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After holding the highest-scoring offense in NFL history to only eight points in Super Bowl XLVIII, there is little doubt the Seattle Seahawks' Legion of Boom ended last season as the best secondary in the NFL. With Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas signed to long-term contract extensions, it would seem that this group is poised to keep that title for a long time.
However, that title reign may come to a close much sooner than expected, due to a strong challenge from the New England Patriots. When the offseason acquisitions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner are added to the other personnel changes made in Seattle and New England, a strong case can be made that the Patriots will have the best secondary in the NFL in 2014 -- not the Seahawks. Let's look at the key reasons why.
State of the secondaries, as of the end of the 2013 season
A good place to start this comparison is by noting where these secondaries were at the conclusion of last season.
Seattle led the league in yards per attempt, and its 6.0-yard mark gave it a 1-yard lead over New England (7.0 YPA, tied for 11th).
The Seahawks' overall lead did not show up in the areas of vertical YPA (defined as YPA allowed on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) or stretch vertical YPA (passes thrown 20 or more yards). Seattle's 10.2 VYPA (tied for ninth) was nearly identical to New England's 10.3 VYPA (tied for 12th), and the Patriots' 10.3 SVYPA (fourth) bested the Seahawks' 11.8 SVYPA (12th).
Seattle did notch a significant lead in the percentage of passes that ended up as interceptions or near-interceptions (a near-interception being defined as a pass that hits a defender's catching frame but doesn't result in a pick). Its 9.2 percent total led the league and was just over 2 percentage points higher than New England's 6.9-percent mark (eighth).
Having noted this, New England's secondary accounted for 38 interceptions/near-interceptions, a mark that was equal to the total Seattle's secondary posted last year, so the split between these groups was not as large as the percentages would indicate.
Bottom line: The Seahawks had the league's best secondary during the 2013 season, but the Patriots weren't all that far behind.
Impact of personnel changes
The retooling of the Patriots' secondary looks like it will shore up this group's major weaknesses.
A detailed analysis of their relative metrics indicates that replacing Aqib Talib (who signed with the Denver Broncos) with Revis will save the Patriots somewhere in the range of 200 yards this season. Revis is not known as being quite as accomplished a ball hawk as Talib, but that study illustrated how Revis is likely to generate just as many pick chances, and possibly more interceptions, than Talib posted last season.
As significant as that upgrade would be, it likely pales in comparison to the impact Browner will have. Browner had a lower YPA than Sherman in 2012 (6.2 for Browner, 7.4 for Sherman) and should provide a huge coverage improvement over Alfonzo Dennard (9.3 YPA) and Kyle Arrington (9.2 YPA). Browner has nearly as many career interceptions (10) as Dennard and Arrington combined (13) and thus could improve the turnover total as well. Any impact will be delayed until at least Week 5, as Browner will start the season by serving a four-game suspension, but that may not be an issue given that New England begins the season with games against Miami, Minnesota, Oakland and Kansas City -- teams that all have issues in the passing game.
With strong safety Kam Chancellor already signed to a long-term deal, the core of the Seattle secondary will not change, but there are two places where personnel transitions could affect this group.
The first is at right cornerback. Byron Maxwell looks to have the inside track for this role, and his 5.5 YPA last season indicates he should be up to the task. The big issue is Maxwell will be hard pressed to improve on this total. If his production falls back closer to his 2012 coverage level (8.7 YPA), this could be an area that negatively affects Seattle's overall metrics.
The second is at slot cornerback. Jeremy Lane will be a front-runner for this role, but his 131 yards allowed on 15 targets last year netted out to an unacceptable 8.7 YPA. If he doesn't improve on this figure, Tharold Simon could take over. Simon has performed well this offseason, making ESPN Insider Mike Sando's list of 10 players generating buzz at organized team activities, and had a history of quality coverage and ball hawk metrics at LSU, but it is far from a given that a first-year starter will be a lockdown coverage player, no matter how talented he is.
Bottom line
The Seahawks have a collection of secondary stars with a legacy of success, but they also have to battle complacency, the Madden curse and the Plexiglas principle and do so with a number of unproven players.
Those factors are likely to open a door for a competitor to pass them, and New England, with its additions of a likely future Hall of Famer and one of Seattle's best cornerbacks, is the team likeliest to vault its way to the top. Don't be surprised if by season's end we are calling the Patriots' secondary the best in the NFL.
By K.C. Joyner
ESPN Insider: NFL - New England Patriots' secondary will surpass the Seattle Seahawks' in 2014 - ESPN
However, that title reign may come to a close much sooner than expected, due to a strong challenge from the New England Patriots. When the offseason acquisitions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner are added to the other personnel changes made in Seattle and New England, a strong case can be made that the Patriots will have the best secondary in the NFL in 2014 -- not the Seahawks. Let's look at the key reasons why.
State of the secondaries, as of the end of the 2013 season
A good place to start this comparison is by noting where these secondaries were at the conclusion of last season.
Seattle led the league in yards per attempt, and its 6.0-yard mark gave it a 1-yard lead over New England (7.0 YPA, tied for 11th).
The Seahawks' overall lead did not show up in the areas of vertical YPA (defined as YPA allowed on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) or stretch vertical YPA (passes thrown 20 or more yards). Seattle's 10.2 VYPA (tied for ninth) was nearly identical to New England's 10.3 VYPA (tied for 12th), and the Patriots' 10.3 SVYPA (fourth) bested the Seahawks' 11.8 SVYPA (12th).
Seattle did notch a significant lead in the percentage of passes that ended up as interceptions or near-interceptions (a near-interception being defined as a pass that hits a defender's catching frame but doesn't result in a pick). Its 9.2 percent total led the league and was just over 2 percentage points higher than New England's 6.9-percent mark (eighth).
Having noted this, New England's secondary accounted for 38 interceptions/near-interceptions, a mark that was equal to the total Seattle's secondary posted last year, so the split between these groups was not as large as the percentages would indicate.
Bottom line: The Seahawks had the league's best secondary during the 2013 season, but the Patriots weren't all that far behind.
Impact of personnel changes
The retooling of the Patriots' secondary looks like it will shore up this group's major weaknesses.
A detailed analysis of their relative metrics indicates that replacing Aqib Talib (who signed with the Denver Broncos) with Revis will save the Patriots somewhere in the range of 200 yards this season. Revis is not known as being quite as accomplished a ball hawk as Talib, but that study illustrated how Revis is likely to generate just as many pick chances, and possibly more interceptions, than Talib posted last season.
As significant as that upgrade would be, it likely pales in comparison to the impact Browner will have. Browner had a lower YPA than Sherman in 2012 (6.2 for Browner, 7.4 for Sherman) and should provide a huge coverage improvement over Alfonzo Dennard (9.3 YPA) and Kyle Arrington (9.2 YPA). Browner has nearly as many career interceptions (10) as Dennard and Arrington combined (13) and thus could improve the turnover total as well. Any impact will be delayed until at least Week 5, as Browner will start the season by serving a four-game suspension, but that may not be an issue given that New England begins the season with games against Miami, Minnesota, Oakland and Kansas City -- teams that all have issues in the passing game.
With strong safety Kam Chancellor already signed to a long-term deal, the core of the Seattle secondary will not change, but there are two places where personnel transitions could affect this group.
The first is at right cornerback. Byron Maxwell looks to have the inside track for this role, and his 5.5 YPA last season indicates he should be up to the task. The big issue is Maxwell will be hard pressed to improve on this total. If his production falls back closer to his 2012 coverage level (8.7 YPA), this could be an area that negatively affects Seattle's overall metrics.
The second is at slot cornerback. Jeremy Lane will be a front-runner for this role, but his 131 yards allowed on 15 targets last year netted out to an unacceptable 8.7 YPA. If he doesn't improve on this figure, Tharold Simon could take over. Simon has performed well this offseason, making ESPN Insider Mike Sando's list of 10 players generating buzz at organized team activities, and had a history of quality coverage and ball hawk metrics at LSU, but it is far from a given that a first-year starter will be a lockdown coverage player, no matter how talented he is.
Bottom line
The Seahawks have a collection of secondary stars with a legacy of success, but they also have to battle complacency, the Madden curse and the Plexiglas principle and do so with a number of unproven players.
Those factors are likely to open a door for a competitor to pass them, and New England, with its additions of a likely future Hall of Famer and one of Seattle's best cornerbacks, is the team likeliest to vault its way to the top. Don't be surprised if by season's end we are calling the Patriots' secondary the best in the NFL.
By K.C. Joyner
ESPN Insider: NFL - New England Patriots' secondary will surpass the Seattle Seahawks' in 2014 - ESPN
