Lack of guts

[JohnU]

Whatever happened to teams saying they would not let another team be the one that clinched a divisional title on their field? Yeah, back when a team had some pride.

Price and his coaching staff take a lack of dignity to a new low.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I'd be surprised if Bryan Price is back next season. When they brought Riggleman up from Louisville to coach 3B, I thought he was the interim manager in waiting for this season.

Price may not be the biggest problem facing this team, but I don't see him as a part of the solution either.

 

[eburg5000]

I'm pretty pissed off at the Reds lack of concern. They couldn't care less about winning a game tight now, but they still want me to drive a hundred miles and buy a ticket and spend money on them. Piss on them

 

[JohnU]

My problem with Riggleman is that he would dredge up another guy whose career batting average was .218, all at AAA, and make him the hitting coach. That is what Price did. Everyone who knew Don Long when he coached the Parrots was that the team couldn't hit.

Whatever Jeff Pico does has nothing inherently to do with managing a bullpen. I have never seen so many mediocre pitchers with the same skill set being trotted out there game after game only to turn what could have been a winnable game into a disaster.

Meanwhile, Chapman, lauded as the best closer in the league, finally gets an inning last night because it's clear he won't save any more games the rest of this season.

Odds on the Reds not winning again this year?

 

[JohnU]

Price didn't even have enough gumption to put a team out there today with enough dignity to beat the Mets' and their September callups.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

It's hard to quantify how much a managerial change influences the future success of a team and the assistant coaches even more so. But this team didn't get better with the changes made after the 2013 restructuring of the dugout staff and it's not a cure-all moving forward.

It's easier for the Front Office to fire the dugout than it is to look internally and find the real problem. They might finally realize they're part of the problem.

A team scouts, drafts or signs, and develops talent in the farm system. Once the players reach the Majors the improvements come in much smaller increments if at all. Calling any Reds' prospect "Major League Ready" has been a misnomer for too long.

 

[JohnU]

I am watching this team today in D.C. about to be no-hit ... and when I look at what they barfed up last weekend in St. Louis and after that against the Mets, they should be truly embarrassed. I blame the dugout staff for this disaster. All of it.
Other problems are more complex that this dugout staff can't fix. But the insult they put out there this year is clearly a manager who is clueless hiring a coaching staff that had no idea on how to teach men how to hit, pitch, run bases or play defense.
And the bullshit about the rookie pitchers.
The Mets had 2 rookies in the rotation, a 2nd year guy and an ace who is just off TJ and they completely owned this piece of shit team.

 

[chico ruiz]

on the bright side for 2016: the reds top 5 pitching prospects haven't thrown a mlb pitch yet. the only legitimate top of the rotation prospect (stephenson) will pitch 150+ innings this year. btw, if 2016 isn't stephenson's breakthrough year, i don't know when it will be. garret pitched 140+ @ daytona. reed was ace-like at pensacola, and pitched 140+ innings this year. mella has pitched 100+. i mention travieso last based solely on innings pitched (under 100), and the reds seeming commitment to him as a starter. i believe they have some of them in arizona for additional work as well. in terms of position player prospects, jesse winker is the only near mlb ready player in the reds system. he looks like a good one. the reds better hope he is, because he's all they have.

keep in mind, this is prospectus type stuff, and you never know when one, or more, of these guys develops a mlb change up. the reds have many second tier, or middle of the rotation, projections in their system that could advance quickly. moscot, lamb, finnegan, lorenzen, and holmberg have already been to gabp. mahle, strahan, stephens, romano, howard, crawford etc. could surprise.

i'm not sure, beyond desclafani, who pitches 200 innings in 2016. desclafani has been pretty good overall. he developed a secondary, or tertiary 'out' pitch. it's not a blyleven-like hook, but it's pretty darn good and, from what i've seen lately, he throws it any count. he's running out of gas in 2015. mella? we'll see. good velocity with a breaking ball that can't be defined as curve or slider. doesn't sound good. as is the case with virtually all reds pitching prospects; no change up to speak of. probably the most devastating pitch in contemporary mlb today - the change up. sets up every other pitch. has to be a good one though. can't just throw it for affect. mlb hitters will pound fastball / slider guys with little exception. cingrani is the poster child for the necessity to have a functional third pitch as a starter in mlb. We've all seen it. He relies too heavily on #1. He can't spot it often enough. It doesn't explode or have any late movement. He walks 4 batters or he gets hammered. bailey made the jump to mlb viability when he developed an effective off-speed splitter type of third pitch. he learned it at the mlb level from another red's pitcher. unfortunately, he won't truly be back until the all-star break 2016. maybe. the reds will take it slow with their 20 million dollar a year arm. assuming the reds don't trade bruce or chapman (which, they probably should), the opening day 2016 rotation is 5 of the following (trades notwithstanding): desclafani, stephenson, iglesias, moscot, lamb, lorenzen, or finnegan. all top 5 pitching prospects, with the exception of stephenson, will be at pensacola or louisville to start 2016. it's possible garret or reed makes the jump to the reds, but not probable. all, with the exception of desclafani, will have innings limits well below 200 innings. look for more louisville / cincinnati shuffling.

many teams -particularly small & mid market- relentlessly focused on prospect pitcher acquisition and, most importantly, their development. alderson and the mets are as good an example as any. jacob degrom - last years roy (btw, he deserved the honor over hamilton. it had nothing to do with him being in ny) drafted in the 9th round. steven matz - drafted 72nd overall. syndergaard - acquired from toronto. harvey - drafted 7th overall. zack wheeler - acquired from the giants. and the mets have more coming. that's a starting rotation with an average age of roughly 24. with the exception of harvey, they didn't acquire them because they had high draft picks. but, here's the most salient point: they all had three above average formidable pitches -developed in the minors- in their quiver when they got to the mets. i can't remember the last red's pitcher prospect who came to GABP with a circle change that was useful.

one cincinnati writer recently wrote: "in baseball, good administrating (scouting, drafting, trading, and development) matters more than in football. the major-league manager and staff are useful, but not essential to success. across the big 162, the manager's biggest job isn't game prep and/or management. It's setting a tone." there is no doubt that, under jocketty, the reds have fallen well short of league average standard rating in the scouting, drafting, trading, and development category. it is the lifeblood of a small / mid - market mlb organization. many gm's recognized this well over a decade ago when salaries (especially starting pitchers salaries) began to sky rocket. even cashman refused to trade any prospects at the deadline this year, with his team in contention. that hasn't happened in decades, and it's a bigger deal than it may seem at first glance. by all accounts, jocketty is running a dysfunctional organization. i'm not sure the lefthand knows what the righthand is doing. i look at the reds organization, the mechanics they employ, and i sometimes wonder if they realize it's mlb in the 21st century. i wish it were as simple as 1507's and john's posts read. a black & white mlb world with little or no gray area. get better players, and field a better team. wishing a natural like votto comes around every four years is implausible. wally is, and has been, seemingly crossing bridges when he comes to them. prospect acquisition was non-existent until recently. as 1507 has written; no ostensible 'reds way' or developmental system in place. i can't think of one thing the reds developmental staff does functionally or efficiently well. you know, something the organization can hang it's hat on that is a reds staple. no analytics to augment, or bolster, projected strengths of prospects, and aid in scouting. if you just consider the 'innings limits' mentioned above, the lack of foresight, anticipation, and organizational preparedness, is jaw dropping when compared to virtually every other mlb club.


i've read a lot about the cyclical nature of winning, on this board, with concessions that there will be x number of down, or losing, years (rebuilds, etc). i don't buy it. it's a losing attitude that -like the quack in 'the natural' said, "is contagious." in the reds case, it looks like it has been accepted. bruce's lazy discombobulated swing at familia's k pitch that clinched for the mets, looked sad and pathetic. he gave up and gave in. i can look past the losing, if a team is giving good effort. i think we all love the 'game.' hit-n-run renewed his season tix subscription for 2016. h-n-r loves the 'game.' btw, i agree with all your recent posts h-n-r. very accurate and well articulated. the reds don't want to lose fans like us. do they?

 

[JohnU]

It's somewhat interesting to dissect strategy in the scouting, drafting and signing of developmental players. Still another to have 4 or 5 less-than-replacement value players on the field at any given time, and I include Suarez and Barnhart in that group, though both are curiously among the best the Reds can put out there now.

And yes ... it IS as simple as black and white ... get better players and play better. I don't need to detail what went wrong with this abomination of a team. The manager has a coaching staff that is clueless. Hell, Lamb didn't even know on Saturday why the Mets were all excited in the dugout. The guy doesn't even know what's going on in his own league.

The bullpen was working with zero strategy, the batting order changed every 3 hours and the starting pitchers had thrown 39 pitches before they got the side out. Nothing like letting a guy hit 6 foul balls in the first inning.

If all this about what makes pitchers effective is so easy to interpret, Chico ... please advise me on why the manager, a former pitching coach, a pitching coach, and an assistant pitching coach, and a AAA pitching coach and a AA pitching coach and various and assorted scouts can't impart that information.

All I saw last weekend was an insult. Why that happens is beyond me but the blame lies at the manager's feet. If he's replaced at season's end, that will be a grave injustice. Price took a team that had won 90 games and has reduced it to a series of 9-game losing streaks, with more than 180 losses in 2 seasons.

We can spend an eternity reading the metrics about how to draft, how to evaluate players and how to find and nurture prospects. It's amusing.

Desclafani and Iglesias will be in the rotation to start the year. Lorenzen may end up being the closer after Chapman is traded. Lamb might be a starter. After that, until Bailey can pitch, there's not much reason for optimism, not with this dugout staff. Cingrani should be released.

As for Jess Winker, who was ballyhoo'ed as the next Reds LF, of the 219 guys who keep getting PT out there, he's the only one who hasn't.

And we have a system full of great arms? Yeah, Jason Marquis is still looking for work. Price apparently likes that sort of pitcher. Maybe we can turn Parra into a starter again.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Jason Marquis and Kevin Gregg signings were out of the ordinary from what we've seen in recent years. The Reds have over paid at times for pitching, especially bullpen types, but those two fall under the "what were you thinking" category. The Reds hired former GM Kevin Towers around Thanksgiving 2014, finding value in pitching where others see none is supposedly his forte. Whether Price, Towers, or whomever it was saw value in those two...WOW!!


The 2016 Reds' starting rotation will be faced with the same innings limit problem as this season. As Chico mentions only Desclafani barring injury would be projected to pitch near 200 innings. That makes me think the Reds will bring a veteran or two into camp and possibly to Opening Day to try and eat up some early season rotation innings. Hopefully there's actually some value in the scrap heap choices they make for 2016.

I like what I've seen from Desclafani, especially his slider. He's a mid to back of the rotation pitcher, but it's a start. John Lamb probably has the best change up of the group, but the rest of his offerings are fairly average. I see Lorenzen and Finnegan as back end bullpen guys. Iglesias can be the most dominant of the group, but his durability may be in question.

John almost nailed the no-hit prediction. The Reds were no-hit until one out in the 8th today.

 

[JohnU]

Manny Parra could be stretched out to be a starter if they want to avoid making a deal. He's also a lefty which does matter. Parra was also on the DL three times this year. Honestly, I'd buy back Leake's contract on the FA market if I am the Reds. He's not going to be that expensive.
Still, let's look at some obvious problems -- the LF arrangement after Byrd left is a complete joke. Byrd was not quite a joke. We have an outfield that has a combined OBP of about .280 and except for a home run once a week from Bruce, it's inert.
There is NO excuse to spend 8 years looking for a LEFT FUCKING FIELDER.
If Cincy has anything to trade, it's one of these prospectus pitchers -- and really, most teams need hitting more than they need pitching. Unless you are Toronto.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Parra has been a disappointment every since the Brewers drafted him and over slotted to sign him. He got something like $1.5M to sign as a late 30+ draft pick. Always thought to have talent, but has never been able to stay healthy or put it all together.

I don't see the Reds re-signing FA's Parra or Marshall unless it's to a minor league deal. Badenhop has a option or buyout and the Reds will probably choose the cheaper one....see ya "Hopper". Sam Lecure and Ryan Mattheus are arbitration eligible and I'd non-tender both. Hoover and Chapman are the only two pitchers I see being offered arbitration. Pre-arbitration and waiver wire types will most likely round out next year's bullpen. As for a veteran SP I'd expect someone they can sign to a minor league deal.

On the position player side of this mess Schumaker has a option/ buyout. Cozart, Boesch, and Bourgeois are arbitration eligible. If Suarez was a better defensive option they might have non-tendered Cozart, but he's not and Cozart had a nice rebound year at the plate buying himself at least one more year. Schumaker should be released to free agency and the other two non-tendered. But, with the lack of depth at the outfielder position, the Reds might keep one or more which is really a sad state of affairs. Who plays left field next year? The options are bountiful, the production.....not so much.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The catching position for the Reds is interesting. The Reds will have four on their 40 man roster when Mesoraco is added back at seasons end. I don't think they'll re-sign Pena. I believe Ramon Cabrera is out of assignment options for next season. They DFA'd Kyle Skipwortth opting for Cabrera instead. They had to add Cabrera to the 40 man to call him up, so it makes him look like someone they want to keep in the organization. Tucker Barnhart has earned the backup catcher job, but he has options. With Mesoraco coming off injury, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Has anyone noticed the Reds currently have three active switch hitting catchers? Hard to imagine that's not a record.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Correction.....I thought they DFA'd Skipworth, but he's still listed on the 40 man. But, nonetheless it doesn't bode well for him that Cabrera got the nod in the September call up. Neither of them have minor league options moving forward as far as I know.

 

[eburg5000]

I think this is going to be an interesting off season. A lot of changes "should" be coming.

 

[JohnU]

Skipworth may end up being a pinch of salt in a bigger trade, kind of like when he came to the Reds. Odd, they didn't give him a showcase, but then again ... the Reds seem to row with one oar in the water. I think they will hang onto either Boesch or Bourgeous ... depending on the need for a lefty or righty bench bat. I'd release both of them yesterday.
Mesoraco is probably headed to left field. So is Suarez, as well as the Mormon Tabernacle Choir, the Freetown Boys Club and almost anybody else we can sign ... except for the kids we actually signed to play outfield who will spend another year rotting in the minors learning to hit 85 mph fastballs from guys like KEvius Sampson, who are good enough to actually make the Reds rotation.
Cabrera as a backup catcher is ... meh, is the guy any good? You learn pretty fast in MLB when your top catcher hits the shelf how bad things can get. Welcome to reality, St. Louis.
Barnhart is a top flight catcher and is a decent hitter if he only hits lefty.

 

[JohnU]

Reds bullpen based on what they have, for next year:

Keeping Hoover and the Missile, they put Lorenzen in the 'pen and might actually keep Jimbo Jumbo, since he's cheap and reasonably dependable. I can see them keeping Mattheus but he's a disappointment. After that, Cingrani can make this team but he won't. Sampson or Contreras might make the roster. They need to pitch a lot better.
This bullpen was mangled by Price's ineptitude. All in all, he would know how to manage a bullpen if he hadn't lost control of the overall picture. A bad dugout staff relates to many problems.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I could see the Reds going with three catchers if Mesoraco was going to split time in LF/C. If not for the hip injury, I don't think Cabrera would be a part of the equation.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

It's hard to realistically pick the bullpen. They have a lot of guys under team control that are cheap. Even guys like Mattheus wouldn't cost much if granted arbitration.

I like Lorenzen for the bullpen, but I don't think he'll be there unless they unload Chapman or Hoover. They seem committed to him being a SP......of course we use to say that about Chapman also.