Padres ain't fuckin' around

[StanMarsh51]

3?

If healthy, Cashier can be an Ace. But health is a HUGE question with him.

Shields is a lower-end #1, not an Ace.

Who are you calling your 3rd Ace?

Are there really, say 20-30 pitchers better than him to consider him a lower-end #1, particularly given the way he's pitched the past 2-4 seasons?

I would think Shields could potentially be somewhere in the top 10-15 range if we look at the past few years.

 

[Montalban]

Put it this way, cal...

Madison Bumgarner would have a tough time making the Padres rotation.

Maybe he could platoon at first?

Possibly. he was, afterall, the only player in MLB to hit two grand slams last year.

 

[calsnowskier]

Put it this way, cal...

Madison Bumgarner would have a tough time making the Padres rotation.

Maybe he could platoon at first?

Thanks for that, Hammer.

I needed the smile

 

[calsnowskier]

Are there really, say 20-30 pitchers better than him to consider him a lower-end #1, particularly given the way he's pitched the past 2-4 seasons?

I would think Shields could potentially be somewhere in the top 10-15 range if we look at the past few years.

Fun exercise.

Off the top of my head...

Kershaw
Greinke
Hernandez
Scherzer
Bumgarner
Zimmerman
Darvish
Kluber
Hamels
Fernandez
Lester
Sale
Cueto
Price (may be declining, but for '15 and for equal $$, I would take Price)

These are the CLEAR pitchers I would take over Shields in '15. This is not a complete list, just basically off the top of my head.

Others who are closer or more debatable would be guys like Gray, Strasburg, Ryu, Wainright, Samardjia, etc.

In my mind, an Ace is a guy you would have full confidence in if you are going into a must-win game. Not just your #1. But your horse. Your stud. A guy who can own the game. Shields is a good pitcher. He is a #1 quality pitcher. But to me, he is not the guy that scares the other team. He is not the guy you adjust your rotation to assure he gets that important start in late September for.

Cashner MAY be that guy. If he can stay healthy.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Fun exercise.

Off the top of my head...

Kershaw
Greinke
Hernandez
Scherzer
Bumgarner
Zimmerman
Darvish
Kluber
Hamels
Fernandez
Lester
Sale
Cueto
Price (may be declining, but for '15 and for equal $$, I would take Price)

These are the CLEAR pitchers I would take over Shields in '15. This is not a complete list, just basically off the top of my head.

Others who are closer or more debatable would be guys like Gray, Strasburg, Ryu, Wainright, Samardjia, etc.

In my mind, an Ace is a guy you would have full confidence in if you are going into a must-win game. Not just your #1. But your horse. Your stud. A guy who can own the game. Shields is a good pitcher. He is a #1 quality pitcher. But to me, he is not the guy that scares the other team. He is not the guy you adjust your rotation to assure he gets that important start in late September for.

Cashner MAY be that guy. If he can stay healthy.

Shields has been better than Price each of the past 2 seasons, and by a good amount. Maybe age (and Price being in a free agent year) may be a factor in you pick of that, but performance wise Price hasn't been better since his Cy seaosn a couple years ago.

It's hard with guys like Darvish and Greinke for me at least because those two haven't had nearly the durability that Shields has...
-Greinke's got a 132 ERA+ and 1.13 WHIP the past 2 seasons in 380 innings
-Darvish has a 138 ERA+ and 1.15 WHIP the past 2 seasons in 354 innings
-Shields has a 128 ERA+ and 1.21 WHIP the past 2 seasons in 455 innings

That difference in innings is hard to ignore, and I don't think the performances of Greinke/Darvish have been better enough to override them throwing 70-100 less innings the past two years.

Zimmerman's performance the past few seasons has been pretty similar to Shields, so I don't think there's a clear cut better choice based on performance at least.

Kluber's a interesting one, because 2014 was the only non-mediocre season in his career (although it was an amazing one). If he repeats it, he's certainly better for sure, but that's some high expectations.

I don't see Samardzija being better given their past 2-3 seasons, and the same goes for Strasburg, Ryu. They might have potential to be better, but they haven't been so far, so I can't put someone as a better pitcher than Shields when they haven't outperformed him.


So yea, 10-15 I think seems reasonable for Shields.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Just adding onto my prior post after looking more losely....

Lester was worse than Shields in 2011, 2012, 2013, but better in 2014 (his career year). If Lester reverts back to the Lester was saw in those three prior year and can't repeat his contract year performance, I wouldn't say he's better if Shields if Shields puts up his average season from the past 4 years.

Wainwright I would say is better than Shields.

 

[Montalban]

Just adding onto my prior post after looking more losely....

Lester was worse than Shields in 2011, 2012, 2013, but better in 2014 (his career year). If Lester reverts back to the Lester was saw in those three prior year and can't repeat his contract year performance, I wouldn't say he's better if Shields if Shields puts up his average season from the past 4 years.

Wainwright I would say is better than Shields.

And then they both ran into the buzz saw that was the San Francisco Giants in the post season.

 

[StanMarsh51]

And then they both ran into the buzz saw that was the San Francisco Giants in the post season.

Irrelevant to the topic at hand, but ok...

 

[HammerDown]

Wow, hard to second-guess Vegas. That is virtually a perfect over/under IMO.

 

[Loneranger]

Shields has been better than Price each of the past 2 seasons, and by a good amount. Maybe age (and Price being in a free agent year) may be a factor in you pick of that, but performance wise Price hasn't been better since his Cy seaosn a couple years ago.

It's hard with guys like Darvish and Greinke for me at least because those two haven't had nearly the durability that Shields has...
-Greinke's got a 132 ERA+ and 1.13 WHIP the past 2 seasons in 380 innings
-Darvish has a 138 ERA+ and 1.15 WHIP the past 2 seasons in 354 innings
-Shields has a 128 ERA+ and 1.21 WHIP the past 2 seasons in 455 innings

That difference in innings is hard to ignore, and I don't think the performances of Greinke/Darvish have been better enough to override them throwing 70-100 less innings the past two years.

Zimmerman's performance the past few seasons has been pretty similar to Shields, so I don't think there's a clear cut better choice based on performance at least.

Kluber's a interesting one, because 2014 was the only non-mediocre season in his career (although it was an amazing one). If he repeats it, he's certainly better for sure, but that's some high expectations.

I don't see Samardzija being better given their past 2-3 seasons, and the same goes for Strasburg, Ryu. They might have potential to be better, but they haven't been so far, so I can't put someone as a better pitcher than Shields when they haven't outperformed him.


So yea, 10-15 I think seems reasonable for Shields.

you both make a good case but I think you are being reasonable placing Shields in the 10-15.

 

[Liberal Icon]

The Padres are making the Giants look like fools.

Yet in the end, the Giants will find a way to be competitive without superstars. I like our chances regardless of the moves by others.

 

[Montalban]

Yet in the end, the Giants will find a way to be competitive without superstars. I like our chances regardless of the moves by others.

Not me. Not only is it an odd year, but every team in the West has gotten stronger while the Giants have taken a big downgrade.

 

[HammerDown]

LOL @ every team in the league not named Padres for even daring to show up this season. Call it now!

 

[chappee11]

LOL @ every team in the league not named Padres for even daring to show up this season. Call it now!

Winning the offseason isn't always a good thing. The outfield defense looks pretty bad and the infield looks suspect. They don't even have a leadoff hitter. Nice to see the Padres try to be relevant, but they still have too many holes to touch the Dodgers.

 

[HammerDown]

LOL @ the Boys in Blue.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

LOL @ every team in the league not named Padres for even daring to show up this season. Call it now!

Well, they're the undisputed offseason champs.

 

[williewilliejuan]

Well, they're the undisputed offseason champs.

Well, that pretty much guarantees a WS Championship. Just look at the 2012 Marlins...

 

[Liberal Icon]

Not me. Not only is it an odd year, but every team in the West has gotten stronger while the Giants have taken a big downgrade.

How is it different from last year when the Dodgers and Nationals were thought to be the prohibitive favorites while the Giants were supposed to be going nowhere?

 

[broncosmitty]

Shields has been better than Price each of the past 2 seasons, and by a good amount. Maybe age (and Price being in a free agent year) may be a factor in you pick of that, but performance wise Price hasn't been better since his Cy seaosn a couple years ago.

By a good amount?

Maybe in 2013, but how was Shields better by a good amount last year? Or by any amount? .03 better in ERA sure, in Less innings, with a higher WHIP, a lower K/W rate and the same walk rate. Ks don't make any difference, an outs an out, but Im not seeing the Shields over Price in 2014 thing. (Please don't let it be stats with + signs.)

Id say Shields is a Top Twenty pitcher without a doubt. Top 15 maybe. Hes had excellent speed and defense behind him in KC. It'll be interesting to see if he gets a bump in The NL, especially at Petco. Or not.

 

[Montalban]

How is it different from last year when the Dodgers and Nationals were thought to be the prohibitive favorites while the Giants were supposed to be going nowhere?

Don't forget that the Giants last year just barely scraped into the post season as the bottom seed. They got hot and won. But they were very close to not even getting in to the post season.