G5 version of CFP?

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

I think if a team like Houston last year would have gone undefeated, a case could have been made for them to be in the CFP. They would have had two top 15 OOC wins(entering bowl season), and would have had wins over +.500 teams in Tulsa, Memphis, Navy and then theoretically the AAC CG. There's probably only a couple of teams where a case can be made. WMU had no shot due to their OOC schedule, beating NW and Illinois doesn't move the needle at all. Looking at the G5 schools this year, the best team is probably USF, but they play a crap OOC schedule(at San Jose State, vs. Stony Brook, vs. Illinois, vs. Umass) that even going undefeated they probably won't end up in the top 10 by the time the final CFP rankings come out.

For a G5 school to ever get a shot, they're going to have to beat one if not to two P5 schools that end the regular season ranked, or pull off a Cincy over Michigan type of win, then run the table.

For a G5 school to have a shot, they're going to have to put together 2-3 perfect seasons in a row, or close to it. Houston only would have had a shot because of their standing the previous year. If Western kept Fleck and returned most of their team, then they could have (maybe) gotten a spot with a repeat performance. The problem is, it's just incredibly hard, if not impossible, to do. You have to imagine that every single year there's going to be 4 conference champions from the P5 schools that are either undefeated or with 1 loss. Is a team like Western ever going to jump them, even with an undefeated season? I don't think so. They deserve a championship of their own and should be considered a different division in football.

 

[ericd7633]

For a G5 school to have a shot, they're going to have to put together 2-3 perfect seasons in a row, or close to it. Houston only would have had a shot because of their standing the previous year. If Western kept Fleck and returned most of their team, then they could have (maybe) gotten a spot with a repeat performance. The problem is, it's just incredibly hard, if not impossible, to do. You have to imagine that every single year there's going to be 4 conference champions from the P5 schools that are either undefeated or with 1 loss. Is a team like Western ever going to jump them, even with an undefeated season? I don't think so. They deserve a championship of their own and should be considered a different division in football.

I would have had no problem if the committee would have taken an undefeated Houston over either Washington or Ohio State last year, especially Washington. I would agree that's it's extremely unlikely a G5 team ever makes the CFP, but they if schedule good enough and go undefeated, I think they deserve it. I also think at some point we'll have multiple P5 schools with multiple losses, it did happen last year, Ohio State just got picked over both schools. It's just going to take beating multiple ranked schools OOC, which is hard even to schedule that way.

 

[NolePride]

Folks...this playoff system isn't a product of the NCAA. This was the invention
of 4 leagues...The Big10, The Big12, The SEC and the Pac12. The ACC wasn't
involved in the initial process of any of this stuff.

Anyway, you folks, don't honestly believe that they formed this to give "non-members"
a chance at winning the NC, do you?

If Boise State beats Bama, FSU, Ohio St and USC as its OOC games in one year. They'll
be the 5th ranked team in America headed for the Fiesta Bowl.

 

[Deep Creek]

Not only would that hurt
recruiting for the bottom-feeders of the Power 5, but some of those bottom feeders
could opt out of that Power 5 league.

I don't think the bottom feeders will go anywhere as long as their take is $20million+ every year. They take their money similar to the G5s and FCS teams that are willing to take a huge payday to go play at the biggies. Only the bottom feeders get the annual check instead of one game money. They'll just continue to take their annual ass whippings and occasionally spit out a good 9-3 or 10-2 season when everything falls just right.

 

[xpuctaqpGT]

Are there any G5 teams that even have a schedule that could potentially get them into the playoffs this year?

Let's assume that the team in question goes undefeated. Let us further assume that any team they play performs within usual norms. Which teams would have the best shot?

For example: UCF. They have Georgia Tech and Maryland as OOC opponents. They would need both GT and Maryland to have some of their best seasons ever to be in the conversation. Also the other AAC teams would need to have some of their best seasons with OOC games ever. Even if UCF ran the table, their chances of getting a playoff birth? Maybe 1 in 10,000.

 

[Deep Creek]

If Boise State beats Bama, FSU, Ohio St and USC as its OOC games in one year. They'll
be the 5th ranked team in America headed for the Fiesta Bowl.

Are there any G5 teams that even have a schedule that could potentially get them into the playoffs this year?

I think NP answered it with his statement about Boise. Unless their conference opponents in the other 8 games also had big wins in OOC similar to Bama, FSU, Ohio St and USC, the committee probably wouldn't be impressed with them beating said 8.

 

[ericd7633]

Are there any G5 teams that even have a schedule that could potentially get them into the playoffs this year?

Let's assume that the team in question goes undefeated. Let us further assume that any team they play performs within usual norms. Which teams would have the best shot?

For example: UCF. They have Georgia Tech and Maryland as OOC opponents. They would need both GT and Maryland to have some of their best seasons ever to be in the conversation. Also the other AAC teams would need to have some of their best seasons with OOC games ever. Even if UCF ran the table, their chances of getting a playoff birth? Maybe 1 in 10,000.

Honestly, there probably is no realistic option this season. South Florida is arguably the best G5 team, at least heading into the season and their OOC is complete garbage(@ San Jose State, vs. Stony Brook, vs. Illinois, vs. Umass). That type of schedule just isn't going to get it done, even if a team like Illinois was a projected bowl team, let alone one of the bottom 3/4 P5 schools.

Boise State has an intriguing schedule(vs. Troy(10-3 last year), @ Wazzu, vs. Virginia, @ BYU) but that certainly isn't going to move the needle much, unless UVA drastically improves, but that's no different than a game against Illinois basically.

Some G5 teams that play really good OOC schedules would be the following:

East Carolina - @ WVU, vs. Virginia Tech, vs. BYU
UL-Monroe - @ Florida State, @ Auburn, @ Memphis
Colorado State - vs. Oregon State, vs. Colorado(Denver), @ Alabama
Fresno State - @ Washington, @ Alabama, vs. BYU
San Jose State - vs. USF, @ Texas, @ Utah, @ BYU
Rice - vs. Stanford(Sydney), @ Houston, @ Pitt

Obviously though, none of those stand a chance in hell of going undefeated. I think a perfect schedule for USF would have been what Colorado State is playing. 1 lower level P5 team(Oregon State, 1 fringe top 25 team(Colorado) and then a top 3 team on the road(Alabama). Obviously, that's easier said than done, but that would be the optimal scheduling practice when you have a team perceived to be as good as them. Hypothetically USF runs though that type of schedule, plus the AAC(which is probably the best G5 conference), I think they'd stand a great chance to make it. But that's really, really hard to do.

 

[NolePride]

I don't think the bottom feeders will go anywhere as long as their take is $20million+ every year. They take their money similar to the G5s and FCS teams that are willing to take a huge payday to go play at the biggies. Only the bottom feeders get the annual check instead of one game money. They'll just continue to take their annual ass whippings and occasionally spit out a good 9-3 or 10-2 season when everything falls just right.

I disagree a bit, because if the Gof5 split, their recruiting will be harmed. Not only would the
Gof5 have its own playoffs, but would retain its bowl spots they currently have. Players get
500 bucks worth of gifts for going to a bowl game. Thus a player going to Appy St could wind
up getting 2K worth of gifts in his career, rather than going to Kansas and receiving sweatshirts
with a funny looking bird on it.

They lose a lot of money, but they could redeem some of it thru bowls and playoff appearances
PLUS their expenses would be drastically reduced.

I just believe that some would ponder the thought of dropping down to be able to compete.

 

[Deep Creek]

I just believe that some would ponder the thought of dropping down to be able to compete.

I think they have to ponder such right now. Let's face it, a lot of P5s have a hard time "keeping up with the Jones'" right now. Only something like 30 schools have self sufficient programs annually...at least that is what USA Today reported a couple of years ago. While TV revenue may be split evenly, nothing else is even close to even.

 

[NolePride]

I think they have to ponder such right now. Let's face it, a lot of P5s have a hard time "keeping up with the Jones'" right now. Only something like 30 schools have self sufficient programs annually...at least that is what USA Today reported a couple of years ago. While TV revenue may be split evenly, nothing else is even close to even.

I agree with every bit of that.

Those contracts have huge payouts and we have all been taught about the League "Footprint."
Well, that's ok for Football, but when you are sending your tennis team or softball team
to Boston to play a league game...you are draining the profits.

The airlines don't charter by the number of passengers...they charter by the plane. The expenses
are the same for women's softball as they are for football. You can throw them on commercial
flights and then deal with those consequences.

I mention softball because this year, during the super regionals, the NCAA eliminated the doubleheader
on the second day and required a third day to play the if needed game. Which, means another
night in a Motel/Hotel...3 more meals...another day of bus rental...etc, etc. It seems they are
trying to raise the costs of competing rather than controlling them.

This is big business...big and expensive. And the coaches demand everything be first class. I guess
that's ok...but they should have to watch every nickel also. They're all trying to outdo the other.

I read an article on San Diego University and their football squad. They compete in the
same non-scholarship 1-AA league as Dayton, Butler, Morehead St, Jacksonville Univ, and others.
It was intriguing what their ad did to control costs. Those guys are flying cross-country at least
4 times a year, but they stay afloat.

 

[Deep Creek]

This is big business...big and expensive. And the coaches demand everything be first class. I guess
that's ok

Yeah, nothing wrong with first class. But some of this nonsense is over the top! But, donors are usually paying for that "over the top".

Hell, we have some high schools here in Texas that provide nicer shit than a lot of the colleges/universities provide.