Playoff Odds

[gp956]

Most of you know baseball prospectus calculates playoff odds every day. Usually late in the day, but before the West Coast games are completed. Therefore, they are always a day late for us.

Anyway, i think it's interesting that at the beginning of play today, 9/5, the Giants had over taken the Padres as the most likely division winner when using the Pecota system. This system makes it's prediction based on the expected number of runs created by the most likely lineups.

Here's the numbers going into 9/5:


...........Projected Wins.......Odds West Champs
Giants.......89.5..................48.51398
Padres.......89.1..................41.80842
Rockies......86.3..................9.45843
Dodgers......81.1..................0.21917
Dbacks...... 68.3..................0

 

[Heathbar012]

Wow. If 90 wins takes the division, that would be something. I still think it will have to be closer to 95, which would mean the Giants could only lose 6 more games. Is 92 wins a more logical hope? Would that get it done? I guess it depends on who the wins are against. Thanks for posting this , gp.

 

[gp956]

Wow. If 90 wins takes the division, that would be something. I still think it will have to be closer to 95, which would mean the Giants could only lose 6 more games. Is 92 wins a more logical hope? Would that get it done? I guess it depends on who the wins are against. Thanks for posting this , gp.

I'm projecting the Giants to get 13 more wins to the end of the season. So that gives them 90 wins.

Pecota is predicting the Giants with 90.4
ELO, which factors strength of opponents, predicts 90.3.

I've got the Padres winning 12 more games, so they will finish with 89 wins.

Pecota has them at 89.1
ELO 90.2

Should come down to that final weekend series.

 

[TOX1]

I wouldn't sweat it guys. The Padres are in a total free fall (obviously)....the division is yours for the taking.

Good luck!

 

[filosofy29]

I wouldn't sweat it guys. The Padres are in a total free fall (obviously)....the division is yours for the taking.

Good luck!

What up Tox? Your Phils look pretty strong ever since they got their backbone back (imhumbleo) in Utley.

 

[SFAnthem]

Just came back from Vegas for the holiday weekend..at the beginning of the week, the good guys we're getting 10-1 to win the pennant, Pads getting 5-2.

I went back to the sportsbook right before my flight on Tuesday..odds dropped to 6-1

Vegas likes the Giants

 

[calsnowskier]

Just came back from Vegas for the holiday weekend..at the beginning of the week, the good guys we're getting 10-1 to win the pennant, Pads getting 5-2.

I went back to the sportsbook right before my flight on Tuesday..odds dropped to 6-1

Vegas likes the Giants

Did you get in on the 10-1 odds?

 

[SFAnthem]

Did you get in on the 10-1 odds?

No and I knew better!

Celebrating a friend's bachelor party..other things took precedence

The only time I had to cruise back to the sportsbook was on my last day and with the Giants on fire coming out of the Dodger series, there was the dramatic line and money change.

*btw, I did get in on good odds on the Gmen from the beginning of the year. 3-1 taking the west, 11-1 on making the WS, 24-1 on winning the whole thing. If they take the West, I'm playing with house money.. ahh who cares, I just want to see the Giants make a run at a ring.

*49ers were getting 11-1 winning the NFC and 27-1 on winning the whole thing

 

[TOX1]

What up Tox? Your Phils look pretty strong ever since they got their backbone back (imhumbleo) in Utley.

+26 to you in the rep dept!


Yeah......you're damn straight!!

{ just got done roasting those Marlins 10-6! )

 

[calsnowskier]

No and I knew better!

Celebrating a friend's bachelor party..other things took precedence

The only time I had to cruise back to the sportsbook was on my last day and with the Giants on fire coming out of the Dodger series, there was the dramatic line and money change.

*btw, I did get in on good odds on the Gmen from the beginning of the year. 3-1 taking the west, 11-1 on making the WS, 24-1 on winning the whole thing. If they take the West, I'm playing with house money.. ahh who cares, I just want to see the Giants make a run at a ring.

*49ers were getting 11-1 winning the NFC and 27-1 on winning the whole thing

I don't see the Niners coming out of the NFC. Their D is not to that caliber yet, although they certainly have the individual players. If Smith is able to NOT LOSE games, they should run through the West with out much of a sweat, though. Let's just hope we can make some noise in the play-offs.PS

I work with 2 HUGE Eagle fans, and they were basically laughing at the Niners for picking up Westbrook. I think he will be good as a 1/4 time back, but they know hoim better than I do...

 

[SFAnthem]

I don't see the Niners coming out of the NFC. Their D is not to that caliber yet, although they certainly have the individual players. If Smith is able to NOT LOSE games, they should run through the West with out much of a sweat, though. Let's just hope we can make some noise in the play-offs.PS

I work with 2 HUGE Eagle fans, and they were basically laughing at the Niners for picking up Westbrook. I think he will be good as a 1/4 time back, but they know hoim better than I do...

Oh, I agree..SB is a bit of a reach. I do feel that the team is coming together nicely and if A. Smith can be more of the ball controlled, occasional offensive threat displayed in the 2nd halves of some of the games last year then the team as a whole is on pace for a SB run next year. Some nice playoff experience this year would be great.


A real good friend of mine is a Iggles fan, too. (has the tattered bright green Cunningham jersey to prove it) He thinks the opposite way and wishes they kept Westbrook for the occasional breather to McCoy..it would be hard to be the backup after so many years of being the man.

I still like Westbrook's elusiveness coming out of the backfield..he can try to catch those passes that A.Smith somehow tries to bullet even though the guys is 10 feet away!

 

[Heathbar012]

Oh, I agree..SB is a bit of a reach. I do feel that the team is coming together nicely and if A. Smith can be more of the ball controlled, occasional offensive threat displayed in the 2nd halves of some of the games last year then the team as a whole is on pace for a SB run next year. Some nice playoff experience this year would be great.


A real good friend of mine is a Iggles fan, too. (has the tattered bright green Cunningham jersey to prove it) He thinks the opposite way and wishes they kept Westbrook for the occasional breather to McCoy..it would be hard to be the backup after so many years of being the man.

I still like Westbrook's elusiveness coming out of the backfield..he can try to catch those passes that A.Smith somehow tries to bullet even though the guys is 10 feet away!

+1. And he's a great blocker. He was made to be a third down back at the end of his career. Throw in Dixon as a quality goal line rusher, and hopefully, Gore can be productive and healthy for the next 3 to 4 years. Really, the success of the Niners hinges on health (as always), Alex Smith (as expected) and the defensive secondary (the NFL really loves to throw now). Of course, a lot of that hinges on the success of the front 7, but there isn't much worry there, if the starters stay healthy (of course another sack specialist wouldn't hurt). The O-line is still a question mark, but I have confidence in them for the first time in almost a decade. Plus, the receiving core is scary good. When Josh Morgan is your fourth or fifth option, you're doing something right.

As far as Eagles fans, there seem to be a ton of them in the Bay Area. I used to work with a couple, and they are very fun to talk football with. They might be the most knowledgeable football fans in the country, and it seems a lot of them had the good sense to get the Phuck outta Philly (I know we can curse. I just couldn't miss out on the opportunity for such a horrible play on words... or phonics, as the case may be).

 

[SFAnthem]

+1. And he's a great blocker. He was made to be a third down back at the end of his career. Throw in Dixon as a quality goal line rusher, and hopefully, Gore can be productive and healthy for the next 3 to 4 years. Really, the success of the Niners hinges on health (as always), Alex Smith (as expected) and the defensive secondary (the NFL really loves to throw now). Of course, a lot of that hinges on the success of the front 7, but there isn't much worry there, if the starters stay healthy (of course another sack specialist wouldn't hurt). The O-line is still a question mark, but I have confidence in them for the first time in almost a decade. Plus, the receiving core is scary good. When Josh Morgan is your fourth or fifth option, you're doing something right.

As far as Eagles fans, there seem to be a ton of them in the Bay Area. I used to work with a couple, and they are very fun to talk football with. They might be the most knowledgeable football fans in the country, and it seems a lot of them had the good sense to get the Phuck outta Philly (I know we can curse. I just couldn't miss out on the opportunity for such a horrible play on words... or phonics, as the case may be).

yeah, what I like about the additions of Westbrook and Dixon is that they both add another dimension to the O. Absolute must..Dixon has to hold onto the ball in short yardage situations. That was where the niners overstretched Gore in the past.

Sucks that Heitmann went down but nice to see Baas step it up. With the added rhinos from the draft, I want to see every play go downhill to soften up the opponent's d-line.

I see the Niners and Giants going through similar transitions the past few year. Rebuilding the core - O-line and D-line are keys to winning just how the Giants' pitching is in baseball.

Both teams are maybe a year away but it would be nice to see both make a playoff run this year.

 

[Heathbar012]

yeah, what I like about the additions of Westbrook and Dixon is that they both add another dimension to the O. Absolute must..Dixon has to hold onto the ball in short yardage situations. That was where the niners overstretched Gore in the past.

Sucks that Heitmann went down but nice to see Baas step it up. With the added rhinos from the draft, I want to see every play go downhill to soften up the opponent's d-line.

I see the Niners and Giants going through similar transitions the past few year. Rebuilding the core - O-line and D-line are keys to winning just how the Giants' pitching is in baseball.

Both teams are maybe a year away but it would be nice to see both make a playoff run this year.

Preach on! Agree 100%.

 

[gp956]

Updated Playoff Odds (pecota):



......................Wins..........Div Champ......WC.......Playoffs

Braves................91.8............27.2........46.7........73.9
Giants................91.2............54.1........10.3........64.4
Padres................90.0............28.5........11.7........40.9
Rockies...............89.2............17.4........09.2........26.6

 

[tzill]

Updated Playoff Odds (pecota):



......................Wins..........Div Champ......WC.......Playoffs

Braves................91.8............27.2........46.7........73.9
Giants................91.2............54.1........10.3........64.4
Padres................90.0............28.5........11.7........40.9
Rockies...............89.2............17.4........09.2........26.6

where do the Reds and Phillies figure in?

 

[gp956]

where do the Reds and Phillies figure in?

Red's have a 95% chance of winning their division with 93 wins, while Phillies have a 72.8% chance of winning theirs with 93.9 wins.

 

[tzill]

Red's have a 95% chance of winning their division with 93 wins, while Phillies have a 72.8% chance of winning theirs with 93.9 wins.

Thanks...I'm still holding out hope that the Giants finish with the best record in the NL.

 

[calsnowskier]

Thanks...I'm still holding out hope that the Giants finish with the best record in the NL.

I don't care if we have the best record, I just want to make sure we get the Reds in the NLDS. I dont want anything to do with Phi or Atl until the NLCS.

 

[filosofy29]

I just want them to make the playoffs.