This is why I coveted Kenley Jansen and Frieri pre-season and had League and Johnson on my do not draft list.

Sometimes you miss, as I may have on Wilhelmsen, but when you have one bad closer out of 4 or 5, it is a lot easier to swallow.

Lets not talk about shallow leagues, because chances are you are near elite everywhere... But in deep leagues the average leading ERA is in the low to mid 3.12-3.40. and leading whip is usually in the 1.2s. How does a relief pitcher who pitches less than 80 innings going to truly affect either your ERA or WHIP?? In more shallow leagues i agree, but in any league 11 teams or more, starting 6 or more pitchers including one or more relievers i truly believe going for the relievers who will get more saves is the way to go... and a Pappelbon is inferior to a Jim Johnson(so far into this season).

 

[tlance]

Lets not talk about shallow leagues, because chances are you are near elite everywhere... But in deep leagues the average leading ERA is in the low to mid 3.12-3.40. and leading whip is usually in the 1.2s. How does a relief pitcher who pitches less than 80 innings going to truly affect either your ERA or WHIP?? In more shallow leagues i agree, but in any league 11 teams or more, starting 6 or more pitchers including one or more relievers i truly believe going for the relievers who will get more saves is the way to go... and a Pappelbon is inferior to a Jim Johnson(so far into this season).

Sorry, but that is entirely false.

My $ league is 13 team, daily change with a 1450 Innings max over the course of the season. We have 3 SP spots, 2 RP spots and 4 P spots. In other words, it isn't a super deep league, but it isn't shallow either.

At the moment, the 5th place team in ERA has an ERA of 3.32
The team who is 7th in WHIP is 1.19.

First in each category is 3.04 and 1.13 respectively. Daily changes makes this a totally different ball game, because starters like Dempster are much less valuable than an RP like Melancon or Smyly in this format.

When 7 teams are between 1.13 and 1.19, every little bit does in deed make a difference. Your Johnson to my Holland could net you a couple points in the save category, but it could cost you as many as 10 points between ERA, WHIP and Ks, which are all brutally close.

 

[tlance]

Lets not talk about shallow leagues, because chances are you are near elite everywhere... But in deep leagues the average leading ERA is in the low to mid 3.12-3.40. and leading whip is usually in the 1.2s. How does a relief pitcher who pitches less than 80 innings going to truly affect either your ERA or WHIP?? In more shallow leagues i agree, but in any league 11 teams or more, starting 6 or more pitchers including one or more relievers i truly believe going for the relievers who will get more saves is the way to go... and a Pappelbon is inferior to a Jim Johnson(so far into this season).

Bottom line, it isn't so much about shallow vs. deep, it has everything to do with line-up deadlines and whether or not non-closing RPs are start-able. In weekly leagues, they are not, so bad closers have more value. In daily leagues, they are start-able which changes things significantly.

My first year playing this format (5x5 roto with daily changes and 1450 innings max), I tried to roster any RP who got saves. Early in the season, I offered up my bad closer (can't remember the specifics) for a non-closing RP with elite ratios. The guy I offered this deal to literally laughed at me. He went on to win the league that year, while my team struggled to a third place finish. I was middle of the pack in ERA and WHIP, despite having a pretty strong group of SPs.

Since I have adopted his strategy with regards to RPs, I have two firsts and a third and my teams have always been top 3 in ERA,WHIP and Ks without over-investing in elite SPs. RPs do matter.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Sorry, but that is entirely false.

My $ league is 13 team, daily change with a 1450 Innings max over the course of the season. We have 3 SP spots, 2 RP spots and 4 P spots. In other words, it isn't a super deep league, but it isn't shallow either.

At the moment, the 5th place team in ERA has an ERA of 3.32
The team who is 7th in WHIP is 1.19.

First in each category is 3.04 and 1.13 respectively. Daily changes makes this a totally different ball game, because starters like Dempster are much less valuable than an RP like Melancon or Smyly in this format.

When 7 teams are between 1.13 and 1.19, every little bit does in deed make a difference. Your Johnson to my Holland could net you a couple points in the save category, but it could cost you as many as 10 points between ERA, WHIP and Ks, which are all brutally close.

Tiance, Just for my knowledge, can you tell me what the final leading statistics for ERA and WHIP for last season were... I would like to see if there is a huge difference between your format and the formats i am used to... I always play weekly lineup changes, so maybe the daily lineup change really does change everything...

Lets assume you start 9 pitchers with 2 relievers, lets give 198 innings per SP and 63 innings for the 2 relievers that is 1512 innings lets say you are competing for the lead... therefore your SP ERA is pretty damn good lets give it a 3.15 with a 4.00 ERA for the 2 closers your final ERA is 3.22... that is only a .07 differential... not going to be a significant change...

 

[tlance]

Tiance, Just for my knowledge, can you tell me what the final leading statistics for ERA and WHIP for last season were... I would like to see if there is a huge difference between your format and the formats i am used to... I always play weekly lineup changes, so maybe the daily lineup change really does change everything...

Lets assume you start 9 pitchers with 2 relievers, lets give 198 innings per SP and 63 innings for the 2 relievers that is 1512 innings lets say you are competing for the lead... therefore your SP ERA is pretty damn good lets give it a 3.15 with a 4.00 ERA for the 2 closers your final ERA is 3.22... that is only a .07 differential... not going to be a significant change...

I am not sure what those numbers are for last year.

Thing is, only the crappy teams use that many SPs. Because of daily changes, we all stock up on RPs who have positive impact on ERA and WHIP. There is a direct correlation with RP usage and ERA/WHIP success. Right now, I am using 6 RPs- 4 closers + 2 set-up guys and 4 starters- (Price, Iwakuma, Waino and S. Miller). I recently traded Samardzija for Iwakuma, so my numbers would be a lot better if I had him all year.

All the teams in the top half of ERA and WHIP start at least 4 RPs and use a max of 6 SPs. The team who is in 2nd overall right now is actually punting both wins and Ks and going with an all RP line-up. I have never seen this strategy before, but it is working pretty well since he is first in saves, 1st in WHIP and 3rd in ERA and his hitters are nasty. (I would not recommend this strategy).

When you look at the teams that use a lot of RPs and compare them to teams that don't, SP ERA is on average pretty similar. I have 5 of 6 RPs (Wilhelmsen) who give me positive ratios and help my team move to the top of the pack in those cats. At some point, I will likely trade a closer for another starter because I am a little behind on innings, but for now, the ratios are the only thing that matter.

Also, you are somewhat understating the impact of your closers with the 4.00 ERA. You are correct that they only raise your team ERA by a little bit, but all of my guys are helping mine significantly. Losing out on the positive impact that a good RP will have needs to be considered too. That positive help that you are losing more than doubles the actual impact that a bad reliever has.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I am not sure what those numbers are for last year.

Thing is, only the crappy teams use that many SPs. Because of daily changes, we all stock up on RPs who have positive impact on ERA and WHIP. There is a direct correlation with RP usage and ERA/WHIP success. Right now, I am using 6 RPs- 4 closers + 2 set-up guys and 4 starters- (Price, Iwakuma, Waino and S. Miller). I recently traded Samardzija for Iwakuma, so my numbers would be a lot better if I had him all year.

All the teams in the top half of ERA and WHIP start at least 4 RPs and use a max of 6 SPs. The team who is in 2nd overall right now is actually punting both wins and Ks and going with an all RP line-up. I have never seen this strategy before, but it is working pretty well since he is first in saves, 1st in WHIP and 3rd in ERA and his hitters are nasty. (I would not recommend this strategy).

When you look at the teams that use a lot of RPs and compare them to teams that don't, SP ERA is on average pretty similar. I have 5 of 6 RPs (Wilhelmsen) who give me positive ratios and help my team move to the top of the pack in those cats. At some point, I will likely trade a closer for another starter because I am a little behind on innings, but for now, the ratios are the only thing that matter.

Also, you are somewhat understating the impact of your closers with the 4.00 ERA. You are correct that they only raise your team ERA by a little bit, but all of my guys are helping mine significantly. Losing out on the positive impact that a good RP will have needs to be considered too. That positive help that you are losing more than doubles the actual impact that a bad reliever has.

Your league sounds like an exception since it seems like
1. you have both saves and holds as categories.
2. you start so many closers that having one closer with more saves than the other is irrelevant...(its like in a normal league where you start so many SPs that having one pitcher who wins less due to bad team does not hurt you-so why take a pitcher who sucks at everything else besides wins)


But i am sure you can see my point, whether you agree with the philosophy or not is your choice...

 

[tlance]

Your league sounds like an exception since it seems like
1. you have both saves and holds as categories.
2. you start so many closers that having one closer with more saves than the other is irrelevant...(its like in a normal league where you start so many SPs that having one pitcher who wins less due to bad team does not hurt you-so why take a pitcher who sucks at everything else besides wins)


But i am sure you can see my point, whether you agree with the philosophy or not is your choice...

I agree with you that in weekly leagues, closer ERA/WHIP does not matter as much. That was my original point that this question is format dependent.

No, we don't count holds, but a reliever who has a 2.00 ERA and .95 WHIP with better than a K per inning helps in 3 places even if they don't get any saves or wins, which they will occasionally. A starter with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP and a 7 K/9 is only helping in 1 category (wins) and hurting in 3.

Since we have a season innings max the K category really acts more like K/9 instead of just Ks since every team will get to, or close to the max, assuming they aren't doing something crazy.

In a weekly league, a set-up guy will place you at too great a disadvantage in Ks and Ws with a minimal impact on ERA and WHIP. That is the difference. I can still use all my starters along with these guys. I don't have to pick between them, and the rest of the league isn't going to get way ahead of my innings count since we all end up at the same place.