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Biggest roster weaknesses for Dolphins, Patriots, Bills, Jets - NFL
By Andrew Healy
Buffalo Bills
Biggest post-draft weakness: Quarterback
In five seasons with the Jets, Rex Ryan never had a quarterback who ranked higher than 28th according to Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. (DVOA, or defense-adjusted value over average, is explained further here.) Now he comes to a team with a third-year quarterback (EJ Manuel) who ranked 37th and 38th in his first two seasons, and a veteran quarterback (Matt Cassel) who has been just as bad in four of his past six seasons. Regardless of how much blame Ryan deserves for Mark Sanchez's failure to develop in New York, he has even less to work with at the position right now in Buffalo.
Ryan's Bills mirror recent Buffalo teams, just in a more exaggerated way. During the Bills' 15-year playoff drought, they have had many good defenses; seven times, they have had a top-10 defense by DVOA. But never during that stretch have they had a top-10 offense, and their quarterbacks have been the worst in the NFL. Since 2001, the Bills have had no quarterback rank better than 20th in DVOA.
In 2014, the Bills' quarterback weakness kept the league's second-best defense (by DVOA) out of the playoffs. This year, the Bills actually have an even bigger hole at quarterback. For most of 2014, the Bills started a quarterback in Kyle Orton who averaged being the 22nd-best quarterback in the NFL by DVOA over his last five seasons with at least 100 attempts. By comparison, Cassel has been the 30th-best quarterback over his last five qualifying seasons, and Manuel has been even worse so far in his short career. The Bills' quarterback situation gives the rest of the team little margin for error in 2015.
Miami Dolphins
Biggest post-draft weakness: Cornerback
Top corner Brent Grimes may already be in decline. In 2013, Miami ranked seventh in the NFL against opponents' top receivers. Last season, Miami fell to 21st in that category as part of the Dolphins' second-half defensive swoon. Improvement in 2015 is unlikely. Grimes will turn 32 in July, an age past which very few corners sustain a high level of play. It is certainly in play for Grimes to have his falling-off-a-cliff season. It has happened somewhere around his age for almost every cornerback not named Darrell Green. While the Dolphins have been in decent shape at the top corner position with Grimes in recent seasons, they may be in trouble as early as this season.
Of even greater concern for the Dolphins is depth at corner. Getting little from 2013 second-rounder Jamar Taylor and 2014 fourth-rounder Walt Aikens, the Dolphins ranked 30th in the league last year against opponents' third, fourth, and fifth wideouts. Entering the offseason with just Grimes, Taylor and Aikens on the cornerback depth chart, Miami has taken two paths to try to address its weaknesses.
First, they dipped at the low end of the free-agent market, signing Brice McCain and Zack Bowman. Neither player is particularly young (McCain is 28, Bowman 30), and neither has provided much value above replacement level in recent years. In the draft, they waited until the fifth round to add two corners, Bobby McCain and Tony Lippett (the latter of whom primarily played wide receiver in college). While they have cornered the market for McCains in the NFL (with linebacker Chris, the Dolphins currently have every McCain to play since 1950), the Dolphins have not filled their hole at corner so much as papered it over by acquiring low-level veterans and mid-round picks.
After addressing their receiver weakness with the smart trade for Kenny Stills, the Dolphins might have been better off using their first-round pick to address their hole at corner instead of selecting Louisville WR DeVante Parker. Instead, Miami's pass defense will depend on Grimes holding up for another year and a breakout from one of their unproven players.
New York Jets
Biggest post-draft weakness: Quarterback
All the improvements that the Jets have made this offseason are window dressing until they find a quarterback. Even after just two seasons, the chances that Geno Smith is the guy are small. In those seasons, Smith ranked 40th and 31st, respectively, in DVOA. Over the past 25 years, here are the 10 quarterbacks whose DVOA ratings in their first two seasons with at least 100 attempts came closest to Smith's numbers.
While these and most examples of similar quarterbacks do not look good, there are a couple of counterexamples Jets fans could look to. Troy Aikman struggled his first two seasons even more than Smith, and if we look back before DVOA ratings (which start in 1989), so did Terry Bradshaw. Unlike Smith, however, scouts saw enough potential in Aikman and Bradshaw to make each of them the No. 1 overall pick. Lacking that pedigree, Smith's early-career struggles have been bad enough to make him a very poor bet to break out. Ryan Fitzpatrick does not exactly fill the Jets' hole at quarterback, but he is likely to be the better short-term option.
New England Patriots
Biggest post-draft weakness: Cornerback
After losing Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner in free agency, the Patriots appeared likely to take a corner early in the draft. Instead, perhaps scared off by the ghosts of Ras-I Dowling and Terrence Wheatley, Bill Belichick waited until the seventh round to draft a corner. The Patriots now have Bradley Fletcher, signed from the Eagles in free agency, as their No. 1 cornerback.
If all you know of Fletcher are 2014 lowlights like this and this, then this sounds like an untenable situation. It's not quite as bad as it seems. No cornerback in football gets a bigger boost in his numbers when we account for the opposing receivers he had to face. If we adjust for Fletcher's schedule -- including five games lining up across from Dez Bryant (fifth in receiving DVOA), DeSean Jackson (sixth), and Jordy Nelson (eighth) -- Fletcher actually ranked 36th in adjusted success rate, making Fletcher an above-average corner. He is also an excellent value at the price the Patriots paid for him.
The fact that Fletcher is underrated and came at a bargain rate would make him an excellent No. 2 corner. He's still not a desirable option as your team's top corner. Even adjusting for opposition, the Eagles were still just 24th against opponents' top wideouts in 2014. Perhaps the only other potential choice on the roster is Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler, and then only because his small sample size as a rookie leaves his ceiling undefined. Barring a midseason trade like the one that brought Aqib Talib to Foxborough in 2012, the Patriots will most likely have to scheme around lacking a true top cover corner.
By Andrew Healy
Buffalo Bills
Biggest post-draft weakness: Quarterback
In five seasons with the Jets, Rex Ryan never had a quarterback who ranked higher than 28th according to Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. (DVOA, or defense-adjusted value over average, is explained further here.) Now he comes to a team with a third-year quarterback (EJ Manuel) who ranked 37th and 38th in his first two seasons, and a veteran quarterback (Matt Cassel) who has been just as bad in four of his past six seasons. Regardless of how much blame Ryan deserves for Mark Sanchez's failure to develop in New York, he has even less to work with at the position right now in Buffalo.
Ryan's Bills mirror recent Buffalo teams, just in a more exaggerated way. During the Bills' 15-year playoff drought, they have had many good defenses; seven times, they have had a top-10 defense by DVOA. But never during that stretch have they had a top-10 offense, and their quarterbacks have been the worst in the NFL. Since 2001, the Bills have had no quarterback rank better than 20th in DVOA.
In 2014, the Bills' quarterback weakness kept the league's second-best defense (by DVOA) out of the playoffs. This year, the Bills actually have an even bigger hole at quarterback. For most of 2014, the Bills started a quarterback in Kyle Orton who averaged being the 22nd-best quarterback in the NFL by DVOA over his last five seasons with at least 100 attempts. By comparison, Cassel has been the 30th-best quarterback over his last five qualifying seasons, and Manuel has been even worse so far in his short career. The Bills' quarterback situation gives the rest of the team little margin for error in 2015.
Miami Dolphins
Biggest post-draft weakness: Cornerback
Top corner Brent Grimes may already be in decline. In 2013, Miami ranked seventh in the NFL against opponents' top receivers. Last season, Miami fell to 21st in that category as part of the Dolphins' second-half defensive swoon. Improvement in 2015 is unlikely. Grimes will turn 32 in July, an age past which very few corners sustain a high level of play. It is certainly in play for Grimes to have his falling-off-a-cliff season. It has happened somewhere around his age for almost every cornerback not named Darrell Green. While the Dolphins have been in decent shape at the top corner position with Grimes in recent seasons, they may be in trouble as early as this season.
Of even greater concern for the Dolphins is depth at corner. Getting little from 2013 second-rounder Jamar Taylor and 2014 fourth-rounder Walt Aikens, the Dolphins ranked 30th in the league last year against opponents' third, fourth, and fifth wideouts. Entering the offseason with just Grimes, Taylor and Aikens on the cornerback depth chart, Miami has taken two paths to try to address its weaknesses.
First, they dipped at the low end of the free-agent market, signing Brice McCain and Zack Bowman. Neither player is particularly young (McCain is 28, Bowman 30), and neither has provided much value above replacement level in recent years. In the draft, they waited until the fifth round to add two corners, Bobby McCain and Tony Lippett (the latter of whom primarily played wide receiver in college). While they have cornered the market for McCains in the NFL (with linebacker Chris, the Dolphins currently have every McCain to play since 1950), the Dolphins have not filled their hole at corner so much as papered it over by acquiring low-level veterans and mid-round picks.
After addressing their receiver weakness with the smart trade for Kenny Stills, the Dolphins might have been better off using their first-round pick to address their hole at corner instead of selecting Louisville WR DeVante Parker. Instead, Miami's pass defense will depend on Grimes holding up for another year and a breakout from one of their unproven players.
New York Jets
Biggest post-draft weakness: Quarterback
All the improvements that the Jets have made this offseason are window dressing until they find a quarterback. Even after just two seasons, the chances that Geno Smith is the guy are small. In those seasons, Smith ranked 40th and 31st, respectively, in DVOA. Over the past 25 years, here are the 10 quarterbacks whose DVOA ratings in their first two seasons with at least 100 attempts came closest to Smith's numbers.
While these and most examples of similar quarterbacks do not look good, there are a couple of counterexamples Jets fans could look to. Troy Aikman struggled his first two seasons even more than Smith, and if we look back before DVOA ratings (which start in 1989), so did Terry Bradshaw. Unlike Smith, however, scouts saw enough potential in Aikman and Bradshaw to make each of them the No. 1 overall pick. Lacking that pedigree, Smith's early-career struggles have been bad enough to make him a very poor bet to break out. Ryan Fitzpatrick does not exactly fill the Jets' hole at quarterback, but he is likely to be the better short-term option.
New England Patriots
Biggest post-draft weakness: Cornerback
After losing Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner in free agency, the Patriots appeared likely to take a corner early in the draft. Instead, perhaps scared off by the ghosts of Ras-I Dowling and Terrence Wheatley, Bill Belichick waited until the seventh round to draft a corner. The Patriots now have Bradley Fletcher, signed from the Eagles in free agency, as their No. 1 cornerback.
If all you know of Fletcher are 2014 lowlights like this and this, then this sounds like an untenable situation. It's not quite as bad as it seems. No cornerback in football gets a bigger boost in his numbers when we account for the opposing receivers he had to face. If we adjust for Fletcher's schedule -- including five games lining up across from Dez Bryant (fifth in receiving DVOA), DeSean Jackson (sixth), and Jordy Nelson (eighth) -- Fletcher actually ranked 36th in adjusted success rate, making Fletcher an above-average corner. He is also an excellent value at the price the Patriots paid for him.
The fact that Fletcher is underrated and came at a bargain rate would make him an excellent No. 2 corner. He's still not a desirable option as your team's top corner. Even adjusting for opposition, the Eagles were still just 24th against opponents' top wideouts in 2014. Perhaps the only other potential choice on the roster is Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler, and then only because his small sample size as a rookie leaves his ceiling undefined. Barring a midseason trade like the one that brought Aqib Talib to Foxborough in 2012, the Patriots will most likely have to scheme around lacking a true top cover corner.
