Pre-Preseason Playoff Predictions

DirtDirtDirt said:

Andy Reid was fired?

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What doesn’t fire Reid makes him skronger

There is A Moose at 3rd said:

What doesn’t fire Reid makes him skronger

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Reid is great at developing QBs. He flipped AJ Feeley for a 2nd was sooooo close to getting a top 5 pick for... why can’t i remember his name. The guy we traded to the Cards for a 2nd and the pro bowl CB. Oh wait... Kevin Kolb. Reid has his flaws but his QBs always play great

There is A Moose at 3rd said:

What doesn’t fire Reid makes him skronger

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Much stronger in the regular season, not so much in the playoffs.

jerseyhawksfan79 said:

Much stronger in the regular season, not so much in the playoffs.

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Meeeeehhhhh

Get a QB and I betcha that playoff record magically turns around real quick. You don't need to be a good coach to win in the playoffs to begin with. People vastly overrate the playoffs in general. This is not the NBA or even NHL.

There is A Moose at 3rd said:

Meeeeehhhhh

Get a QB and I betcha that playoff record magically turns around real quick. You don't need to be a good coach to win in the playoffs to begin with.

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Reid had a borderline HoF QB and a consistent top 5 defense and managed a 1-4 NFCCG favored in 4 of those 5 games. Maybe Mahomes will turn it around for Reid, but it's doubtful. He is who he is, a very good regular season coach but average at best in post season.

jerseyhawksfan79 said:

Reid had a borderline HoF QB and a consistent top 5 defense and managed a 1-4 NFCCG favored in 4 of those 5 games. Maybe Mahomes will turn it around for Reid, but it's doubtful. He is who he is, a very good regular season coach but average at best in post season.

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See, I don't even pay attention to his postseason record. It's nonsensical. He doesn't coach any differently in the postseason and it doesn't matter diddly poo to me. His IQ doesn't drop 70 points because the calendar hits January. Most coaches playoff records take off when they have a HOF QB carrying them. Every once in a blue moon you have some generational defenses, but by in large talent wins. They are maybe 5-6 legitimately good coaches in the NFL. Dumping one because he lost with Alex Smith is insane or didn't win a SB in Philly despite otherwise having playoff success is insane; nor has the scheme gone stale in KC, in fact it's very innovative, like it did in Philly in the later years where he justifiably was fired.

Is Kubiak a good playoff coach? I wouldn't say so. Yet he won a SB his only try with the Broncos. John Fox won a good amount of playoff games, I wouldn't even consider him a good coach. The distinction between regular season and postseason is wrongheaded altogether. Lionizing coaches because of talent makes little sense. Pretty unpopular view I'd imagine, but I believe it to be more correct than not.

There was a time where Gibbs was unimpeachable, even in the GOAT conversation, and then he came back and some of the shine came off. You can't make talent produce if it doesn't exist. You can only finesse so much. You can guide a team to water, you can't make it drink.

Sums up Alex's time in the postseason as a Chief

There is A Moose at 3rd said:

See, I don't even pay attention to his postseason record. It's nonsensical. He doesn't coach any differently in the postseason and it doesn't matter diddly poo to me. His IQ doesn't drop 70 points because the calendar hits January. Most coaches playoff records take off when they have a HOF QB carrying them. Every once in a blue moon you have some generational defenses, but by in large talent wins. They are maybe 5-6 legitimately good coaches in the NFL. Dumping one because he lost with Alex Smith is insane or didn't win a SB in Philly despite otherwise having playoff success is insane; nor has the scheme gone stale in KC, in fact it's very innovative, like it did in Philly in the later years where he justifiably was fired.

Is Kubiak a good playoff coach? I wouldn't say so. Yet he won a SB his only try with the Broncos. John Fox won a good amount of playoff games, I wouldn't even consider him a good coach. The distinction between regular season and postseason is wrongheaded altogether. Lionizing coaches because of talent makes little sense. Pretty unpopular view I'd imagine, but I believe it to be more correct than not.

There was a time where Gibbs was unimpeachable and then he came back and some of the shine came off.

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The post season record his part of his body of work just like his very good regular season record. Dumping one last year is just another of many he's dumped throughout his coaching career. Kubiak might not be a good playoff coach but he did put his guys in the right situations to win one something Reid has failed at in January. John Fox is below Reid and Gibbs v2 never had a chance with Snyder running the team. I don't blame you for being up beat with the Reid/Mahomes era beginning, I just see things differently and maybe he'll prove me wrong this year or next.

jerseyhawksfan79 said:

The post season record his part of his body of work just like his very good regular season record. Dumping one last year is just another of many he's dumped throughout his coaching career. Kubiak might not be a good playoff coach but he did put his guys in the right situations to win one something Reid has failed at in January. John Fox is below Reid and Gibbs v2 never had a chance with Snyder running the team. I don't blame you for being up beat with the Reid/Mahomes era beginning, I just see things differently and maybe he'll prove me wrong this year or next.

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Keep in mind like 90% of my Mahomes post on the general board are a schtick/parody (I am not insanely delusional like I present even if I am admittedly optimistic). I am honestly not impressed by Veach's use of draft assets. Seems like a situation that can easily devolve into another 1 dimensional Chiefs outfit being a routine postseason visitor, but also a frequent early exit. Maybe I am wrong and the defense can catch up to the Offense and Special teams, but I am not confident.

As for setting up teams to succeed, I would very strongly disagree. WR's were running wide open all game vs Pittsburgh in 2016, and Alex shit the bed; I have more gifs from that game than I want to post... At some point you got to go beyond the W-L record here. Reid has almost no chance if his QB does that in a postseason game against an outfit like the Steelers or Pats. The only shitty playoff loss was the last one vs the Titans. We're talking 7-8 new starters on defense from that playoff game (Berry, Hitchens, Ford, Nnadi, Fuller, Amerson, and potentially Speaks and/or Kpass on the DL) plus a new QB .

2013 they lost to a better team and had a bunch of injuries during the game. 2015 was their only real SB shot imo and they got dealt several death blows on the injury front between Derrick Johnson, Justin Houston, Charles and eventually Ware and Maclin. Maybe could argue 2017 if they had Berry and Ford the entire year, but that's a maaaaajor stretch.

JMR said:

Probably not...unless Brady really tries to play to 50 and/or Darnold ends up being the real deal in a couple years.

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I do think Brady ends up retiring here in the next 2-3 years but that also depends on how good the Patriots are this year, in my opinion.

JMR said:

It certainly could be, but 3 teams with 11+ wins is awfully rare. Also, with your predicted records in the NFC, it looks like you are expecting them to be 20 games better than the AFC, which is also going to be very difficult. That is some serious interconference domination right there.

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Last year, the NFC South had 2 teams with 11 wins and 1 team with 10. Also last year, the NFC had 18 more wins than the AFC. NFC's 137 wins to the AFC's 119 wins. So these things almost happened last year so it is not outside the realm of possibility.

Terry Rode said:

I do think Brady ends up retiring here in the next 2-3 years but that also depends on how good the Patriots are this year, in my opinion.



Last year, the NFC South had 2 teams with 11 wins and 1 team with 10. Also last year, the NFC had 18 more wins than the AFC. NFC's 137 wins to the AFC's 119 wins. So these things almost happened last year so it is not outside the realm of possibility.

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I would be pretty surprised if that gap didn't narrow significantly with the influx of QB talent into the AFC + Health.

There is A Moose at 3rd said:

I would be pretty surprised if that gap didn't narrow significantly with the influx of QB talent into the AFC + Health.

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The influx of rookie QB talent that probably won't start more than 15 games combined all season? I don't see the gap narrowing honestly.

Yes, Luck is coming back but I don't think he's gonna be the Luck of 2013, 2014.
The rookie QBs aren't gonna have that much of an impact.
I really don't see a huge improvement for the Chiefs with Mahomes as QB.

Also have to remember Aaron Rodgers didn't play a full season last year, so the Packers didn't have as many wins as they probably should have, the Giants had a very, very, uncharacteristically bad year, the lowest win total since 1983 and Jimmy G will now start the entire season for the 49ers. There's good things happening in the AFC, but there are better things in store for the NFC this year.

Terry Rode said:

Last year, the NFC South had 2 teams with 11 wins and 1 team with 10. Also last year, the NFC had 18 more wins than the AFC. NFC's 137 wins to the AFC's 119 wins. So these things almost happened last year so it is not outside the realm of possibility.

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Right, not impossible (didnt say that)....and almost happened, which of course means it didnt happen. The current 8 division format started in 2002, and there hasnt been a season since then that had a division with 3 11+ game winners in it. Doesnt mean it will never happen, but it sure does seem to be awfully hard to do....hard enough to the point where predicting it to happen seems to be a stretch.

Terry Rode said:

The influx of rookie QB talent that probably won't start more than 15 games combined all season? I don't see the gap narrowing honestly.

Yes, Luck is coming back but I don't think he's gonna be the Luck of 2013, 2014.
The rookie QBs aren't gonna have that much of an impact.
I really don't see a huge improvement for the Chiefs with Mahomes as QB.

Also have to remember Aaron Rodgers didn't play a full season last year, so the Packers didn't have as many wins as they probably should have, the Giants had a very, very, uncharacteristically bad year, the lowest win total since 1983 and Jimmy G will now start the entire season for the 49ers. There's good things happening in the AFC, but there are better things in store for the NFC this year.

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Watson and Mahomes alone can probably can account for 10-15 plus more games than they collectively played last year. Add in opportune situations in Cleveland and Baltimore + Tannehill returning in Miami and the level of QB play in the AFC seems likely to go up significantly; even if we think Darnold doesn't play, with Teddy Bridgewater starting that too is an upgrade. Then there's Indy...

Also I would say the Giants plain ole suck

Terry Rode said:

The influx of rookie QB talent that probably won't start more than 15 games combined all season? I don't see the gap narrowing honestly.

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Rookie QBs start all of the time.

That said, I don't think we are going to see a huge narrowing of the gap but maybe a slight one. There is no way the Browns, Texans and Broncos are going to be as bad as they were last year. If Luck plays then throw in the Colts. The question becomes to they get all of their wins from the AFC or do they steal some from the NFC as well?

If Mariota gets better then the Titans could become a contender. If good Bortles shows up then they're a contender. If the Raider and Chiefs defense gets better then they'll improve.

There will still be a gap but I think it will narrow.

There is A Moose at 3rd said:

See, I don't even pay attention to his postseason record. It's nonsensical. He doesn't coach any differently in the postseason and it doesn't matter diddly poo to me. His IQ doesn't drop 70 points because the calendar hits January. Most coaches playoff records take off when they have a HOF QB carrying them. Every once in a blue moon you have some generational defenses, but by in large talent wins. They are maybe 5-6 legitimately good coaches in the NFL. Dumping one because he lost with Alex Smith is insane or didn't win a SB in Philly despite otherwise having playoff success is insane; nor has the scheme gone stale in KC, in fact it's very innovative, like it did in Philly in the later years where he justifiably was fired.

Is Kubiak a good playoff coach? I wouldn't say so. Yet he won a SB his only try with the Broncos. John Fox won a good amount of playoff games, I wouldn't even consider him a good coach. The distinction between regular season and postseason is wrongheaded altogether. Lionizing coaches because of talent makes little sense. Pretty unpopular view I'd imagine, but I believe it to be more correct than not.

There was a time where Gibbs was unimpeachable, even in the GOAT conversation, and then he came back and some of the shine came off. You can't make talent produce if it doesn't exist. You can only finesse so much. You can guide a team to water, you can't make it drink.

Sums up Alex's time in the postseason as a Chief

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I like Alex Smith he is a good QB but he does have his limits. Would not be surprised if his performance drops from last year. I think there are some people who overrate him on this board

There is A Moose at 3rd said:

Watson and Mahomes alone can probably can account for 10-15 plus more games than they collectively played last year. Add in opportune situations in Cleveland and Baltimore + Tannehill returning in Miami and the level of QB play in the AFC seems likely to go up significantly; even if we think Darnold doesn't play, with Teddy Bridgewater starting that too is an upgrade. Then there's Indy...

Also I would say the Giants plain ole suck

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I seem to think there was a huge opportune situation in Cleveland as well last year and we see how that turned out. I don't see Lamar Jackson being a factor in Baltimore unless Flacco gets hurt badly and early. I have 0 confidence in Ryan Tannehill whatsoever. I believe 2 years ago making the playoffs was a fluke. I agree with Watson and Mahomes, however I would argue that Mahomes being, technically, a rookie starter, doesn't bode well for the Chiefs and Watson is coming off of a leg injury and that Texans team did not improve at all on offense. All they did was claim Sammie Coates off of waivers which does nothing for that team. If you say that the Giants plain ole suck, then you have to say the same about the Jets. No matter who is at the QB spot, you either have a career backup in McCown who won 5 games last year, a rookie USC QB which has never gone well, Bridgewater who has played very limited regular season football since having a horrendous injury 2 years ago, and Hackenberg who has thrown 22 passes in 2 years. Andrew Luck coming back to Indy immediately gives them at least 3-4 more wins than last year but you still have to factor in a healthy Aaron Rodgers give the Packers 4-5 more wins, Jimmy G in San Fran gives them, for arguments sake, 2-3 more wins, the Giants' season last year was a fluke so give them 3-4 more wins. Right there is your 20 win margin.

To add to your argument, Keenum in Denver and Carr in Oakland, I think, give their respective teams more wins this year. But I still think the NFC is that much superior than the AFC. NFC had 18 wins more than the AFC last year, with a healthy Rodgers, Jimmy G in San Fran and the Giants not having a fluke-like bad season, I can easily see the NFC having 20+ more wins than the AFC. Not to mention, the QB play in the NFC is far superior than the QB play in the AFC. Aside from the Steelers and Patriots (barring few instances), what team can say they are completely secure in their QB roster?

There is A Moose at 3rd said:

What doesn’t fire Reid makes him skronger

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you mean fatter...

jerseyhawksfan79 said:

Reid had a borderline HoF QB and a consistent top 5 defense and managed a 1-4 NFCCG favored in 4 of those 5 games. Maybe Mahomes will turn it around for Reid, but it's doubtful. He is who he is, a very good regular season coach but average at best in post season.

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stop digging the knife in...

LOL at people still thinking Andy Reid is something his record shows is false.

Clayton said:

Rookie QBs start all of the time.

That said, I don't think we are going to see a huge narrowing of the gap but maybe a slight one. There is no way the Browns, Texans and Broncos are going to be as bad as they were last year. If Luck plays then throw in the Colts. The question becomes to they get all of their wins from the AFC or do they steal some from the NFC as well?

If Mariota gets better then the Titans could become a contender. If good Bortles shows up then they're a contender. If the Raider and Chiefs defense gets better then they'll improve.

There will still be a gap but I think it will narrow.

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You could say the same for the QBs in the NFC. A healthy Rodgers give Green Bay at least 3 more wins over last year right? Jimmy G in San Fran gets them maybe 7 wins? What if good Eli shows up for the Giants? What if Russell Wilson gets back to Super Bowl caliber play? What if Trubisky surprises some and leads the Bears to 6 or 7 wins? Kirk Cousins actually has a team around him now, can the Vikings be lethal in the NFC? Cam has a revamped offense, could this be another MVP season?

The only teams I can realistically see improving over last year are the Broncos, Colts, Browns and Raiders and the only reason I add the Browns in there is because there's no way they go winless in 2 straight seasons. I see the addition of a healthy Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay sorta making up for the wins from Luck, I see the Giants winning alot more than 3 games because last year was just a fluke year and that cancels out the wins that Keenum might give Denver, Cousins in Minnesota might actually be dangerous and then you have what we've seen from Jimmy G in San Fran possibly being just a peak of what is to come this year. It's gonna be an interesting year no matter what.