2017 Division Prediction Thread

[ATL96Steeler]

AFC East: Patriots

Not much of a write-up needed. This is the easiest call year in and year out until Bill Belichick stops being the best coach in the game and the rest of the division stops being pretty awful.

NFC East: Cowboys

If Zeke gets suspended I don't think it will slow the Cowboys down enough. Both the Eagles and Cowboys saw good performances from their rookie QBs and shouldn't much as far as expect sophomore slumps. Kirk Cousins has solidified himself as true threat by being able to put up big numbers but the defense is still developing and won't have enough to take the division. I don't think the Giants will be a threat while they have TO 2.0 otherwise known as Odell Beckham Jr although their defense did make a big improvement last year. Having a distraction like that is only going to hurt them.

AFC North: Steelers

I really like the steps the Steelers took in offseason improving their defense. My biggest concern is Ben's commitment to the game as that can translate into playing with less passion. Still with arguably the best WR / RB combo in the league, I think they have enough to win the division again. I do think the Bengals will give a much better challenge than they did this year. Could the Browns finally not suck? I think they have a chance in the dark to land between 7-9 & 9-6 if Deshaun can manage an NFL offense. I can see the Ravens taking another step back as the Bengals & Browns improve.

NFC North: Packers

This is almost as good of a lock as the AFC East. I don't see Sam Bradford ( ) being the guy to take down the Packers without Adrian Peterson. I also don't think Matt Stafford can repeat the year he had and da Bears are going to be bad for awhile as they are rebuilding

AFC South: Titans

The Titans choked away 2-3 games last year and should have won the division. The recent signing of the 5th pick of the 2017 draft Corey Davis and the addition of Eric Decker gives Marcus Mariota the weapons he needs to make up the difference of those games. The Titans have a solid D and I don't believe in Andrew Luck and don't believe in the Texans. This division is hungry for a standout and I think the Titans will be that team.

NFC South: Falcons

This is a hard one for me. I am a fan of the Cam and the Panthers, I think they will rebound from last year and there is the hangover factor looming on the Falcons but I think they stay hungry and win the division again. The Buccaneers are going to be the sexy pick but I still think they are 1-3 years out from taking the division. There will definitely be at least 1 Wildcard from this division.

AFC West: Raiders

It's going to be interesting watching what the Chiefs do with their QB situation. Will the rookie win the top spot or will they go with Alex Smith so they can ease Mahomes into his role. Either way I think it will keep the Chiefs from winning the amount of games they need in order to keep up with the Raiders. The Chargers will be fighting their own demons with their weird situation in LA and the Broncos still need a better QB option IMO

NFC West: Cardinals

I don't like the Cardinals and really don't like Carson Palmer but I think they will have fixed what prevented them from living up to expectations last year. They have at worst the 2nd best RB in the game and one of those last hurrah vibes with Fitz, Palmer and maybe even Bruce Arians. I also think this is the year all of the drama catches up to the Seahwaks as the team is becoming less and less loyal to HC Pete Carroll. The Rams and 9ers are a joke. Nuff said about those two teams.

Good Post!

I'm in step with you on every DIV except the NFCE and NFCW...I like the Giants this yr. I think the Giants might be the more balanced team if they can get back to pressuring with 4 to 5 guys. They have the back end players to be a tough out every week, road or home. Not a huge slump or anything, but I think DCs will give try to make Dak think a little with some different fronts...@ DEN, AZ, ATL, OAK, and hosting KC & SEA...6 tough games out of DIV.

NFCW...SEA...I don't trust Palmer in a tight game and I don't trust him to stay healthy....if he does, I agree this will come down to the wire.

A few other tidbits.

NFCS...I'm agreeing on ATL...imo they will be better on DEF than LY...if they can maintain the consistency on OFC, they will be a solid unit...at least 10 wins. Bucs...tougher road this yr. We'll probably know by week 7 if they're are going to challenge. They go to MIA to open, home for CHI, @ MIN, NYG, NE, @ AZ, @ BUF...they need a minimum of 3-4 out of that grouping to have a chance I think. The last 6 are ATL x 2, GB, CAR, NO and always dangerous Stafford....I'm not sure if the Bucs are ready for that either.

CAR...I expect them to rebound from LY...how much? I'm not sure...We know about the DTs, but I think they are old on the edge, (Like the Peppers move, Ealy???) will the pass rush be there? McCaffery is a great talent, it will be interesting to see how Shula marries his skillset with Cam's.

AFCW...I was about 40% KC, 40% OAK, and 20% DEN before KC started making moves. I think it's time for Dee Ford to step up and be that guy on the other side of HOU...Chris Jones is one of the best DEs in the league, and add in one of the best secondaries, KC will be a tough. But, they lost some firepower on OFC that hasn't been replaced on paper. I like OAK too, but the top win total will be much lower this yr...I think 10 wins takes the DIV.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Good Post!

I'm in step with you on every DIV except the NFCE and NFCW...I like the Giants this yr. I think the Giants might be the more balanced team if they can get back to pressuring with 4 to 5 guys. They have the back end players to be a tough out every week, road or home. Not a huge slump or anything, but I think DCs will give try to make Dak think a little with some different fronts...@ DEN, AZ, ATL, OAK, and hosting KC & SEA...6 tough games out of DIV.

NFCW...SEA...I don't trust Palmer in a tight game and I don't trust him to stay healthy....if he does, I agree this will come down to the wire.

A few other tidbits.

NFCS...I'm agreeing on ATL...imo they will be better on DEF than LY...if they can maintain the consistency on OFC, they will be a solid unit...at least 10 wins. Bucs...tougher road this yr. We'll probably know by week 7 if they're are going to challenge. They go to MIA to open, home for CHI, @ MIN, NYG, NE, @ AZ, @ BUF...they need a minimum of 3-4 out of that grouping to have a chance I think. The last 6 are ATL x 2, GB, CAR, NO and always dangerous Stafford....I'm not sure if the Bucs are ready for that either.

CAR...I expect them to rebound from LY...how much? I'm not sure...We know about the DTs, but I think they are old on the edge, (Like the Peppers move, Ealy???) will the pass rush be there? McCaffery is a great talent, it will be interesting to see how Shula marries his skillset with Cam's.

AFCW...I was about 40% KC, 40% OAK, and 20% DEN before KC started making moves. I think it's time for Dee Ford to step up and be that guy on the other side of HOU...Chris Jones is one of the best DEs in the league, and add in one of the best secondaries, KC will be a tough. But, they lost some firepower on OFC that hasn't been replaced on paper. I like OAK too, but the top win total will be much lower this yr...I think 10 wins takes the DIV.

With all the love for Tampa this preseason, I wonder if they have made any strides defensively, because that side of the ball was not impressive at all last season, to say the least

As far as the AFC West, I wanted to like the Chargers, an improved defense, with a potentially explosive offense, but damn they have a really tough sched

Agreed on Carolina, I think as each year passes, and Cam is limited in his ability to run, I think Mccaffrey is exactly what that team needed as Cam slowly transitions into a pocket QB........Dont love their WR corps, losing Ginn is actually an underrated loss for them......Benjamin still has to prove he is a true #1, and i think they are still relying on Devin Funchess, unless I am missing someone

 

[Judge Fudge]

Your W-L ratio is way off. You have 293-219. It needs to be 256-256. You're 37 long on wins.

Hmm. Thanks, i didn't know that

 

[Judge Fudge]

I thought the Giants at 7-9, Seattle at 13-3 and Arizona at 12-4 was way off also

Gimme a reason not to trust Seattle. Most of the roster is back. Made some improvements with the draft.

I'm high on Arizona because they scare me alot. That defense when clicking can change the game. I cautiously trust Palmer but he goes down, they are fucked.

I could be wrong on the Giants( unlike you dirt. I admit that i could be wrong), but the Giants are the Arizona Coyotes of the NFL. It is hard to judge where there going and where they end up. I don't trust Eli. He costs his team games sometimes, probably as much as he wins games. That ol is ok( im a Seahawks fan. I can see ok Offensive line). There d is nothing really special.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Gimme a reason not to trust Seattle. Most of the roster is back. Made some improvements with the draft.

I'm high on Arizona because they scare me alot. That defense when clicking can change the game. I cautiously trust Palmer but he goes down, they are fucked.

I could be wrong on the Giants( unlike you dirt. I admit that i could be wrong), but the Giants are the Arizona Coyotes of the NFL. It is hard to judge where there going and where they end up. I don't trust Eli. He costs his team games sometimes, probably as much as he wins games. That ol is ok( im a Seahawks fan. I can see ok Offensive line). There d is nothing really special.

Dont know where the bolded comes from

I expect Seattle to win the division fairly handily, just believe 13-3 is a bit ambitious......Think the chinks in the armor of the defense are starting to show, and I think the Oline could alone cost that team a few games

On the Giants, not sure which D youve been watching, but it is pretty special, and not many people would be surprised if they are one of the better units in the league....Its arguably the best secondary in the league, they stuff the run with the best of them, and have 2 guys in Vernon and JPP that can get after the QB pretty good.......

I do agree on Eli, I believe he could potentially be the weak link on this team

 

[CowboyB]

Good Post!

I'm in step with you on every DIV except the NFCE and NFCW...I like the Giants this yr. I think the Giants might be the more balanced team if they can get back to pressuring with 4 to 5 guys. They have the back end players to be a tough out every week, road or home. Not a huge slump or anything, but I think DCs will give try to make Dak think a little with some different fronts...@ DEN, AZ, ATL, OAK, and hosting KC & SEA...6 tough games out of DIV.

NFCW...SEA...I don't trust Palmer in a tight game and I don't trust him to stay healthy....if he does, I agree this will come down to the wire.

A few other tidbits.

NFCS...I'm agreeing on ATL...imo they will be better on DEF than LY...if they can maintain the consistency on OFC, they will be a solid unit...at least 10 wins. Bucs...tougher road this yr. We'll probably know by week 7 if they're are going to challenge. They go to MIA to open, home for CHI, @ MIN, NYG, NE, @ AZ, @ BUF...they need a minimum of 3-4 out of that grouping to have a chance I think. The last 6 are ATL x 2, GB, CAR, NO and always dangerous Stafford....I'm not sure if the Bucs are ready for that either.

CAR...I expect them to rebound from LY...how much? I'm not sure...We know about the DTs, but I think they are old on the edge, (Like the Peppers move, Ealy???) will the pass rush be there? McCaffery is a great talent, it will be interesting to see how Shula marries his skillset with Cam's.

AFCW...I was about 40% KC, 40% OAK, and 20% DEN before KC started making moves. I think it's time for Dee Ford to step up and be that guy on the other side of HOU...Chris Jones is one of the best DEs in the league, and add in one of the best secondaries, KC will be a tough. But, they lost some firepower on OFC that hasn't been replaced on paper. I like OAK too, but the top win total will be much lower this yr...I think 10 wins takes the DIV.

Gracias! I figured I was due for a non-shit thread

Of course I hate the Giants and Eli but that definitely could happen. Since that division is so close I can admit that my homerism may have caused me to pick Dallas. Their defense is going to be critical to them being able to win the division. Their secondary will have to improve from last year and right now that is not a given.

I don't trust Palmer at all in big games either - but the regular season is his jam. They under performed greatly last year and were a few plays / missed field goals from being a playoff team. I think they will be much closer to the 2015 Cardinals who went to the AFCCG than the 2016 Cardinals who were a big disappointment. Still I can see Seattle winning the division so can't say you are far off.

I am looking forward to seeing how McCaffery translates his talent to the NFL. The Panthers are the team with the widest gap between potential and floor IMO.

KC will be good. Definitely a wildcard favorite IMO

 

[Earl Stevens]

The Raiders aren't sneaking up on anyone this year. They had a SRS of 3.1(5th in the AFC), which was lower than even the Broncos. Their point differential was terrible for a 12 win team. They got lucky in a lot of games much like the NY Giants did last year. Consider that the Falcons finished with one less win than the Raiders yet the Falcons point differential was 100 points higher than Oakland's was. Point differential matters. SRS matters. The two teams that had the highest SRS and point differentials made the SB last year. I've seen many people pick the Raiders to win the West, but I don't even think they finish within three games of Kansas City.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

With all the love for Tampa this preseason, I wonder if they have made any strides defensively, because that side of the ball was not impressive at all last season, to say the least

As far as the AFC West, I wanted to like the Chargers, an improved defense, with a potentially explosive offense, but damn they have a really tough sched

Agreed on Carolina, I think as each year passes, and Cam is limited in his ability to run, I think Mccaffrey is exactly what that team needed as Cam slowly transitions into a pocket QB........Dont love their WR corps, losing Ginn is actually an underrated loss for them......Benjamin still has to prove he is a true #1, and i think they are still relying on Devin Funchess, unless I am missing someone

Chargers have had some buzzards luck with injuries...I'm looking at them like NO...they can be a dangerous team on any given week... but will probably lose 6+ games.

CAR...the Panthers need to develop an underneath passing game, more 3 step stuff. Take advantage of McCaffery in space. The 5 and deeper step drops yield longer pass plays but more QB hits...Cam is starting to miss time due to injuries himself...The combination of McCaffery, Benjamin, and Olsen is not terrible but I'm not sold on Shula being able to incorporate McC well.

 

[CowboyB]

Gimme a reason not to trust Seattle. Most of the roster is back. Made some improvements with the draft.

I'm high on Arizona because they scare me alot. That defense when clicking can change the game. I cautiously trust Palmer but he goes down, they are fucked.

I could be wrong on the Giants( unlike you dirt. I admit that i could be wrong), but the Giants are the Arizona Coyotes of the NFL. It is hard to judge where there going and where they end up. I don't trust Eli. He costs his team games sometimes, probably as much as he wins games. That ol is ok( im a Seahawks fan. I can see ok Offensive line). There d is nothing really special.

My main reason is the team seeming to coming closer to becoming undone. From all the reports i keep hearing the Seahawks are becoming less and less loyal to Pete Carroll because of never owning his mistake and treating Russel Wilson completely different. I just think their chemistry won't be the same and couple that with a bounce back year I think they get beat by the Cardinals.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

The Raiders aren't sneaking up on anyone this year. They had a SRS of 3.1(5th in the AFC), which was lower than even the Broncos. Their point differential was terrible for a 12 win team. They got lucky in a lot of games much like the NY Giants did last year. Consider that the Falcons finished with one less win than the Raiders yet the Falcons point differential was 100 points higher than Oakland's was. Point differential matters. SRS matters. The two teams that had the highest SRS and point differentials made the SB last year. I've seen many people pick the Raiders to win the West, but I don't even think they finish within three games of Kansas City.

If you're saying OAK won't win 12 games this yr...I agree! I also don't think KC or DEN will either. I'm picking OAK with 10-6.

Your case for KC...I can buy it. They will have a solid DEF, can pressure and turn you over. Reid has some ground to make up on OFC imo, they need another WR threat to surface early. I can see them winning 10 games, but it might take some ST work like they seem to get on a regular basis.

 

[Earl Stevens]

NFC EAST: New York Giants - to me, this is the toughest division to predict. I think it's a two team race and I honestly think a sophomore slump hits Dallas but not horribly, just enough to let the Giants sneak in there with the division title.

The Giants are probably more likely to slump than the Cowboys are considering none of their statistics last year match their record. They were just like the Raiders, very lucky. Escaped a bunch of games they could have lost.

 

[Earl Stevens]

If you're saying OAK won't win 12 games this yr...I agree! I also don't think KC or DEN will either. I'm picking OAK with 10-6.

Your case for KC...I can buy it. They will have a solid DEF, can pressure and turn you over. Reid has some ground to make up on OFC imo, they need another WR threat to surface early. I can see them winning 10 games, but it might take some ST work like they seem to get on a regular basis.

I see the Raiders finishing 8-8.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I see the Raiders finishing 8-8.

That wouldn't shock me...maybe it was you who said it on here, but doing it with expectations is different than sneaking up on people.

I think they will be better on DEF this season.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

That wouldn't shock me...maybe it was you who said it on here, but doing it with expectations is different than sneaking up on people.

I think they will be better on DEF this season.

Not the biggest Carr guy, but if he continues to trend up into a perennial MVP type QB, and the big IF Lynch could turn thier running game from sub-par in 2016, to elite in 2017, its gonna be hard for them not to win 10 games

Same with the Giants, if Marshall and Engram turn that offense into a high powered unit, and I personally expect Perkins to brutally outplay what they got from Jennings last season, and if the defense continues to play at an elite level, I dont think you could make a comparison to what happened with them last season.

 

[Judge Fudge]

Dont know where the bolded comes from

I expect Seattle to win the division fairly handily, just believe 13-3 is a bit ambitious......Think the chinks in the armor of the defense are starting to show, and I think the Oline could alone cost that team a few games

I saw those kinks to. Alot had to do with health of iur defense. Sherm was hurt, Bam Bam, Bennett. Hopefully all is better.

I see our ol as a huge issue. Here is a case point.

When we took McDowell. My remote almost went through my tv. I wanted lamp or a Ol

My main reason is the team seeming to coming closer to becoming undone. From all the reports i keep hearing the Seahawks are becoming less and less loyal to Pete Carroll because of never owning his mistake and treating Russel Wilson completely different. I just think their chemistry won't be the same and couple that with a bounce back year I think they get beat by the Cardinals.

I see this as a issue but I also see this as something that a beat writer blew out of proportion and made it bigger than what it is.

Remember gentlemen, we don't have access to that locker room. We know what is reported

 

[Clayton]

The Raiders aren't sneaking up on anyone this year. They had a SRS of 3.1(5th in the AFC), which was lower than even the Broncos. Their point differential was terrible for a 12 win team. They got lucky in a lot of games much like the NY Giants did last year. Consider that the Falcons finished with one less win than the Raiders yet the Falcons point differential was 100 points higher than Oakland's was. Point differential matters. SRS matters. The two teams that had the highest SRS and point differentials made the SB last year. I've seen many people pick the Raiders to win the West, but I don't even think they finish within three games of Kansas City.

I really like your optimism with the Chiefs but the problem is that SRS and Point differential don't really translate from one year to the next.

Last year the Patriots won the Super Bowl but the year before the team with that kind of SRS and Point Differential was Carolina and they stunk last year.

The Broncos won the Super Bowl with a pretty unspectacular Point Differential and SRS just because they were able to cause key turnovers. The sample sizes in the NFL are so small that advanced stats are really inconclusive.

I do think the Raiders could have some issues. I'm sure the argument for them doing better has to do with their defense playing better...it definitely hasn't been as good as the names on their jerseys suggest. I certainly think they could run into issues if Carr or their oline regresses even a small bit.

 

[Judge Fudge]

That wouldn't shock me...maybe it was you who said it on here, but doing it with expectations is different than sneaking up on people.

I think they will be better on DEF this season.

Im a huge carr guy. Lynch returns. I see theu can compete in shootouts. But i might have overhyped them. I still think they take the division

 

[CowboyB]

I saw those kinks to. Alot had to do with health of iur defense. Sherm was hurt, Bam Bam, Bennett. Hopefully all is better.

I see our ol as a huge issue. Here is a case point.

When we took McDowell. My remote almost went through my tv. I wanted lamp or a Ol



I see this as a issue but I also see this as something that a beat writer blew out of proportion and made it bigger than what it is.

Remember gentlemen, we don't have access to that locker room. We know what is reported

Good point - it could just be hearsay. I think the division will be close fought between the two teams.

 

[Clayton]

Im a huge carr guy. Lynch returns. I see theu can compete in shootouts. But i might have overhyped them. I still think they take the division

28 yr old Marshawn Lynch and I think they are unanimous favorites but tbh I'm much more worried about Jamaal Charles but really not so much about either.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I think the problem with buying in on the Chiefs as compared to recent years comes down to several things things:

1) Uncertainty with the Running Game
2) Uncertainty with the health of the defense; passrush fell apart when key guys got hurt
2a) How good is Ford exactly? Had a tremendous first half and disappeared after a hamstring injury
3) Is Terrance Mitchell legit or a mirage
3a) Is the secondary's depth any good at all if a starter goes down? Last year was an emphatic no until Mitchell came in.
4) Is DJ going to be useful?
4a) Ramik/Eligwe/March? Are any useful?
4b) Bailey
5) Possible Smith Decline
6) Takeaway regression


7) Will anyone be healthy when it matters? Hasn't been the case in the playoffs. Need some good fortune there for a serious SB run; is the case for most teams, but doubly so for an Alex Smith run squad.

Some of these rhyme with issues from previous years, but in past years I could pretty much count on the running game being productive and a passrush. That'll go a ways if you don't turn the ball over. If everything rolls in their favor they're going to be a load to handle, but that's going into homer territory.