Aces

[TKOSpikes]

Assuming Kershaw and Scherzer are #1, and #2...

I would like to get thoughts on your 3-6 rankings... tough to narrow down, I know....

 

[tlance]

I have Arrieta 3, but will not draft him unless he falls to the mid 3rd round.

Bumgarner 4, Sale 5, Jose Fernandez 6 for me.

 

[Chef99]

I go Bumgarner, Sale, Price and Fernandez next. After that, probably Kluber and DeGrom.

 

[molsaniceman]

so a top 6 pitcher is on an innings limit

Marlins manager Don Mattingly said Sunday that half of Jose Fernandez's starts this season will come with an extra day of rest.

Fernandez will also start the Marlins' second game of the season rather than the first as the club monitors his workload in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Miami hasn't revealed a strict innings cap for the right-hander, but the feeling is that he'll likely top out around 180 frames.

I think after CK its all a crapshoot for 2-10 but here goes

max
arrieta
greinke
bum
price--my homer pick

 

[tlance]

so a top 6 pitcher is on an innings limit

Marlins manager Don Mattingly said Sunday that half of Jose Fernandez's starts this season will come with an extra day of rest.

Fernandez will also start the Marlins' second game of the season rather than the first as the club monitors his workload in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Miami hasn't revealed a strict innings cap for the right-hander, but the feeling is that he'll likely top out around 180 frames.

I think after CK its all a crapshoot for 2-10 but here goes

max
arrieta
greinke
bum
price--my homer pick

Jose Fernandez has been every bit as good as Kershaw when he has pitched. If he were not on a innings limit, he would be number 2 for me.

As for Greinke, he is a very good good pitcher, but he lacks the K upside of the others. Also, the move from LA to AZ will not Help him.

I have Greinke outside the top 10, after Harvey, Kluber, Price and even Strasburg.

Price in Fenway also worries me a little. His K rate declined last year, and now he has the monster and a mediocre defense to deal with.

 

[tlance]

180 innings from Fernandez is better than 230 from most other aces, IMO.

Not for points leagues, but roto for sure.

 

[TKOSpikes]

It was Sale for me earlier this year, but I've been back tracking. Bumgarner having ankle/oblique issues has put me off, so he's out. I was actually hoping for JF love, but the innings limit is undeniable. Also, I love Harvey.

I ask because my draft (slow, snake, points) is starting tomorrow. I have the 14th pick (of 15) and am definitely taking at least one arm. Hoping Mad Max falls, but having trouble with the decision if he's taken.

 

[Chef99]

It was Sale for me earlier this year, but I've been back tracking. Bumgarner having ankle/oblique issues has put me off, so he's out. I was actually hoping for JF love, but the innings limit is undeniable. Also, I love Harvey.

I ask because my draft (slow, snake, points) is starting tomorrow. I have the 14th pick (of 15) and am definitely taking at least one arm. Hoping Mad Max falls, but having trouble with the decision if he's taken.

Man, I love Scherzer. I hate that he's with the Gnats. It is a true love/hate relationship.

 

[Chef99]

Holy crap, I forgot all about Harvey. He will be a stud this year, stronger than ever.

However, I am totally biased.

 

[Driaz]

180 innings from Fernandez is better than 230 from most other aces, IMO.

Not for points leagues, but roto for sure.

Agree with most of this. The exception is the only category that I typically pay the least amount of attention to since the pitcher has no control over it. Wins. With an innings limit Wins will be even harder to "achieve" since the bullpen will have an extra inning to blow the lead, and he already "currently" (and probably will remain given the Marlins reported asking prices) is on a team projected to do quite poorly in overall wins. Again, I don't typically chase Wins, but when trying to differentiate between otherwise very equal pitchers, it's something to look at.

 

[molsaniceman]

Agree with most of this. The exception is the only category that I typically pay the least amount of attention to since the pitcher has no control over it. Wins. With an innings limit Wins will be even harder to "achieve" since the bullpen will have an extra inning to blow the lead, and he already "currently" (and probably will remain given the Marlins reported asking prices) is on a team projected to do quite poorly in overall wins. Again, I don't typically chase Wins, but when trying to differentiate between otherwise very equal pitchers, it's something to look at.

well if he plays against braves and phils alot should get some wins

 

[tlance]

Agree with most of this. The exception is the only category that I typically pay the least amount of attention to since the pitcher has no control over it. Wins. With an innings limit Wins will be even harder to "achieve" since the bullpen will have an extra inning to blow the lead, and he already "currently" (and probably will remain given the Marlins reported asking prices) is on a team projected to do quite poorly in overall wins. Again, I don't typically chase Wins, but when trying to differentiate between otherwise very equal pitchers, it's something to look at.

I should also add, My $ league is roto with innings limits, so I base my rankings mostly on that format. More innings does not equate to more value unless they are of the same quality.

As for the wins, I am not too worried for the Marlins. They have two teams in their division that are clearly worse than they are (Phillies and Braves). I think the Marlins come in somewhere near .500 with potential to be a little better if a couple things click and Fernandez/Stanton stay healthy.

Fernandez is good enough to win 15-16 in 180 innings.

 

[tlance]

well if he plays against braves and phils alot should get some wins

LOL. This came in while I was typing mine.

I agree!

 

[Driaz]

well if he plays against braves and phils alot should get some wins

LOL...touche.

They also have the Nationals and Mets in their division though...

 

[Driaz]

I should also add, My $ league is roto with innings limits, so I base my rankings mostly on that format. More innings does not equate to more value unless they are of the same quality.

As for the wins, I am not too worried for the Marlins. They have two teams in their division that are clearly worse than they are (Phillies and Braves). I think the Marlins come in somewhere near .500 with potential to be a little better if a couple things click and Fernandez/Stanton stay healthy.

Fernandez is good enough to win 15-16 in 180 innings.

I concur that for K/9 he is extremely elite and I can see the separation you have in your rankings and having him top 5....just looked and you actually have him at 6 which is a very good ranking for your format. Most formats I have him a little lower but I'm also a fairly risk averse player. I think 15-16 wins is definitely a bit to the right of the bell curve of expected outcomes for Fernandez given 180 innings. I've seen most projections around 10-12.

 

[molsaniceman]

LOL...touche.

They also have the Nationals and Mets in their division though...

his 1st game is tigers then the mets depending on how they use their days off but i agree u can use wins as a tie breaker between 2 pitchers if all else is equal
its just so unpredictable just ask cliff lee 6-9 3.16 era in 30 games

 

[Driaz]

his 1st game is tigers then the mets depending on how they use their days off but i agree u can use wins as a tie breaker between 2 pitchers if all else is equal
its just so unpredictable just ask cliff lee 6-9 3.16 era in 30 games

Yep, that's why I hate wins as a category. Using a team dependent stat for a measure of individual performance is beyond dumb....

 

[tlance]

I concur that for K/9 he is extremely elite and I can see the separation you have in your rankings and having him top 5....just looked and you actually have him at 6 which is a very good ranking for your format. Most formats I have him a little lower but I'm also a fairly risk averse player. I think 15-16 wins is definitely a bit to the right of the bell curve of expected outcomes for Fernandez given 180 innings. I've seen most projections around 10-12.

Realistically, I am projecting him for 13-14. Just said he is good enough to get more.

Steamer has him for 12, and they are notoriously conservative.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Yep, that's why I hate wins as a category. Using a team dependent stat for a measure of individual performance is beyond dumb....

If a quality start standard wasn't so low, I think it would have over taken wins by now.

But when a pitcher can go 33 for 33 in quality starts and have a 4.50 era, something's out of whack imo.

 

[Driaz]

If a quality start standard wasn't so low, I think it would have over taken wins by now.

But when a pitcher can go 33 for 33 in quality starts and have a 4.50 era, something's out of whack imo.

Yep, and it would be so easy to make quality starts a very good measure of starting pitching value. Change it to 6 innings and 2 or fewer runs or 7+ innings and 3 or less runs.

Very sad that as awful of a category wins is, we don't have a better alternative.