Comedy Platinum out of Toronto - "Canada's Team" quest for the Cup

[Bloody Brian Burke]

After the break, the Leafs' schedule is rather favourable especially considering the road success they're having - games in Dallas, St. Louis, Boston and Brooklyn should be games the Leafs believe they can win with confidence.

Considering that they play those same teams at home in the same span of time swapping the B's for the Sabres, there's no reason to believe the Leafs aren't going to be in a similar position they are in now by the time they put Tobasco in net against his former team on Feb. 15th and get slaughtered.

That game will happen about 2 weeks before the deadline, and the Leafs and Blues brass will have been in the same barn twice between now and then. If this is how things are going, and the Blues are indeed listening on Shattenkirk, there's no reason at all the Leafs shouldn't be trying to get him while they can and signing him long-term. It's worth it - the team has shown no reason to not believe they could win a round or even more in the playoffs this season and moving forward having him gives them a pretty damn good top 4 to go along with a goalie who looks like he's perfectly capable of the workload he's getting.

 

[BGDave]

Any speculation on what it would take to from the Leafs to pry Shattenkirk lose?

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Any speculation on what it would take to from the Leafs to pry Shattenkirk lose?

No idea what STL would be looking for. My guess is they want to be right back in contention next season but they have such a weird roster structure that there isn't one area where they're exceptionally strong or exceptionally weak save goaltending so it's one of those rare circumstances where only the GM really knows what it would take.

Maybe futures would be enough, though, if Armstrong thinks he can move them in the summer for roster pieces but I'm not sure which ones would be enough, even if the Leafs made their 2 second rounders available. Throwing Connor Brown into the mix would probably go a long way too.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Really disappointing to not get a point last night. Just couldn't hold on in the last 7 minutes or so and Tobasco let in a pretty bad one (although he had been solid to that point and was getting shelled).

Hope it doesn't bite too hard. Shitty way to go into the break.

 

[BGDave]

Tobasco let in a pretty bad one (although he had been solid to that point and was getting shelled)

True. Would have like to see more than 1 goal on Michael SuperSieve Neuvirth, though.

Oh well, its a long season and games like that are bound to happen. Even the Caps lose once in a while, I have heard.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Leafs basically play every two days from here on out so this at least mitigates that somewhat:

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Leafs basically play every two days from here on out so this at least mitigates that somewhat:

Below 50% = TOUGHER???

I don't think that's right.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Below 50% = TOUGHER???

I don't think that's right.

Ohkay, I didn't see that. I just assumed the way I'm guessing you're inferring.

That's...puzzling?

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Ohkay, I didn't see that. I just assumed the way I'm guessing you're inferring.

That's...puzzling?

Yeah. I haven't looked at Toronto's schedule but I know Ottawa's gets WAAAYY easier from here on out. I think the numbers are right but that caption is just wrong.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Yeah. I haven't looked at Toronto's schedule but I know Ottawa's gets WAAAYY easier from here on out. I think the numbers are right but that caption is just wrong.

Nope, the caption is kind of confusing but correct. Boston has the easiest schedule the rest of the way. Side benefit of having played the most games so far.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Nope, the caption is kind of confusing but correct. Boston has the easiest schedule the rest of the way. Side benefit of having played the most games so far.

The article is protected so I can't see what they did here. Or even what I'm looking at exactly. Makes it hard to comment on it really. But just to use Ottawa as an example, they have 35 games remaining; 13 of out of those 35 games are against teams in playoff spot today. They also play tired teams (playing back to back when Ottawa is rested) 6 times vs only twice when they are the "tired" team.

That graphic would suggest that they have the second hardest remaining schedule. I find that incredibly hard to believe.

 

[DragonfromTO]

The article is protected so I can't see what they did here. Or even what I'm looking at exactly. Makes it hard to comment on it really. But just to use Ottawa as an example, they have 35 games remaining; 13 of out of those 35 games are against teams in playoff spot today. They also play tired teams (playing back to back when Ottawa is rested) 6 times vs only twice when they are the "tired" team.

That graphic would suggest that they have the second hardest remaining schedule. I find that incredibly hard to believe.

I suspect that if you're looking at wins and losses to determine opponent quality you're using a different method than they are, but I also suspect that you already realize this. I'll take a look at the specifics of Ottawa's schedule in the next few days and see if I can figure something out. I'm guessing that a lot of those games against non-playoff teams are against teams that have underachieved/been "unlucky" so far. How many times do they play the Bruins?

 

[BGDave]

As we roll into the "second half" of the season, a question comes to mind.

Why is Marner not getting any love for the Calder? All the talk down here is Matthews or Laine, with a little Werenski thrown in.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

As we roll into the "second half" of the season, a question comes to mind.

Why is Marner not getting any love for the Calder? All the talk down here is Matthews or Laine, with a little Werenski thrown in.

He is up here - guy's tied with Matthews in scoring behind Laine (who gets my vote thus far).

I think Werenski's fallen behind somewhat - he's only scored 13 pts since November ended. He's still playing well but Seth Jones is emerging as the blue liner driving the offence there (as he should given his age and experience).

 

[KennyBanyeah]

I suspect that if you're looking at wins and losses to determine opponent quality you're using a different method than they are, but I also suspect that you already realize this. I'll take a look at the specifics of Ottawa's schedule in the next few days and see if I can figure something out. I'm guessing that a lot of those games against non-playoff teams are against teams that have underachieved/been "unlucky" so far. How many times do they play the Bruins?

Well it IS titled average win percentage against.

So you think they're saying Ottawa and Toronto have the tougher schedules because they play teams with high Corsi? Or Fenwick? Hard to tell really.

For what it's worth, Toronto plays 17 games against teams currently in a playoff spot.

 

[DragonfromTO]

He is up here - guy's tied with Matthews in scoring behind Laine (who gets my vote thus far).

I think Werenski's fallen behind somewhat - he's only scored 13 pts since November ended. He's still playing well but Seth Jones is emerging as the blue liner driving the offence there (as he should given his age and experience).

It's been real tough sledding for Laine, playing on the Jets' top line with their two best forwards all season long

Auston's got my vote right now. If he were playing with offensive guys like Laine and Marner are (and I haven't looked recently but I believe Marner's shifts still look pretty sheltered too) the raw point total would probably reflect this better.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

It's been real tough sledding for Laine, playing on the Jets' top line with their two best forwards all season long

Auston's got my vote right now. If he were playing with offensive guys like Laine and Marner are (and I haven't looked recently but I believe Marner's shifts still look pretty sheltered too) the raw point total would probably reflect this better.

Nylander's not offensive? Because the guy sure as shit can't defend so what's he doing up there?

 

[DragonfromTO]

Well it IS titled average win percentage against.

So you think they're saying Ottawa and Toronto have the tougher schedules because they play teams with high Corsi? Or Fenwick? Hard to tell really.

For what it's worth, Toronto plays 17 games against teams currently in a playoff spot.

I may be interpreting this wrong but I believe that "average win percentage against" means that it is the win percentage that an average team would have playing that particular team's remaining schedule. Which is why lower is harder and higher is easier.

The reason that I asked about Boston specifically is that they're probably one of the teams that bugs it. W-L record says they're not a playoff team, but just a little digging under at the surface suggests they might actually have been better than that (top shot differential in the NHL and second worst PDO, for instance).

 

[BGDave]

Thanks for the comments and perspectives.

Me, I would still give the nod to Matthews. Old school stats are pretty even as you have noted, but Matthews certainly has the weakest linemates by a mile, errr, kilometer, errr, kilometre

 

[KennyBanyeah]

I may be interpreting this wrong but I believe that "average win percentage against" means that it is the win percentage that an average team would have playing that particular team's remaining schedule. Which is why lower is harder and higher is easier.

The reason that I asked about Boston specifically is that they're probably one of the teams that bugs it. W-L record says they're not a playoff team, but just a little digging under at the surface suggests they might actually have been better than that (top shot differential in the NHL and second worst PDO, for instance).

Hmm. I suppose they could be doing that. I'm playing with some numbers right now just for fun.

Boston, to me, seems like a poster boy for anti-stats guys. I watch that team play and they look like garbage to me. Get their shots from the outside; can't defend a lead; blow assignments. Tuukka Rask looks great, and has to for them to win. Yet their CF% is dynamite.

For what it's worth I'm pretty much completely off of the Corsi/Fenwick train. They were a good place to start but there is serious refinement needed. I don't find them useful anymore. Or maybe this season is just a complete anomaly.