Montalban
Well-Known Member
Oh yes. They are the prime example in fact. They kept trying to throw the ball down the field and failed miserablyAre you suggesting that the Ravens gave up on the run?
Oh yes. They are the prime example in fact. They kept trying to throw the ball down the field and failed miserablyAre you suggesting that the Ravens gave up on the run?
Oh, it is getting old. The Chiefs basically spent two whole offseasons only focusing on defense and the only thing that offensive move they made was Hardman and that likely had to do with the Hill situation.Yeah, but it has to be getting old.
Totally new DEF regime, but the results are not changing. The Colts basically played keep away from Mahomes and in this copycat league, that's something to keep an eye on as this season continues...you know BB is stashing tape away.
Prime example? They had over 200 yds rushing and 4 rushing TDs.Oh yes. They are the prime example in fact. They kept trying to throw the ball down the field and failed miserably
Thing is, the Colts only scored 19 points doing so and were not especially good at all in the process. If the copycat league has something to put a team that just had a record for most games with 25+ points to frequently under that mark, there's a better discussion to be had, but I got to be pretty incredulous here based on what I saw on that front.
Not sure there's anything to read into here besides this being an outlier to this point (outside of the race for HFA, then point taken)
Thing is, the Colts only scored 19 points doing so and were not especially good at all in the process.
KC is still #2 in the league.Oh, it is getting old. The Chiefs basically spent two whole offseasons only focusing on defense and the only thing that offensive move they made was Hardman and that likely had to do with the Hill situation.
Next man up is a relative term. When Hill goes down and Watkins is next man up then the Chiefs can still run their high flying offense. When Watkins goes down and you're relying on Robinson and Pringles then its an issue. Likewise, if your next man up at Left Tackle is Cam Erving then you're in trouble.
If the Chiefs are 5-3 or 6-2 at the midway point then I'll take that. Try and get healthy for the back half. Usually Chiefs fans are used to waiting on Justin Houston and Eric Berry to get healthy and now so its just a different kind of waiting game unless something happens to Mahomes....then its time to pack it in.
Footballoutsiders has an 'odds to win the Super Bowl' and New England is at 40% and no other team is at 10%. There really isn't a #2 team right now.
Appreciate the argument, but disagree.
I'd say if you have to cut off your hand in terms of EPA to accomplish this (not at all clear you can) then you're really stretching the value of such a strategy to the point where it's very difficult for me to put stock into it, at least as far as the NFL is concerned. Chip Kelly is a failed NFL coach for a myriad of reasons- this strategy being one of them.
I excluded the first drives of each half (defenses are well-rested for those drives), drives beginning in the last four minutes of the game (when teams are substantially less likely to score due to the clock being a factor), and sample sizes with fewer than 10 drives.
The site you posted negates the parts of the game that are specifically what TOP and ball control are aimed at... THE END.
The point isn't always scoring points or not letting them score on your D. It could be about just sustaining your drives a few minutes longer to run out the clock.
From the other perspective, if I ball control, I'm also running fewer plays as an offense, so I'm not inherently wearing down your defense any more than I would running plays normally unless I'm able to sustain those drives and keep you on the field.
I mostly agree. It's not an all telling stat, but it can be very important. It certainly was the reason the Colts won last night. They kept the ball out of Maholmes hands. Kept the clock going with short passes and running the ball.You’re right... it’s not always about scoring.
Let’s say the other team pins you deep on your side of the field and you start a drive at your own 2 yard line. That’s a dangerous position to be in... for a variety of reasons. Let’s say you are able to get the ball out to midfield but then your drive stalls and you punt the ball away and put your opponent inside their own 20 yard line. According to the articles logic that drive wasn’t “successful” because it didn’t result in points but the reality is it flipped the field and may have been a very important drive.
Analytics have a place in sports but you can’t judge sports solely on analytics. Besides, the one he’s citing is dumb. I don’t need an economist with a fancy formula to tell me the more points an offense scores the more likely they are to win. There’s much more to it than that.
This study standing alone is pointless. Wanna have it make sense? Show me a study that says TOP does NOT increase your chances of winning. Show me a study that says when you control the clock significantly more than your opponent that does not lead to a higher probability of winning.
I mostly agree. It's not an all telling stat, but it can be very important. It certainly was the reason the Colts won last night. They kept the ball out of Maholmes hands. Kept the clock going with short passes and running the ball.
I think they're the #2 when healthy. They aren't that team right now. We're basically the Texans without Fuller. We should probably be slight home underdogs in the next game tbh.KC is still #2 in the league.
Go get those Texans will you.
They allowed 19 points...
They're free to try this again.
I think they're the #2 when healthy. They aren't that team right now. We're basically the Texans without Fuller. We should probably be slight home underdogs in the next game tbh.
Truth be told, I turned off the Chiefs game at halftime because I was still salty over the STL/ATL game 3. It sounds like a didn't miss much.
The Chiefs defense allowed 4.47 yards per play man... The YPC was 4.0. That'd be a bottom 3 number in 2018 for an offense.37 minutes the Colts controlled the clock. Chiefs defense couldn't get them off the field. That offensive game plan played out exactly how the Colts drew it up. They did what they set out to do and the chiefs D could do nothing to stop them.
Selling all the way on the Bills as a SB contender. They're Bears East. Josh Allen is a future backup if he doesn't get himself seriously hurt first. They can probably make the postseason though.Haha. Chiefs are not the Texans. Not even close! Chiefs are far an away in the top 2 in the afc. They could easily win the SB. Right now it’s them and the pats and homefield is key.
Don’t sleep on the bills and that D though. 3 straight road wins. Bills problem is they can’t keep up with the scoring that the the pats and chiefs produce. Bills must play an almost perfect game to beat either of those teams. They can, but it’s not likely.
The Chiefs are cruising for 10-6 or 11-5 imo. Pats are probably closer to 14-2.Haha. Chiefs are not the Texans. Not even close! Chiefs are far an away in the top 2 in the afc. They could easily win the SB. Right now it’s them and the pats and homefield is key.
Selling all the way on the Bills as a SB contender. They're Bears East. Josh Allen is a future backup if he doesn't get himself seriously hurt first. They can probably make the postseason though.
That's not backed really by data, it's a meme. Pretty rare to achieve that, nor is it a sustainable strategy.
Running the ball doesn't really control the clock like long drives do- in fact, it's arguably worse because they are generally negative EPA.
The Colts scored 19 points.
The Chiefs offense sucked, and the Colts played a part in that.
Even still, rushing success is so circumstantial, RB's should get very little credit.
D is the only reason they won't be picking top 3 or 5 along with the Phins this year. Josh is just not it as a QB.They are clearly a cut below but that d is legit