Good stats page for Alabama

[4down20]

This is advanced stats. Similar(but better) than what I did in my rankings in getting quality stats.

It actually ranks Alabama #1 right now by a large margin. Gives us a 75% chance to beat Georgia this weekend and has us as 11 pt favorites.

Believe it or not, but it says we have the 12th best offense and best defense in the country.

It's only week 4, so don't bet your house or anything this weekend as data is limited. But with all the negative things everyone keeps saying and how Alabama is in decline, it's nice to see the advanced stats still think otherwise.

Alabama page with all kinds of goodies:

2015 Alabama advanced statistical profile

And here is the source of the S&P ratings ranked by team. Georgia is #7, so obviously our worries are justified.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

 

[4down20]

I actually feel better about this weeks game than I did for the Ole Miss game. I thought we'd be a worse team than Ole Miss and I know we aren't now.

I don't think people realize Coker and the offense had a really good 2nd half of that game even with all the drops. I'm assuming since this is a serious game where they aren't calling plays to "improve" and the coaching staff isn't dicking around with multiple game plans and starting our backup QB we can expect to see a Wisconsin type gameplan this week.

The defense and the team seems to be refocused after the loss.

I'm actually optimistic while many fans seem to act like the world is falling apart and teams from 2007 and 2008 are somehow better than our current team(I'd love to knock some fuckers off the bandwagon, if we do lose that's a bright side).

Still only putting 1 confidence pt on us to win and I don't give a crap how bad of a gump that makes me this time.

 

[bamabear82]

I actually feel better about this weeks game than I did for the Ole Miss game. I thought we'd be a worse team than Ole Miss and I know we aren't now.

I don't think people realize Coker and the offense had a really good 2nd half of that game even with all the drops. I'm assuming since this is a serious game where they aren't calling plays to "improve" and the coaching staff isn't dicking around with multiple game plans and starting our backup QB we can expect to see a Wisconsin type gameplan this week.

The defense and the team seems to be refocused after the loss.

I'm actually optimistic while many fans seem to act like the world is falling apart and teams from 2007 and 2008 are somehow better than our current team(I'd love to knock some fuckers off the bandwagon, if we do lose that's a bright side).

Still only putting 1 confidence pt on us to win and I don't give a crap how bad of a gump that makes me this time.

I agree completely. The closer we get to game time the better I feel. Sometimes I start getting nervous as the week goes on but sometimes, like this week, I feel alot more even keeled about things.

Also, I'm still undecided on the confidence points front. It stung pretty bad losing 10 pts on the Ole Miss game, I'm 11th and coulda used those damn points, but I think I'll feel like a turd if I don't put 10 on Bama. #BammerProblems

 

[4down20]

I agree completely. The closer we get to game time the better I feel. Sometimes I start getting nervous as the week goes on but sometimes, like this week, I feel alot more even keeled about things.

Also, I'm still undecided on the confidence points front. It stung pretty bad losing 10 pts on the Ole Miss game, I'm 11th and coulda used those damn points, but I think I'll feel like a turd if I don't put 10 on Bama. #BammerProblems

I'd be in first place if I had kept my 1 pt on that game and hadn't missed out on 5 pts the first week due to backwards confidence points the 1st week. It'd be in 3rd with just the Ole Miss game being 1 pt.

I'd be upset about it, except the truth is I'm lucky to be on the 1st page at all and it's only a matter of time before I drop like a rock anyway.

 

[Bamabino]

The only stat that worries me right now is Coker's QB eff. rating.

123.93(10th in SEC)

2014 Blake 157.57(1st)
2013 AJ......167.16(3rd)
2012 AJ......175.28(1st)
2011 AJ......147.27(3rd)
2010 GMac.168.99(2nd)
2009 GMac.140.54(4th)
2008 JPW...122.28(5th)


Coker needs to step up.

 

[4down20]

The only stat that worries me right now is Coker's QB eff. rating.

123.93(10th in SEC)

2014 Blake 157.57(1st)
2013 AJ......167.16(3rd)
2012 AJ......175.28(1st)
2011 AJ......147.27(3rd)
2010 GMac.168.99(2nd)
2009 GMac.140.54(4th)
2008 JPW...122.28(5th)


Coker needs to step up.

Read that the players are saying he's getting better and more confident now that he doesn't have to worry about being the starter.

Anxious to see how he does this weekend.

 

[Bamabino]

I hope he's starting to get more comfortable as it's do or die time. If he don't do, I'm going to start calling him John Parker Coker.

 

[bamabear82]

 

[4down20]

And 3 of our 5 games have been against quality opponents while many teams have only played 1 decent opponent max, some still 0.

 

[4down20]

Now says our toughest remaining game is LSU, which gives us "only" an 81% chance of winning.

Hope it's right.

 

[bamabear82]

Now says our toughest remaining game is LSU, which gives us "only" an 81% chance of winning.

Hope it's right.

LSU always plays us tough but, tbh, I'm more worried about A&M.

 

[4down20]

LSU always plays us tough but, tbh, I'm more worried about A&M.

ESPN FPI had us losing last week to A&M, only a 44% chance of winning.

I don't think it's updated this week, or if it has then it hasn't changed.

It also had us losing to Georgia and Ole Miss. Technically it was right about Ole Miss, but not for the right reasons.

I think it's off it's rocker to be honest. A&M is not that great and they do not have Johnny Manziel and they aren't putting up big points. I'll be more surprised that we lose than if we have another score similar to last year.

This team is stacked with talent. The only thing standing in their way is themselves. Computer stats early in the year can be rather tricky due to limited data. But I don't think that's the case with us because we have played 3 quality teams in our 1st 5 games. I think what it's seeing is legit and ESPN's FPI only has us losing because of human input.

Hope i'm not too gumped up or something, but I've seen the best Alabama team I've ever seen these weeks outside the mistakes, and we got a decent glimpse this weekend what they can do when they don't make them. All those freshman making plays on both sides of the ball are only going to get better.

Just hope we stay focused.

 

[4down20]

Rush defense rank in the S&P: 5th best.
Pass defense rank in the S&P: 5th best.

Passing success rank: 14th best in the country, only 29.9% of passes are completed against us. National Average is 40%.

Here's what we see with our 3rd and long situations that makes us thing bad things:

Standard down situations: 3rd best defense in the country, 30.4% success rate only allowed, average is 46.6%.

But in Passing down situations, we drop down 47th best in the country. 26.6% success rate, while the average is 29.9%. That is an area of concern and it shows up in the stats.

Other notes:

Calvin Ridley officially became the #1 reciever stat wise. 245 yards now. Adarius has more targets, but only 1 more catch and 205 yards.

Adarius needs to become more reliable, he's only catching 53% of his targets. Drake has the same %. Despite playing in the rain, it looks like all the other receivers all increased their catch %'s with the exception of OJ Howard who was targeted twice and has 0 catches(1 I know was not his fault, can't think of the other). Based on memory, might be wrong somewhere in there.

Looking damn good IMO.

 

[bamabear82]

 

[bamabear82]

ESPN Football Power Index - 2015 - ESPN

 

[4down20]

ESPN Football Power Index - 2015 - ESPN

Yeah they still have Texas A&M beating us. Guess it has updated.

Off it's fucking rocker I say.

 

[4down20]

Alabama NFL "Busts" yards per catch stats:

2015 NFL Player Receiving Stats - National Football League - ESPN

1. Mark Ingram
2. Amari Cooper
3. Julio Jones

 

[Bamabino]

Arky ran 3 plays on Bama's side of the 50 all night. All 3 after Cokers' 2nd interception + penalty gave them the ball at the 12.

 

[bamabear82]

 

[Mistaken4193]

Cam has not played well this year at all. But in his defense he has been playing hurt all year.