Would you consider Wisconsin beating Kentucky an upset??

[bksballer89]

no

 

[LambeauLegs]

I know jack shit about basketball strategy but here are some thoughts of someone who does:

Wisconsin over Kentucky prediction, from a coach who knows


It is 30 years after The Perfect Upset of Georgetown, so the question for legendary Villanova coach Rollie Massimino is this:

Can Kentucky be beaten?

“Yup, they’re gonna get beat by Wisconsin,” Massimino told The Post about Saturday’s national semifinal in Indianapolis.

Why do you say that?

“Well, because I think Wisconsin really moves the ball, and they reverse it and hit it inside,” Massimino said. “And [Frank] Kaminsky is a pretty good player.”

Massimino is asked if he thinks there is added pressure on 38-0 Kentucky being unbeaten. Patrick Ewing and mighty Georgetown were a mere 30-2 before the eight seeds from Villanova took them down in the 1985 NCAA final.

“That’s part of it. I mean, they’re a bunch of young kids,” Massimino said of Kentucky’s relative inexperience. “But I think Wisconsin’s got two great players [Kaminsky and Sam Dekker] and then they got a cast of other good kids that can really play.”

 

[UK Cowboy]

There is a lot to criticize about this post, but this part takes the cake. It's the same team...with a year under Bo Ryan. It's like arguing Kaminsky must have been bad last year since he stunk in 2013. By all indications, we are MUCH better this year. Let's not kid ourselves.

Kentucky is as well, but the two players who presented major matchup problems (Randle and Young) are gone.

I totally disagree. KAT is a nightmare matchup for Wisconsin. They have no one for him

 

[podsox]

I think it is for sure an upset. Dribble penetration is the key to breaking down the Kentucky defense and I think Koenig and gasser are going to struggle. It will be interesting to see if Bo gives Jackson heavy minutes Saturday because if he is healthy I feel he can.

 

[ericd7633]

Yes, I would. I don't really see any indication why people wouldn't call it an upset other than they have an agenda against UK.

With that said, I think it'll be a good game. Wisconsin, outside of playing and losing to Duke, hasn't played a team close to the level of UK IMO

 

[Codaxx]

There is a lot to criticize about this post, but this part takes the cake. It's the same team...with a year under Bo Ryan. It's like arguing Kaminsky must have been bad last year since he stunk in 2013. By all indications, we are MUCH better this year. Let's not kid ourselves.

Kentucky is as well, but the two players who presented major matchup problems (Randle and Young) are gone.

'Wisconsin is essentially the same team, but 1 year older. I am not saying that did not grow, but the players are essentially the same. UK replaced 2 NBA kids with 4. Starting center vs Wisconsin last year is now #3 big man, as CS did not play. Depth on UK team is exponentially deeper.

 

[Codaxx]

I dont dispute UK being more talented, that said the best player on the court will be playing for Wisconsin. I dont doubt Cauley-Steins ability to defend on the perimeter as much as I do the other UK bigs BUT my question isnt only about that. Its whether the drawing out of thE UK bigs will effect their defense as a whole and more especially their rebounding. The ideal situation will be if the UK guards can use their length and quickness to guard the Wisky bigs but that didnt work out particularly well for Arizona and the Zona bigs couldnt deal with Kamensky and Dekker either. While I think the UK team has more talent and far more depth I also value experience which gives a slight edge to the badgers ( although not by as much as people tend to think ). The other thing is that Wisconsin values the ball much more than any team UK has played this year and a large part of the Cats offense is derived from using their athleticism for easy scores via turnovers which they likely will not get in anywhere close to the abundance they usually do which is going to require them running way more half court offense than they are accustomed to. This MAY mean that they will need to shoot it better than they normally do from outside.

Rebounding and Steals? I am not sure you watched much Kentucky basketball. They are not a great defensive rebounding team. They are not a pressure defense that relies on turnovers. In both steals and defensive rebounds, Kentucky ranks in the 100s.

 

[Smart]

Yes, I would. I don't really see any indication why people wouldn't call it an upset other than they have an agenda against UK.

With that said, I think it'll be a good game. Wisconsin, outside of playing and losing to Duke, hasn't played a team close to the level of UK IMO

Did you miss last weekend? Arizona is a better team than Duke and probably the closest team to Kentucky.

 

[ericd7633]

Did you miss last weekend? Arizona is a better team than Duke and probably the closest team to Kentucky.

I disagree, Duke has a much higher ceiling than Arizona did IMO. Duke has more talent that Arizona did IMO. Duke has a better starting PG, SG, SF/PF depending where Winslow starts and Center. Neither team has much of bench. You can throw out all sorts of efficiency numbers that will be in Arizona's favor, and that's fine. That's the benefit of starting a senior, two juniors and a sophomore. Duke's also not the same team defensively they were during the regular season, which kills them overall. Outside of the first half against ND in the ACC semi, their defense has been fantastic, the last month.

 

[podsox]

Did you miss last weekend? Arizona is a better team than Duke and probably the closest team to Kentucky.

I don't know how u can decide zona is a better than duke based off of last wkend. they struggled against Xavier and would have lost by 20 to wisky if it wasn't for all of the touch fouls that sent them to line down the stretch.

 

[gordontrue]

I don't know how u can decide zona is a better than duke based off of last wkend. they struggled against Xavier and would have lost by 20 to wisky if it wasn't for all of the touch fouls that sent them to line down the stretch.

[trying to suppress rage]

A. What might the score have been had Wisconsin not shot 9-11 from 3 in the 2nd half? Almost 80% from the field in the 2nd half. Wisconsin's offense was impressive against what was very well played defense. Few of those shots were not well contested.

B. The refs called the game very tight... but it went both ways. Arizona's best player in terms of guarding Kaminsky was called for 2 touch fouls within the first 2 minutes of the game and spent a lot of time on the bench. Admittedly my view of the game won't be as unbiased as it could be... but it felt like there were way more rough calls that went against Zona. (A hilarious Kaminsky flop comes to mind... as does Stanley Johnson getting slapped in the face (and injured) on a rebound that was called against Stanley. )

That was a very well played game by both teams in all facets. Looking at offense and defense as a combined picture... there hasn't been a better collective game played by 2 teams in this tournament... IMO. The only thing that hindered the game was the refs being far too involved.

 

[podsox]

[trying to suppress rage]

A. What might the score have been had Wisconsin not shot 9-11 from 3 in the 2nd half? Almost 80% from the field in the 2nd half. Wisconsin's offense was impressive against what was very well played defense. Few of those shots were not well contested.

B. The refs called the game very tight... but it went both ways. Arizona's best player in terms of guarding Kaminsky was called for 2 touch fouls within the first 2 minutes of the game and spent a lot of time on the bench. Admittedly my view of the game won't be as unbiased as it could be... but it felt like there were way more rough calls that went against Zona. (A hilarious Kaminsky flop comes to mind... as does Stanley Johnson getting slapped in the face (and injured) on a rebound that was called against Stanley. )

from the 10 minute to 3 minute stretch of the 2nd half Arizona went to the free throw line 9 out of 11 possessions and only 1 was in the act of shooting. go back and watch those foul calls. it was a complete joke. I had no horse in the game. decker shooting 9-11 is insane but he actually made plays. zona got bailed out by bs touch fouls the entire 2nd half that kept them within striking distance.

 

[gordontrue]

from the 10 minute to 3 minute stretch of the 2nd half Arizona went to the free throw line 9 out of 11 possessions and only 1 was in the act of shooting. go back and watch those foul calls. it was a complete joke. I had no horse in the game. decker shooting 9-11 is insane but he actually made plays. zona got bailed out by bs touch fouls the entire 2nd half that kept them within striking distance.

I have to acknowledge the fact that I did have a horse in the game... and you apparently didn't... thus making you more likely to see things as they truly are than me.

All that said... I stand by my initial impression that your analysis of the game is completely 1-sided and ultimately wrong. Go back and watch some of the fouls that Kaminsky drew. The refs were calling it tight both ways.

As for Dekker's insane shooting = "making plays"... and Zona's free throw shooting = "getting bailed out"... that's complete BS.

How does the refs calling a tight game = a criticism on Zona? Who's to say that those possessions wouldn't have ended in a Zona score if the refs chose to swallow their whistle? Like you said... they weren't shooting fouls (which can often be legitimately called bail out calls).


You say you have no horse in the game but it sounds like you're only willing to look from one direciton... whether that's because you're trying to make a point about Wisconsin being unchallenged.... or because you were actually pulling for Wisconsin in that game... I can't say.... but I would highly suspect that both are the case.

 

[podsox]

I have to acknowledge the fact that I did have a horse in the game... and you apparently didn't... thus making you more likely to see things as they truly are than me.

All that said... I stand by my initial impression that your analysis of the game is completely 1-sided and ultimately wrong. Go back and watch some of the fouls that Kaminsky drew. The refs were calling it tight both ways.

As for Dekker's insane shooting = "making plays"... and Zona's free throw shooting = "getting bailed out"... that's complete BS.

How does the refs calling a tight game = a criticism on Zona? Who's to say that those possessions wouldn't have ended in a Zona score if the refs chose to swallow their whistle? Like you said... they weren't shooting fouls (which can often be legitimately called bail out calls).


You say you have no horse in the game but it sounds like you're only willing to look from one direciton... whether that's because you're trying to make a point about Wisconsin being unchallenged.... or because you were actually pulling for Wisconsin in that game... I can't say.... but I would highly suspect that both are the case.

ill give them credit for hitting their free throws because college kids have a real hard time doing that. I still stand by comments

 

[Hornsstampede2.0]

Not at all

Kentucky is undefeated, but they are not some invincible superteam.

LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame all had the ball in the air for the shot to win.

I dont think this UK is nearly as good as the one who won it all 3 years ago.

I would say Wisky/Uk is a 50/50 coinflip game.

 

[JuiceTheGator]

UK can be beaten by UW. Hell, with all our problems this year, UF played right with UK in SECCG. (damned free throws)

That said, yes...it would be an upset. Kaminsky better drink his Gatorade because UK (with their bench) is going to run and press the Badgers to their limit. As always, if UW is hot shooting outside they can win and if UK has a cold spell they can lose.

 

[Codaxx]

Not at all

Kentucky is undefeated, but they are not some invincible superteam.

LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame all had the ball in the air for the shot to win.

I dont think this UK is nearly as good as the one who won it all 3 years ago.

I would say Wisky/Uk is a 50/50 coinflip game.

I got this team as better than that one. Much more depth. More skilled inside. The Brow wasnt quite The Brow at that time. 1996 blows this team out

 

[night]

Kind of but not really. Wisconsin has one of the best resumes in the country (including sweeping Michigan State).

 

[UK Cowboy]

Did you miss last weekend? Arizona is a better team than Duke and probably the closest team to Kentucky.

Duke would squash Zona like a grape

 

[UK Cowboy]

I got this team as better than that one. Much more depth. More skilled inside. The Brow wasnt quite The Brow at that time. 1996 blows this team out

1996 would beat this team