Justin Smoak

[Podunkparte]

Through 52 games:

.230 7 HR 29 RBI While playing Gold Glove defense

Is anyone here disappointed in his play this season? Try to keep bias from his suckitude in previous years out of it, but do you think he's meeting expectations so far this year?

I actually do. If he can hit between .230 and .250 this year and hit 25+ HR and drive in 90+ I will be very happy with that production. He's on pace for 21 HR and 90 RBI. Basically if he can avoid a few major slumps the guy will be productive in my eyes.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on Smoak this year?

 

[dude82]

I'd be okay with 25 homers and 90+ RBI from Smoak if we can get it. Smoak's biggest problem is that his production is a crap-shoot from year-to-year from either side of the plate. He's like a juggler who throws two balls up at the same time and is so focused on trying to catch one ball that he completely forgets about the other ball until he gets so fed up with dropping that ball all the time that he concentrates too hard on catching it, allowing the first ball to hit the ground all the time.

I think at this point, unless he becomes one of those late bloomers who doesn't start playing like he was expected to until he enters his prime (or he picks a side of the plate from which to hit and totally abandons the switch-hitting thing [and considering he sees far more action from the left side, that should be the side he decides to stick with if he chooses to do that]), .240, 25 and 90 might be the best case scenario that we can hope for from him and even that might be pushing it.

The closest he's come to putting up 25 homers was last year when he hit 20 and the closest he's come to 90 RBI was when he had 55 in 2011. Now, unless he has a complete meltdown with runners in scoring position from now until the end of the season, I think that that high water mark is going to be passed rather easily this year. He's already 53% of the way to that total with four months to go, so at the very least, he should knock in more than 55 runs, especially with Cano hitting in front of him. The batting average and homeruns will be the harder marks to hit I think.

 

[SeattleCoug]

The smoak issue needs to be addressed in the next year for sure. Problem is there are so many bigger issues/problems in this lineup right now I'm willing to overlook him a bit. I think he is on a slow incline and is hitting much better from the right side this year. His question is always consistency. Right now I'll take what I am getting but wish it was a little better or more consistent.

 

[Banned 10x]

Through 52 games:

.230 7 HR 29 RBI While playing Gold Glove defense

Is anyone here disappointed in his play this season? Try to keep bias from his suckitude in previous years out of it, but do you think he's meeting expectations so far this year?

I actually do. If he can hit between .230 and .250 this year and hit 25+ HR and drive in 90+ I will be very happy with that production. He's on pace for 21 HR and 90 RBI. Basically if he can avoid a few major slumps the guy will be productive in my eyes.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on Smoak this year?

I've been pleasantly surprised in him and do think he is finally turning the corner into being a productive 1st baseman. I'll take the .250 with 25 HRs with his defense.

I don't have that 'damn, Smoak is coming up and he'll probably strike out' feeling every at bat.

 

[mcnabb7542]

He's got a whole different approach at the plate this season, I think he continues to get better, his defense is good, so why mess with that position when you have other glaring needs, plus I think Cano around him is helping his approach at the plate, it helps having a good veteran around to talk with, and Smoak is always jawing with Cano...

 

[PolarVortex]

Through 52 games:

.230 7 HR 29 RBI While playing Gold Glove defense

Is anyone here disappointed in his play this season? Try to keep bias from his suckitude in previous years out of it, but do you think he's meeting expectations so far this year?

I actually do. If he can hit between .230 and .250 this year and hit 25+ HR and drive in 90+ I will be very happy with that production. He's on pace for 21 HR and 90 RBI. Basically if he can avoid a few major slumps the guy will be productive in my eyes.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on Smoak this year?

I don't want to be the guy whho rains on the parade here but I want point out two things:

1. His batting average is lower this year than last. His OBP is also. His slugging percentage is also. So, obviously, his OPS is too. And his homerun-to-plate appearance ratio is lower than each of the previous two seasons. You can check this out for yourself on his Baseball Reference page: Justin Smoak Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

2. As someone pointed out on another thread, RBI and runs scored are based on opportunity and each are more of a team statistic even though they are awarded to individuals.

The two areas where I've noticed improvement from Smoak are defense and clutch hitting. The clutch hitting could be a fluke that returns to career norms as the season progresses. I hope not. His defense is spectacular. I didn't think it could improve much from last year, but it has.

 

[cezero]

He is what he is. No surprise.

 

[blstoker]

I've been pleasantly surprised in him and do think he is finally turning the corner into being a productive 1st baseman. I'll take the .250 with 25 HRs with his defense.

I don't have that 'damn, Smoak is coming up and he'll probably strike out' feeling every at bat.

If he could only hit at Safeco, he'd be a solid producer.

 

[NWinAZ]

He is no Morales, but he is the best we have. He is ranked 21st in slugging % for 1B at .408 with the A.L. average for 1B at .431.

So if having a below average 1B is ideal, then he is ideal. Now playing devils advocate, if we had better hitters in the lineup we could live with his offense because he is a very good defensive 1B and I believe he saves a lot of runs with his D. The thing about baseball is that it is hard to really rate each player on the team as far as their individual importance to the team because of the other players around him. For example: Brendan Ryan on a Mariners no offensive team made him a 'c' type SS, but if you put him on say a high offensive Toronto team and he is now an 'a' type SS even if he has the same stats for both teams. Just my thoughts.

 

[johnfree63]

He is no Morales, but he is the best we have. He is ranked 21st in slugging % for 1B at .408 with the A.L. average for 1B at .431.

So if having a below average 1B is ideal, then he is ideal. Now playing devils advocate, if we had better hitters in the lineup we could live with his offense because he is a very good defensive 1B and I believe he saves a lot of runs with his D. The thing about baseball is that it is hard to really rate each player on the team as far as their individual importance to the team because of the other players around him. For example: Brendan Ryan on a Mariners no offensive team made him a 'c' type SS, but if you put him on say a high offensive Toronto team and he is now an 'a' type SS even if he has the same stats for both teams. Just my thoughts.

That's not really the case with 1B. They need to be hitters. If you look at the 1B leader board you'll see that the few teams with a 1B hitting worse then Smoak are also teams with a worse record then the M's. It's been time to move on from Smoak for a while now.

 

[cezero]

Yeah, 1B is easily the least important defensive position when it comes to calculating saved runs and overall defensive value. I believe it's a -10 runs factor position for most sabr calculations, whereas SS is +5 and 2B is +2...those might be off a little.

 

[NWinAZ]

That's not really the case with 1B. They need to be hitters. If you look at the 1B leader board you'll see that the few teams with a 1B hitting worse then Smoak are also teams with a worse record then the M's. It's been time to move on from Smoak for a while now.

Not disagreeing with that at all and didn't mean it that way entirely. Just meant it would be less of a story if say he was on the Jays and playing his defense.

I do disagree with defense at 1B being less important than other infield positions. More putouts are made at 1B and if you had a butcher over there who could only catch balls directly thrown into the glove you would have a major problem. There is no formula around that will convince me that having an Olerud or Segui at 1B didn't save a lot of errant throws from being errors versus say having a guy like Montero at 1B. Watch Montero type player play the position for a week and you will throw out all those formulas.

 

[cezero]

I do disagree with defense at 1B being less important than other infield positions.

It's much less important.

SS is the most, followed by 2B, followed by 3B. Most put outs at 1B come from catching balls thrown by a fellow player at one of the bags or SS.

The only position with a lower overall sabr calculation factor (as a component of about a dozen meaningful stats) is DH.

 

[cezero]

any team with a 1B who can't do .400 slg / .750 ops consistently should always be looking for an upgrade, IMO, regardless of their defensive amazingness

 

[NWinAZ]

It's much less important.

SS is the most, followed by 2B, followed by 3B. Most put outs at 1B come from catching balls thrown by a fellow player at one of the bags or SS.

The only position with a lower overall sabr calculation factor (as a component of about a dozen meaningful stats) is DH.

Point being that not all throws are to the glove at 1B and if you have a butcher there your other 3 infield positions worsen. We are not talking range which is probably what most formulas are based on.

 

[wazzu31]

Point being that not all throws are to the glove at 1B and if you have a butcher there your other 3 infield positions worsen. We are not talking range which is probably what most formulas are based on.

Would it be better if Smoak was an all star offensive player, yes but facts are the M's have 3 2B playing right now on the infield and you need a great glove at first.

 

[NWinAZ]

Agreed and agreed. That was kind of my original comment that being right now Smoak isn't our biggest issue. Infielders in the outfielders and none of which can hit far out weighs Smoak at 1B....and I am not a big Smoak fan so I am not defending him.

 

[wazzu31]

Agreed and agreed. That was kind of my original comment that being right now Smoak isn't our biggest issue. Infielders in the outfielders and none of which can hit far out weighs Smoak at 1B....and I am not a big Smoak fan so I am not defending him.

We've agree upon Smoak since the good ole cbs days. For a team that has sacrificed so much defense so Jack's version of offense, they need a gold glover like Smoak until they can find about 4 more bats.

 

[NWinAZ]

Ain't that the truth. I miss the old CBS site and some of the members. Good times, but this has been the next best thing if not maybe a little better.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Justin Smoak's dWAR since coming to Seattle:
2010: -0.4
2011: -0.9
2012: -0.8
2013: -1.5
2014: -0.5

He is hitting .225 with a .299 OBP. Smoak is in the bottom 5 of starting 1Bs in MLB. The saddest part is that the Mariners OF, SS and DH positions have arguably been worse and deserve priority over replacing Smoak.