2018 Roster Expectations

[SFGRTB]

The Giants actually own team options on him at league min (500K) for the next 2 years.

Not looking good for him sticking around, though.

This is accurate.

Plus, even if the Giants WERE on the hook for the remaining years, he'd be at the minimum so no problem to cut him. My issue is that will the Giants go through that hurdle of letting him go yet again. I have my doubts. I guess the second best outcome we could have asked for was this, the best being he miraculously returned to Kung Fu Panda form.

 

[calsnowskier]

Here is an updated analysis...

FAs

Hundley
Morse
Federowicz

Options (buyout cost)

Cain (7.5M)
Bumgarner (1.5M)
Moore (1M)

Arbitration

Strickland (1)
Panik (1)
Gearrin (2)
Dyson (2)
Smith (3)

MLB Contracts

Cueto (opt-out)
Posey
Samardzija
Pence
Melancon
Span
Crawford
Belt

Team controlled

Law
Parker
Williamson
Hernandez
Blach
Arroyo
Jones
Brown
Calixte
Crick
Gregorio (needs to be added to 40)
M. Gomez
R. Gomez
Moronta
Chase Johnson
Okert
Osich
Slania
Slater
Stratton
Suarez(Al)
Tomlinson
Vielma
Sandoval

That is 43 players (40 + Smith, Morse and Gregorio). I think these players will be cut/non-tendered/DFA'd (in order of my expectations)...

Morse
Cain
Federowicz
Hundley (I think they will try to resign him, though)

Sandoval
Al.Suarez
R. Gomez
Brown
Gearin (??)
Johnson (??)
Gregorio (??)
Hernandez (??)
Parker (??)

That is 8-13 guys clearing off the 40-man.

So that leaves us with 5-10 open spots for Rule V protections/FA signings. Of course trades could change this.

 

[LHG]

I thought Sandoval was free agent eligible after the season but the Giants could opt in to keeping him another year (my rough paraphrase of what someone else stated on this forum). Also, Baseball Reference shows that Federowicz isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season. He will probably be dfa'd or non-tendered, however, unless the Giants cut ties with Trevor Brown and want a backup in case they don't re-sign Hundley.

 

[calsnowskier]

I thought Sandoval was free agent eligible after the season but the Giants could opt in to keeping him another year (my rough paraphrase of what someone else stated on this forum). Also, Baseball Reference shows that Federowicz isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season. He will probably be dfa'd or non-tendered, however, unless the Giants cut ties with Trevor Brown and want a backup in case they don't re-sign Hundley.

I didn't even look up FedX. I just assumed he had enough MLB time to be past his arb years.

Doesn't change anything except maybe my confidence in his chances of leaving.

 

[calsnowskier]

Moore's option has officially been picked up, so that ends that debate...

 

[calsnowskier]

The Giants will need 5 slots for the Rule V protections (Martinez, Coonrod, Beede, Snelton and Garcia. Maybe Johnson as a 6th. They will also need to add Smith and Gregorio.

We know Morse, Cain and Hundley will be off the roster.

That leaves 4 or 5 additional drops.

Of the arb-eligible players, only Gearin is at risk of getting non-tendered, but the org appears to like him, so I will guess he is not non-tendered.

Of the players under team control, Albert Suarez, Roberto Gomez and Pablo Sandoval seem to be easy DFAs. So who will the last one or two be?

Trevor Brown may be an option, seeing as they did not even call him up for September this year. And his year in Sacto was REALLY bad.

Chase Johnson is a possibility. He only had 10 IP in '17. But he still has 3 options after this year, so he would likely not make it through waivers.

Maybe the Giants purge the big league roster a bit. There are 3 OFers currently in the Giants OF, likely only competing for a single spot next year. Hernandez, Parker or Williamson could all fall to the axe to clear room. To be totally honest, losing any of them would not be a huge loss to the org, IMHO.

Gregorio may simply not be added back to the 40. I am not certain if this would require he be DFA'd or not, though. I also would expect that he would either be claimed (if he needs to be DFA'd) or drafted. He has no options remaining, so he is either a MLBer or off the 40. His lack of flexibility may make the org decide to look elsewhere. And the PED stink is strong with this one.

 

[calsnowskier]

I don't think I like watching Sandoval get hot. I fear the FO will get some wacky ideas...

 

[LHG]

I don't think I like watching Sandoval get hot. I fear the FO will get some wacky ideas...

I tried to create a game thread earlier and in it, I posed a question about Sandoval. Specifically, would the team bring him back for 2018 if he gets his average above .200, under the "getting his legs under him" rationale?

 

[calsnowskier]

I tried to create a game thread earlier and in it, I posed a question about Sandoval. Specifically, would the team bring him back for 2018 if he gets his average above .200, under the "getting his legs under him" rationale?

They can get a "name" for min wage. I think their default position is to bring him back, and he needs to prove them wrong on that belief.

 

[LHG]

They can get a "name" for min wage. I think their default position is to bring him back, and he needs to prove them wrong on that belief.

Hasn't he already done that?

 

[calsnowskier]

Hasn't he already done that?

I think he did. But he got lazy and let them change their mind again.

I hope I am wrong. And I am not sure that I truly believe the org WILL take him back. I am speaking from fear here.

But I also didn't think they would sign him after Boston kicked him to the curb.

 

[VASFfan]

I think he did. But he got lazy and let them change their mind again.

I hope I am wrong. And I am not sure that I truly believe the org WILL take him back. I am speaking from fear here.

But I also didn't think they would sign him after Boston kicked him to the curb.

I'm beginning to believe (or fear), as crazy/foolish as this would be, that the Giants want to make one more Pickett's Charge. I'm thinking that their feeling is, we've got Span and Pence for one more year, Cueto opted in, we've got Belt and Crawford's deals (and their trade value right now coming off of mediocre years is nil)...we're on the hook for the money, so sure, bring back Moore, bring back Panda, why the hell not? I think this is likely to just lead to another, godawful year, but that's what they're thinking, I believe.

If so, then hopefully the corollary is that once salaries start coming off the books, then they'll clean house and start a serious rebuild.

Part of me is hoping this actually is their rationale. Because otherwise, the only other conclusion I can draw is that the front office has lost their collective minds.

 

[calsnowskier]

I'm beginning to believe (or fear), as crazy/foolish as this would be, that the Giants want to make one more Pickett's Charge. I'm thinking that their feeling is, we've got Span and Pence for one more year, Cueto opted in, we've got Belt and Crawford's deals (and their trade value right now coming off of mediocre years is nil)...we're on the hook for the money, so sure, bring back Moore, bring back Panda, why the hell not? I think this is likely to just lead to another, godawful year, but that's what they're thinking, I believe.

If so, then hopefully the corollary is that once salaries start coming off the books, then they'll clean house and start a serious rebuild.

Part of me is hoping this actually is their rationale. Because otherwise, the only other conclusion I can draw is that the front office has lost their collective minds.

This makes some sense. Go all-in for ‘18, then blow the mfer up. EVERYONE gets traded/dumped/allowed to walk, save for Posey.

Bum gets traded after next year.
Craw and Belt, if they have value, get traded.
Pence and Span walk.
Cueto and Sammy likely stick around, because inning still need to be thrown.
Dyson will likely be the most valuable trade piece in the bully, so he gets flipped.
Melancon will be worthless, so he sticks.

Actually very depressing.

Now for some clearing...

None of this fits the Giants MO that they have shown in their history. I would expect MAYBE 20% of that to actually happen.

 

[LHG]

I'm beginning to believe (or fear), as crazy/foolish as this would be, that the Giants want to make one more Pickett's Charge. I'm thinking that their feeling is, we've got Span and Pence for one more year, Cueto opted in, we've got Belt and Crawford's deals (and their trade value right now coming off of mediocre years is nil)...we're on the hook for the money, so sure, bring back Moore, bring back Panda, why the hell not? I think this is likely to just lead to another, godawful year, but that's what they're thinking, I believe.

If so, then hopefully the corollary is that once salaries start coming off the books, then they'll clean house and start a serious rebuild.

Part of me is hoping this actually is their rationale. Because otherwise, the only other conclusion I can draw is that the front office has lost their collective minds.

This makes some sense. Go all-in for ‘18, then blow the mfer up. EVERYONE gets traded/dumped/allowed to walk, save for Posey.

Bum gets traded after next year.
Craw and Belt, if they have value, get traded.
Pence and Span walk.
Cueto and Sammy likely stick around, because inning still need to be thrown.
Dyson will likely be the most valuable trade piece in the bully, so he gets flipped.
Melancon will be worthless, so he sticks.

Actually very depressing.

Now for some clearing...

None of this fits the Giants MO that they have shown in their history. I would expect MAYBE 20% of that to actually happen.

What chatter I've read here and elsewhere seems to suggest that the FO thinks that they can make a contender of the team next year. If that is true (that they are operating on this assumption, not that it is possible), then it would be a fairly rare reversal. A 30 game shift would be radical, and, the way this team is playing, that would mean a 93-69 record. What would it take to make a playoff contender? In the NL, the Rockies, who lead the charge for the 2nd Wild Card team, project to be 88-74. The Giants would need to gain 26 wins to hit that minimum. I don't care how radical the Giants get in offseaon upgrades, I don't see how that is possible within one year.

The way I see things shaking out, the Giants sell the farm for a one year run that falls horribly short. Knowing their penchant for not doing massive sell offs in season, they trade off one, maybe two veterans in July and let the rest of the veterans who will be free agents after 2018 walk in November, regardless of their value to the team. Then, the org starts to think about how to patch a team together while they build the farm. We go through another mid 00s nightmare in hopes that the farm gets built up like it was prior to 2010.

I hope my scenario is horribly wrong but I fear that it is quite possible.

 

[VASFfan]

This makes some sense. Go all-in for ‘18, then blow the mfer up. EVERYONE gets traded/dumped/allowed to walk, save for Posey.

Bum gets traded after next year.
Craw and Belt, if they have value, get traded.
Pence and Span walk.
Cueto and Sammy likely stick around, because inning still need to be thrown.
Dyson will likely be the most valuable trade piece in the bully, so he gets flipped.
Melancon will be worthless, so he sticks.

Actually very depressing.

Now for some clearing...

None of this fits the Giants MO that they have shown in their history. I would expect MAYBE 20% of that to actually happen.

In reading this, I was struck with a horrible thought...are you so sure it would be dump everything 'save for Posey'? Who fetches the biggest return in top-notch talent but Buster? Even more than Mad Bum.

Besides, IF the Giants torched the team and started a complete do-over, do you keep Buster and sort of use him as the elder statesman to teach the kids how to do it? Or do you think, jeez, what a horrible waste of a great player, let's send him to a team like the Yanks or Red Sox that are perennial contenders and from whom we could get a king's ransom and let him play out his remaining productive years with a team that can actually compete for titles, rather than put him thru the horror show of some of the things I've seen in my 50 years as a Giants fan. Of course, those years were often due to general organizational incompetence, which hopefully isn't in our future, but still...

But yeah, this depressing line of thinking convinces me that, for better or for worse, enjoy MadBum in '18 (assuming he lasts until then), because he isn't long for San Francisco.

 

[calsnowskier]

In reading this, I was struck with a horrible thought...are you so sure it would be dump everything 'save for Posey'? Who fetches the biggest return in top-notch talent but Buster? Even more than Mad Bum.

Besides, IF the Giants torched the team and started a complete do-over, do you keep Buster and sort of use him as the elder statesman to teach the kids how to do it? Or do you think, jeez, what a horrible waste of a great player, let's send him to a team like the Yanks or Red Sox that are perennial contenders and from whom we could get a king's ransom and let him play out his remaining productive years with a team that can actually compete for titles, rather than put him thru the horror show of some of the things I've seen in my 50 years as a Giants fan. Of course, those years were often due to general organizational incompetence, which hopefully isn't in our future, but still...

But yeah, this depressing line of thinking convinces me that, for better or for worse, enjoy MadBum in '18 (assuming he lasts until then), because he isn't long for San Francisco.

I think Bum and MAYBE Panik could fetch high price tags.

Posey is a Jeter-like player, who is better than his numbers. He is also a catcher, who effects both hitters AND pitchers. He would be invaluable for a rebuilding team as he will keep all the kids in line. Especially in a post-Bochy world.

 

[msgkings322]

Man you guys sure are salty after the 2010-2014 run. Personally I don't care what they try to do from here on out. I wanted one ring the gods gave us three.

Maybe shit will work out soon, maybe it will be a while, I'm good with either.

But Buster is untouchable to me. I'd kind of prefer Bum to stay too.

 

[LHG]

Man you guys sure are salty after the 2010-2014 run. Personally I don't care what they try to do from here on out. I wanted one ring the gods gave us three.

Maybe shit will work out soon, maybe it will be a while, I'm good with either.

But Buster is untouchable to me. I'd kind of prefer Bum to stay too.

 

[calsnowskier]

Man you guys sure are salty after the 2010-2014 run. Personally I don't care what they try to do from here on out. I wanted one ring the gods gave us three.

Maybe shit will work out soon, maybe it will be a while, I'm good with either.

But Buster is untouchable to me. I'd kind of prefer Bum to stay too.

In the big picture, sure, I am good. The Giants are 3-2 in the Series in my lifetime. If they never get back, that is a successful lifetime run.

That doesn’t mean I cease to care. I will still follow this team and offer my opinions (right, or, more likely, wrong). If I agree with the direction they are going in, I will say so(and I often do). If I disagree, I will say so.

That isn’t salt, that is fandom.

 

[Pattersonca65]

Great read

Brian Sabean: Giants ‘can’t go on like this’