Series Thread: ALCS: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians

[HurricaneDij39]

Blue Jays in six.

I've doubted the Indians before (and glad I was wrong), but I just got a feeling that this is Toronto's year to run the table in the AL...

 

[WiggyRuss]

Blue Jays in six.

I've doubted the Indians before (and glad I was wrong), but I just got a feeling that this is Toronto's year to run the table in the AL...

It is just hard to objectively look at the Tribe after losing Carrasco and Salazar and thinking they could win at such a level in the playoffs- but Francona has seemed to mitigate those losses by brilliantly using the best bullpen in the playoffs. Andrew Miller is just such a weapon. Bring him in and you basically have 2 pretty dominant innings. Cody Allen is a solid-good closer- not great, but around top third in baseball.

Tomlin and Bauer have given up a lot of homers this year- that kind of worries me against the Blue Jays. If the Tomlin and Bauer can keep the Indians in the game until the 6th- the Indians will have a very good chance as I think they play better defense, run the bases better, and obviousl have a superior bullpen.

Toronto has the advantage in the lineup and the starting pitchign. Those are nice advantages to have but a lot of these Toronto starters have thrown a LOT of innings compared to their career averages this year. AT some point that has to catch up with them- HOPEFULLY anyway.

 

[Battlelyon]

The Indians were supposed to lose to the media darling Red Sox, and I suppose they are suppose to lose to the Blue Jays too. Let's keep playing.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

I endorse this Series

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

a lot of these Toronto starters have thrown a LOT of innings compared to their career averages this year. AT some point that has to catch up with them- HOPEFULLY anyway.

Um, no. Sanchez and Stroman essentially started their careers as starters this season (Stro is a weird case because he did start in 2014 but missed pretty much all of last regular season), Marco Estrada pitched 3 innings less this season compared with the same time last year, and RA Dickey who isn't on the roster pitched like 50 fewer innings.

The only guy whose workload increased was JA Happ and he's gone 6-1 since the start of September with a 2.83 ERA.

 

[Shanemansj13]

It is just hard to objectively look at the Tribe after losing Carrasco and Salazar and thinking they could win at such a level in the playoffs- but Francona has seemed to mitigate those losses by brilliantly using the best bullpen in the playoffs. Andrew Miller is just such a weapon. Bring him in and you basically have 2 pretty dominant innings. Cody Allen is a solid-good closer- not great, but around top third in baseball.

Tomlin and Bauer have given up a lot of homers this year- that kind of worries me against the Blue Jays. If the Tomlin and Bauer can keep the Indians in the game until the 6th- the Indians will have a very good chance as I think they play better defense, run the bases better, and obviousl have a superior bullpen.

Toronto has the advantage in the lineup and the starting pitchign. Those are nice advantages to have but a lot of these Toronto starters have thrown a LOT of innings compared to their career averages this year. AT some point that has to catch up with them- HOPEFULLY anyway.

The key most likely in the series is going to be the little things...baserunning, bullpen moves, sacrifices. Well that's hope those are the keys bc Toronto can really hit the ball. It seems like everyone forgets, the Red Sox were by far the best offense in the majors and the Indians held them in check. It is a different series though and a much tougher one, it only gets harder the tougher you get in the playoffs.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I just got a feeling that this is Toronto's year to run the table in the AL...

Could be.

2016 offense:

CLE - .262/.329/.430/.759 / 94 OPS+ / 777 RS
TOR - .248/.330/.426/.577 / 100 OPS+ / 759 RS

2016 base running:

CLE - 134 SB / 31 CS / 81.2 SB%
TOR - 54 SB / 24 CS / 69.2 SB%

I don't know enough about Toronto's defense or advanced defensive metrics to have an opinion on a defensive comparison. I know from watching that the Indians defense is pretty damn solid. I'm happy to call that a push.

2016 pitching:

CLE - 3.84 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 122 ERA+
TOR - 3.78 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 113 ERA+

Cleveland's pitching rotation is pretty banged up, and decidedly not the guys that put up those numbers, but on the other hand, they just held the Red Sox, a significantly better offensive team than the Blue Jays, to just 2.3 runs/game, and with the off days, Kluber could be available for three games.

Should be a good series. I hope the Indians win, but if they don't, I hope it's a good series. Two ALDS sweeps isn't a very dramatic start the AL series.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Um, no. Sanchez and Stroman essentially started their careers as starters this season (Stro is a weird case because he did start in 2014 but missed pretty much all of last regular season), Marco Estrada pitched 3 innings less this season compared with the same time last year, and RA Dickey who isn't on the roster pitched like 50 fewer innings.

The only guy whose workload increased was JA Happ and he's gone 6-1 since the start of September with a 2.83 ERA.

well its obvious that sanchez and stroman are in completely uncharted territory regarding how many innings they have thrown. Stroman has thrown over 200 innings this year- that is a huge increase over last season and is by far the most in his career.

Sanchez the same thing- its why they skipped starts for him at times- Sanchez is at almost 200 innings which is a HUGE increase over the maximum he has ever thrown in his career.

at some point that typically catches up with you. Happ is only just a bit more than 20 innings over the most he has ever pitched in his career- which is reasonable.

 

[The Q]

I just don't see how CLE and keep this smoke and mirrors bullpen up. They have 2 viable MLB starters. Kluber might have to win them 3 games.

 

[The Q]

To be clear, I'm not rooting against CLE or hating on them for winning.

Tomlin is a worse matchup for TOR than Boston (TOR relies far more on the long ball, they hit more HRs than Boston did).

Throwing both Bauer and Kluber on short rest will be interesting. And I doubt they're gonna try a bullpen game with say Clevenger, Salazar and McAllister.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I just don't see how CLE and keep this smoke and mirrors bullpen up. They have 2 viable MLB starters. Kluber might have to win them 3 games.

Well if Francona keeps using Miller in a particular way like he has it really shuts down the 6th and 7th for the opposing offense. That move has been interesting. The Indians offense is going to have to continue to hit to keep games close bc the Blue Jays are hot. It is hard to believe they can win with Kluber and then Tomlin and Bauer who are essentially their 4th and 5th starters. Both those two guys need to continue to deliver for the Indians to keep winning and BP needs to be lights out. If they can shut down the Red Sox, they can shut down any offense IMO

 

[Shanemansj13]

To be clear, I'm not rooting against CLE or hating on them for winning.

Tomlin is a worse matchup for TOR than Boston (TOR relies far more on the long ball, they hit more HRs than Boston did).

Throwing both Bauer and Kluber on short rest will be interesting. And I doubt they're gonna try a bullpen game with say Clevenger, Salazar and McAllister.

Yeah they do, but remember Toronto only had 13 more homeruns than Boston, so it isn't a huge advantage but Boston is a better hitting club and Toronto does rely on the long ball to boast that offense more than any team.

 

[The Q]

Well if Francona keeps using Miller in a particular way like he has it really shuts down the 6th and 7th for the opposing offense. That move has been interesting. The Indians offense is going to have to continue to hit to keep games close bc the Blue Jays are hot. It is hard to believe they can win with Kluber and then Tomlin and Bauer who are essentially their 4th and 5th starters. Both those two guys need to continue to deliver for the Indians to keep winning and BP needs to be lights out. If they can shut down the Red Sox, they can shut down any offense IMO

But you can only do that move so often. He can't throw 2 innings in every game. Hell i'd say 3 games tops. And that's with days off built in. I think you'll definitely see it happen in games 2 and 5.

 

[Shanemansj13]

But you can only do that move so often. He can't throw 2 innings in every game. Hell i'd say 3 games tops. And that's with days off built in. I think you'll definitely see it happen in games 2 and 5.

I agree. He will have close to 4 days rest so we could see it in game 1 or 2 then with an off day 4 or 5 and possibly one game in 6 or 7. He could have 3 appearances and that is just assuming they need him. If they don't need him one game or two games then he gets more rest. He pitched in Game 1 & 3 for 2 innings so 3 to 4 games if needed isn't a stretch...this is the playoffs, they will need him as much as possible.

 

[The Q]

I agree. He will have close to 4 days rest so we could see it in game 1 or 2 then with an off day 4 or 5 and possibly one game in 6 or 7. He could have 3 appearances and that is just assuming they need him. If they don't need him one game or two games then he gets more rest. He pitched in Game 1 & 3 for 2 innings so 3 to 4 games if needed isn't a stretch...this is the playoffs, they will need him as much as possible.

He can throw some 1 inning stints. But I think those 2 inning stints will be more limited.

 

[navamind]

I would expect there to be a lot of opposing fans in the stadiums during this series. It's not that big of a drive from Toronto to Cleveland (and vice versa).

Should be a fun series.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I just don't see how CLE and keep this smoke and mirrors bullpen up

I remember once seeing you say that the Indians are going to regret "overpaying" Miller. Twice I asked you to explain why you thought he was overpaid and you ignored me both times.

Now according to you, the Indians have a "smoke and mirrors" bullpen. The Indians' bullpen kept their smoke and mirrors routine up all season to the tune of a 3.45 ERA. Miller was a deadline acquisition and only accounted for about 6% of the Indians' relief innings, so it's not all built around him.

Clearly, you either hate Andrew Miller for some strange reason, or you don't know what you're talking about. I suppose it could be a combination of the two as well.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

To be clear, I'm not rooting against CLE or hating on them for winning.

Tomlin is a worse matchup for TOR than Boston (TOR relies far more on the long ball, they hit more HRs than Boston did).

Throwing both Bauer and Kluber on short rest will be interesting. And I doubt they're gonna try a bullpen game with say Clevenger, Salazar and McAllister.

The rotation is definately shaky. Hopefully they get Salazar back AND he's effective - as I understand it, he won't start, but will be available out of the bullpen. A strong bullpen can get a team pretty far. Look at the 2015 Royals. Their rotation sucked, and they won it all. They also didn't have a Kluber.

Kluber will pitch 1, 4 and 7 (if needed).

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

The Indians offense is going to have to continue to hit to keep games close bc the Blue Jays are hot.

The Blue Jays are swinging hot bats, but they also just beat up on the 10th and 13th best pitching staffs in the AL (based on team ERA). They were expected to do that. The Red Sox weren't expected to be held to 2.3 runs a game.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

But you can only do that move so often. He can't throw 2 innings in every game. Hell i'd say 3 games tops. And that's with days off built in. I think you'll definitely see it happen in games 2 and 5.

Agreed. Miller can't do that every day, and I'd probably agree, no more than three games. On the other hand, Cleveland has a top bullpen without Miller.

Kluber is going to have to make a name for himself for the Tribe to push this thing.