it is TIME to RELAX

[Redsfan1507]

Small park managers wait on homers more...You know what is the same size in all parks ? The distance between the bases. You know what HR hitters in all parks want ? Fastballs. You know what gets more fastballs ? Runners on base that are steal threats get hitters more fastballs. There's a clue there that the wait on the 3 run HR type managers are missing. You want more fastballs, run more.... It helps if you don't do it in pitch out counts though. Just saying.

 

[Beggs]

How many games would the Reds win if they scored 5 runs every game ? Quite a few with good pitching... But 5 runs X 162 games is 810 runs ( not very many) but 30% of those runs via the HR is over 260 runs...if they were ALL 2 run homers, that's still more HR than most teams expect to hit. I don't have the stats, but I remember last years team being among the most HR dependent teams in MLB...and were LAST in the NL in steals...and the blunt truth is, unless a lot more guys hit .300 and/ or show signs of advancing and scoring more runs with other than homers and 2 out hits ( the MLB average with 2 outs is .200) it's not going to change over a larger sample size.

Most runs scored last year was 808

260/2 = 130 home runs. only 3 teams hit less.

Reds were 11th in total homers last year with 172

 

[JohnU]

I think the steal threat with the Reds is probably pretty incidental. Aside from Heisey and maybe Cozart, there isn't much foot speed. I suppose BP and Choo could steal a little bit but I don't know if the stats would bear it out as successful.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I used to make jokes about the Reds not being able to score more than 2 runs without a homer. That is my normal over/ under bet for the Reds. It doesnt mean that the 3rd run has to be a homer, but very frequently in a 5 run game, the Reds hit 2... And lots of 3 run games they hit 1...may be true for every team, but hasnt been true much this year... But maybe Choo being on base half the time is looming larger than normal. The Reds hit a lot of solo homers... Teasingly called Dusty small ball...the solo homer. On the flip side, it may take 6 hits in an inning to score 3 runs without a homer...and on a team hitting .250, ypu might be better off trying for half those 6 hits being homers, instead if all in one inning.


The important thing is making the runs you score hold up for a win at least more than 50% of the season, I suppose. A good hitter rarely has more than 20% of his hits that are HR (200 hits/40 HR) so why should a good TEAM expect to score via the HR 10-15% more than its best hitters HR percentage ? Curious.

 

[JohnU]

HOW IN HELL do you go 6 innings against this guy and get TWO hits?
One of them is a leadoff single.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Robinson has 30 steal speed, or BETTER, but can't get enough at bats to do that... Because of the perpetual veteran Mendoza line OF that somehow always finds his way into Dusty's lineup. Choo is a 20 or more Sb guy. Cozart had only a handful of attempts last year, although he stole plenty in the minors. BP is a little slower now, but like Votto, could easily steal 15 if given 20 attempts. Heisey and Paul are quick. Frazier, Bruce and the catchers are the only snails on the team until Ludwick joins them. The Reds just don't attempt much. Earl Weaver hated the steal... and won a ton...But had a team of legendary sluggers, gold gloves AND FOUR 20 game winners in the rotation. This ain't Earl's team.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Cubs are probably saying the same thing about Cingrani. How good can that collarbone fastball look ?

 

[Redsfan1507]

Sometimes I think the Reds play to the level of mediocre competition.

 

[Redsfan1507]

A residual effect of getting used to standing around waiting on something to happen, instead of forcing the issue... Or maybe they just prefer to rope-a-dope for 12 rounds before the knockout ?

 

[JohnU]

Have the pitcher on the ropes and Frazier swings at the first changeup he sees.

 

[redsfan03]

I'm seeing a tendency of playing to the level of the competition thus far for the Reds. Better situational hitting, sounder managerial decisions, and better fundamentals will go a long way. Not sure if any of those three will change. The pitching has been good for the most part. I think most of the improvement needs to be on the offensive end. We need to find a 2 hitter. Cozart ain't cuttin' it....

 

[JohnU]

The Reds are being manhandled by guys who throw slow curves and changeups. Since it's pretty clear that's happening, why should anybody throw their ace out there? Just find somebody who fits the uniform and hand him the ball.

 

[eburg5000]

The 2 hole is killing us. I know that Philips is doing well in the 4 hole but I would like someone to step it up, and fill that spot and Phillips go back to the 2 hole

 

[JohnU]

I'm not sure but what I'd insert Derrick Robinson in the 2 spot and slide Cozart back to the 8 spot, moving Mesoraco up to 7th.

 

[WvuDieHard]

Dusty kills me with his lineups. Total nonsense as to WTF he is doing. Clueless may be a better term. Even though Heisey hit a HR last night, not sure that was the best option in left, with Frazier struggling why not Hanahan, and I would play Meso until his arm fell off before Corky plays. I realize its a 162 game season but this is only the 20th game--please. I remember when the big red machine played and Pete Rose would be in the lineup I dont care if they played 18 innings the night before. Johnny Bench would catch 145 games a year and didnt rest but once every 2 weeks. Dusty and his lineups are nothing but sheer insanity because common sense tells you what the best options are. You have to beat the teams you are supposed to beat and you do so by putting your potent lineup out there. When you dont, you give the tardinals the opportunity to beat you head to head and take you out of the race.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I've said all along the 2 hole would be critical for churn. What happens when Choo isn't hitting like Ty Cobb ? No offense to anyone, but Robinson is in Heiseys predicament lady year- he can't get in Dusty's lineup because of a " vet" hitting under .200. He's a switch hitter with speed- sounds like a 2 hit candidate to me. BP has done a decent job as a 4 hitter, but IMO, the 2 hole may be a more important spot, especially with Bruce hitting .280, and making larger dollars, might be time to have him step up a spot. There is no guarantee Ludwick is going to be the guy he was for 3 months last year, instead of the guy he was for the previous 3 years, when he gets back.

 

[JohnU]

Brantley suggested that using Corky with Cingrani was a good idea and it appears he was right.

I don't know about Hannahan other than he seems to have a nice knack off the bench, as does X-Paul.

 

[Redsfan1507]

This team takes too many strike 2's. the killer is, most of them aren't killer sliders on the black, they are fastballs in the middle of the plate. I'm stunned.

 

[redsfan03]

^Agreed. The plate approaches from many of the Reds hitters make me wonder if they ever look at a scouting report on a pitcher. It was blatantly obvious in game 1 of the Cubs series against Travis Wood that Wood was using the same approach every time. Fastball down the middle, taken for strike one. Then throw offspeed/breaking stuff for the second pitch. I'm not sure why they wouldn't have started looking for that juicy fastball in the wheelhouse after one turn through the lineup. It seems like they're getting down 0-2 and 1-2 a lot. I do think they're doing a better job of battling pitchers and driving up the pitch counts than last year. But that may have to do more with the addition of Choo and the addition by subtraction of Stubbs...

 

[JohnU]

No WAY should a pedestrian junkballer hold this team to 2 hits over 7 innings. I mean, NO WAY at ALL. But this isn't the first year I've seen this from Jacoby's philosophy. Evidently the Reds don't subscribe to scouting reports. I see two hitters on this team -- Choo and Votto -- who have a clue, which is one more than we had last year.