why is there punting?

[Tubbs1518]

I have seen the analysis before, and I do not believe it is accurate. It doesn't (and can't) consider the momentum swing that comes with a big fourth down stop, or how badly this type of thing would affect the rhythm of the game. Economic analysis is a wonderful tool, but when applied to a sport like football where momentum and emotion play such a large role (see Seattle at home, Ray Lewis carrying the ravens to a SB victory despite laughably bad on the field play, etc), the validity has to be questioned. You would turn a .500 team into a .000 team and a .750 team into a .250 team if you followed this advice.

That is just plain false. The momentum of getting a big 4th down would offset the big 4th down stops. You have absolutely 0 analysis to back your thoughts up.

 

[JBUCK66]

they should try no punting for a season.

they would line up to thank me

What? 4 downs not enough? ok 5 then, but I think 4 should be enough


would the top to bottom list of wins/losses change much?

Who wins? Us

 

[JDM]

That is just plain false. The momentum of getting a big 4th down would offset the big 4th down stops. You have absolutely 0 analysis to back your thoughts up.

It doesn't come close to canceling out. First off, the momentum swing starts smaller. Second, if you attempt most fourth downs, the return for making one diminishes.

The only way to do an actual analysis is to throw away at least a season (realistically probably several) and conceding a season doesn't fly in the NFL.

 

[Tubbs1518]

It doesn't come close to canceling out. First off, the momentum swing starts smaller. Second, if you attempt most fourth downs, the return for making one diminishes.

The only way to do an actual analysis is to throw away at least a season (realistically probably several) and conceding a season doesn't fly in the NFL.

Statistics backing an argument versus no statistics backing an argument. I wonder which is better. You sound like Smart and all of his stupidity.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

they should try no punting for a season.

they would line up to thank me

What? 4 downs not enough? ok 5 then, but I think 4 should be enough


would the top to bottom list of wins/losses change much?

Who wins? Us

I bet Kevin Huber would hate your ass though.

 

[Cincyfan78]

It doesn't come close to canceling out. First off, the momentum swing starts smaller. Second, if you attempt most fourth downs, the return for making one diminishes. The only way to do an actual analysis is to throw away at least a season (realistically probably several) and conceding a season doesn't fly in the NFL.

Actually, it's the other way around...statistically speaking, of course.

You also can't quantify momentum. If a team on offense expects to go for it all the time and fails, momentum against them loses its luster because it's not a rare occurance any longer. Momentum "appears" to swing when a team that rarely goes for it on 4th down fails. But a team that always goes for it knows that there are times it will work and times it won't. Therefore, you could argue that inversley, momenum wouldn't exist with them off-setting any momentum gained from the defense stopping them.

Also, you can argue that a defense that knows an offense is always going to go for it on 4th down doesn't get the same momentum swing because it becomes just another down.


You can disagree all you want. People much smarter than you, I, and anyone else on this board, have crunched the numebrs...in the long run, you should go for it on 4th down more often than not if you want to truly increase your chances of winning.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I bet Kevin Huber would hate your ass though.

Actually, his job just got a whole lot easier...

no more angle kicks and inside the 20 kicks....just on occasion he has to be able to put the ball about 60 yards in the air...easier to work on his craft when there is only one area to work on.

Other than that...he's a freeloader getting paid a lot of money to rarely do his job...what sucks about that? LOL

 

[SFNL]

Make it like timeouts. Only allowed 5 punts per game.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Actually, his job just got a whole lot easier...

no more angle kicks and inside the 20 kicks....just on occasion he has to be able to put the ball about 60 yards in the air...easier to work on his craft when there is only one area to work on.

Other than that...he's a freeloader getting paid a lot of money to rarely do his job...what sucks about that? LOL

I thought there was no punting anymore, which mean no job anymore. Not much of a freeloader if you do not have a job to begin with.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

It would be interesting if there was no punting at all in the NFL. You have 4 downs to get teh first, no matter where you are. Even if you are on your own 1 yard line and it is 4th and 29. The other team gets to take over where ever you stopped and were unable to get the first down.

However, there would not be many plays in that area anymore unless there is a bad kickoff return with penalties, or the other team decided to go for it on 4th down instead of kick a short FG didn't make it, and left you starting your drive inside your own 5.

It would make things interesting, that is for sure.

Not an option, so no point in worrying about it.

I am glad people are suggesting removing one of the better parts of our team though. Huber has a tendency to pin people deep in their own territory more often than not. So let's remove one of the strongest parts of our team, our punter who benefits us with good field position for our defense to start taking over a game.

 

[JBUCK66]

I bet Kevin Huber would hate your ass though.

he can play soccer, which could then be called football

 

[CrashDavisSports]

he can play soccer, which could then be called football

I thought it would be called "futball" with some kind of accent mark over the U.

 

[JBUCK66]

our new game would be called moveball

 

[Cincyfan78]

It would be interesting if there was no punting at all in the NFL. You have 4 downs to get teh first, no matter where you are. Even if you are on your own 1 yard line and it is 4th and 29. The other team gets to take over where ever you stopped and were unable to get the first down.

However, there would not be many plays in that area anymore unless there is a bad kickoff return with penalties, or the other team decided to go for it on 4th down instead of kick a short FG didn't make it, and left you starting your drive inside your own 5.

It would make things interesting, that is for sure.

Not an option, so no point in worrying about it.

I am glad people are suggesting removing one of the better parts of our team though. Huber has a tendency to pin people deep in their own territory more often than not. So let's remove one of the strongest parts of our team, our punter who benefits us with good field position for our defense to start taking over a game.[/QUOTE]


If it meant more points per game, and ultimately more wins...yeah...

 

[CrashDavisSports]

It would be interesting if there was no punting at all in the NFL. You have 4 downs to get teh first, no matter where you are. Even if you are on your own 1 yard line and it is 4th and 29. The other team gets to take over where ever you stopped and were unable to get the first down.

However, there would not be many plays in that area anymore unless there is a bad kickoff return with penalties, or the other team decided to go for it on 4th down instead of kick a short FG didn't make it, and left you starting your drive inside your own 5.

It would make things interesting, that is for sure.

Not an option, so no point in worrying about it.

I am glad people are suggesting removing one of the better parts of our team though. Huber has a tendency to pin people deep in their own territory more often than not. So let's remove one of the strongest parts of our team, our punter who benefits us with good field position for our defense to start taking over a game.[/QUOTE]


If it meant more points per game, and ultimately more wins...yeah...

For both teams though right?

So, the Bengals, who have a great punter, and the Packers, not quite as much, who do you think this scenerio actually benefits? The Bengals, or the Packers?

Just what we want, to give the Packers more points.

 

[JDM]

Statistics backing an argument versus no statistics backing an argument. I wonder which is better. You sound like Smart and all of his stupidity.

The statistics do not account for near all of the factors involved. Just because I do not have the desire to write up a complex analysis of what is flawed with the claim (this is a leisure activity after all, not a career) does not mean that I am incapable doing so, or that I do not have an understanding of statistics, how they work, and where they fall short. I have given one small example, and I have no need or desire to teach you math. I do that for enough people who's opinions and lives I actually care about.

I am just explaining to you that the paper you are claiming as ironclad (with a clear lack of understanding of the numbers or methodologies used to write his paper) is not as well backed as you seem to believe. Take it, leave it, I don't really care. My team knows better to consider this type of plan, and if your team chooses to do so, you will be disappointed.

 

[Cincyfan78]

For both teams though right?

So, the Bengals, who have a great punter, and the Packers, not quite as much, who do you think this scenerio actually benefits? The Bengals, or the Packers?

Just what we want, to give the Packers more points.

Under this scenario, I'm specifically talking about only the Bengals actually doing this, thus the advantage.

If you are worried about the Packers also having an increase in points, that is where your defense comes in, not your punter.

 

[kramer1]

How the fuck is there 3 pages of conversation on a jbuck thread?

 

[RobBase]

So Browns fans aren't staring at the same spot on the field all game long.

 

[flamingrey]

Should Football Teams Go for It on Fourth Down? | Super Bowl 46 New England Patriots vs. New York Giants | Sports Science | LiveScience

Advanced NFL Stats: The 4th Down Study - Part 1

Advanced NFL Stats: The 4th Down Study - Part 2

Advanced NFL Stats: The 4th Down Study - Part 3

Advanced NFL Stats: The 4th Down Study - Part 4

The numbers show that NFL coaches should go for it more - ESPN The Magazine

Advanced NFL Stats: Going for It on Fourth Down

http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf

That last one is the paper from the Cal Berkley professor some of the links reference too. It's all really interesting statistical analysis. It's a long read and if you can't get interest out of statistical analysis you won't enjoy it.

"One weakness of the paper is that it dismisses the concept of risk as unimportant."

This is just silly.

How the heck do you talk about sports and not account for "risk".