10,000 Posts for a Flyers Cup in 2019

[lasgop8]

Be really nice when we can start working them into the line up, we need 3 good solid lines.

Hopefully without any injuries we have 3 solid lines this season and ride it all the way to the cup.

 

[lasgop8]

Barry Hanrahan named Flyers’ Vice President

 

[lasgop8]

Should Flyers sign Simmonds long-term? It’s complicated

What would it take to keep him that would benefit us? How much and how many years?

This of course is if his down year was caused by injuries and not just decline because of his style of play all these years.

 

[awaz]

Should Flyers sign Simmonds long-term? It’s complicated

What would it take to keep him that would benefit us? How much and how many years?

This of course is if his down year was caused by injuries and not just decline because of his style of play all these years.

Probably going to go more in depth in a second, but I think these are the 4 most comparable guys to sign recently. All UFA's, all somewhat close to 30, all play a similar, power forward type, game.

James Neal - 30yr, 5 years, 5.75M (.35 goals/g and .64ppg over the past 3 seasons)
Evander Kane - 26yr, 7 years, 7M (.36 goals/g and .62ppg over the past 3 seasons)
TJ Oshie* - 30yr, 8 years, 5.75M (.35 goals/g and .74ppg over the past 3 seasons)
JvR - 29yr, 5 years, 7M (.39 goals/g and .71ppg over the past 3 seasons)

Wayne Simmonds - 30yr (year from now), ? years, ?M (.37 goals/g and .67ppg over the past 3 seasons)

Note: Oshie signed last summer so I ignored this season for him

So, Simmonds is 2nd in goal rate and 3rd in point rate of those guys. Age-wise he's right in there with JvR, Neal, and Oshie, little older than Kane. I think you can argue pretty easily he brings more to the locker room than Neal and JvR, but I would say Oshie is a similar guy in that category. Based on these contracts and some cap inflation..

I would say a FAIR deal for Simmonds would be 6 years, 6M.

I think we'd all agree that Simmonds at 6M in the first 2-3 years is perfect. But, it's years 4-6 that gives you pause. What does a 34, 35, 36 year old Simmonds give you? He's probably not a top PP unit guy any more and his EV production has never been great. Can he transition in to a better EV strength player, get good on the PK and play a shutdown 3rd/4th line type role effectively? Even if he can, are you willing to pay 6M for it?

 

[JBM73]

I think it comes down to a self assessment by the trade deadline as to the overall state of the team. Are the forward lines and defense pairings clicking? Has a goalie emerged? If they think they're ready to be strong Cup contenders this year and into the foreseeable future, I think you have to re-sign him and risk his contract being an anchor later on. If we find that Hart is a longer-term prospect than we're hoping and/or other significant holes have surfaced, then you move Simmonds at the deadline and wait for your prospects to hopefully emerge.

 

[lasgop8]

Probably going to go more in depth in a second, but I think these are the 4 most comparable guys to sign recently. All UFA's, all somewhat close to 30, all play a similar, power forward type, game.

James Neal - 30yr, 5 years, 5.75M (.35 goals/g and .64ppg over the past 3 seasons)
Evander Kane - 26yr, 7 years, 7M (.36 goals/g and .62ppg over the past 3 seasons)
TJ Oshie* - 30yr, 8 years, 5.75M (.35 goals/g and .74ppg over the past 3 seasons)
JvR - 29yr, 5 years, 7M (.39 goals/g and .71ppg over the past 3 seasons)

Wayne Simmonds - 30yr (year from now), ? years, ?M (.37 goals/g and .67ppg over the past 3 seasons)

Note: Oshie signed last summer so I ignored this season for him

So, Simmonds is 2nd in goal rate and 3rd in point rate of those guys. Age-wise he's right in there with JvR, Neal, and Oshie, little older than Kane. I think you can argue pretty easily he brings more to the locker room than Neal and JvR, but I would say Oshie is a similar guy in that category. Based on these contracts and some cap inflation..

I would say a FAIR deal for Simmonds would be 6 years, 6M.

I think we'd all agree that Simmonds at 6M in the first 2-3 years is perfect. But, it's years 4-6 that gives you pause. What does a 34, 35, 36 year old Simmonds give you? He's probably not a top PP unit guy any more and his EV production has never been great. Can he transition in to a better EV strength player, get good on the PK and play a shutdown 3rd/4th line type role effectively? Even if he can, are you willing to pay 6M for it?

This is some good research and i agree with it. I would think every team would have the same cautious approach about the long term contract for him. So i guess my question is- If he rebounds and is having a typical Simmonds year ,28-32 goals back on the first unit PP and hitting and fighting when necessary would we think about going 3 years at 7 million and do you think would he accept that.

 

[lasgop8]

I think it comes down to a self assessment by the trade deadline as to the overall state of the team. Are the forward lines and defense pairings clicking? Has a goalie emerged? If they think they're ready to be strong Cup contenders this year and into the foreseeable future, I think you have to re-sign him and risk his contract being an anchor later on. If we find that Hart is a longer-term prospect than we're hoping and/or other significant holes have surfaced, then you move Simmonds at the deadline and wait for your prospects to hopefully emerge.

Like you said i think his contract will come down to how he is performing during the year right up until trade deadline as to how we approach his situation. The thing i dont want to do is lose him for nothing over next summer.

 

[awaz]

This is some good research and i agree with it. I would think every team would have the same cautious approach about the long term contract for him. So i guess my question is- If he rebounds and is having a typical Simmonds year ,28-32 goals back on the first unit PP and hitting and fighting when necessary would we think about going 3 years at 7 million and do you think would he accept that.

I would do 3 years at 7M. I think the Flyers look pretty good cap space wise in those years, and I think Simmonds is a productive member of the team for 3 more years.

I think Simmonds will have more lucrative offers though if he wants to take them. I think he can easily get 5 years from someone, at least 5.75 (Neal's deal), which is 28.75M guaranteed instead of 21M.

 

[Maverick426h]

I would do 3 years at 7M. I think the Flyers look pretty good cap space wise in those years, and I think Simmonds is a productive member of the team for 3 more years.

I think Simmonds will have more lucrative offers though if he wants to take them. I think he can easily get 5 years from someone, at least 5.75 (Neal's deal), which is 28.75M guaranteed instead of 21M.

It's a tough decision. He's one of the team leaders, but he also just played injured for an entire season and his career -46 is concerning. He is well worth the money if he's a healthy, 30-30-60 guy that can still bang bodies, intimidate and lead, but for how much longer can he do all of that? Three years is pretty safe. I don't like shelling out $7 million, but we would have the cap space, easily, and then some.

If he gets injured again this coming season or is slumping, that will potentially change things. You also have to wonder what his future role will be. I don't think he's scoring his usual 30 from the third line. That would be pretty crazy. So, you're going to pay a guy like that $7 million per? I don't know.

 

[Chris p Bacon]

Hopefully without any injuries we have 3 solid lines this season and ride it all the way to the cup.

That would be so nice, healthy teams seem to do the best in the playoffs lol.

 

[awaz]

I think it comes down to what you think the Flyers situation will be in 3 years. So what does the Flyers cap situation look like 3 years from now? These guys are likely still on the team:

Giroux - 8.275
Voracek - 8.25
JvR - 7
Couturier - 4.3 (god what a steal)
Ghost - 4.5 (see above)
Patrick - will be RFA in 3 years. I say they give him term as the future 1C. Draisatl I think is a decent comparable (RFA C signed with term) at 8 years 8.5M. Counting for inflation, maybe 8 years, 9M for Patrick? If he progresses as we all hope. Maybe a mediocre year 1 brings it down to 8 years 8M.
Provorov - I say they sign him to an 8 year - 8.5M deal. Basing this off Ekblad's signing, as a RFA, 2 years ago (8 years 7.5M).
Sanheim - RFA next year. I think you could try to sign him to a 'Ghost' like contract. Inflation, plus 1st round pick pedigree probably boosts it a bit. Maybe 6 years 5.5M?
Konecny - RFA next year. I think he's a decent 'bridge contract' guy. Sign him for 23 years, still RFA at the end of it (will be 25 before UFA status), but a relatively cheap contract. Hertl and Niderreiter's second contracts seem decent comparables (2x3, 3x2.7). Adding for inflation, say you give him 3x3.2.

So that's 57.5M for your best 6 forwards and top 3 dmen. Projecting out 3 more years, cap is probably 90-91M. So you've got 32.5M to spend on your bottom 6 forwards, bottom 3 dmen, and 2 goalies. About 3M per guy if you average it out.

If Simmonds is sucking up 6 of that, you've got 2.6M to spend on each guy after that.

You've got some filled out with ELC's potentially. Frost, Ratcliffe, O'Brien, Farabee all conceivably could be ELC guys on the squad by then. So that takes some of the burden off as they'd be less than 1M each, and probably good. Add those 4 guys and Simmonds, you've got 22.5 left for 1F, 3D, 2G.

Scrap heap for your 12th forward and backup goalie. 19M for 3D and a starting goalie.

I'm going to say Myers takes the #4 d spot by then. Say he gets a taste this year, then has a good year next year before needing a new contract. Wouldn't expect him to make more than 4M per. 15M for 2D and a starting goalie.

Let's say you can get by spending 6M total for a decent 3rd pair. 9M for a goalie and scratches.

Goalie, hopefully is Hart. Have to re-sign him that year, but he'll be an RFA. Bob got a 2 year bridge deal from CBJ, 5.6M. So you should be able to bridge hart around 6, 6.5M if he's good.

3M in wiggle room. So you could probably conceivably do it. Granted I did make a mistake, Frost, if he makes the team this year or next year would need to be re-signed before year 3 of the Simmonds deal. But, it is conceivable for year 3 of Simmonds. BUT, only because you fill out your bottom 6 with ELC guys. And if you basically don't add anyone other than your prospects. Those next couple years are the pinch point. If Frost, Ratcliffe, O'Brien, and Farabee are having good seasons, playing at a top 6 caliber as 22-23 year olds, do you really want the Simmonds contract preventing you from keeping those guys?

Obviously all theoretical and it could get blown up with a trade, or a new CBA, or compliance buyouts. But that's essentially how I see the Simmonds decision shaking out.

 

[awaz]

Hmm. Actually shifted all of that off by a season. Damn. Giroux and Couturier would both be UFA at the end of Simmonds' hypothetical 3rd year of his new contract. So that's a major wrench in a long post

 

[awaz]

End of the day, I don't think they can afford to go more than 3 years on Simmonds unless he wants like 8 years at 3M. Which would be odd I think.

I'd assess things at the deadline. Trade him or keep him and lose for nothing depending on where they are in the standings. If somehow they're getting good goaltending, decent enough PK'ing, and the offense is blowing the doors off, make a run and lose him for nothing.

If they're middling on the playoff cusp, trade him.

I honestly just don't see an avenue to a mutually agreeable contract extension. But maybe Hexy pulls one out of a hat and gets him to a 3x7 or something like it.

 

[chy1127]

Hagg signed. 2 years - $2.3 mill. for an average of $1.15 mill.

 

[Maverick426h]

End of the day, I don't think they can afford to go more than 3 years on Simmonds unless he wants like 8 years at 3M. Which would be odd I think.

I'd assess things at the deadline. Trade him or keep him and lose for nothing depending on where they are in the standings. If somehow they're getting good goaltending, decent enough PK'ing, and the offense is blowing the doors off, make a run and lose him for nothing.

If they're middling on the playoff cusp, trade him.

I honestly just don't see an avenue to a mutually agreeable contract extension. But maybe Hexy pulls one out of a hat and gets him to a 3x7 or something like it.

I don't think Hexy gives him that much money, despite having plenty of cap space, it may set a future precedent. That and if we like our incoming prospects a great deal, perhaps he likes their speed, skill and potential a little more than what we know Simmonds brings to the table. And again, that's a lot of money for a winger you assume is on the third line.

If he remains one of the leaders, top power play guys and top penalty killers, then he's well worth the money, for sure.

 

[Chris p Bacon]

Hagg signed. 2 years - $2.3 mill. for an average of $1.15 mill.

This is a great signing. By the time his contract ends we'll know what he's about for sure,

 

[lasgop8]

Hmm. Actually shifted all of that off by a season. Damn. Giroux and Couturier would both be UFA at the end of Simmonds' hypothetical 3rd year of his new contract. So that's a major wrench in a long post

Hate when that happens. Since you took the time to write all of that out i will make a comment on the contract figures. One figure stuck out to me and it was the 7 million JVR is getting. A healthy Simmonds is a better all around player than JVR and quite possibly a better offensive player than JVR. So my question is why did you go to all this trouble to make a case that Simmonds will be preventing us from keeping Frost, Ratcliffe, O'Brien, and Farabee and not make a case that JVR would be preventing us from keeping them.

 

[lasgop8]

Hagg signed. 2 years - $2.3 mill. for an average of $1.15 mill.

Like the player and like the deal.

 

[lasgop8]

End of the day, I don't think they can afford to go more than 3 years on Simmonds unless he wants like 8 years at 3M. Which would be odd I think.

I'd assess things at the deadline. Trade him or keep him and lose for nothing depending on where they are in the standings. If somehow they're getting good goaltending, decent enough PK'ing, and the offense is blowing the doors off, make a run and lose him for nothing.

If they're middling on the playoff cusp, trade him.

I honestly just don't see an avenue to a mutually agreeable contract extension. But maybe Hexy pulls one out of a hat and gets him to a 3x7 or something like it.

I will agree to asses things at the deadline but i cant agree to losing him for nothing.

 

[lasgop8]

Maksim Sushko Could Be 4th-Round Find for Flyers

I forgot who had a post about this kid a long time ago but this kid is living up to their dream so far.