it is TIME to RELAX

[MHubbuch]

this team will be there in the end. We are going through a rough time with injuries. We have dealt with them before. What is amazing is our lack of contact. still striking out way to much.

Likes:
Choo leading off. His CF play still needs some work. but he has performed well.
Frazier has been as advertised. A good bat and average fielder. Even though he almost cost us a game last night.
Pitching- has done what we needed them to do. Starters are giving innings and pen is shutting the door.

Dislikes:
Our approach to Hitting. Still stinks.
Parra got's to go

 

[Redsfan1507]

Hub- glad you found us here in exile from CBS plane crash.

 

[JohnU]

 

[ckhokie]

Dislikes:
Our approach to Hitting. Still stinks.

This is my #1. We can't rely on the 'one big inning' when it comes to scoring, and as soon as we're not playing in a park that is as small as GABP, our reliance on short HRs becomes glaring. Crazy how a team can be best in the majors at home, and worst in the majors on the road

 

[JohnU]

Crazy how a team can be best in the majors at home, and worst in the majors on the road

Actually, in 2012, this wasn't the case. The Reds were basically even home and away ... 50 wins or so at home, 47 on the road. So far this year, however, only 6 road games, so, discounting a crappy effort in Parrotland, it's not easy to spot much of a trend.

I think it's way too early to evaluate this team other than on its potential. I don't see the offensive approach changing with the full moon, however. It is what it is.

 

[ckhokie]

Actually, in 2012, this wasn't the case. The Reds were basically even home and away ... 50 wins or so at home, 47 on the road. So far this year, however, only 6 road games, so, discounting a crappy effort in Parrotland, it's not easy to spot much of a trend.

I think it's way too early to evaluate this team other than on its potential. I don't see the offensive approach changing with the full moon, however. It is what it is.

I understand it is early, but I would think that the size of our park, our approach to hitting, and our offensive output on the road, are all somewhat correlated.

 

[JohnU]

Could be, but I think Reds pitchers should, long-run, gain half-a-run on the road and if that holds up, this could be downright amazing over the summer. I am seeing a little more patience with the hitters this year, with Heisey and Cozart the obvious exceptions. I don't think any of us were really aware of how bad Hanigan was hurt and that was a big hole in the lineup. (Not sure how half-a-run plays out in real life, but it looks good in SABR.)

 

[Ryanballa]

I'm not one bit worried about this club.We are winning and not even close to playing like we should be.This team is gonna click at some point and they will run away with this division.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I've seen varying degrees of Reds pitching over the last few years, with the trend getting better... hopefully that's still the case. If so, I see guys like Leake, Arroyo, Bailey and possibly Cingrani pitching better in bigger road parks. Latos came from a big park team in a big park division, and Cueto appears unhitable wherever. We actually have a lefty starting pitcher in the rotation, like 45 of the last 50 World Champs had.
..even though it may not be so after Cueto returns.

It's the offense that is always suspect. Regardless of the total runs, they starve between blowouts... and it's nothing new. Choo is an addition, and you hope for incremental improvement from streaky guys like Bruce... and Frazier beats an old and injured Rolen bat. Votto isn't on the DL... and Phillips is making walking JV hurt more...so why with improved hitters, do the Reds still suffer from the same struggles on offense ?

IMO, because the offensive philosophy hasn't changed... It's still Dustyball. Not that I dislike homers and runs in bunches, but is like to score some between those anomalies too. It takes using speed and productive outs and aggressively intelligent base running to accomplish. I just haven't seen much effort on those lines yet. To do the same things and expect different results isn't rational without players better at solo execution than the ones we have...putting a hit and run on with a slow runner at 1b and a pitcher at the plate, refusing to bunt over a leadoff double, or steal attempts in pitch out scenarios doesn't cut it. If our Reds could just add a little common small ball sense, with improved hitters, then we'd have something. Common sense isn't that common anymore.

 

[PHXazRED]

This team will be just fine. I'm a bit concerned about the number of runners we strand on a nightly basis but hey, we're still ahead of the pack.

 

[Beggs]

I understand it is early, but I would think that the size of our park, our approach to hitting, and our offensive output on the road, are all somewhat correlated.

Not necessarily. The Reds lead the majors in RBI, hits, plate appearances, and total bases but are middle of the road in homeruns. We have hit 22. 18 teams have 20 or more and 7 have hit more than us. We aren't living or dying on the long ball like we used to.

We have 37 PAs per home run
Braves: 23
Rockies: 28
Astros: 33
Mariners: 39

 

[Redsfan1507]

Yea, but a little distance from the pack while playing dregs of MLB would be nice. When the pack catches up on a beat up former front runner, they tend to chow down on them.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Beggs is right. Part of the off the pace HR production from Bruce, Votto and possibly BP in the 4 spot. A believer that unless you change something, status quo comes around eventually though ... Dusty's teams have always been more reliant on the long ball as a percentage of offense than most, and may again before its over. I'm hopefull the more doubles and walk offense we've seen lately will make for better consistency between the homers.

 

[ckhokie]

Not necessarily. The Reds lead the majors in RBI, hits, plate appearances, and total bases but are middle of the road in homeruns. We have hit 22. 18 teams have 20 or more and 7 have hit more than us. We aren't living or dying on the long ball like we used to.

We have 37 PAs per home run
Braves: 23
Rockies: 28
Astros: 33
Mariners: 39

Those numbers could easily just be a product of Choo and Votto getting on base > 50% of the time. If we're hitting HRs with guys on base we're obviously going to log more runs, have more total bases, and more RBIs.

I would be curious to see what our % of runs scored via HR are compared to the rest of the league. I am not convinced we're not living and dying by the HR any less than we have been the last couple of seasons. We just have a bona fide lead-off guy now.

 

[MHubbuch]

HomeRuns will come once the weather heats up.

But, if your striking out more than 8 times a game as a team. Someone has to go!!!!!.

This club is talented. But we need to put the ball in play. Strikeouts are a part of the game. I realize that. But if they do not start moving runners along. we will be like last year. 1 and done

 

[JohnU]

Often it isn't how many home runs, but when we get them. I think there are a couple of games that the Reds scored beau coup runs without any homers -- the 9-run inning against St. Louis and the 8-runner the other night.

Statistics are always fun and evaluate a team over the length of the season, but not necessarily over a specific 10-game interval.

The HR totals will go up with the the weather heats up, and that's a known fact about all of baseball, Cincy not really being an exception.

I find the LOB totals to be a bit hair-pulling but the number of runners that the team has since Choo's arrival has allowed for a lot more churn. Churn gives the better hitters more looks at the pitcher.

 

[Dr. Cranfill]

I'm not worried in the least. Are you kidding me? Havent been full strength yet. Bruce JUST hit his first homer and is still hovering around .300. Votto is just getting warmed up. Marshall hasnt been in his rightful place yet. Zero reason to be worried. This is gonna be a magical year.

 

[Beggs]

Those numbers could easily just be a product of Choo and Votto getting on base > 50% of the time. If we're hitting HRs with guys on base we're obviously going to log more runs, have more total bases, and more RBIs.

I would be curious to see what our % of runs scored via HR are compared to the rest of the league. I am not convinced we're not living and dying by the HR any less than we have been the last couple of seasons. We just have a bona fide lead-off guy now.

Too much work since no one has it compiled already, but I did it for this year for the reds.

30.6% runs from HRs. (I could have sworn I saw a chart from 2011 that showed the league average was 37% at the time)

3-4 in games without a HR

In the 5 games with 10 or more runs:
The 15 run game had 12 runs come by HR
The other 4 games had 45 runs scored, 7 by HR

 

[JohnU]

Part of the charm of GABP isn't the home run, it's the porches. Outfielders have to play pretty deep there (or should) and that allows a lot of balls to fall in for hits that might be outs in some other places. That SHOULD equal a lot of baserunners. The trick there is to throw ground balls if you are the Reds pitchers.

 

[Redsfan1507]

How many games would the Reds win if they scored 5 runs every game ? Quite a few with good pitching... But 5 runs X 162 games is 810 runs ( not very many) but 30% of those runs via the HR is over 260 runs...if they were ALL 2 run homers, that's still more HR than most teams expect to hit. I don't have the stats, but I remember last years team being among the most HR dependent teams in MLB...and were LAST in the NL in steals...and the blunt truth is, unless a lot more guys hit .300 and/ or show signs of advancing and scoring more runs with other than homers and 2 out hits ( the MLB average with 2 outs is .200) it's not going to change over a larger sample size.