2014 College Football Strength of Schedules--#1 to #128

[4down20]

The basic concept behind a teams SOS, is the won/loss record (last season) of all the opponents that team will play this year. In Bama's case they are ranked at #95. It's still bullshit!!

Hey, he finally got it.

The NCAA method, based on win% is bullshit, but I'm betting not for the reasons you think. SoS as a metric is not, and is a common component of rankings, especially computer ones.

 

[boxedlunch]

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this is true, but there is still an effect. FCS is thrown out now, but even that skews the numbers. By giving that essentially a 0, you are implying that a FCS school is the same as playing an average FBS school on your schedule. It should be considered a bad game and lower for SOS, but it does not.

Now? How is now different than any other time?

It actually does not skew the numbers, it makes no impact. Whether the impact is more or less than FBS teams depends on other factors.

 

[boxedlunch]

quality of the team is not measured by SOS. That just measure the quality of your opponents.

Let me point out again, that this is nobody's SOS measure. It's some goofball who says it is.

 

[boxedlunch]

Oklahoma has nothing at all to do with Alabama SoS this year and vice versa.

Our schedule is #95 because:

1. The NCAA method is crap.
2. Our schedule sucks anyway.

Alabama doesn't finish 95 in the NCAA"s method.

Again, this is some screwball who claims this is an SOS measure, it's not an SOS measure.

 

[The Oldtimer]

Hey, he finally got it.

The NCAA method, based on win% is bullshit, but I'm betting not for the reasons you think. SoS as a metric is not, and is a common component of rankings, especially computer ones.

LOL, Yeah I guess I finally got it. I never really liked the SOS method, but who the hell am I?

 

[4down20]

Alabama doesn't finish 95 in the NCAA"s method.

Again, this is some screwball who claims this is an SOS measure, it's not an SOS measure.

Not sure what you mean. The NCAA releases 2 SoS measures every year. 1 is plain opponent win%, and the other is cumulative opp win% which is a little bit better.

I've never known anyone to use them in a serious manner however, because they are extremely flawed. That said, Alabama's schedule is shit this year, Arkansas is the toughest schedule it appears, Tennessee is a top schedule, Utah is a top schedule, etc. It's flawed, but it's in the ballpark.

 

[boxedlunch]

Not sure what you mean. The NCAA releases 2 SoS measures every year. 1 is plain opponent win%, and the other is cumulative opp win% which is a little bit better.

I've never known anyone to use them in a serious manner however, because they are extremely flawed. That said, Alabama's schedule is shit this year, Arkansas is the toughest schedule it appears, Tennessee is a top schedule, Utah is a top schedule, etc. It's flawed, but it's in the ballpark.

The NCAA has been using the toughest schedule measure since the 70s. As far as I know, they've never had another "schedule strength" measure. If they do, can you show me what it is.

 

[Codaxx]

The NCAA has been using the toughest schedule measure since the 70s. As far as I know, they've never had another "schedule strength" measure. If they do, can you show me what it is.

The BCS had a SOS formula in it originally. It was nothing this. It was ((2*(opponents record))+opponents' opponents record)/3, which is the standard SOS calculation. NCAA method is the worst.

 

[The Oldtimer]

Not sure what you mean. The NCAA releases 2 SoS measures every year. 1 is plain opponent win%, and the other is cumulative opp win% which is a little bit better.

I've never known anyone to use them in a serious manner however, because they are extremely flawed. That said, Alabama's schedule is shit this year, Arkansas is the toughest schedule it appears, Tennessee is a top schedule, Utah is a top schedule, etc. It's flawed, but it's in the ballpark.

Doesn't Bama play Texas A&M, LSU, Miss, Miss State, Florida, Arky and Auburn this season?

 

[boxedlunch]

The BCS had a SOS formula in it originally. It was nothing this. It was ((2*(opponents record))+opponents' opponents record)/3, which is the standard SOS calculation. NCAA method is the worst.

The NCAA method is bad. However, it's not what is listed here.

 

[4down20]

Doesn't Bama play Texas A&M, LSU, Miss, Miss State, Florida, Arky and Auburn this season?

Yes, but SoS is an average for all the games. When you have 1 good team and 1 bad team on your schedule, they tend to cancel things out, and at that point you are left with what is at best an average schedule.

Florida last year had a horrible record, so right now they bring the schedule down a little more than it probably should. Yet it's doubtful A&M is going to be as tough, and LSU is kind of a question mark as well. Ole Miss and Miss State are good top50 teams and they don't hurt the schedule, but they aren't near strong enough to make up for a team that won 1 single game the previous year. Arky I think/hope will be a little better this year.

Meanwhile WVU is not a strong OOC contender like we had been getting to start the season a few years ago. And our OOC schedule is ridiculously easy. Honestly, some may say that a 60th place team and a 120th place team are easy to beat no matter what, and that is probably true for a top team. But it damn sure makes a difference in schedule strength and any easiness would be less excuse not to schedule them.

Overall Alabama's schedule will be ranked higher at the end of the year most likely. However, I would be downright shocked if it ever gets anywhere better than the low end of average.

 

[Codaxx]

The NCAA method is bad. However, it's not what is listed here.

What is listed? The original OP had the article stating it used NCAA method

 

[4down20]

The NCAA has been using the toughest schedule measure since the 70s. As far as I know, they've never had another "schedule strength" measure. If they do, can you show me what it is.

I'm not sure where to find it on the new site. Back when I used the NCAA for my stats in rankings, I came across the 2 SoS measures I mentioned before. Simple win% formula and then the cumulative.

I suppose I can try to find them again.

 

[The Oldtimer]

Yes, but SoS is an average for all the games. When you have 1 good team and 1 bad team on your schedule, they tend to cancel things out, and at that point you are left with what is at best an average schedule.

Florida last year had a horrible record, so right now they bring the schedule down a little more than it probably should. Yet it's doubtful A&M is going to be as tough, and LSU is kind of a question mark as well. Ole Miss and Miss State are good top50 teams and they don't hurt the schedule, but they aren't near strong enough to make up for a team that won 1 single game the previous year. Arky I think/hope will be a little better this year.

Meanwhile WVU is not a strong OOC contender like we had been getting to start the season a few years ago. And our OOC schedule is ridiculously easy. Honestly, some may say that a 60th place team and a 120th place team are easy to beat no matter what, and that is probably true for a top team. But it damn sure makes a difference in schedule strength and any easiness would be less excuse not to schedule them.

Overall Alabama's schedule will be ranked higher at the end of the year most likely. However, I would be downright shocked if it ever gets anywhere better than the low end of average.

Fair enough. Damn, apparently I get confused easily. I just don't see much difference in Arky's SOS this year (#1) Vs. Bama's SOS schedule at (#95), as they both had SEC conference games last year.

 

[boxedlunch]

What is listed? The original OP had the article stating it used NCAA method

The "article" says it's the NCAA method. The "article" is wrong.

 

[UTVolCountry]

I knew TN's was up there near the top (3). Didn't know MTSU's was so bad (124)...yikes

 

[WB1214]

Georgia at #19 feels about right with Clemson and GT as NonCon games

 

[4down20]

Fair enough. Damn, apparently I get confused easily. I just don't see much difference in Arky's SOS this year (#1) Vs. Bama's SOS schedule at (#95), as they both had SEC conference games last year.

Well Arky plays Alabama and Alabama plays Arky for starters. If they played the exact same schedules otherwise, Arky by default has the tougher schedule.

Arky gets Georgia and Missouri for teams out of the west, those are some of the better East teams. Alabama plays Tennessee, a rival who has been down for years, and Florida who had an awful year last year. Arky is way better in schedule there.

And then out of conference, Arky has 2 teams I rate as being bad for the schedule. A FCS team and UAB. Really, Northern Illinois isn't a usual good team, but decent last year. I'll be surprised if they are as good this year. And then they have Texas Tech as well, who should be a bowl team at least.

I have Arky as having a 5% tougher schedule than the 2nd toughest, which is Notre Dame. That's my rankings, not the NCAA. I don't use win%.

It will change as the season goes on. Only reason it's based on last years stats right now is because we don't have stats for this season. As soon as some games get played, nobody will use last years stats.

 

[jonvi]

SU at number 8. Ugh!

 

[The Oldtimer]

Well Arky plays Alabama and Alabama plays Arky for starters. If they played the exact same schedules otherwise, Arky by default has the tougher schedule.

Arky gets Georgia and Missouri for teams out of the west, those are some of the better East teams. Alabama plays Tennessee, a rival who has been down for years, and Florida who had an awful year last year. Arky is way better in schedule there.

And then out of conference, Arky has 2 teams I rate as being bad for the schedule. A FCS team and UAB. Really, Northern Illinois isn't a usual good team, but decent last year. I'll be surprised if they are as good this year. And then they have Texas Tech as well, who should be a bowl team at least.

I have Arky as having a 5% tougher schedule than the 2nd toughest, which is Notre Dame. That's my rankings, not the NCAA. I don't use win%.

It will change as the season goes on. Only reason it's based on last years stats right now is because we don't have stats for this season. As soon as some games get played, nobody will use last years stats.

Okay!!! I was just having a hard time with the huge differential with Arky at #1 and Bama at #95.