2016 Rosterbation

[MarcoPolo]

As for Moreno not getting selected last year, remember that if you take a player in the major league portion of the draft, that player must be on the 25 man roster the entire season, and actually on the ACTIVE roster (non-DL) for something like 100 games. Therefore, typically, players in A+ or lower are pretty safe from this thing. Now that Moreno has a decent year in AA under his belt, I think he is a potential target this year. However, with the Giants depth in the infield, maybe they risk losing him to make sure they protect higher-valued players (like Jacob Smith, whom I omitted from my lists)

First, the major league portion of the rule 5 draft :
A player must remain on the majors league roster all season or be offered back to his old team. It is OK if he is on the DL, they don't *automatically* lose him. BUT, if a player selected in the Rule 5 draft spends less than 90 days on the active Major League roster because he is on the DL, he also must remain on the Major League roster the next season until he has a total of 90 days on the MLB active roster.

Now, the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft :
There are two minor-league phases. In the Triple-A phase, a player not protected on his club’s 40-man roster or 38-man Triple-A reserve list may be selected for $12,000. In the AA phase, a player not protected on his club’s 40-man roster, 38-man Triple-A reserve list or 37-man Double-A reserve list may be selected for $4,000. A player selected in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft is not required to play the next season with his drafting club at the higher organizational level.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Oh, I should have added (it seems pretty obvious when you've read the rules, but ...) : so a player in A level during the current season if moved to AA and placed on the 37-man Double-A reserve list can't be drafted during the AA phase, so he wouldn't need to be added to the 40-man to be protected. He *would* be eligible to be grabbed during the AAA phase though. SO, if you have guys in A who are studs, and you think are maybe a couple years away from the majors you should really put them on the 40-man. Guys that were in A or AA that *could* turn out to be good/are on the edge, and probably many years away, you bump up a level (or two) and add to a minor-league reserve list to protect them.

All this junk needs to be done around/before November 20.

 

[LHG]

Currently, the team has 46 players between the 40 man roster and the 6 players on the 60 day disabled list.

Out of those 48 players, 11 of them will be free agents: Affeldt, Aoki, Byrd, Casilla, de Aza, Frandsen, Hudson, Leake, Lincecum, Scutaro and Vogelsong.

Of the 11 free agents, 3 will probably retire (Affeldt, Hudson and Scutaro). Another two will most likely have options vesting (Byrd, Casilla), putting them back on the 40 man roster. Let's count the third pending option (Aoki), to put the 40 man roster at the maximum.

From what I can tell, the following minor leagues are eligible to be drafted in the Rule 5 draft in December: Bryce Bandilla, rp; Joe Biagini, sp; Ty Blach, sp; Clayton Blackburn, sp; Kyle Crick, rp; Carlos Diaz, rp; E.J. Encinosa, rp; Ian Gardeck, rp; Chris Johnson, sp; Joseph Kurrasch, sp; Andrew Leenhouts, sp; Matt Lujan, sp; Phil McCormick, rp; Adalberto Mejia, sp; Tyler Mizenko, rp; Reyes Moronta, rp; Steven Okert, rp; Randy Ortiz, rp; Eury Sanchez, rp; Jacob Smith, rp; Jack Snodgrass, sp; Jeff Soptic, rp; Chris Stratton, sp; Leo Rojas, c; Ben Turner, c; Mitchell Delfino, 3rd; Rando Moreno, ss; Ricky Oropesa, 1st; John Polonius, 2nd; Travious Relaford, ss; Julio Pena, of

I've bolded the ones I think are most likely to get protected. The position player group is pretty weak (and thin in numbers). The pitchers, however, make for some interesting decisions. If all the ones I've listed are going to be needed protection (I may have calculated wrong, not sure), that leaves anywhere between 4 to 8 spots needing clearance on the 40 man roster.

Thus, I think the following are most likely to get removed from the 40 man roster: Mike Broadway, rp; Brett Bochy, rp; Cory Gearrin, rp; Cody Hall, rp; Derek Law, rp; Trevor Brown, c; Hector Sanchez, c; Jackson Williams, c; Ehire Adrianza, ss; Nick Noonan, 2nd; Juan Perez, of

I've bolded those most likely to be a victim of removal. That only brings half of the guys I think the Giants would most likely be added and does not allow for room to sign any major league free agents or add anyone from the Rule 5 draft (which is highly unlikely anyway). Petit could well be non-tendered but I cannot really see anyone else non tendered.

The Giants are going to have to make some hard decisions on a lot of guys in the system.

I did miss a few names on my initial list of potentially eligible Rule 5 players (either for big league or minor league phases). Here's the updated list:
Martin Agosta, sp; Bryce Bandilla, rp; Joe Biagini, sp; Ty Blach, sp; Clayton Blackburn, sp; Kyle Crick, rp; Carlos Diaz, rp; E.J. Encinosa, rp; Jason Forjet, sp; Ian Gardeck, rp; Chris Johnson, sp; Joseph Kurrasch, sp; Andrew Leenhouts, sp; Jarret Leverett, rp; Matt Lujan, sp; Phil McCormick, rp; Adalberto Mejia, sp; Tyler Mizenko, rp; Reyes Moronta, rp; Steven Okert, rp; Randy Ortiz, rp; Eury Sanchez, rp; Jacob Smith, rp; Jack Snodgrass, sp; Jeff Soptic, rp; Chris Stratton, sp; Miguel Gomez, c; Travis Higgs, c; Leo Rojas, c; Ben Turner, c; Mitchell Delfino, 3rd; Rando Moreno, ss; Ricky Oropesa, 1st; John Polonius, 2nd; Travious Relaford, ss; Andrew Cain, of; Julio Pena, of

 

[SFGRTB]

Bobby Evans spoke today and said "We are looking at a rise in payroll"

Mentioned there's "at least one hole in the rotation", and later said "there could be more (holes in the rotation)". This seems to have been referring to Chris Heston not being guaranteed a spot.

He mentioned the international free agent market multiple times, which is interesting. Giants just locked down Eddy Julio Martinez, but since they are facing the penalty for the next 2 periods in the INTL FA market, they could go all out in this one. There's a Japanese pitcher, Kenta Maeda, who could be a target that could step right into the majors (wasn't mentioned by Evans), and other pitchers in Latin America.

Evans talked about Clayton Blackburn as a guy who preformed well this year. Also said it's going to be a close call about bringing back Nori Aoki.

 

[calsnowskier]

Bobby Evans spoke today and said "We are looking at a rise in payroll"

Mentioned there's "at least one hole in the rotation", and later said "there could be more (holes in the rotation)". This seems to have been referring to Chris Heston not being guaranteed a spot.

He mentioned the international free agent market multiple times, which is interesting. Giants just locked down Eddy Julio Martinez, but since they are facing the penalty for the next 2 periods in the INTL FA market, they could go all out in this one. There's a Japanese pitcher, Kenta Maeda, who could be a target that could step right into the majors (wasn't mentioned by Evans), and other pitchers in Latin America.

Evans talked about Clayton Blackburn as a guy who preformed well this year. Also said it's going to be a close call about bringing back Nori Aoki.

If my understanding is accurate, the Giants will only be blocked out of the AMATEUR International Free Agent market. Not the regular International Free Agent market.

Not to take anything away from your speculation about Maeda. I know nothing about him, and I do believe the Giants will be going for broke this year to bring in at least one more Ace and a 2/3 as well (this spot is likely Leake).

 

[SFGRTB]

I should provide more context on Blackburn, said he's a guy who on the top of their minds for guys who can compete for spots in the rotation next year.

 

[SFGRTB]

If my understanding is accurate, the Giants will only be blocked out of the AMATEUR International Free Agent market. Not the regular International Free Agent market.

Not to take anything away from your speculation about Maeda. I know nothing about him, and I do believe the Giants will be going for broke this year to bring in at least one more Ace and a 2/3 as well (this spot is likely Leake).

You're right.

So, as it stands, Bobby Evans mentioned the INTL FA market in a broad stroke. Look for the Giants to be in play in all facets. The amateur INTL market because they are facing the penalty, and the Japanese/Latin markets because they won't have to give up draft picks for potential ML ready players.

 

[tzill]

If my understanding is accurate, the Giants will only be blocked out of the AMATEUR International Free Agent market. Not the regular International Free Agent market.

Not to take anything away from your speculation about Maeda. I know nothing about him, and I do believe the Giants will be going for broke this year to bring in at least one more Ace and a 2/3 as well (this spot is likely Leake).

I think that's exactly how they'll play it. Apparently, Aoki is no lock to have his option picked up. That doesn't make sense to me since he's a) a great fit in the clubhouse and b) a near all star when healthy.

That said, "sources close to the Giants" say Leake is a near lock to come back and the Giants are going to go after Greinke hard.

This may be the most fun offseason in quite a while. Assuming they bring back Leake and Aoki and Byrd, there are really only two spots open on the club: one SP and one long reliever.

 

[calsnowskier]

The only prob I have with the Giants going after Greinke is that he will be QO protected.

That would mean the dogs would likely swap Greinke for Price and gain a sandwich pick in the process while the Giants lose a 1st rounder.

The dogs win that swap.

 

[tzill]

The only prob I have with the Giants going after Greinke is that he will be QO protected.

That would mean the dogs would likely swap Greinke for Price and gain a sandwich pick in the process while the Giants lose a 1st rounder.

The dogs win that swap.

If they get Price, and even then Price is no Greinke. Price is great, but Greinke is a HOFer. Add in a sandwich pick which results in a ML player, what, 20% of the time....I'm not sure the doyers win that swap.

 

[calsnowskier]

If they get Price, and even then Price is no Greinke. Price is great, but Greinke is a HOFer. Add in a sandwich pick which results in a ML player, what, 20% of the time....I'm not sure the doyers win that swap.

I think you may be under-valuing Price. He will potentially be winning his second CY this year just like Greinke (Granted, I would vote Keuchel, but it is a 2-man race in the AL this year).

I think both are on HOF paths at this point.

It isnt JUST that the dogs would get a sammich. The Giants would be losing their #1.

 

[tzill]

I think you may be under-valuing Price. He will potentially be winning his second CY this year just like Greinke (Granted, I would vote Keuchel, but it is a 2-man race in the AL this year).

I think both are on HOF paths at this point.

It isnt JUST that the dogs would get a sammich. The Giants would be losing their #1.

Maybe, but I think you're undervaluing Greinke.

Last 3 years for each
Price -- ERA+ -- 161, 115, 115
Greinke -- 225, 129, 135
Price -- WAR -- 5.9, 4.6, 2.8
Greinke -- 9.3, 4.3, 3.9

So, in the last three years, Price has been All-Star, borderline AS, good
Greinke has been Historic, All-Star, All-Star.

CY are nice, but the stats are what sway me. BTW, if Greinke DOESN'T win the CY it's a travshamockery

 

[tzill]

MLBTR came out with their projected Arb figures for 2016. Of note (Name, service time, projected arb):

• Yusmeiro Petit (5.016) – $2.4MM
• Brandon Belt (4.128) – $6.2MM
• Brandon Crawford (4.094) – $5.7MM
• Hector Sanchez (3.113) – $900K
• George Kontos (2.171) – $1.0MM

I think Petit is non-tendered, the Brandons are signed to 4/5 year deals, Sanchez and Kontos are signed to one year deals before the hearing at close to the above.

 

[calsnowskier]

I just dont see the logic in locking down Belt. We have Posey who needs to play somewhere and potentially Shaw coming up the pipes (HUGE extrapolation, granted). And Belt is good, but he isnt the type of player that you bend over backwards for. There are similar players on the FA market every year that can be had on 1-year deals worth 6-8M.

I am not sure there is much point in locking up Sanchez either. Susac will be the primary backup / semi-starter and Brown has shown to be a VERY capable catcher as well. Sanchez might be able to be had on a minor league contract.

I think you are probably right about Petit. I hate to see him go, though. He has real value. But he is going to be a roster crunch casualty, I suspect.

Kontos and Craw are two guys who need to be locked up. 2 years-ish for Kontos. 3 or 4 for Craw.

 

[LHG]

I just dont see the logic in locking down Belt. We have Posey who needs to play somewhere and potentially Shaw coming up the pipes (HUGE extrapolation, granted). And Belt is good, but he isnt the type of player that you bend over backwards for. There are similar players on the FA market every year that can be had on 1-year deals worth 6-8M.

I am not sure there is much point in locking up Sanchez either. Susac will be the primary backup / semi-starter and Brown has shown to be a VERY capable catcher as well. Sanchez might be able to be had on a minor league contract.

I think you are probably right about Petit. I hate to see him go, though. He has real value. But he is going to be a roster crunch casualty, I suspect.

Kontos and Craw are two guys who need to be locked up. 2 years-ish for Kontos. 3 or 4 for Craw.

I think you may be undervaluing Belt a bit. If Posey needs to move to 1st base soon, I'm for letting Belt walk but if Posey stays behind the plate for many years, then I think its worth Belt being locked up. Belt is a top 10 1st baseman. Guys in that tier are not available on the FA market every year on 1 year deals.

As for Sanchez, I agree that he isn't as available on the roster that he used to be. I wonder if the Giants will try to trade him before arbitration to get someone back. Otherwise, I wouldn't be too surprised if both he and Petit are non-tendered. However, seeing multiple guys non-tendered seems a little un-Giant like.

 

[calsnowskier]

Like I said, Belt is good. I just dont want to lock ourselves into a 4-5 year deal with an upper-mid-level 1B. 1B is a position where you can put a Mike Morse or Pat Burrell or Aubrey Huff. Last season alone, Morse and LaRoche were both available in free agency. While I would prefer to have Belt over either of them, and would be fine paying more for Belt than either of them, I dont want to pay more for Belt AND give him a half-decade deal just to get some additional performance. Belt is not a game-breaking player, IMHO.

I have no prob giving that kind of commitment to Crawford. I had no prob giving that kind of commitment to Pence. I had no prob giving that kind of commitment to Posey.

I have a prob giving that kind of commitment to Belt.

 

[tzill]

I just dont see the logic in locking down Belt. We have Posey who needs to play somewhere and potentially Shaw coming up the pipes (HUGE extrapolation, granted). And Belt is good, but he isnt the type of player that you bend over backwards for. There are similar players on the FA market every year that can be had on 1-year deals worth 6-8M.

I am not sure there is much point in locking up Sanchez either. Susac will be the primary backup / semi-starter and Brown has shown to be a VERY capable catcher as well. Sanchez might be able to be had on a minor league contract.

I think you are probably right about Petit. I hate to see him go, though. He has real value. But he is going to be a roster crunch casualty, I suspect.

Kontos and Craw are two guys who need to be locked up. 2 years-ish for Kontos. 3 or 4 for Craw.

Sorry Cal, but that is simply not true.

 

[calsnowskier]

Sorry Cal, but that is simply not true.

Not as good as Belt, granted, but...

Burrell
Huff
Morse
LaRoche

Just off the top of my head.

Like I said, I like Belt better than these guys. But I would rather have flexibility at 1B than lock in a guy who is just upper mid-level. 1B is the NL version of the DH.

 

[SFGRTB]

The Giants don't really lose much tendering a contract to Petit, but they don't gain a thing by non-tendering him. $2.5M is pocket change at this point. He has value, I expect they'll trade him for something.

And, if my understanding is correct, just because they tender him a contract doesn't mean they have to commit to an amount right away. They can choose to tender him a contract and look to trade him throughout the winter until the (February?) deadline comes around to settle on a contract. It's what the Marlins did with McGeehe.

 

[tzill]

I think you may be undervaluing Belt a bit. If Posey needs to move to 1st base soon, I'm for letting Belt walk but if Posey stays behind the plate for many years, then I think its worth Belt being locked up. Belt is a top 10 1st baseman. Guys in that tier are not available on the FA market every year on 1 year deals.

As for Sanchez, I agree that he isn't as available on the roster that he used to be. I wonder if the Giants will try to trade him before arbitration to get someone back. Otherwise, I wouldn't be too surprised if both he and Petit are non-tendered. However, seeing multiple guys non-tendered seems a little un-Giant like.

1. Belt
I think Belt is routinely underrated and under appreciated. In the NL, he was 4th in WAR and 5th in OPS+ among 1B. That's close to All-Star. His production cannot be had on a 1 year deal for 6-8MM. Just not going to happen. He's a LOT better than most people think, and locking his 4ish WAR a year down for 4 years at something like $12 per makes a TON of sense.

2. Sanchez
He will be worth $1MM given the paucity of decent hitting catchers in the majors. But for his concussion issues, he'd be starting for 10 or so teams. He may be traded, but his arb salary isn't a lot.

3. Petit
I'd expect he'll be non-tendered. He's been league average over the last two years in terms of ERA+, but his FIP jumped up to over 4 this year, suggesting he was somewhat lucky to finish with an ERA of 4.31. His hits and HR/IP rose while his K/IP declined. He won't be worth the tender offer.

If we do need to move Posey to 1B in the future, a top 5 1B under contract for multiple years has a good bit of trade value.