Should I do this trade?

[MilkSpiller22]

Here's a dealio that I've vacillating on...

I can start two of the following (I've included fantasy points per start based on this league's scoring):

Clayton Kershaw - (21.3 FP/GS) - @ TOR
Bartolo Colon - (12.6 FP/GS) - Vs ATL, @ SDP
Chris Tillman - (12.3 FP/GS) - Vs NYY, Vs OAK

Hard to bench Kershaw, but he's got one start and it's against TOR, although TOR's offense has been pretty average so far.

Colon has two starts against the two worst offenses in baseball (measured by OPS), but his average points per start doubled is only four points more than Kershaw's average for one.

Tillman has two starts; one against the Yankees who've sucked ass at the dish, and one against OAK, who've been slightly below average. His FP/GS doubled is also about four points more than Kershaw's single.

I guess I'm leaning Kershaw and Colon. What do you fuckers think?

I don't care if those 2 outperform Kershaw this week, you HAVE to start him always...

I agree with Colon over Tillman

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

An interesting aside:

One league I'm in has 11 teams. Instead of a bye week, we opted that one team a week would face the league average score, so total points scored divided by 11.

As of this morning, the league average team is 4-0 and in sole position of first place. . .

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I don't care if those 2 outperform Kershaw this week, you HAVE to start him always...

What makes you say that?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

An interesting aside:

One league I'm in has 11 teams. Instead of a bye week, we opted that one team a week would face the league average score, so total points scored divided by 11.

As of this morning, the league average team is 4-0 and in sole position of first place. . .

Are any of the teams that faced the league average team over 500??

 

[Chef99]

I agree with Colon over Tillman

Bartolo says: yer damn skippy!

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Are any of the teams that faced the league average team over 500??

One is. Here are the records of the four teams that have lost to the average team:

3-1
2-2
1-3
0-4

Total: 6-10

 

[MilkSpiller22]

What makes you say that?

Even though Toronto is a tough matchup for anyone as they are strike out very little for such a power offense... and is probably the best offense in baseball, Kershaw is the only pitcher of those 3 that has the potential to pitch a complete game... and is the pitcher most likely to get a win solely because he goes deeper than the other 2...

Kershaw has the highest potential to go over his seasonal average... and then 2 starts from any of the other 2 should not equal one start...

Basically, you don't want to bench your stud and have him be stud like on the bench... That will make you feel dumb and pissed off...

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Kershaw has the highest potential to go over his seasonal average... and then 2 starts from any of the other 2 should not equal one start...

I don't really agree with that. They're averages.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Basically, you don't want to bench your stud and have him be stud like on the bench... That will make you feel dumb and pissed off...

Personally, I don't give a shit about who my stud is. I'm benching Bumgarner, who's also a stud. I want to start who I think will give the most points.

It's a tough call either way and I'm not going to feel dumb no matter what happens. Flip side of what you're saying is that Kershaw gets hit and/or gets little run support and takes the loss, while Tillman hits his average numbers and puts up 25+ points. I'll be pissed off then too.

I guess what I'm saying is, I don't care who has the biggest name, I want the most points.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Kershaw is the only pitcher of those 3 that has the potential to pitch a complete game... and is the pitcher most likely to get a win solely because he goes deeper than the other 2...

I like these points.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Personally, I don't give a shit about who my stud is. I'm benching Bumgarner, who's also a stud. I want to start who I think will give the most points.

It's a tough call either way and I'm not going to feel dumb no matter what happens. Flip side of what you're saying is that Kershaw gets hit and/or gets little run support and takes the loss, while Tillman hits his average numbers and puts up 25+ points. I'll be pissed off then too.

I guess what I'm saying is, I don't care who has the biggest name, I want the most points.

I understand what you are saying... its kind of what I hate most about H2H points... But that is irrelevant...

I guess it depends on whether you think you need the points or not... an average pitcher who has a 2 start week with good matchups is probably safer, and has a higher floor, than a Stud with one start and a bad matchup but he certainly has a much lower Ceiling than the stud...

But I see Kershaw's bad outing to be 6 innings,4Ks, 4 runs, 12(H+BB), and a loss...

How many points would that get??

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

But I see Kershaw's bad outing to be 6 innings,4Ks, 4 runs, 12(H+BB), and a loss...

How many points would that get??

6 points.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

6 points.

so would you agree with me then that 6 points is Kershaw's projected BAD game(strangely worded question)...

Tillman, could easily go in the negatives(assuming you have negatives)

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I guess it depends on whether you think you need the points or not...

I'm in 2nd place in the league, my record is 3-1 and I'm the overall points leader.

My opponent is in 1st place, is 4-0 and 10 points behind me in total points.

I need the points.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

so would you agree with me then that 6 points is Kershaw's projected BAD game(strangely worded question)...

Tillman, could easily go in the negatives(assuming you have negatives)

Granted, it's a small sample, but in Tillman's five starts this year, he hasn't gone negative once. In fact, remove his one loss in TEX, where he netted zero points, he's averaged 15.2 FP/GS.

Here's what he's scored per start:

8
17.5
0
11
25

Conversely, here are Kershaw's six starts:

25.5
15
20.5
21
12.5
33.5

If Tillman can match his most recent two points totals, he'd put in better than Kershaw's best start, but not by much.

Tillman's starts are at home, while Kershaw's are on the opposite side of the continent. I don't know what that means.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

so would you agree with me then that 6 points is Kershaw's projected BAD game(strangely worded question)...

Yeah, that'd be a REALLY bad game for Kershaw. MIA scored 5 ER on him last week, he took the loss and still scored 12.5.

You'd have to go back to May 17th. 2014 to find a game where Kershaw only K'ed 4 or less batters.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Colon has nice matchups but they actually have hit him well recently. I'd stay away.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Colon has nice matchups but they actually have hit him well recently. I'd stay away.

Points per start this year:

PHI - 12
CLE - 17
PHI - 10
CIN - 8.5

I see your point, but still, we're talking about complete shit offenses, ATL and SDP. They've combined for a slash line of:

.231/.297/.323/.620

 

[TKOSpikes]

Points per start this year:

PHI - 12
CLE - 17
PHI - 10
CIN - 8.5

I see your point, but still, we're talking about complete shit offenses, ATL and SDP. They've combined for a slash line of:

.231/.297/.323/.620

I hear ya. Almost too good to pass up.... or too good to be true.

 

[TKOSpikes]

@SlinkyRedfoot - I just said that about Colon because I knew you'd do the opposite!