Power Five Breakaway - Is the Sky Falling?

[olympicoscar]

None of those 4 teams would be willing to give up the money they get from the SEC/B1G. What you just typed isn't going to happen. And, while the P5 might split off, the conferences won't start splintering - they simply believe in different things. The B1G and PAC actually care about education, the B12 and SEC not so much. The SEC isn't going to share the wealth generated by their crazy ass fans with the PAC. So, the umbrella organization might change, but the member conferences won't go away.

It's just a thought. A lot of posters have brought this up to me. Money is definitely the name of the game.

 

[NolePride]

It's just a thought. A lot of posters have brought this up to me. Money is definitely the name of the game.

Prestige is the name of the game. Money is an action step, toward the goal.

The Big Boys of each league MUST protect their annual, historical, bottom feeders. Even in the
SEC, that has more name schools than anybody...they must protect the bottom tier...Ole Miss, Miss St,
Vandy, So Car & Kentucky.

That's why they could never allow the NCAA to establish a playoff system where all the Conf Champs got a bid.
Those schools would be hard-pressed to recruit against UCF, Troy, Appy St, Boise St and a few others.

If a player was a 3-star and he wanted to participate in the playoffs, where do you think he would go to
school...Vandy or Appy St? Kansas or UCF? Oregon St or Boise St? That's a no-brainer. If the recruiting
is wrecked at the bottom feeders of the P5 leagues, then the disparity within each league would become
more overwhelming than it is right now.

Do y'all have any idea on how much money is wasted with all these "needed facilities?" Tens of Millions
of dollars...every year on lavish eye sores. They are all being priced out of the business.

We could be at a breaking point right now. Some folks are gonna just throw up their hands and look
for a schedule where they have 6 away games and 4 of them they can bus to. Motel 6 will do a good business
and leave a light on for them while the Hyatt or the Marriot will take a big hit.

 

[Deep Creek]

Prestige is the name of the game. Money is an action step, toward the goal.

The Big Boys of each league MUST protect their annual, historical, bottom feeders. Even in the
SEC, that has more name schools than anybody...they must protect the bottom tier...Ole Miss, Miss St,
Vandy, So Car & Kentucky.

That's why they could never allow the NCAA to establish a playoff system where all the Conf Champs got a bid.
Those schools would be hard-pressed to recruit against UCF, Troy, Appy St, Boise St and a few others.

If a player was a 3-star and he wanted to participate in the playoffs, where do you think he would go to
school...Vandy or Appy St? Kansas or UCF? Oregon St or Boise St? That's a no-brainer. If the recruiting
is wrecked at the bottom feeders of the P5 leagues, then the disparity within each league would become
more overwhelming than it is right now.

Do y'all have any idea on how much money is wasted with all these "needed facilities?" Tens of Millions
of dollars...every year on lavish eye sores. They are all being priced out of the business.

We could be at a breaking point right now. Some folks are gonna just throw up their hands and look
for a schedule where they have 6 away games and 4 of them they can bus to. Motel 6 will do a good business
and leave a light on for them while the Hyatt or the Marriot will take a big hit.

I never thought about this but it makes complete sense. It is also why they are willing to share the money...that they generate.

 

[NolePride]

I never thought about this but it makes complete sense. It is also why they are willing to share the money...that they generate.

Exactly.

They had to pay big money to the mid-majors to keep them from breaking off for their own playoff.

They need those schools. The NCAA has no balls or they would have confronted them on the playoff issue.
They probably didn't because it would evolve into a "face-saving" fight where the Power 5 would be forced
to bolt, rather than share that "prestige." There are to many unknown variables right now, but eventually
we may see some leaguess trade member schools.

We talk about the PAC as a West Coast League and it is...but Washington is 1500 miles from Arizona.
There are only 3 schools in the league where Washington can even think about bussing to. (WSU, Oregon
and Oreg St). Football ain't the problem. Tennis, Golf, sailing, whatever, those are real issues where they have to
put non-revenue producing teams on airplanes. The ACC is a total disaster in that regard. These leagues
are all spread out to far. It makes sense in football season because you can have league games going on in 3 different
time zones. That gives you multiple kickoff times for TV...but it is the kiss of financial death with the non-revenue
producing sports.

The leagues need to be more condensed OR enlarge to 16 teams and only play members in your division. (Area)
Then your Conf Title game can become the first step of the playoff.

 

[Olyduck]

Notre Dame and North Dakota State would be allowed to join. Also Montana. There is definitely room for this. It would involve 128 teams.

Montana and NDSU are not of the 130 FBS programs. If you want them in you have to drop 4 current fbs

 

[Deep Creek]

Exactly.

They had to pay big money to the mid-majors to keep them from breaking off for their own playoff.

They need those schools. The NCAA has no balls or they would have confronted them on the playoff issue.
They probably didn't because it would evolve into a "face-saving" fight where the Power 5 would be forced
to bolt, rather than share that "prestige." There are to many unknown variables right now, but eventually
we may see some leaguess trade member schools.

We talk about the PAC as a West Coast League and it is...but Washington is 1500 miles from Arizona.
There are only 3 schools in the league where Washington can even think about bussing to. (WSU, Oregon
and Oreg St). Football ain't the problem. Tennis, Golf, sailing, whatever, those are real issues where they have to
put non-revenue producing teams on airplanes. The ACC is a total disaster in that regard. These leagues
are all spread out to far. It makes sense in football season because you can have league games going on in 3 different
time zones. That gives you multiple kickoff times for TV...but it is the kiss of financial death with the non-revenue
producing sports.

The leagues need to be more condensed OR enlarge to 16 teams and only play members in your division. (Area)
Then your Conf Title game can become the first step of the playoff.

I've said for a good while now that I think we need some "Football Only" conferences because the travel distance really isn't an issue since a team would only have to go those distances every other year....err.... every four years...err.... every eight years....err...NEVER! Has Georgia been to Kyle Field yet?

 

[olympicoscar]

Prestige is the name of the game. Money is an action step, toward the goal.

The Big Boys of each league MUST protect their annual, historical, bottom feeders. Even in the
SEC, that has more name schools than anybody...they must protect the bottom tier...Ole Miss, Miss St,
Vandy, So Car & Kentucky.

That's why they could never allow the NCAA to establish a playoff system where all the Conf Champs got a bid.
Those schools would be hard-pressed to recruit against UCF, Troy, Appy St, Boise St and a few others.

If a player was a 3-star and he wanted to participate in the playoffs, where do you think he would go to
school...Vandy or Appy St? Kansas or UCF? Oregon St or Boise St? That's a no-brainer. If the recruiting
is wrecked at the bottom feeders of the P5 leagues, then the disparity within each league would become
more overwhelming than it is right now.

Do y'all have any idea on how much money is wasted with all these "needed facilities?" Tens of Millions
of dollars...every year on lavish eye sores. They are all being priced out of the business.

We could be at a breaking point right now. Some folks are gonna just throw up their hands and look
for a schedule where they have 6 away games and 4 of them they can bus to. Motel 6 will do a good business
and leave a light on for them while the Hyatt or the Marriot will take a big hit.

That's why you don't want a system where all the conference champs get a bid. March Madness does it perfect, but this is football and we're not going to have a 64 team tournament.

At this point in time, the disparity between haves and have nots is getting larger. That's what happens with the communication that's available today. Everyone can observe where other good players are going and they make their decision based on that.

Football is like the economy. Everyone started out relatively even, and then when communication and transportation and knowledge increased, haves and have nots began to appear. Then disparity began to engulf the system.

 

[olympicoscar]

Montana and NDSU are not of the 130 FBS programs. If you want them in you have to drop 4 current fbs

Yes I'm aware of that. There will always be schools trying to get into the mix. Those are just two schools that must be looking up.

 

[Olyduck]

Yes I'm aware of that. There will always be schools trying to get into the mix. Those are just two schools that must be looking up.

and then what? your initial idea was 8 conferences with 16 each. if those 2 move up do 2 others drop? do you get 2 conferences with 17? or 7 at 16 and one with 18?

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Why we may be reaching a tipping point for the Power Five to break away from the FBS

Why we may be reaching a tipping point for the Power Five to break away from the FBS

Would love it. Been saying this for the last like 10 years. It's entirely stupid that Eastern Michigan and Toledo compete for the same title as Alabama. And yeah, they stick around because of money. And yeah many only exist because of the money they get from being grouped in with the P5. But I really hope this causes a split. It would be so cool if we had like 65-ish schools and all games are cross P5.

I still think the best playoff format is P5 winners + a few at large bits. Remove the G5 entirely from the equation.

 

[Wild Turkey]

But they have never done it.

He makes some valid points however, he is pointing more toward the majority of schools leaving the NCAA, not just
the Power 5 teams. I still doubt whether all the Power 5 schools would bolt, let alone another 25 or 30 schools.

The Bottom half of each P5 League cannot compete with the top half of that league now for recruiting.
Most of the leagues are very top heavy.

Here's a quick look at recruiting between 2013-2016 of the Power 5 leagues.
Top 7 of the SEC signed 59 4-stars the bottom 7 signed 8 5-stars
Top 7 of the SEC signed 328 4-stars...the bottom 7 signed 140

ACC Top 7 22 5-stars Bottom 7 3 5-stars
ACC Top 7 179 4-stars...bottom 7 26 4-stars

Big10 Top 7 11 5-stars...bottom 7 0 5-stars
Big10 Top 7 199 4-stars...bottom 7 27 4-stars

Pac12 Top 6 21 5-stars...bottom 6 0 5-stars
PAC12 Top 6 183 4-stars...bottom 6 40 4-stars

Big12 Top 5 4 5-stars...bottom 5 0 5 stars
Big12 Top 5 115 4-stars...bottom 29 4 stars

If they bolt there will be no 1-aa's to help a team's record and very few mid-majors for the teams
to schedule. If you're Vandy are you gonna bolt just to be pummeled every week.

TV money is all but maxed out. With streaming becoming more mainstream TV money may vanish in
10 years, or be severely lessened. Then what do they do?

Schools after just one year of this stuff are already dropping a number of athletic teams at their institutions.
The female problem is with us to stay and that is going to eat up any profits.

The P5 achools formed the Playoff to satisfy both their bottom feeder members and the rest of the
mid-majors, rather than allow the NCAA to do it, because they would have put in ALL the conf champs.

It has always been known that the P5 could take the majority of money with them, but they have never
done it. There has to be a reason why they have never done it. I don't know what it is, bit I kinda
think that they believe that many of their member institutions would not bolt with them and they would be stuck
with just 40 or 50 teams total having to play each other and lose their appeal.

There is so much wrong with this post, it would be too hard to correct everything.

Here are the big points:

1. Just because the P5 broke away doesn’t mean they can’t play teams that aren’t P5. That’s ridiculous and without the away game funding/money half of D1 programs would fold.

2. College football is not even close to making out on money. The NFL is and will most likely see a retraction but conferences like the SEC are very undervalued right now especially when you think ESPN paid a billion for MNF alone. The new SEC deal when they are done with CBS is going to be huge. The P5 conferences haven’t touched the billion made off the basketball tournament which they could essentially steal.

3. Conferences being top heavy has no real relevance as that is par for the course.

 

[olympicoscar]

and then what? your initial idea was 8 conferences with 16 each. if those 2 move up do 2 others drop? do you get 2 conferences with 17? or 7 at 16 and one with 18?

Everybody doesn't have to be in a conference, and the number of teams in FBS is always changing as programs decide to move up. There's a lot of schools that are currently FBS that don't belong in a power 8 conference. But, they can also work their way up if that's what they desire.

 

[Olyduck]

Everybody doesn't have to be in a conference, and the number of teams in FBS is always changing as programs decide to move up. There's a lot of schools that are currently FBS that don't belong in a power 8 conference. But, they can also work their way up if that's what they desire.

I think you just explained why there is 130 teams in FBS and only 65 are considered P5. and teams like Utah, TCU, Louisville have moved up and shown they can be competitive. while teams like ODU and App st show yes they needed to move up from FCS but they landed where they should.
so as for a power 8 of 16 teams each. NO

 

[NolePride]

There is so much wrong with this post, it would be too hard to correct everything.

Here are the big points:

1. Just because the P5 broke away doesn’t mean they can’t play teams that aren’t P5. That’s ridiculous and without the away game funding/money half of D1 programs would fold.

2. College football is not even close to making out on money. The NFL is and will most likely see a retraction but conferences like the SEC are very undervalued right now especially when you think ESPN paid a billion for MNF alone. The new SEC deal when they are done with CBS is going to be huge. The P5 conferences haven’t touched the billion made off the basketball tournament which they could essentially steal.

3. Conferences being top heavy has no real relevance as that is par for the course.

Let me concern myself with your first mistake. If the P5 schools broke away from the NCAA, the NCAA would
forbid its remaining members schools to play them. San Diego University plays in front of 10K fans tops. They
play the majority of their away games on the East Coast against other non-cholarship league teams and they are
able to survive. Nah, I think the teams that remained in the NCAA would survive. But those P5 schools
would face severe money shortages when they have to send their golf teams and baseball teams across the country
just to fill out their schedules. Who would those teams play in mid-week games?

The P5 schools aren't going anywhere...except for the possibility that some may switch leagues to cut back
on expenses. If there are only 22 schools that make money in their athletic department and there are 65
P5 teams...the basic math would indicate that 43 of the P5 teams lose money on athletics. You think those
schools are gonna want to increase spending for non-revenue producing sports?

 

[Wild Turkey]

Let me concern myself with your first mistake. If the P5 schools broke away from the NCAA, the NCAA would
forbid its remaining members schools to play them. San Diego University plays in front of 10K fans tops. They
play the majority of their away games on the East Coast against other non-cholarship league teams and they are
able to survive. Nah, I think the teams that remained in the NCAA would survive. But those P5 schools
would face severe money shortages when they have to send their golf teams and baseball teams across the country
just to fill out their schedules. Who would those teams play in mid-week games?

The P5 schools aren't going anywhere...except for the possibility that some may switch leagues to cut back
on expenses. If there are only 22 schools that make money in their athletic department and there are 65
P5 teams...the basic math would indicate that 43 of the P5 teams lose money on athletics. You think those
schools are gonna want to increase spending for non-revenue producing sports?

1. If the P5 schools break away then they take March Madness with them and the NCAA is done because that is 80% of their budget.
2. No way possible they could ban anyone from playing P5 schools because it would bankrupt half the AD departments.

People are going to find out really quickly the NCAA is not needed especially since we are about to start paying players anyway. My guess is D1 splits into three categories where you have the P5 as Tier 1 and conferences run their own compliance with agreed-upon criteria, Midlevel programs are Tier 2 and form their own non-profit organization to fill the void left by the NCAA and a number will simply fall back into DII which will probably loosen scholarship restrictions.

It wouldn't be more than a nice bump in the road.

 

[Olyduck]

1. If the P5 schools break away then they take March Madness with them and the NCAA is done because that is 80% of their budget.
2. No way possible they could ban anyone from playing P5 schools because it would bankrupt half the AD departments.

People are going to find out really quickly the NCAA is not needed especially since we are about to start paying players anyway. My guess is D1 splits into three categories where you have the P5 as Tier 1 and conferences run their own compliance with agreed-upon criteria, Midlevel programs are Tier 2 and form their own non-profit organization to fill the void left by the NCAA and a number will simply fall back into DII which will probably loosen scholarship restrictions.

It wouldn't be more than a nice bump in the road.

NIL is not schools paying players.

 

[olympicoscar]

I think you just explained why there is 130 teams in FBS and only 65 are considered P5. and teams like Utah, TCU, Louisville have moved up and shown they can be competitive. while teams like ODU and App st show yes they needed to move up from FCS but they landed where they should.
so as for a power 8 of 16 teams each. NO

A lot of the MAC schools are in the same boat, as are several other conferences like the Sun Belt. This would have to be a slow process adding one new power 5 conference every 5 years.

 

[LawDawg]

1. If the P5 schools break away then they take March Madness with them and the NCAA is done because that is 80% of their budget.
2. No way possible they could ban anyone from playing P5 schools because it would bankrupt half the AD departments.

People are going to find out really quickly the NCAA is not needed especially since we are about to start paying players anyway. My guess is D1 splits into three categories where you have the P5 as Tier 1 and conferences run their own compliance with agreed-upon criteria, Midlevel programs are Tier 2 and form their own non-profit organization to fill the void left by the NCAA and a number will simply fall back into DII which will probably loosen scholarship restrictions.

It wouldn't be more than a nice bump in the road.

There will have to be some centralized governance. Keep in mind the NCAA is the schools. It's not it's like some organization that created itself and then went to the schools and said, "hire us to govern you." Splitting off from the NCAA will allow the splitting schools to create their own governing organization that will be accountable to their needs, and not be influenced by small schools whose interests don't align with the bigger schools. No way the B1G agrees to be in an league that lets the SEC run its own compliance.

The March Madness thing is interesting from a legal perspective. The March Madness, Final Four, Elite 8 and other such brands/marks belong to the NCAA, which includes the smaller schools. Doubt the P5 can just leave and take those with them without compensation to the smaller schools. They could start their own tournament, but they would have to name it something else. That will be an interesting aspect of this.

You are totally correct about March Madness funding most of the P5 and lower schools.

 

[Wild Turkey]

There will have to be some centralized governance. Keep in mind the NCAA is the schools. It's not it's like some organization that created itself and then went to the schools and said, "hire us to govern you." Splitting off from the NCAA will allow the splitting schools to create their own governing organization that will be accountable to their needs, and not be influenced by small schools whose interests don't align with the bigger schools. No way the B1G agrees to be in an league that lets the SEC run its own compliance.

The March Madness thing is interesting from a legal perspective. The March Madness, Final Four, Elite 8 and other such brands/marks belong to the NCAA, which includes the smaller schools. Doubt the P5 can just leave and take those with them without compensation to the smaller schools. They could start their own tournament, but they would have to name it something else. That will be an interesting aspect of this.

You are totally correct about March Madness funding most of the P5 and lower schools.

They will have to create their own branding or buy them out of bankruptcy when the NCAA folds.

Centralized organization isn’t needed at the P5 level. They can just form a committee and agree on basics then conferences police themselves. It’s going to happen anyway and is pretty much what is going on now.

I guess they would need some type of penalty committed if things get elevated but my guess is conferences will take the right actions to avoid it.

 

[LawDawg]

They will have to create their own branding or buy them out of bankruptcy when the NCAA folds.

Centralized organization isn’t needed at the P5 level. They can just form a committee and agree on basics then conferences police themselves. It’s going to happen anyway and is pretty much what is going on now.

I guess they would need some type of penalty committed if things get elevated but my guess is conferences will take the right actions to avoid it.

So, all the cheating is simply going to go away because the NCAA is gone? I get that you might get a more streamlined NCAA-type organization, but there is no way your can run a 4 billion dollar sports league without an centralized rules and enforcement group. You guys already cheat badly enough, imagine what you would do if there was no enforcement!