Which side you want?

[eaglesnut]

In all fairness, we have no clue who "Brady's guy" is going to be. Godwin had 1 year of being the #1...Brady loves the veterans. His go-to guys have always been veterans. I see him spreading the love but I really don't see a huge difference as of right now and without really knowing.

Godwin 121 targets in 14 games
Evans 118 targets in 13 games

Evans is a freak and Brady isn't an idiot.

 

[eaglesnut]

any body actually have some data or evidence to support the "Brady can't make the throws anymore" theory?

I haven't seen anything compelling to jump to that conclusion, other than Patriots not having much outside talent on their roster the last couple years.

Evans made most of his hay last year on throws under 25yds, not just deep bombs from Winston. Brady is deadly accurate still on throws under 30yds

How many of these guys called Frank Gore done 8 years ago? Haha.

Everyone wants the shiny new thing, Godwin in this case, but the only thing he showed last year was that Arians offense supports two receivers, which we knew anyway.

Godwin vs Evans isn't all that interesting and isn't close from a talent standpoint. What's interesting to me in this offense is Godwin vs the TEs, which Brady has shown he loves and which Arians has shown his offense ignores.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

@TKOSpikes - when you read this, you'll say "make that trade yesterday"

I have J Cook and Dissly as well as Hunter, lol, I'm set at TE, imo

Which is why I'm going after Irv, I think he'll be the next big thing for fantasy at the position, even if it takes another season to happen

 

[TREFF]

@TKOSpikes - when you read this, you'll say "make that trade yesterday"

I have J Cook and Dissly as well as Hunter, lol, I'm set at TE, imo

Which is why I'm going after Irv, I think he'll be the next big thing for fantasy at the position, even if it takes another season to happen

That convinces me to say make it yesterday

 

[MilkSpiller22]

i am not sold either way.... which really means its a fair trade IMO...

But i see the TEs to be a toss in... so to me it is a first and Brown for Evans...

if it is not a top 5 pick, then it is theoretically not a starter... So i dont know how much value it has preseason...

I would probably keep Evans... as even though he is in a crowded offense, with an aging QB, he is still on a team that will want to be a pass first offense... and also play 4 games vs the panthers, and falcons who both have bad defenses... And Atlanta will be a shootout...

Brown scares me, although he is clearly the #1 receiver on a good team, but the titans are clearly a run first offense, and the titans have shown that they are willing to win by 3 in a slow game(pretty sure the titans are near the bottom in plays per game).... I just dont see him catching 100 balls, and might not get many TDs...

 

[SmokingMonkey]

i am not sold either way.... which really means its a fair trade IMO...

But i see the TEs to be a toss in... so to me it is a first and Brown for Evans...

if it is not a top 5 pick, then it is theoretically not a starter... So i dont know how much value it has preseason...

I would probably keep Evans... as even though he is in a crowded offense, with an aging QB, he is still on a team that will want to be a pass first offense... and also play 4 games vs the panthers, and falcons who both have bad defenses... And Atlanta will be a shootout...

Brown scares me, although he is clearly the #1 receiver on a good team, but the titans are clearly a run first offense, and the titans have shown that they are willing to win by 3 in a slow game(pretty sure the titans are near the bottom in plays per game).... I just dont see him catching 100 balls, and might not get many TDs...

Do less plays per game actually matter?
They avg 3 less plays per game than KC, and I've never heard anyone discount their WRs due to less plays.

Would be curious to see any stats regarding # of plays/game impact on WRs with little to no target competition.

Wait, you're not a Corey Davis truther are you?? Lol

 

[TREFF]

Do less plays per game actually matter?
They avg 3 less plays per game than KC, and I've never heard anyone discount their WRs due to less plays.

Would be curious to see any stats regarding # of plays/game impact on WRs with little to no target competition.

Wait, you're not a Corey Davis truther are you?? Lol

Philly had the most plays per game at 69
Washington had, by far, the least at just a tick over 55.
Tennessee clocked in at 59.
KC had 61.

As far as #1 WR's with no competition go..tough one. Is Edelman a #1 wr with no competition? If so, NE had 68.4 plays per game, and he had 16 ppr pts per game.

If he doesn't fit the bill, the next #1 with no competition would be D. Adams, GB ran 63.75 plays per game, and Adams had 10 ppr points per game.

AJ Brown, again, 59 plays per game, had 13.6 ppr points per game -but let's not entirely forget he played very sporadically the first 8 weeks, didn't begin starting games until the second half, so its a little skewed to count all 16 games in the average.

Other #1's with no competition

DJ Chark, 63.75 plays, 15 points per

J. Brown, 63.5 plays, 14.6 pts

Hopkins, 63.5 plays 17.9pts

Hilton, 63.5 plays, 10 pts

K. Allen, 62 plays, 16.3pts

McLuarin, 55 plays, 13.9 pts per

Kinda inconclusive if you ask me.

* points from pfr
Plays per game from "football database"

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Philly had the most plays per game at 69
Washington had, by far, the least at just a tick over 55.
Tennessee clocked in at 59.
KC had 61.

As far as #1 WR's with no competition go..tough one. Is Edelman a #1 wr with no competition? If so, NE had 68.4 plays per game, and he had 16 ppr pts per game.

If he doesn't fit the bill, the next #1 with no competition would be D. Adams, GB ran 63.75 plays per game, and Adams had 10 ppr points per game.

AJ Brown, again, 59 plays per game, had 13.6 ppr points per game -but let's not entirely forget he played very sporadically the first 8 weeks, didn't begin starting games until the second half, so its a little skewed to count all 16 games in the average.

Other #1's with no competition

DJ Chark, 63.75 plays, 15 points per

J. Brown, 63.5 plays, 14.6 pts

Hopkins, 63.5 plays 17.9pts

Hilton, 63.5 plays, 10 pts

K. Allen, 62 plays, 16.3pts

McLuarin, 55 plays, 13.9 pts per

Kinda inconclusive if you ask me.

* points from pfr
Plays per game from "football database"

with Tannehill as the full-time starter (last 10 games), AJB avg 16.4pts/game

watching the games, he seemed extremely hard to tackle any time the ball was in his hands, a trait I love to see in WRs.
has already said he was fatigued in the 4th qtr several times last year, and had to miss some snaps throughout the season. been working on conditioning so that doesn't happen again.

looking forward, I can't see any scenarios where a healthy AJB doesn't see increases in snap count and targets next year. arrow's pointing up for sure here.

 

[Stomp]

AJ Brown had 52 catches on 84 targets last season 695 offensive snaps 68.4% of the team total 49th among WR, The top 32 WR all played at least 800 snaps

Games 1-8 he was only on the field 43-65% of the snaps 34 targets 22 receptions
Games 9-16 he was on the field 69-100% 48 targets 30 receptions

Even with serious YAC regression there's plenty of room for stat progression

 

[leftypower]

For me the next yr first put that option over the other. ....

 

[Shanemansj13]

I don't know the more I think about it I like Irv Smith Jr...he could be the starter sooner rather than later and I like what he offers. ABrown is definitely a stud (not better than Evans and I really don't think people realize Evans is STILL ONLY 26). Not a fan of TEN's passing attack either. The extra 1st is great too...so basically for me:

If you came in 3rd and are trying to compete NOW...Evans and Henry, even though I'm not a Henry fan.

If you are rebuilding, trying to compete in a few years or don't think you have the talent now...Brown, Irv and the 1st

The more I think about it...it's close though. I wouldn't fault you for taking either side of this trade

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I don't know the more I think about it I like Irv Smith Jr...he could be the starter sooner rather than later and I like what he offers. ABrown is definitely a stud (not better than Evans and I really don't think people realize Evans is STILL ONLY 26). Not a fan of TEN's passing attack either. The extra 1st is great too...so basically for me:

If you came in 3rd and are trying to compete NOW...Evans and Henry, even though I'm not a Henry fan.

If you are rebuilding, trying to compete in a few years or don't think you have the talent now...Brown, Irv and the 1st

The more I think about it...it's close though. I wouldn't fault you for taking either side of this trade

hard to say, honestly
If my assessment of Jon Taylor is accurate, yes, I'm a contender. If not, I'll need some thing to fall my way
with 16 teams, RB is very thin across the board

Dak/BigBen
Dalvin/JTaylor/Michel/Duke/Boone/Bowden/Lat Murray/Snell/Mike Warren
Evans/Woods/Juju/Crowder/Shepard/Campbell/Aiyuk/Edwards
Hunter/JCook/Dissly

 

[MilkSpiller22]

hard to say, honestly
If my assessment of Jon Taylor is accurate, yes, I'm a contender. If not, I'll need some thing to fall my way
with 16 teams, RB is very thin across the board

Dak/BigBen
Dalvin/JTaylor/Michel/Duke/Boone/Bowden/Lat Murray/Snell/Mike Warren
Evans/Woods/Juju/Crowder/Shepard/Campbell/Aiyuk/Edwards
Hunter/JCook/Dissly

at the end of the day it is all up to you... if you think Brown will be anywhere close to evans, then make the deal... it really cant hurt you...

I personally, see the upside to evans, to be much higher than the upside to Brown... I just cant see brown being a top 10 WR... I can see evans being a top 5...

their floors are similar too IMO...

 

[Bandit]

I think you should make the trade just so there's a trade made in the league. LOL.

 

[Shanemansj13]

hard to say, honestly
If my assessment of Jon Taylor is accurate, yes, I'm a contender. If not, I'll need some thing to fall my way
with 16 teams, RB is very thin across the board

Dak/BigBen
Dalvin/JTaylor/Michel/Duke/Boone/Bowden/Lat Murray/Snell/Mike Warren
Evans/Woods/Juju/Crowder/Shepard/Campbell/Aiyuk/Edwards
Hunter/JCook/Dissly

That's a competing now roster imo.

Looking at your roster Brown and Irv doesn't help it...if anything it makes it worse. You still have Cook at TE in case. I like your WR core. RB is slim pickings but like you said everyone has depth issues at RB and if JTaylor is a stud you have him for awhile.

 

[SteelersPride]

Do less plays per game actually matter?
They avg 3 less plays per game than KC, and I've never heard anyone discount their WRs due to less plays.

Would be curious to see any stats regarding # of plays/game impact on WRs with little to no target competition.

Wait, you're not a Corey Davis truther are you?? Lol

I agree with @MilkSpiller22 and no
Less plays per game don’t necessarily matter but ZERO chance aj and or tanny maintain that efficiency, and without it, it’s bleAk

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I agree with @MilkSpiller22 and no
Less plays per game don’t necessarily matter but ZERO chance aj and or tanny maintain that efficiency, and without it, it’s bleAk

AJB is checking a lot of boxes for me as someone to breakout and become a consistent WR1.

What criteria do you look for, or put another way, what boxes does AJB not check for you?

 

[ANGELAKERAMS]

In a 16 team league, the extra 1st rounder is going to be huge for you.

Hunter is more name than he is consistent producer on the field.

I think Brown and Evans will be close enough this coming season that you won’t be hurting with that swap.

that extra 1st is going to make a bigger difference for your team ( even if it ends up late round ) than losing Hunter will. JMHO of course

 

[SteelersPride]

AJB is checking a lot of boxes for me as someone to breakout and become a consistent WR1.

What criteria do you look for, or put another way, what boxes does AJB not check for you?

Look i preached prior to the draft, that he was the best WR in that class........

But even during his "breakout", he didnt have many targets......corey davis kinda sucks, but he was a round 1 pick.....he's still there, jonnu smith is there, Derek henry is gonna get fed.......Tanny is the qb.......

Something has to give.........less clock control and henry action.........
Less efficiency from tanny
Less efficiency ffrom AJB.

His talent is undeniable....there is obvious room for growth, but are the titans gonna change their game plan? Even if there was an increase in passing attempts.......couple that with the inevitable large efficiency drop from tanny and AJB........I dont see how he goes crazy without a whole scheme change....

But purely for a breakout wr, i need oppertunity.......i dont see how he gets a TON MORE oppertunity, and if he sees 20 more targets, and him and tanny come down to earth, hes not a wr1 imho.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Look i preached prior to the draft, that he was the best WR in that class........

But even during his "breakout", he didnt have many targets......corey davis kinda sucks, but he was a round 1 pick.....he's still there, jonnu smith is there, Derek henry is gonna get fed.......Tanny is the qb.......

Something has to give.........less clock control and henry action.........
Less efficiency from tanny
Less efficiency ffrom AJB.

His talent is undeniable....there is obvious room for growth, but are the titans gonna change their game plan? Even if there was an increase in passing attempts.......couple that with the inevitable large efficiency drop from tanny and AJB........I dont see how he goes crazy without a whole scheme change....

But purely for a breakout wr, i need oppertunity.......i dont see how he gets a TON MORE oppertunity, and if he sees 20 more targets, and him and tanny come down to earth, hes not a wr1 imho.

good stuff - He was my #1 WR pre-draft as well, and I downgraded him when he landed with the Titans. Wish I didn't.

I have him pegged to see a small bump in target share, from 24% (once he became the starter) up to 30% this season. Arthur Smith is a good OC and a smart football mind, and Vrabel seems to let him do his thing. I think they are going to put to ball in their best players' hands. Decrease in efficiency will be comped over by an increase in targets and receptions, imo.

So let's do the math

say Tannehill avg 27 passes/game as a starter, 16 games, comes to 432 attempts. 30% of that comes out to 130 targets for AJB, 50 more than he saw last year. he catches 65% of those passes, comes out to 85 rec. agreed completely that he isn't seeing 20yds/rec this year, let's take 6 off and do 14yds/rec.
Comes out to 1180yds.

and this is all keeping the same conservative offense in mind, just extrapolating it out to 16 games. any uptick in passing would be enough to take AJB into that level of opportunity that I think most would want.

appreciate the counter points, keeps me thinking!