I'm nervous about drafting Miller

[SteelersPride]

It seems that all the backs have red flags. Except Gurley. And as I have already said that just puts a bigger target on his back.

gurley has the hardest schedule there is, i see regression

 

[Stomp]

Priest Holmes BAL to KC
Jamaal Lewis BAL to CLE
Thomas Jones at least 2x in his career CHI to KC, then KC to NYJ
Marshawn Lynch traded but was gonna get cut by BUF for off field issues
Darren Sproles SD to NO (I think he got traded to PHI for like a 6th round pick or something cheap)
Edgerrin James IND to ARZ

those are just the ones i remember, sure there are a few other good ones as well.
happens a lot more than one might think

Heres a few more

Reggie Bush times 2 Miami and Detroit(before he got hurt anyways)
Marcus Allen turned his career around in KC
Michael Turner was a monster after he joined Atlanta
Curtis Martin HOF career with the Jets
Corey Dillon

 

[SteelersPride]

round 2 pick 3, sounds good

 

[eaglesnut]

Heres a few more

Reggie Bush times 2 Miami and Detroit(before he got hurt anyways)
Marcus Allen turned his career around in KC
Michael Turner was a monster after he joined Atlanta
Curtis Martin HOF career with the Jets
Corey Dillon

Michael Turner is a great example. He left after his rookie deal as well. Where as most of these guys listed left later in their careers. Like Corey Dillon. Curtis Martin was always a stud, but does fit the timing of Lamar's move to Houston.

 

[SteelersPride]

/thread

 

[averagejoe]

When did a FA RB go star anywhere else?

Not sure that Miami thought Miller was "star" material to begin with?
Miami gave him the rock nearly the least of all NFL teams.

Maybe this is a poor comparison, but Thomas Jones was considered a bust in Arizona and Tampa. When he got to Chicago and the Jets (2 run-first team philosophies), that label changed.

Another is Ricky Williams. Was merely average on the Saints, but had at least 1 great season (his first when he moved) in Miami.

 

[eaglesnut]

Not sure that Miami thought Miller was "star" material to begin with?
Miami gave him the rock nearly the least of all NFL teams.

That is one of the premises here. If one team didn't think you were worth keeping as a starter, what makes you suddenly a top 5 rusher on another team? It's not like Miami really had someone else. Michael Turner had Tomlinson in the way in SD. Understandable that they didn't keep him.

Maybe this is a poor comparison, but Thomas Jones was considered a bust in Arizona and Tampa. When he got to Chicago and the Jets (2 run-first team philosophies), that label changed.

Another is Ricky Williams. Was merely average on the Saints, but had at least 1 great season (his first when he moved) in Miami.

Jones and Ricky, and Lynch and Edge, who were also mentioned, were very high picks with freakish potential. Lamar wasn't.

Lamar's case seems to be pretty unique.

 

[averagejoe]

Jones and Ricky, and Lynch and Edge, who were also mentioned, were very high picks with freakish potential. Lamar wasn't.

This is true, but this shouldn't be the barometer.
I think Monkey mentioned Michael Turner - he wasn't drafted to be a starter.
Just my opinion but I think the guys who were drafted lower are more likely to play with a chip on their shoulder. As opposed to the early draft guys who think they're "entitled" to be the starter.

 

[eaglesnut]

This is true, but this shouldn't be the barometer.
I think Monkey mentioned Michael Turner - he wasn't drafted to be a starter.
Just my opinion but I think the guys who were drafted lower are more likely to play with a chip on their shoulder. As opposed to the early draft guys who think they're "entitled" to be the starter.

A guy that isn't kept by his team can have a chip on his shoulder too. Think Lynch.

Michael Turner seems to be the best positive historical example, but the huge, major difference is that Miami then had no RB after letting Lamar leave and the Chargers had HoF Ladainian Tomlinson after letting Turner leave. The Dolphins are saying "Lamar? Well he's a guy that's super replaceable."

 

[SmokingMonkey]

The Dolphins are saying "Lamar? Well he's a guy that's super replaceable."

Coming from an organization that has pretty much been a dumpster fire since Marino left, not sure they are the best at valuing talent/players. Their 7-9 and 8-8's the past decade have left Jeff Fisher mighty jealous.

Also overheard in Dolphins front office:
"Wes Welker at WR? nah, he's just a small guy that can return punts and kicks, who would want to throw him the ball on offense? Only an idiot would try to make him a WR."

"Snap the ball to the RB, instead of the QB.....yea, that'll work for years and years!!!!"

"Brandon Marshall is a rare talent at WR, let's see if we can trade him and get some third round picks"

"Heard Texas A&M has a WR that can throw a spiral, let's hire their coach onto our staff and make that WR an NFL QB"

 

[eaglesnut]

Coming from an organization that has pretty much been a dumpster fire since Marino left, not sure they are the best at valuing talent/players. Their 7-9 and 8-8's the past decade have left Jeff Fisher mighty jealous.

Also overheard in Dolphins front office:
"Wes Welker at WR? nah, he's just a small guy that can return punts and kicks, who would want to throw him the ball on offense? Only an idiot would try to make him a WR."

"Snap the ball to the RB, instead of the QB.....yea, that'll work for years and years!!!!"

"Brandon Marshall is a rare talent at WR, let's see if we can trade him and get some third round picks"

"Heard Texas A&M has a WR that can throw a spiral, let's hire their coach onto our staff and make that WR an NFL QB"

I hear ya. That's why Lamar gets any consideration at all though, because the Texans disagreed with the Dolphins. The question is how much consideration to give. And you'd think there would be some historically comparable context on which to help inform that decision.

 

[Brees#1]

Exactly and I'm not drafting him. I am aiming for Elliot, Bell, Lacy, and Charles for early RBs.

 

[averagejoe]

The question is how much consideration to give.

Let me just say eaglesnut that I enjoy reading your posts. Truthfully.
I may not always agree, but I see your train of thought.

Keep in mind I'm not trying to convince you about Miller. In fact, I hope all the owners in my drafts have your position and are not overly thrilled about drafting him.

That said, consider this:

1) Under O'Brien, the Texans averaged 512 rush attempts the last 2 seasons.
2) Lamar Miller has a career yards-per-carry of 4.6, again for emphasis, this is his career ypc.

Let's hypothetically say that the Texans give Miller only 50% of their average carries which would be very low, or 256 carries.
And let's say that in a down year, Miller only averages 3.9 ypc.

256 carries x 3.9 ypc = 998 rush yards.​

Keep in mind this is, for arguments sake, on the low end of everything - carries and ypc.
So... guess how many RB had more than 998 rush yards last season?

Spoiler: Answer

Only 7 RB. Gurley, Peterson, Martin, Latavius, Freeman, Ivory and McFadden.

 

[eaglesnut]

Let me just say eaglesnut that I enjoy reading your posts. Truthfully.
I may not always agree, but I see your train of thought.

Keep in mind I'm not trying to convince you about Miller. In fact, I hope all the owners in my drafts have your position and are not overly thrilled about drafting him.

That said, consider this:

1) Under O'Brien, the Texans averaged 512 rush attempts the last 2 seasons.
2) Lamar Miller has a career yards-per-carry of 4.6, again for emphasis, this is his career ypc.

Let's hypothetically say that the Texans give Miller only 50% of their average carries which would be very low, or 256 carries.
And let's say that in a down year, Miller only averages 3.9 ypc.

256 carries x 3.9 ypc = 998 rush yards.​

Keep in mind this is, for arguments sake, on the low end of everything - carries and ypc.
So... guess how many RB had more than 998 rush yards last season?

Spoiler: Answer

Only 7 RB. Gurley, Peterson, Martin, Latavius, Freeman, Ivory and McFadden.

That would certainly put him in the top 5 for touches. But aren't the Texans trying to throw more? And last year the Oline blocked at 3.8 ypc. And Lamar's never had more than 250 touches before. Can he hold up?

Speaking of Latavius, how/why is Lamar better and less risky?

Identifying a floor is useful. I'm not worried about Lamar as a RB2 though, I'm concerned about pulling the trigger on him as my RB1 and #1 star on my roster.

 

[SteelersPride]

and going

 

[TREFF]

That would certainly put him in the top 5 for touches. But aren't the Texans trying to throw more? And last year the Oline blocked at 3.8 ypc. And Lamar's never had more than 250 touches before. Can he hold up?

Speaking of Latavius, how/why is Lamar better and less risky?

Identifying a floor is useful. I'm not worried about Lamar as a RB2 though, I'm concerned about pulling the trigger on him as my RB1 and #1 star on my roster.

That's pretty much my thinking as well, Texans are poised to throw more. O'Brien and the OC, whatshisname, both come from the Pat's coaching tree, they ran so much becuase the QB sucked so bad, so they went out and made the splash signing, the drafted 2 WR's both relatively high draft picks, and signed a hybrid style RB in Miller, that's an offense gearing up for change.

However, Miller will still have great value, regardless since he contributes plenty in the passing game, but I don't think it's realistic to try and base his value as a runner based on previous history in Houston. And the fairest point, can he actually handle a full time workload? I dunno, but if you are going to use recent history in Houston, it suggests that the RB ends up injured quite often.