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Part 1 of 3
Pittsburgh's Brown rises to top, Detroit's Johnson falls some - Eric Karabell Blog - ESPN
By Eric Karabell
My annual strategy thoughts on how to deal with the quarterback, running back, tight end, team defense and kicker spots in fantasy football don’t seem to alter much, but when it comes to wide receiver, however, anything goes. I could start a draft with three receivers out of four picks, or be patient and wait. There’s obviously excellent depth at wide receiver, perhaps more than ever in the top tiers, but also the middle, and pretty much toward the end as well. There will be intriguing wide receivers who will not get selected in ESPN standard formats.
This is the third of four installments in our series on tiered systems, why they matter and how to both prepare and gain from them in your drafts and auctions this season. As noted in prior weeks with QB and RB, the most important thing is to handle the business well in advance of when you’ll need it, then tweak the results. Plan well and you’ll know where the drop-offs are and who’s a better team fit. Use your own rankings and those from ESPN and myself as a guide, though maybe you don’t feel the same way I do about a player. It’s your team, after all!
Tier 1: Late first-round/early second-round value
Tier 2: Second round
Tier 3: Third round
Tier 4: Fourth round
Tier 5: Fifth round
Tier 6: Sixth round
Tier 7: Seventh round
Pittsburgh's Brown rises to top, Detroit's Johnson falls some - Eric Karabell Blog - ESPN
By Eric Karabell
My annual strategy thoughts on how to deal with the quarterback, running back, tight end, team defense and kicker spots in fantasy football don’t seem to alter much, but when it comes to wide receiver, however, anything goes. I could start a draft with three receivers out of four picks, or be patient and wait. There’s obviously excellent depth at wide receiver, perhaps more than ever in the top tiers, but also the middle, and pretty much toward the end as well. There will be intriguing wide receivers who will not get selected in ESPN standard formats.
This is the third of four installments in our series on tiered systems, why they matter and how to both prepare and gain from them in your drafts and auctions this season. As noted in prior weeks with QB and RB, the most important thing is to handle the business well in advance of when you’ll need it, then tweak the results. Plan well and you’ll know where the drop-offs are and who’s a better team fit. Use your own rankings and those from ESPN and myself as a guide, though maybe you don’t feel the same way I do about a player. It’s your team, after all!
Tier 1: Late first-round/early second-round value
Nobody is more consistent from week to week, and he was last year’s top player in PPR formats. I thought about making him his own tier. No, really.
2. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos: Pretend Peyton Manning retired tomorrow. Would he be top-10? Nope. But Peyton’s still around! Don’t worry!
3. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys: I generally don’t buy into motivation factor, but this guy has got it with the way last season ended.
2. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos: Pretend Peyton Manning retired tomorrow. Would he be top-10? Nope. But Peyton’s still around! Don’t worry!
3. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys: I generally don’t buy into motivation factor, but this guy has got it with the way last season ended.
Tier 2: Second round
4. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers: Nothing to worry about here. Aaron Rodgers will make sure of it.
5. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons: Capable of an Antonio Brown-like season soon.
6. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals: You don’t have to own his quarterback. Green is special.
7. Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants: He’s really good and he knows it. Only concern, and hopefully it’s a minor one, is health.
8. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: He has missed games each of the past two seasons, thus the fall from top of the position rankings to this, though it’s still good. It’s not unreasonable to hope for another 100-catch, 16-game season.
9. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears: There’s wide receiver change around him, but nothing should alter for him. Again, the Jay Cutler interceptions don’t get charged to Jeffery.
5. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons: Capable of an Antonio Brown-like season soon.
6. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals: You don’t have to own his quarterback. Green is special.
7. Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants: He’s really good and he knows it. Only concern, and hopefully it’s a minor one, is health.
8. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: He has missed games each of the past two seasons, thus the fall from top of the position rankings to this, though it’s still good. It’s not unreasonable to hope for another 100-catch, 16-game season.
9. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears: There’s wide receiver change around him, but nothing should alter for him. Again, the Jay Cutler interceptions don’t get charged to Jeffery.
Tier 3: Third round
10. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos: Breakout season in Denver was no real surprise. He should do it again, too.
11. Randall Cobb, Packers: Made a wise decision sticking around Wisconsin.
12. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts: Lots of depth for Andrew Luck to throw to, but Hilton should be tops.
11. Randall Cobb, Packers: Made a wise decision sticking around Wisconsin.
12. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts: Lots of depth for Andrew Luck to throw to, but Hilton should be tops.
Tier 4: Fourth round
13. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Yes, it’s a rookie quarterback, but still an upgrade over last season. Anything would be. And Evans scored 12 touchdowns anyway!
14. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans: He could use a quarterback upgrade too. Still, he can improve on his sophomore season, in which he caught 76 passes for 1,210 yards.
15. Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers: Pretty tough to deal with near the goal line, as Cam Newton figured out quickly.
16. Julian Edelman, New England Patriots: People want to drop him from the top 20 because Tom Brady won’t play the first month, but what if Jimmy Garoppolo has mad game? He could be very good.
17. Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints: The beneficiary of the Jimmy Graham trade, in theory. He would have had a big rookie year without the thumb injury.
18. Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills: Future top-10 wide receiver, even in Buffalo. They’ll get a QB at some point.
14. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans: He could use a quarterback upgrade too. Still, he can improve on his sophomore season, in which he caught 76 passes for 1,210 yards.
15. Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers: Pretty tough to deal with near the goal line, as Cam Newton figured out quickly.
16. Julian Edelman, New England Patriots: People want to drop him from the top 20 because Tom Brady won’t play the first month, but what if Jimmy Garoppolo has mad game? He could be very good.
17. Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints: The beneficiary of the Jimmy Graham trade, in theory. He would have had a big rookie year without the thumb injury.
18. Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills: Future top-10 wide receiver, even in Buffalo. They’ll get a QB at some point.
Tier 5: Fifth round
19. Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles: Solid as a rookie, he’s in the right place to really break out. Will be interesting to see where he lines up.
20. Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers: Obviously I’m expecting Year 3 to be more like Year 1 than Year 2.
21. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers: The lack of touchdowns was a bit fluky. Could easily have been No. 7 or 8. Don’t ignore him.
20. Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers: Obviously I’m expecting Year 3 to be more like Year 1 than Year 2.
21. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers: The lack of touchdowns was a bit fluky. Could easily have been No. 7 or 8. Don’t ignore him.
Tier 6: Sixth round
22. Andre Johnson, Colts: Don’t listen to those who tell you he’s too old. He’s reborn with Luck at QB.
23. Brandon Marshall, New York Jets: He’s not too old either, but he sure doesn’t have Luck at QB. Just remember how talented he is.
24. Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders: I happen to believe Derek Carr can be a usable quarterback, actually. Cooper is just a wonderful talent.
25. DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins: Finds a way to make big plays, but as expected, couldn’t come close to the 82 receptions from his walk year in Philly. Can’t do that in D.C.
23. Brandon Marshall, New York Jets: He’s not too old either, but he sure doesn’t have Luck at QB. Just remember how talented he is.
24. Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders: I happen to believe Derek Carr can be a usable quarterback, actually. Cooper is just a wonderful talent.
25. DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins: Finds a way to make big plays, but as expected, couldn’t come close to the 82 receptions from his walk year in Philly. Can’t do that in D.C.
Tier 7: Seventh round
26. Kevin White, Bears: Another wonderfully athletic rookie, but let’s not assume last year’s success for first-year wide receivers will be duplicated. Still, White will be busy and productive, if he can overcome his current injury.
27. Mike Wallace, Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater does throw a nice deep ball, and Wallace can still get downfield and catch it.
28. Nelson Agholor, Eagles: I think he’s underrated. Why should we assume his teammate, Matthews, is the No. 1 wide receiver, just because he played last season?
27. Mike Wallace, Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater does throw a nice deep ball, and Wallace can still get downfield and catch it.
28. Nelson Agholor, Eagles: I think he’s underrated. Why should we assume his teammate, Matthews, is the No. 1 wide receiver, just because he played last season?
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