Over/under projected wins for each team

[navamind]

Yeah, they're a tough bet no matter which side you take. 81 is probably dead on for them.



LOL...here's where the hardcore Jeets fan goes "yeah, see how valuable he was to the team last year in helping them overcome that Patagonia-thingy? Re2pect!



Why is that? Aren't there at least 3 or 4 teams that break 90 every season? There were 6 last year; every division winner hit at least 90. (Clearly I don't pay much attention to these kinds of things.)

Evaluating The 2014 Projection Systems – The Hardball Times

PECOTA projections are always conservative and there's usually only a few teams per year projected to win 90+ games (or lose 95+). You're almost never going to see teams projected to win/lose 100+. Last year's Astros were projected to lose 97 games after going 51-111 in 2013. Astros actually outperformed their PECOTA projection and showed some promise.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Evaluating The 2014 Projection Systems – The Hardball Times

PECOTA projections are always conservative and there's usually only a few teams per year projected to win 90+ games (or lose 95+). You're almost never going to see teams projected to win/lose 100+. Last year's Astros were projected to lose 97 games after going 51-111 in 2013. Astros actually outperformed their PECOTA projection and showed some promise.

Personally, I would criticize Pecota for being TOO conservative- among a series of conservative projection systems.

 

[Clayton]

NL Central looks like a warzone. Most divisions have a team everyone is low on. Lowest team in the central is the Reds? You almost have to pick out a team that you think will go under.

 

[TDs3nOut]

NL Central looks like a warzone. Most divisions have a team everyone is low on. Lowest team in the central is the Reds? You almost have to pick out a team that you think will go under.

At least the third straight year, isn't it, that the NLC has looked like the most competitive division?

 

[bksballer89]

The Yanks will be interesting. I can see them winning 90 if all goes well or winning 70 if it doesn't. Just about everyone on the team is a question mark

Almost everything in the world would have to go wrong including several season ending injuries for the yanks to only win 70 games

 

[Clayton]

At least the third straight year, isn't it, that the NLC has looked like the most competitive division?

You have the Cubs entering the ring, too, though.

Padres and White Sox are also really looking to make noise in crowded divisions. This is the most parity I think Ive seen in the league in a number of years. The only real given is that the Nationals are making the playoffs baring catastrophe.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

Almost everything in the world would have to go wrong including several season ending injuries for the yanks to only win 70 games

From your keyboard to the baseball god's ears

 

[DragonfromTO]

Evaluating The 2014 Projection Systems – The Hardball Times

PECOTA projections are always conservative and there's usually only a few teams per year projected to win 90+ games (or lose 95+). You're almost never going to see teams projected to win/lose 100+. Last year's Astros were projected to lose 97 games after going 51-111 in 2013. Astros actually outperformed their PECOTA projection and showed some promise.

The thing is, I'd say that pretty much every year the teams that win/lose 100+ are teams that overperform, get good "luck" etc. If you're saying a team is a 100-105 win team, aren't you basically saying that if everything goes right for them they could challenge for the all-time wins record (against a Seattle team that, despite being very good, also had everything go right for them)? At the start of an MLB season do you often see a team like that out there?

 

[gowazzu02]

The thing is, I'd say that pretty much every year the teams that win/lose 100+ are teams that overperform, get good "luck" etc. If you're saying a team is a 100-105 win team, aren't you basically saying that if everything goes right for them they could challenge for the all-time wins record (against a Seattle team that, despite being very good, also had everything go right for them)? At the start of an MLB season do you often see a team like that out there?

Except the playoffs............

 

[Loneranger]

Do any of those over/unders look to you like particularly attractive bets?

Also, am I merely a homer to think that the Rangers are likely to finish with well above 76.5 wins?

IDK about your Rangers but if the Yanks win 80 they're doing something.

 

[Wazmankg]

Over for the Tigers (color me a homer)

No Scherzer, JV in decline until he proves otherwise, Sanchez always good for a few weeks on the DL, nothing but question marks in the pen, V-Mart out for awhile and now they're worried Miggy's not right either. Yeah you're a homer, but I hope you're right.