Castillo to the Mariners for 4 Prospects

[ulmax]

Houston..is 1and 2..in the series

Went to playoffs..2015
2016...no
2017..series winner
.2018..lost AL champ series
2019 series..Lost.to nationals
2020..lost to Tampa AL champ series
2021..lost series...to..atlanta..

I have seen enough..of that...and they
ate going down..maybe not far..
Before going back up...

It's my guess..they will lose bregman
.to the dodgers..
Brantly..is getting old at 39.
Verlander as well...although I think he has more.
.in the tank...but if he is a free agent..
Other playoff teams will be after him

Like boston...
...

 

[WizardHawk]

.they should..all in..in the offseason

They should, but I have zero faith that Dipoto suddenly shifts from his longtime formulas. We are more likely to get the mid level moves he always does on position players. They do go after pitching, but he drastically over values his minor league picks and flat out refuses to move on from them until well after they no longer have any trade value.

 

[seahawksfan234]

They should, but I have zero faith that Dipoto suddenly shifts from his longtime formulas. We are more likely to get the mid level moves he always does on position players. They do go after pitching, but he drastically over values his minor league picks and flat out refuses to move on from them until well after they no longer have any trade value.

Divish wrote this and I found it pretty telling:

"When the news broke that Soto turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract and the Nationals were shopping him for a potential trade, Dipoto put a package of players together that featured Marte and Arroyo. Seattle was willing to part with Jarred Kelenic and Emerson Hancock in deals, per sources. Other names like Matt Brash and catcher Harry Ford were also rumored.

A package of Kelenic, Hancock, Brash, Marte and Arroyo doesn’t get it done. The Mariners lacked that marquee top 10 prospect who was big-league ready like Kelenic once was in their system.

Dipoto recognized early they weren’t in that range and refocused on Castillo.

It speaks to how far Kelenic’s stock as a prospect has fallen over the last season and a half. His struggles at the MLB level have diminished his value significantly, regardless of the numbers he was putting up at Class AAA Tacoma. While Kelenic just turned 23, the concerns about his ability to recognize and hit MLB breaking pitches, an indifferent two-strike approach and a stubbornness to sell out for power still permeate in MLB scouting circles.

Said an NL scout: “His swing angles are likely to continue to expose him at the MLB level.”

An AL scout labeled his swing “robotic” and his approach “broken.” Kelenic has another six days to prove scouts and the Mariners wrong until Julio Rodriguez returns from the injured list."

I joked that Kelenic would be shipped for a rental reliever, and given these comments I think we might've actually been better off receiving that for him...

 

[NWinAZ]

Divish wrote this and I found it pretty telling:

"When the news broke that Soto turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract and the Nationals were shopping him for a potential trade, Dipoto put a package of players together that featured Marte and Arroyo. Seattle was willing to part with Jarred Kelenic and Emerson Hancock in deals, per sources. Other names like Matt Brash and catcher Harry Ford were also rumored.

A package of Kelenic, Hancock, Brash, Marte and Arroyo doesn’t get it done. The Mariners lacked that marquee top 10 prospect who was big-league ready like Kelenic once was in their system.

Dipoto recognized early they weren’t in that range and refocused on Castillo.

It speaks to how far Kelenic’s stock as a prospect has fallen over the last season and a half. His struggles at the MLB level have diminished his value significantly, regardless of the numbers he was putting up at Class AAA Tacoma. While Kelenic just turned 23, the concerns about his ability to recognize and hit MLB breaking pitches, an indifferent two-strike approach and a stubbornness to sell out for power still permeate in MLB scouting circles.

Said an NL scout: “His swing angles are likely to continue to expose him at the MLB level.”

An AL scout labeled his swing “robotic” and his approach “broken.” Kelenic has another six days to prove scouts and the Mariners wrong until Julio Rodriguez returns from the injured list."

I joked that Kelenic would be shipped for a rental reliever, and given these comments I think we might've actually been better off receiving that for him...

The one saving grace with Kelenic is that even if he fails the whole trade was about dumping Cano and his $$$ so Kelenic was just a bonus baby in my eyes. Yes it would be nice to see that bonus come through, but it isn't as big of a fail as missing out on a Top 5 draft pick IMO.

Good post though. Interesting to read the ins and outs. Regarding the Soto stuff, it once again shows how these prospect rating crap is just crap and should never be relied on as a team builder. They are bonus babies as I have always said.

 

[wazzu31]

I agree and so do many who follow the team. Careful though, we have folks up here that get quite angry if you don't call the pickup of Castillo such a blockbuster that nothing else was necessary.

Someone has said that? I guess I have followed post for post just talking with @seahawksfan234 I just know a few of my posts have come off like Castillo is worthless because of my disappointment of the overall deadline and that’s not what I mean. Castillo was an absolute great get for Jerry. But it still is disappointing that Kyle Lewis and Haniger are the big deadline bats they got. Crap though with how Haggerty has been hitting he could be perceived as a nice pickup.

 

[wazzu31]

Furness had a pro scout on that said they wanted Julio and Gilbert as well as a couple of prospects. You can claim there was a deal to be made, but you don't know what their asking price was.

They 100% were not getting him. And I'm fine with it.

They for sure could have picked up a quality hitter that wouldn't have cost as much.

Relying on Haniger and Lewis is a bad idea. This is why Dipoto hasn't had postseason success.

See this is the weird thing because Puck and Jim had a guy saying the deal they gave up for Castillo is what it would take to get Soto. And it essentially did if you take out players to get Bell. I mean it is an oh well but the Nats didn’t get Julio or Gilbert so it would be weird that would be a sticking point.

 

[wazzu31]

The one saving grace with Kelenic is that even if he fails the whole trade was about dumping Cano and his $$$ so Kelenic was just a bonus baby in my eyes. Yes it would be nice to see that bonus come through, but it isn't as big of a fail as missing out on a Top 5 draft pick IMO.

Good post though. Interesting to read the ins and outs. Regarding the Soto stuff, it once again shows how these prospect rating crap is just crap and should never be relied on as a team builder. They are bonus babies as I have always said.

Kelenic needs to just choose a frickin stance. He had one that he was hitting off speed pitches semi decently but then didn’t have any pop when turning on an inside pitch. I will money on it he will be better than Wood once Jared mentally quit putting it in his head his MLB stat line is going to be his AAA stat line.

 

[Podunkparte]

Someone has said that?

Nope.

 

[seattlefan75]

Man it is crazy to me that Kelenic was offered a similar deal to Evan White and turned it down because he thought he was going to get more paving his own way. It was said he was kept in the minors due to service time manipulation it turns out that fool really needed the work. When we had all this minor league talent regardless of what expectations were it was a given there were going to be busts. I didnt think Kelenic would be great I thought of him as a hitter that would be ok/good across the stat line but not great at anything. With him being a bust it seems Dipoto actually lost out on the trade with the Mets after having one of the best closers in baseball coming off an iconic season in Diaz.

 

[seattlefan75]

With that I would rather have our pitchers make it in the league than hitters I think it is harder and more expensive to acquire pitching talent than hitting. Gilbert looks great and Kirby has been looking good this season. If Emerson Hancock turns into a stud along with Castillo and Ray pretty much every game we are in it to keep the game close and win.

 

[WizardHawk]

Someone has said that? I guess I have followed post for post just talking with @seahawksfan234 I just know a few of my posts have come off like Castillo is worthless because of my disappointment of the overall deadline and that’s not what I mean. Castillo was an absolute great get for Jerry. But it still is disappointing that Kyle Lewis and Haniger are the big deadline bats they got. Crap though with how Haggerty has been hitting he could be perceived as a nice pickup.

I said it felt more like a move for next year and expressed my disappointment they didn't also add a bat. Podunk went on a tirade about it. The GM knows more than we do!

I didn't think they did enough in the off season and I don't think they did enough at the deadline. That doesn't mean I don't think they did anything, I just feel they could have done more.

Will they still find a way into the playoffs? Decent chance they will, but their odds would have been higher and their seed possibilities higher with more batting depth, and the odds they get past the first round also improves.

I think most agree, but we have some that feel like they are suffering a bit of Stockholm syndrome or something.

 

[NWinAZ]

When the Top Prospect System Ranking ends, and a huge leap is not seen. Here we are and going into next season with a GM who can't play the free agent game very well and has lost most of his main trade chips. Enjoy this season, but I don't see the ramp up to a steady incline to yearly contender as some had thought. The problem with building with prospects is they rarely live up to expectations and it takes several to gain a veteran in a trade like Castillo depleting the list very quickly. I still don't mind this deal even though I think Arroyo may be a future stud. So with all my normal bitching on this subject said again, here is what ESPN+ has us at,

25. Seattle Mariners - $108 million***

Preseason Value - $271 million (6th)

While Preller will Preller, Jerry will also Jerry! GM Jerry Dipoto cashed in a lot of prospect capital in the Luis Castillo deal (Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Levi Stoudt, Andrew Moore) after graduating some very notable talent earlier in the year (Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby), along with early-season trades that cost Wyatt Mills (to get Carlos Santana) and Connor Phillips (to finish the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez deal). I like what the Mariners did in the draft with SS Cole Young, 3B Tyler Locklear and RHP Walter Ford all now in the team's Top 10.

***For reference, the dollar values are based on a study by FanGraphs that took the expected big league output on average by each tier of prospect, converted that to dollars using teams' free agency spending history, and then subtracted the projected salary they would be paid in the big leagues to yield a surplus value, aka how much a team would pay to acquire the player's six-plus years of control before free agency.

Since the dollar values are lower than you'd think at the bottom of the lists ($1 million or less) and higher than you'd guess at the top (the No. 1 prospect in baseball, Mets C Francisco Alvarez, is worth $112 million), I've stuck to mostly referencing players who are closer to the top of the list as they'll have the most impact on where each team ranks.

 

[seahawksfan234]

The one saving grace with Kelenic is that even if he fails the whole trade was about dumping Cano and his $$$ so Kelenic was just a bonus baby in my eyes. Yes it would be nice to see that bonus come through, but it isn't as big of a fail as missing out on a Top 5 draft pick IMO.

Good post though. Interesting to read the ins and outs. Regarding the Soto stuff, it once again shows how these prospect rating crap is just crap and should never be relied on as a team builder. They are bonus babies as I have always said.

Even if Kelenic becomes nothing - which it looks like that's the case - the trade is still a wash because we unloaded Cano in the trade. I've reached the point where I'm labeling Kelenic a bust, and if I'm wrong so be it.

Kelenic's swing is so beautiful when he makes contact, but he makes contact too infrequently. I can see why both the Mariners and Mets fell in love with him, but I hate to say that I don't think there is anything he can do to improve.

I agree to a certain extend with the prospect ratings. I think they are useful to a certain extent, but we should look at it more as lottery tickets. Some have better odds than others, but you can still win the jackpot either way. Prior to Julio, Kelenic was the most hyped prospect for us since Felix. Dustin Ackley's up there, but at least Dustin Ackley had a career .243 BA with the Mariners.

 

[NWinAZ]

I agree to a certain extend with the prospect ratings. I think they are useful to a certain extent,

I rad something yesterday that said baseball people think those rating sites are a joke and that theirs are so different. The used the example of one of the Padres that went to the Nationals in the Soto trade. He was lower rated by these sites yet baseball teams had hi Top 10 in all of baseball.

 

[NWinAZ]

When the Top Prospect System Ranking ends, and a huge leap is not seen. Here we are and going into next season with a GM who can't play the free agent game very well and has lost most of his main trade chips. Enjoy this season, but I don't see the ramp up to a steady incline to yearly contender as some had thought. The problem with building with prospects is they rarely live up to expectations and it takes several to gain a veteran in a trade like Castillo depleting the list very quickly. I still don't mind this deal even though I think Arroyo may be a future stud. So with all my normal bitching on this subject said again, here is what ESPN+ has us at,

25. Seattle Mariners - $108 million***

Preseason Value - $271 million (6th)

While Preller will Preller, Jerry will also Jerry! GM Jerry Dipoto cashed in a lot of prospect capital in the Luis Castillo deal (Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Levi Stoudt, Andrew Moore) after graduating some very notable talent earlier in the year (Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby), along with early-season trades that cost Wyatt Mills (to get Carlos Santana) and Connor Phillips (to finish the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez deal). I like what the Mariners did in the draft with SS Cole Young, 3B Tyler Locklear and RHP Walter Ford all now in the team's Top 10.

***For reference, the dollar values are based on a study by FanGraphs that took the expected big league output on average by each tier of prospect, converted that to dollars using teams' free agency spending history, and then subtracted the projected salary they would be paid in the big leagues to yield a surplus value, aka how much a team would pay to acquire the player's six-plus years of control before free agency.

Since the dollar values are lower than you'd think at the bottom of the lists ($1 million or less) and higher than you'd guess at the top (the No. 1 prospect in baseball, Mets C Francisco Alvarez, is worth $112 million), I've stuck to mostly referencing players who are closer to the top of the list as they'll have the most impact on where each team ranks.

Another Prospect List:

 

[Podunkparte]

I said it felt more like a move for next year and expressed my disappointment they didn't also add a bat. Podunk went on a tirade about it. The GM knows more than we do!

Is that what you said? Let's pull the receipts.

I didn't think they did enough in the off season and I don't think they did enough at the deadline. That doesn't mean I don't think they did anything, I just feel they could have done more.

You say this now. Let's take a look at what was actually said then.

Not shocked Dipoto didn't make a splash. I guess they will be content with barely sneaking in and getting knocked out without having any home games for the fans.

"Didn't make a splash." The entire time I've simply stated that they did, in fact, make a splash, and quite a large one. I'm sorry if you meant something else, but the words you wrote told a different story.

You want to say silly shit like I have Stockholm syndrome, when guys like you can't keep from bitching and moaning in the midst of our best season in decades. Take a look in the mirror for someone who's stuck in an alternate reality.

Only in Seattle can a GM trade 3 of the top 5 prospects for the best pitcher available, taking him away from teams like the Yankees and Astros, and people wonder why he didn't make a splash.

Sure sucks that Luis Castillo's games don't count this year, you know, since adding him doesn't help us get the playoffs in 2022.

Unbelievable.

 

[Podunkparte]

Will they still find a way into the playoffs? Decent chance they will, but their odds would have been higher and their seed possibilities higher with more batting depth, and the odds they get past the first round also improves.

And this is nonsense. Their odds and seed possibilities would have been higher with someone like Brandon Drury (we weren't getting Soto, so don't embarrass yourself suggesting that's who you meant) than Luis Castillo? How do our seed possibilities get better than being 1.5 games out of the top spot? We aren't catching the Astros with either move.

And no, that bat upgrade absolutely does not improve the chances of winning a 3 game series more than adding an ace. Starting pitching has so much more impact on a short playoff series than a .250 hitter does. Castillo - Ray - Gilbert is a potentially dominant trio, and you just need 2.

Now quit playing the victim and...

 

[Podunkparte]

Prospect talk: The M's are expected to sign SS Felnin Celesten when they're able to around January. The kid is supposed to be an absolute stud, and one who will stick at SS, unlike Noelvi. Plenty of prospect vids around the internet if you want to take a look.

 

[WizardHawk]

Holy shit someone get podunk a tampon already....

If they are giving up that much of the farm for him, there is basically zero chance they were also going after Soto or Ohtani.

I'm fine if they pickup a mid level bat as well, but they can't just add one arm. Yes, it's an outstanding arm and one that bodes well for more than this year.

From that Larry Stone piece I linked earlier...



Of course Larry also pointed out they MUST improve their hitting as well.

Does anyone think Hani and possibly Kelenic alone provide enough to never see Toro again in a meaningful game the rest of the way?

Well yeah, that was the point. They will pickup something closer to Santana kind of move again than a big bopper.

I don't trust either Hani nor Lewis to still be playing at season's end. It's just their story. Kelenic could come back up better and add something if he's not actually traded by Tue. Again, not a big upgrade, but could add some pop over the lessor options on this pathetic bench.

I'm happy they picked up Castillo. Did they pay too much? Probably, but I'd rather that than not get the pieces we need to setup for going after more than a WC this year, but getting the club in position to contend for the division next year.

They still have work to do for both goals. I don't know if I would give up the farm for Soto or Ohtani after this deal. They need farm depth to sustain mid/ long-term winning and either of those alone is probably not enough to contend for the WS this year. If they were, then do it.

They need at least a .270+ hitter to add for this WC run. I'd be OK with that, particularly if we could shed Toro or one of our other anchors, but maybe in greedy.

^^^ I had this conversation with YOU about the f'n trade ON FRIDAY. Here, since reading doesn't seem your thing I'll post some of the more important bits you can't seem to grasp.

Yes, it's an outstanding arm and one that bodes well for more than this year.

I'm happy they picked up Castillo. Did they pay too much? Probably, but I'd rather that than not get the pieces we need to setup for going after more than a WC this year, but getting the club in position to contend for the division next year.

This was actually directly with YOU, so all the BS you attempted to post above as if that's all I said just shows you are only interested in attempting to put words in mouths you CLEARLY know are false.

I said it was a good pickup and completed half of what we wanted/needed. I then on the trade deadline day FOUR DAYS LATER said they failed to make a splash. You really have to be daft to not understand the context. THEY FAILED TO ADD A BAT ON THAT DAY. No one in their right mind would take that statement to mean they also didn't make a splace FOUR DAYS EARLIER.

Every other team we are facing in the race to the playoffs added more than one piece. All of them. We added one great piece AND I CLEARLY SAID THAT DIRECTLY TO YOU, but failed to get the bat we needed.

We had to watch .127 in the batting lineup again tonight. Show me a contender also running out .127 at this point in the season? WE NEED BATS ffs and pretty much everyone agrees with that.



For God sake man, plug up your bleeder and move on.

 

[WizardHawk]

And this is nonsense. Their odds and seed possibilities would have been higher with someone like Brandon Drury (we weren't getting Soto, so don't embarrass yourself suggesting that's who you meant) than Luis Castillo? How do our seed possibilities get better than being 1.5 games out of the top spot? We aren't catching the Astros with either move.

And no, that bat upgrade absolutely does not improve the chances of winning a 3 game series more than adding an ace. Starting pitching has so much more impact on a short playoff series than a .250 hitter does. Castillo - Ray - Gilbert is a potentially dominant trio, and you just need 2.

Now quit playing the victim and...

This just proves you are angry for no reason and just plain trolling. Not once anywhere did anyone on this entire site claim they should have taken a bat INSTEAD of Castillo. And I can show you the quotes of where I said we were never going to get Soto or Ohtani if you'd like more embarrassments, but is that necessary?

You claiming that even Drury isn't an upgrade to .127 Kelenic who actually made us wish .177 Toro was back on the bench last night....

They are struggling badly at the plate. Should we show you the numbers compared to pretty much every other team considered in contention? They can't stay healthy!

Right now we have Jrod out and latest reports were he had issues batting in the cage and is out now until at least Friday. Winker is out with back spasms. Lewis looks worse now than Edgar did in his final seasons ffs. His body isn't fully right.

Are you ready to let this absolute bullshit go yet? You could just enjoy a win and not be a dick about it. People understand bitching after a loss, but this tonight was a historic win and one of the best games we have seen in years. Why on earth is there a need to create drama after a win?