12th spot

[seattlefan75]

I agree 100%. Problem is those guys are gone by the 5th pick. If you are picking at the end of the draft you have to get a bit more creative. Tell me what you think of this team (not trying to hijack this thread, I promise).

QB RGIII
RB Gore
RB Murray
WR Megatron
WR Marshall
WR Nicks
TE VDavis
K ?
D Chargers

thats a very good team i think RG3 is going to go fast he is a very "popular player" people are going to reach to get him. I like murray assuming dallas doesnt pass more because i believed they drafted a WR with their first pick of the draft. Gore is solid as a seahawk fan i can tell you san fran loves to run. marshall and nicks are great.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

thats a very good team i think RG3 is going to go fast he is a very "popular player" people are going to reach to get him. I like murray assuming dallas doesnt pass more because i believed they drafted a WR with their first pick of the draft. Gore is solid as a seahawk fan i can tell you san fran loves to run. marshall and nicks are great.

Drafted out of the 10 spot and ALL of the freaking top RB's were gone. hoping this give's the OP a little insight on his problem too. Thing is the guys that I drafted this team against have, well, been replying a lot in this thread and these guys IMO are the top of the top notch.

 

[wilwhite]

I dont like drafting WRs because for them to produce its a 2 way street if the QB goes down then so will the WR.

Unless it's Megatron. He kept piling on even with Shaun Hill lobbing the rock.

 

[wilwhite]

Great team, Sam - as long as you're not stuck with those guys all year long, snicker snicker.

(Says the guy who's already down to maybe 12 guys.)

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Great team, Sam - as long as you're not stuck with those guys all year long, snicker snicker.

(Says the guy who's already down to maybe 12 guys.)

Not so sure that stratagy would work in a regular draft though..........hope I don't have to find out. I don't see guys like Gore and Murray falling quite that far. Been reading on other boards that Stacy is looking pretty good and should give Richardson/Pead a run for their money.

 

[tlance]

Hey im not saying that calvin johnson isnt a great player but i wouldnt draft him based on how many receiving yards he had last season. every draft that I was in everybody wants to draft andre johnson, larry fitzgerald, julio jones, wes welker, steven jackson (when he was with the rams) as great as they are in the NFL those yards dont translate into fantasy football as good as touchdowns. fitz hasnt caught 10+ TDs in like 3 years, andre johnson has NEVER caught 10 Tds in a season, jackson only rushed for 10+ TDS in one season once. people are drafting high to get these guys because of there popularity

One of the cardinal rules in fantasy football is that TDs are impossible to project for WRs. RBs and QBs are much simpler, but there are too many variables with this stat to place any stock in it whatsoever. Look at yards, yards per reception, red zone targets, etc. TDs, however, are often outside of the player's control. If Calvin were tackled 3 times inside the 5 last year instead of 8, we would not be having this discussion.

To put this another way, Megatron was still a top 3 WR (maybe number 1 depending on scoring system) with 5 TDs. Remember 2 years ago when he had 9 TDs in his first 5 games? What if Megatron breaks out with 18 scores this year? If he is available at 12, you take him and say thank you to all of your league mates.

As for the Falcons, I have owned Matt Ryan and Julio Jones 2 years in a row. I have grown to despise Smith's ultra-conservative play calling. Every year they say they are going to open things up, but once they get the lead or go inside the 5, it was Turner up the middle for no gain.

Now that SJax is there, those no gainers are going to become TDs. He is somewhat risky because of his age and is clearly not in the RB top 10, but if I had to pick a next best, it would be him. 3 players are also going to be impacted here. Matt Ryan gets fewer 3rd and goal passing attempts, Tony Gonzalez gets fewer 1 yard play action TDs, and Matt Bryant gets fewer 20 yard FGAs. Adjust your draft sheets accordingly.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

One of the cardinal rules in fantasy football is that TDs are impossible to project for WRs. RBs and QBs are much simpler, but there are too many variables with this stat to place any stock in it whatsoever. Look at yards, yards per reception, red zone targets, etc. TDs, however, are often outside of the player's control. If Calvin were tackled 3 times inside the 5 last year instead of 8, we would not be having this discussion.

To put this another way, Megatron was still a top 3 WR (maybe number 1 depending on scoring system) with 5 TDs. Remember 2 years ago when he had 9 TDs in his first 5 games? What if Megatron breaks out with 18 scores this year? If he is available at 12, you take him and say thank you to all of your league mates.

In my money league that gives bonus for length of TD, Megatron ranked.......................2nd behind Dez. The previous year in the same league he was #1 by 30 points over Victor Cruz.........that was Cruzs' breakout when he had like 4 or 5 TD's over 80 yards........... and Megatron was still #1.

 

[Barilko]

im drafting in the 12th spot for the first time in like 13 years..

typical draft strats say go rb/rb .. say the top 11 are rb is the 12-15 rb worth getting as opposed to getting a top wr or even doubling up on the wr /wr ...

this year is hard to gauge.. very few great rb.. lots of potential wrs..

league i am in you can start 1 rb , 3 wr and a flew rb/wr/te .. plus k def and qb.. with standard scoring..

thoughts??

i'm willing to bank on S Jax this year..Atlanta loves to run in the red zone so i would go
S Jax and the best Wr available..

Good luck....

 

[averagejoe]

dblakejr, for some reason, I often end up in the bottom of the draft (and I like that spot actually). So my rule is to not have a rule - let the draft itself dictate what you do.

For example, some guys may pull the trigger on Rodgers, Brees, or Megatron in the first round. I'm sure we've all seen some strange selections. That may work to your benefit if a few more elite RB start dropping.

Even though it's mandatory to start only 1, a second elite RB could out-produce (or at least be more consistent) than a top notch WR1. And like you even pointed out...

this year is hard to gauge.. very few great rb.. lots of potential wrs..

You sound like you know what you're doing. Plan for a few scenarios and see who falls to you.

 

[Barilko]

As for the Falcons, I have owned Matt Ryan and Julio Jones 2 years in a row. I have grown to despise Smith's ultra-conservative play calling. Every year they say they are going to open things up, but once they get the lead or go inside the 5, it was Turner up the middle for no gain.

Now that SJax is there, those no gainers are going to become TDs. He is somewhat risky because of his age and is clearly not in the RB top 10, but if I had to pick a next best, it would be him. 3 players are also going to be impacted here. Matt Ryan gets fewer 3rd and goal passing attempts, Tony Gonzalez gets fewer 1 yard play action TDs, and Matt Bryant gets fewer 20 yard FGAs. Adjust your draft sheets accordingly.

Tiance luv your rational here...im all in on S Jax...