Sunday Night Football: Colts at Chiefs 820 PM/NBC

[Montalban]

Are you suggesting that the Ravens gave up on the run?

Oh yes. They are the prime example in fact. They kept trying to throw the ball down the field and failed miserably

 

[Clayton]

Yeah, but it has to be getting old.

Totally new DEF regime, but the results are not changing. The Colts basically played keep away from Mahomes and in this copycat league, that's something to keep an eye on as this season continues...you know BB is stashing tape away.

Oh, it is getting old. The Chiefs basically spent two whole offseasons only focusing on defense and the only thing that offensive move they made was Hardman and that likely had to do with the Hill situation.

Next man up is a relative term. When Hill goes down and Watkins is next man up then the Chiefs can still run their high flying offense. When Watkins goes down and you're relying on Robinson and Pringles then its an issue. Likewise, if your next man up at Left Tackle is Cam Erving then you're in trouble.

If the Chiefs are 5-3 or 6-2 at the midway point then I'll take that. Try and get healthy for the back half. Usually Chiefs fans are used to waiting on Justin Houston and Eric Berry to get healthy and now so its just a different kind of waiting game unless something happens to Mahomes....then its time to pack it in.

Footballoutsiders has an 'odds to win the Super Bowl' and New England is at 40% and no other team is at 10%. There really isn't a #2 team right now.

 

[Clayton]

Oh yes. They are the prime example in fact. They kept trying to throw the ball down the field and failed miserably

Prime example? They had over 200 yds rushing and 4 rushing TDs.

stop trolling

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Thing is, the Colts only scored 19 points doing so and were not especially good at all in the process. If the copycat league has something to put a team that just had a record for most games with 25+ points to frequently under that mark, there's a better discussion to be had, but I got to be pretty incredulous here based on what I saw on that front.

Not sure there's anything to read into here besides this being an outlier to this point (outside of the race for HFA, then point taken)

The Colts didn't have the air game to finish the drives off, so they settled for FGs, but because this (run DEF) seemingly has been a problem that has followed the Chiefs for several years and now multiple DCs...I don't think it should be glossed over. OFC...when it's going great, it can be incredible as Mahomes is one of the best arm talents in the league regardless of age, but there will be more games like last night. They will score more than 13 likely, but the clip they were on thru 4 weeks might not sustain when the calendar turns to NOV and DEC.

 

[Myles]

Thing is, the Colts only scored 19 points doing so and were not especially good at all in the process.

I thought they looked great in it. They played possession ball almost flawless.

 

[Myles]

Oh, it is getting old. The Chiefs basically spent two whole offseasons only focusing on defense and the only thing that offensive move they made was Hardman and that likely had to do with the Hill situation.

Next man up is a relative term. When Hill goes down and Watkins is next man up then the Chiefs can still run their high flying offense. When Watkins goes down and you're relying on Robinson and Pringles then its an issue. Likewise, if your next man up at Left Tackle is Cam Erving then you're in trouble.

If the Chiefs are 5-3 or 6-2 at the midway point then I'll take that. Try and get healthy for the back half. Usually Chiefs fans are used to waiting on Justin Houston and Eric Berry to get healthy and now so its just a different kind of waiting game unless something happens to Mahomes....then its time to pack it in.

Footballoutsiders has an 'odds to win the Super Bowl' and New England is at 40% and no other team is at 10%. There really isn't a #2 team right now.

KC is still #2 in the league.
Go get those Texans will you.

 

[Roy Munson]

Appreciate the argument, but disagree.

I'd say if you have to cut off your hand in terms of EPA to accomplish this (not at all clear you can) then you're really stretching the value of such a strategy to the point where it's very difficult for me to put stock into it, at least as far as the NFL is concerned. Chip Kelly is a failed NFL coach for a myriad of reasons- this strategy being one of them.

The site you posted negates the parts of the game that are specifically what TOP and ball control are aimed at... THE END.

I excluded the first drives of each half (defenses are well-rested for those drives), drives beginning in the last four minutes of the game (when teams are substantially less likely to score due to the clock being a factor), and sample sizes with fewer than 10 drives.

The point isn't always scoring points or not letting them score on your D. It could be about just sustaining your drives a few minutes longer to run out the clock.

From the other perspective, if I ball control, I'm also running fewer plays as an offense, so I'm not inherently wearing down your defense any more than I would running plays normally unless I'm able to sustain those drives and keep you on the field.

 

[dbldwn711]

The site you posted negates the parts of the game that are specifically what TOP and ball control are aimed at... THE END.



The point isn't always scoring points or not letting them score on your D. It could be about just sustaining your drives a few minutes longer to run out the clock.

From the other perspective, if I ball control, I'm also running fewer plays as an offense, so I'm not inherently wearing down your defense any more than I would running plays normally unless I'm able to sustain those drives and keep you on the field.

You’re right... it’s not always about scoring.

Let’s say the other team pins you deep on your side of the field and you start a drive at your own 2 yard line. That’s a dangerous position to be in... for a variety of reasons. Let’s say you are able to get the ball out to midfield but then your drive stalls and you punt the ball away and put your opponent inside their own 20 yard line. According to the articles logic that drive wasn’t “successful” because it didn’t result in points but the reality is it flipped the field and may have been a very important drive.

Analytics have a place in sports but you can’t judge sports solely on analytics. Besides, the one he’s citing is dumb. I don’t need an economist with a fancy formula to tell me the more points an offense scores the more likely they are to win. There’s much more to it than that.

This study standing alone is pointless. Wanna have it make sense? Show me a study that says TOP does NOT increase your chances of winning. Show me a study that says when you control the clock significantly more than your opponent that does not lead to a higher probability of winning.

 

[Myles]

You’re right... it’s not always about scoring.

Let’s say the other team pins you deep on your side of the field and you start a drive at your own 2 yard line. That’s a dangerous position to be in... for a variety of reasons. Let’s say you are able to get the ball out to midfield but then your drive stalls and you punt the ball away and put your opponent inside their own 20 yard line. According to the articles logic that drive wasn’t “successful” because it didn’t result in points but the reality is it flipped the field and may have been a very important drive.

Analytics have a place in sports but you can’t judge sports solely on analytics. Besides, the one he’s citing is dumb. I don’t need an economist with a fancy formula to tell me the more points an offense scores the more likely they are to win. There’s much more to it than that.

This study standing alone is pointless. Wanna have it make sense? Show me a study that says TOP does NOT increase your chances of winning. Show me a study that says when you control the clock significantly more than your opponent that does not lead to a higher probability of winning.

I mostly agree. It's not an all telling stat, but it can be very important. It certainly was the reason the Colts won last night. They kept the ball out of Maholmes hands. Kept the clock going with short passes and running the ball.

 

[dbldwn711]

I mostly agree. It's not an all telling stat, but it can be very important. It certainly was the reason the Colts won last night. They kept the ball out of Maholmes hands. Kept the clock going with short passes and running the ball.

Not all teams are built alike. The chiefs strength is their offense. The more times you give them the ball on offense the greater the likelihood they will score because that is their strength. By limiting the number of times their strength touches the ball the greater chance you have of beating them. I understand that this will also limit the number of times your offense touches the ball but that’s the strategy. Of course you’re trying to score but even if you don’t it’s still successful.

In addition, defenses tire out more quickly than offenses. Why? Because defenses have to react which takes more energy. As @Roy Munson said earlier, it’s the hope that this will have a cumulative effect later in the game (ie the 4th quarter) when there is less margin for error.

This is pretty basic stuff.

 

[Clayton]

KC is still #2 in the league.
Go get those Texans will you.

I think they're the #2 when healthy. They aren't that team right now. We're basically the Texans without Fuller. We should probably be slight home underdogs in the next game tbh.

Truth be told, I turned off the Chiefs game at halftime because I was still salty over the STL/ATL game 3. It sounds like a didn't miss much.

 

[CaptainStubing]

They allowed 19 points...

They're free to try this again.

37 minutes the Colts controlled the clock. Chiefs defense couldn't get them off the field. That offensive game plan played out exactly how the Colts drew it up. They did what they set out to do and the chiefs D could do nothing to stop them.

 

[dbldwn711]

I think they're the #2 when healthy. They aren't that team right now. We're basically the Texans without Fuller. We should probably be slight home underdogs in the next game tbh.

Truth be told, I turned off the Chiefs game at halftime because I was still salty over the STL/ATL game 3. It sounds like a didn't miss much.

Haha. Chiefs are not the Texans. Not even close! Chiefs are far an away in the top 2 in the afc. They could easily win the SB. Right now it’s them and the pats and homefield is key.

Don’t sleep on the bills and that D though. 3 straight road wins. Bills problem is they can’t keep up with the scoring that the the pats and chiefs produce. Bills must play an almost perfect game to beat either of those teams. They can, but it’s not likely.

 

[dbldwn711]

“Wearing the opposing team down is a myth! My economist friend told me.”

- unidentified SH poster

 

[Fountain City Blues]

37 minutes the Colts controlled the clock. Chiefs defense couldn't get them off the field. That offensive game plan played out exactly how the Colts drew it up. They did what they set out to do and the chiefs D could do nothing to stop them.

The Chiefs defense allowed 4.47 yards per play man... The YPC was 4.0. That'd be a bottom 3 number in 2018 for an offense.

Those are horrible numbers for an offense which doesn't even include the interception. Would be a bottom 3 offense almost guaranteed if that was a full season mark.

Not completely dead if the defense... commits penalties, but it's a bit rich when the possession dent is 1 (Ok, 1.25 or something along those lines) below the season the average. TOP has very little to do with the outcome. It's not a sustainable strategy, though the higher variance with 1 less possession does help an underdog a tad bit, admittedly.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Haha. Chiefs are not the Texans. Not even close! Chiefs are far an away in the top 2 in the afc. They could easily win the SB. Right now it’s them and the pats and homefield is key.

Don’t sleep on the bills and that D though. 3 straight road wins. Bills problem is they can’t keep up with the scoring that the the pats and chiefs produce. Bills must play an almost perfect game to beat either of those teams. They can, but it’s not likely.

Selling all the way on the Bills as a SB contender. They're Bears East. Josh Allen is a future backup if he doesn't get himself seriously hurt first. They can probably make the postseason though.

 

[Clayton]

Haha. Chiefs are not the Texans. Not even close! Chiefs are far an away in the top 2 in the afc. They could easily win the SB. Right now it’s them and the pats and homefield is key.

The Chiefs are cruising for 10-6 or 11-5 imo. Pats are probably closer to 14-2.

Chiefs have forced 4 turnovers within their own red zone this year and had some timely stops on defense against the Ravens and Lions. They could very easily be something like 2-3 right now. 4-1 with a banged up team and a defense with a lot of new players? Yeah, I'll take that.

 

[dbldwn711]

Selling all the way on the Bills as a SB contender. They're Bears East. Josh Allen is a future backup if he doesn't get himself seriously hurt first. They can probably make the postseason though.

They are clearly a cut below but that d is legit

 

[Rex Racer]

That's not backed really by data, it's a meme. Pretty rare to achieve that, nor is it a sustainable strategy.

Running the ball doesn't really control the clock like long drives do- in fact, it's arguably worse because they are generally negative EPA.

The Colts scored 19 points.

The Chiefs offense sucked, and the Colts played a part in that.

Even still, rushing success is so circumstantial, RB's should get very little credit.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

They are clearly a cut below but that d is legit

D is the only reason they won't be picking top 3 or 5 along with the Phins this year. Josh is just not it as a QB.