Kiper and McShay's podcast

[Darrell Green Fan]

yeeeah we have a winner of the misquote of the sportshoopla skins board debate of the month award

we have said the talent at 5 and 9 are about the same . hence the "reach argument " isnt all that good

But it is NOT always about the same. There is the value chart, there is history to show the cost to move up from 9 to 5 and there was the example I pulled from the very draft that you personally selected to try to prove a point, all clearly showing that there is a difference between 5 and 9. Yet you want to stubbornly throw all this out the window to make a claim that frankly you, me or anyone else here is not qualified to make.

To braodly claim that there in little to no difference between the 5th best player and the 9th best player on a draft board is just flat wrong.

 

[Sharkinva]

But it is NOT always about the same. There is the value chart, there is history to show the cost to move up from 9 to 5 and there was the example I pulled from the very draft that you personally selected to try to prove a point, all clearly showing that there is a difference between 5 and 9. Yet you want to stubbornly throw all this out the window to make a claim that frankly you, me or anyone else here is not qualified to make.

To braodly claim that there in little to no difference between the 5th best player and the 9th best player on a draft board is just flat wrong.

STILL trying to intermingle that draft trade value chart to some how prove that the talent level difference is that great between 5-9 huh?? Sure the talent level CAN be different, but there is no way to link what it would cost to trade up as a hard value difference between the talent level of the players. We traded half a draft and the coaches soul to move up from 6 to 2, and the guy taken at 8 is developing into a better QB thus far.


Bottom line, trade value just shows how desperate a team is to get the player they want. It has NOTHING to do with actual measurable talent level between players picked within 5 slots of each other.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

STILL trying to intermingle that draft trade value chart to some how prove that the talent level difference is that great between 5-9 huh?? Sure the talent level CAN be different, but there is no way to link what it would cost to trade up as a hard value difference between the talent level of the players. We traded half a draft and the coaches soul to move up from 6 to 2, and the guy taken at 8 is developing into a better QB thus far.


Bottom line, trade value just shows how desperate a team is to get the player they want. It has NOTHING to do with actual measurable talent level between players picked within 5 slots of each other.

The declarative statement was there is no difference in talent between the 5th rated player and the 9th. That was the claim and it's total bullshit. To be honest I'm tired of arguing something as obvious as the sky is blue.

 

[Sharkinva]

The declarative statement was there is no difference in talent between the 5th rated player and the 9th. That was the claim and it's total bullshit. To be honest I'm tired of arguing something as obvious as the sky is blue.

The reality is, 1st pick to last pick and UDFA's at best each team is making an educated guess as to how well a guy will do. Or basically his TALENT LEVEL. IF it were an exact science, we wouldnt still be looking for a QB, our O-line questions would be answered considering how many 3-7th round picks we have invested and the kicker is Ryan Leaf would be in the hall of fame instead of the hall of shame. The comparative guesstimated TALENT LEVEL between the 5th and the 9th pick in most cases is negligible since in most cases believe it or not teams DO factor in need when making these top ten picks. And even if you are trying to say the ratings of 1-10 are based on how good a football player a particular player is, there is no realistic way to rate players of DIFFERENT positions. You cant compare how good a WR will be against a D-lineman because they are different skill sets used in completely different ways.

So at BEST its a rating of how well we think this guy will do as compared to the next guy. And at worst, its a list of guys that some one thinks will have roughly the same career success that is also skewed by where they think team needs will factor into when a guy is likely to be drafted.

So yes the concept that the guy drafted at #5 is vastly more talented than a guy picked at #9 is suspect at best. There will always be exceptions, such as Bortles being drafted 3rd over all, when I think quite a few more talented players were on the board. But by and large, a guy considered the 9th or 10th best player in a particular draft class is NOT this huge drop from the #5 guy you want it to be.

 

[skinsdad62]

ok tell me what has more value an RT/OG who is a solid ten year starter or a litewieght 3rd down pass rush specialist who plays for 10 years . what does your little chart say about that ?

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

ok tell me what has more value an RT/OG who is a solid ten year starter or a litewieght 3rd down pass rush specialist who plays for 10 years . what does your little chart say about that ?

Well obviously my "little chart" says nothing about that. And I'm pretty sure I never took the position that I won't take a 3rd down specialist over a 10 year starting guard. We have been talking about value and all your spin and condescending posts won't change the fact that the player rated 5th is more valuable than the player rated 9th.

As far as players go who would you prefer, Tre Johnson or Art Monk? Releigh McKenzie or DeMarcus Ware?

 

[skinsdad62]

Well obviously my "little chart" says nothing about that. And I'm pretty sure I never took the position that I won't take a 3rd down specialist over a 10 year starting guard. We have been talking about value and all your spin and condescending posts won't change the fact that the player rated 5th is more valuable than the player rated 9th.

As far as players go who would you prefer, Tre Johnson or Art Monk? Releigh McKenzie or DeMarcus Ware?

except i didnt say that what i said was there is little difference in talent between the 5th and 9th spot if the teams make the right pick

 

[skinsdad62]

Well obviously my "little chart" says nothing about that. And I'm pretty sure I never took the position that I won't take a 3rd down specialist over a 10 year starting guard. We have been talking about value and all your spin and condescending posts won't change the fact that the player rated 5th is more valuable than the player rated 9th.

As far as players go who would you prefer, Tre Johnson or Art Monk? Releigh McKenzie or DeMarcus Ware?

as i have said over and over that there is little difference between the TALENT in the 5th pick and the 9TH pick . you cant seriously believe that sammie smith , despite being drafted at 9 was the 9th best player in that draft anymore then jamarcus russell was the best player in his draft despite being picked number one overall

But it is NOT always about the same. There is the value chart, there is history to show the cost to move up from 9 to 5 and there was the example I pulled from the very draft that you personally selected to try to prove a point, all clearly showing that there is a difference between 5 and 9. Yet you want to stubbornly throw all this out the window to make a claim that frankly you, me or anyone else here is not qualified to make.

To braodly claim that there in little to no difference between the 5th best player and the 9th best player on a draft board is just flat wrong.

the value chart is rarely if ever right . most likely it is either overpaid or underpaid when actual trades so is a 10 year starter at OG/RT have more value then the 4th wr on the depth chart ? i cant believe that any real football fan with any real knowledge believes that the chart a "bible " that must be adhered to and couldnt possibly be simply a guideline

and i will broadly proclaim what i proclaimed because it is generally true the value chart and the DEMONSTRATED talent on the football field are 2 different animals altogether and it wasnt a debating point i was making

value in the terms redskinsfan was talking about cant be determined until a trade is made . figuring out what draft picks you could get is an exercise in futility if you dont have an offer or the offer is greater or less then then the subjective value chart is

now some of you are telling me OLB is of more value but the ones discussed appear to be 3rd down pass rush specialists or one trick ponies and i want to know what the value is in that or the wr who ends up 4th on our depth chart

i wonder if that is worth a 5th overall and if that chart says that is good value

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

as i have said over and over that there is little difference between the TALENT in the 5th pick and the 9TH pick . you cant seriously believe that sammie smith , despite being drafted at 9 was the 9th best player in that draft anymore then jamarcus russell was the best player in his draft despite being picked number one overall




the value chart is rarely if ever right . most likely it is either overpaid or underpaid when actual trades so is a 10 year starter at OG/RT have more value then the 4th wr on the depth chart ? i cant believe that any real football fan with any real knowledge believes that the chart a "bible " that must be adhered to and couldnt possibly be simply a guideline

and i will broadly proclaim what i proclaimed because it is generally true the value chart and the DEMONSTRATED talent on the football field are 2 different animals altogether and it wasnt a debating point i was making

value in the terms redskinsfan was talking about cant be determined until a trade is made . figuring out what draft picks you could get is an exercise in futility if you dont have an offer or the offer is greater or less then then the subjective value chart is

now some of you are telling me OLB is of more value but the ones discussed appear to be 3rd down pass rush specialists or one trick ponies and i want to know what the value is in that or the wr who ends up 4th on our depth chart

i wonder if that is worth a 5th overall and if that chart says that is good value

Yeah calling the value chart the bible was a bit over the top, I tried to go back and change it but had run out of time. None the less it exists and it exists for a reason. Again you continue to reword the same point over and over again, that there is very little difference between the player picked 5th in the draft vs. 9th. And I continue to say that's complete bullshit. So Jamarcus Russell and Sammy Smith did not work out. It happens every year. That does not change the fact that at some point the team that selected them did in fact consider them the 1st and 9th best players in the draft.

Or maybe they reached to fill a spot and failed?

 

[skinsdad62]

Yeah calling the value chart the bible was a bit over the top, I tried to go back and change it but had run out of time. None the less it exists and it exists for a reason. Again you continue to reword the same point over and over again, that there is very little difference between the player picked 5th in the draft vs. 9th. And I continue to say that's complete bullshit. So Jamarcus Russell and Sammy Smith did not work out. It happens every year. That does not change the fact that at some point the team that selected them did in fact consider them the 1st and 9th best players in the draft.

Or maybe they reached to fill a spot and failed?

i have no idea if they reached or not but again i doubt they were rated the best players .

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

So how'd that work out for them? Taking a player of need that is.

 

[Sharkinva]

So how'd that work out for them? Taking a player of need that is.

How has taking the best player available constantly worked out for the Lions?? Sure they got Megatron... and they HAD Suh... but by and large they have been right around the same level as the Redskins.


And IM still waiting for an answer... if the BPA for us in Round one is White, and in round two its another WR, and in round 3 yet ANOTHER WR... and we for what ever reason cant trade the pick... do we draft thee WRs because they were the BPA when we were on the clock??

 

[skinsdad62]

So how'd that work out for them? Taking a player of need that is.

again you want to make the argument that scherf is solely a "need " pick . he isnt in my opinion he would be the best player on the board

i believe he is a 10 year starter and that is better then a 3rd down rush specialist or a guy who knocks grant back to # 5 wr

 

[Sharkinva]

again you want to make the argument that scherf is solely a "need " pick . he isnt in my opinion he would be the best player on the board

i believe he is a 10 year starter and that is better then a 3rd down rush specialist or a guy who knocks grant back to # 5 wr

BUt he just isnt Sexy enough to be picked at five Dad..

Pass Rusher... Sexy
Wide Receiver.. Uber Sexy

OT who isnt even going to be a Left Tackle... Not sexy.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

Posters on team message boards understand football. We understand the value of a great offensive line and none of us are looking for "sexy", we want the best player. This isn't about position, it's about value. If the player they take rated higher than the OL you are pimping I don't care what position he plays, he represents the best investment because he can be the better player. We're just talking edge rusher and WR because those seem to be the players considered. But if he's an ILB or a tight end if he's potentially great I want him.

Of course all of this is projection and I totally agree with you that Scherff, like most OL, has a lower bust rate. And again I'm OK with the pick if it is made because I know SM will take him because he is the best player, not because he will be the immediate fix you are looking for going into next season.

As for Dad's comment, like you he is saying he considers Scherff the best player on the board at 5. Yet his arguments have led me to believe he considers him the best player because he fills an immediate need. That's not the same thing as saying he is the 5th best player in the draft.

Sorry, missed the part about the receivers. To answer as I said as you get later in the draft you can deviate. The difference between player 32 abd 36 is lower than the difference between 5 and 9 IMO. So yeah it would be crazy to go WR/WR, and the odds are stacked against it. So you drop one spot, not 4-5, and take another player if that rare but possible situation occurs.

Again the Bulls didn't need a shooting guard when they drafted Michael Jordan. They had Quinton Dailey who was the best player on their team. If they were looking to improve their front court weakness immediately going into the next year, as you appear to be doing with Scherff, they would have drafted a lower rated player. They could have argued, as you have, that their glaring need to improve their rebounding and front court scoring could justify elevating Perkins' ranking over Jordan because he fills a desperate need immediately. But they weren't thinking only about the next season, they were thinking long term.

 

[Sharkinva]

SO I will simply ask again... .how is fixing the O-line NOT thinking long term?? Scherff projects to be a great O-lineman. Is the hangup that he would actually address a current and future need?? Or rather that by addressing the need now, we should be getting RID of that particular need in the future.

 

[skinsdad62]

"As for Dad's comment, like you he is saying he considers Scherff the best player on the board at 5. Yet his arguments have led me to believe he considers him the best player because he fills an immediate need. That's not the same thing as saying he is the 5th best player in the draft."

i have consistently said at 5 he is the BPA period . the argument is that some people believe that its a grand canyon moon sized reach to take him at 5 when he was projected at 9 or its "history making"

i have said he is a RT dont lose focus

 

[redskinsfan]

I can't believe we're still on the issue between the difference between player value vs. pick value. Yes, the difference between player talent between five and nine may be small. But the difference in pick value is not unless you consider a current year second rounder or a next year first and fourth rounder "small." On most reputable big boards, Scherff is around 10 to 15. But let's say he's ninth on a big board. Taking him at fifth overall, especially because he's a guard, is way too much of reach in terms of pick value.

The only way this makes sense if someone like McCloughan says "screw it, despite the reach in terms of pick value, Scherff is still worth it." There could be various reasons for that not the least of which is desperation for Scherff. But that makes little sense when you can still get a good guard like La'El Collins further down the draft board. While Scherff is (much) better than Collins, we don't need an OG like Scherff. We can do fine with someone like Collins. If you don't think so, that's called making the "sexy" pick where you select the top of the line model where an economy version will do just fine and where you can other selections by "downgrading."

 

[countryroads316]

I can't believe we're still on the issue between the difference between player value vs. pick value. Yes, the difference between player talent between five and nine may be small. But the difference in pick value is not unless you consider a current year second rounder or a next year first and fourth rounder "small." On most reputable big boards, Scherff is around 10 to 15. But let's say his ninth on a big board. Taking him at fifth overall, especially because he's a guard, is way too much of reach in terms of pick value.

The only way this makes sense if someone like McCloughan says "screw it, despite the reach in terms of pick value, Scherff is still worth it." There could be various reasons for that not the least of which is desperation for Scherff. But that makes little sense when you can still get a good guard like La'El Collins further down the draft board. While Scherff is (much) better than Collins, we don't need an OG like Scherff. We can do fine with someone like Collins. If you don't think so, that's called making the "sexy" pick where you select the top of the line model where an economy version will do just fine and where you can other selections by "downgrading."

Then we can select Kikaha in the 3rd who is just as good as Fowler

 

[redskinsfan]

"As for Dad's comment, like you he is saying he considers Scherff the best player on the board at 5. Yet his arguments have led me to believe he considers him the best player because he fills an immediate need. That's not the same thing as saying he is the 5th best player in the draft."

i have consistently said at 5 he is the BPA period . the argument is that some people believe that its a grand canyon moon sized reach to take him at 5 when he was projected at 9 or its "history making"

i have said he is a RT dont lose focus

No, selecting a guard at five would be setting a historical precedent -- not selecting a guard at five instead of nine. And don't point out instances where teams selected guards that high at or prior to the merger between the leagues. During some of those years, white and "colored" folks drank out of separate water fountains, which ought to give you an idea of how far back that was and how much the league (and society) has changed.

And most reputable big boards have Scherff around 10 or so. This isn't to say I wouldn't love to have Scherff. But it has to be at the right price and under the right circumstances.