Giants, Melky Break off Talks

[MarcoPolo]

I believe that Melky will take the largest contract offered, and that it won't be from the Giants. $12M/yr wont get it done, because some team will offer him more.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I believe that Melky will take the largest contract offered, and that it won't be from the Giants. $12M/yr wont get it done, because some team will offer him more.

Agreed. Barring a complete collapse from him down the stretch, and if we make the playoffs, I think he will be looking for something between 3/42 and 5/70, purely off the top of my head.

2012 San Francisco Giants Payroll, Roster, Uniform Numbers - Baseball-Reference.com

Taking a crack at the 2013 payroll:

Committed
Cain 20
Timmy 22
Zito 20
Huff 2 (buyout)
Bum .75
Pablo 5.7
Lopez 4.25
Vogey 5

Committed total $79.7

FA's
Melky 12 (Year one of a 5/70 - 12,13,14,15,16?)
Pagan 8 (say 3/25?)
Pence 10 (arb to kick the tires on him? Or part of a 3/30 or so?)
Scutaro - pass - he's 36, and tho I like him...he's 36
Wilson - pass - too expensive and too risky
Affeldt - 4 - pass on more than that

FA subtotal - $34.0

That 11 players, and a subtotal of $113.7

Add 14 other controlled players at avg of 600k each - $8.4.

That's $122.1. If we go to $140 next year, that's $18 mill for some quality FA needs (Casilla at closer, a 2B-SS, more bullpen help, or a little more to keep Melky, or a mid-year acquisition).

Add that 2014 sees Zito cost drop by $13, and then there is the Timmy question - is he worth $22m/yr?

All that ignores extending Buster, and possibly Belt and Crawford.

CAVEAT: I admit to being ignorant of most of the CBA details. And I probably have a glaring omission or two.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I tried to fine-tune 2013 payroll a bit, and I welcome other input and comments:

SF Giants Payroll 2013

Starters
Timmy $22.0 fixed
Cain $20.0 fixed
Zito $20.0 fixed
Vogey $5.0 fixed
Bum $.075 fixed

Starters Subtotal $67.75

Bullpen
Lopez $4.25 fixed
Affeldt $4.0 FA
Romo $2.5 FA
Casilla $2.5 FA
3 others $3.0 FA

Bullpen Subtotal $16.25

C/IF
Buster $2.5 Arb-1
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $0.5 Pre-Arb
Theriot $1.5 FA
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $5.7 Fixed
Arias $1.0 Arb-1

C/IF Subtotal $12.2

OF
Melky $12.0 FA (1st yr of 5/70 - 12,13,14,15,16)?
Pagan $8.0 FA (1st yr of 3/25)?
Pence $10.0 (Arb-3 or 1st yr of 3/30)?
Blanco $0.5 Pre-Arb
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb

OF Subtotal $31.0

Prelim Total $127.2 (for 24 players)

That leaves room for $10mm-$12mm for other moves: (a quality 2B/SS, a mid-season acquisition, contingency for injury replacement), although I don't know what the total payroll budget is right now. I'm guessing $135-$140mm, but that is a WAG on my part.