Which side you want?

[SteelersPride]

good stuff - He was my #1 WR pre-draft as well, and I downgraded him when he landed with the Titans. Wish I didn't.

I have him pegged to see a small bump in target share, from 24% (once he became the starter) up to 30% this season. Arthur Smith is a good OC and a smart football mind, and Vrabel seems to let him do his thing. I think they are going to put to ball in their best players' hands. Decrease in efficiency will be comped over by an increase in targets and receptions, imo.

So let's do the math

say Tannehill avg 27 passes/game as a starter, 16 games, comes to 432 attempts. 30% of that comes out to 130 targets for AJB, 50 more than he saw last year. he catches 65% of those passes, comes out to 85 rec. agreed completely that he isn't seeing 20yds/rec this year, let's take 6 off and do 14yds/rec.
Comes out to 1180yds.

and this is all keeping the same conservative offense in mind, just extrapolating it out to 16 games. any uptick in passing would be enough to take AJB into that level of opportunity that I think most would want.

appreciate the counter points, keeps me thinking!

A 50 target bump? Yowza. 130 targets? A titans player has seen 130 targets twice going back and including the 2010 season. One was a tight end. Heck I think 120 may only be 2-3 times....


Fwiw 15 players saw 130 targets last year....one was a rb and two were tight ends

16 saw 130 targets in 2018. 3 of those were tight ends....

12 in 2017



You think they’re gonna take that leap to put him in the echelon of targets? As many as guys like Evans, obj, Allen , Thielen, hill?

 

[TREFF]

A 50 target bump? Yowza. 130 targets? A titans player has seen 130 targets twice going back and including the 2010 season. One was a tight end. Heck I think 120 may only be 2-3 times....


Fwiw 15 players saw 130 targets last year....one was a rb and two were tight ends

16 saw 130 targets in 2018. 3 of those were tight ends....

12 in 2017



You think they’re gonna take that leap to put him in the echelon of targets? As many as guys like Evans, obj, Allen , Thielen, hill?

Dont forget, he was not a starter/full time player for half his games, a 50 target increase isnt exactly crazy now that he is undoubtedly the guy

 

[SteelersPride]

Dont forget, he was not a starter/full time player for half his games, a 50 target increase isnt exactly crazy now that he is undoubtedly the guy

I guess, but a low volume passing attack, with a predictable
Run game, and peppering one wr just doesn’t seem like it’s gonna work to
Me. I very well could be wrong.....

but titans also lost their best lineman, and Henry wasn’t exactly dominant the first half of the year AGAIN. He was good, not great.

I dunno maybe that makes them pass more..

 

[SmokingMonkey]

A 50 target bump? Yowza. 130 targets? A titans player has seen 130 targets twice going back and including the 2010 season

But that's not a pure 50 test bump. It's a 6% increase in his target share, in the exact same offense, same QB, same HC/OC. Less passing = easier to increase target share, as 1 target is worth a higher percentage than 1 target on a high volume attack.

By your reasoning, are we not expecting increased target share from any of last year's good rookie WRs? I am expecting at least AJB, DK, McLaren at a minimum to see more work based off good results as rookies combined with their teams not having deep WR rooms
I'm sure I'm missing one or two guys too.

And I wouldn't make too much out of titans losing jack Conklin, heard they like to run the ball down in Georgia, and Isiah Wilson had a little something to do with that being successful for the Bulldogs last year.
Conklin was better last yr, but titans have done an awesome job with their cap space. Entire team will be together for 2 more seasons, all starters locked up already. Sucks to see him and Jurrell Casey leave, but that's why you draft 1st round picks, to take over for your pricey vets.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I can’t believe nobody has brought up the sophomore jinx. Or the fact that all teams will now know he is the number one. And gameplan against it.

 

[Lamarvelous]

That's a competing now roster imo.

Looking at your roster Brown and Irv doesn't help it...if anything it makes it worse. You still have Cook at TE in case. I like your WR core. RB is slim pickings but like you said everyone has depth issues at RB and if JTaylor is a stud you have him for awhile.

I don't think switching AJB and Evans makes it worse. At worst I'd say it's a lateral move. That, plus the 1st and a potential stud at TE (he'll be fine for at least this year with Cook and Dissly) makes me think he should make the trade even more.

 

[Lamarvelous]

But that's not a pure 50 test bump. It's a 6% increase in his target share, in the exact same offense, same QB, same HC/OC. Less passing = easier to increase target share, as 1 target is worth a higher percentage than 1 target on a high volume attack.

By your reasoning, are we not expecting increased target share from any of last year's good rookie WRs? I am expecting at least AJB, DK, McLaren at a minimum to see more work based off good results as rookies combined with their teams not having deep WR rooms
I'm sure I'm missing one or two guys too.

And I wouldn't make too much out of titans losing jack Conklin, heard they like to run the ball down in Georgia, and Isiah Wilson had a little something to do with that being successful for the Bulldogs last year.
Conklin was better last yr, but titans have done an awesome job with their cap space. Entire team will be together for 2 more seasons, all starters locked up already. Sucks to see him and Jurrell Casey leave, but that's why you draft 1st round picks, to take over for your pricey vets.

The only thing I'm worried about as far as AJB seeing that much of an increase in targets is Jonnu Smith having an increased role in the offense.

Although, after their bye in week 11 their target shares went like this....

AJB: 28, 18, 26, 35, 7, 38
Jonnu: 0, 9, 15, 14, 15, 0

But also, before he got hurt (and before AJB had a prominent role), Delanie Walker saw...
25, 21, 22, 7, 9, 18 while AJB saw no more than 18% in those weeks (he wasn't starting so obviously that makes sense)

Seems like they're gonna force-feed AJB the ball... and that makes me moist for his potential.

 

[Lamarvelous]

A 50 target bump? Yowza. 130 targets? A titans player has seen 130 targets twice going back and including the 2010 season. One was a tight end. Heck I think 120 may only be 2-3 times....


Fwiw 15 players saw 130 targets last year....one was a rb and two were tight ends

16 saw 130 targets in 2018. 3 of those were tight ends....

12 in 2017



You think they’re gonna take that leap to put him in the echelon of targets? As many as guys like Evans, obj, Allen , Thielen, hill?

They have nobody else to throw the ball to. And as I showed in a previous post, they weren't throwing Jonnu the ball when AJB was their clear #1.

AJB is gonna get his chance to eat. And imo, he's gonna feast.

 

[Lamarvelous]

I can’t believe nobody has brought up the sophomore jinx. Or the fact that all teams will now know he is the number one. And gameplan against it.

Teams knew he was the #1 at the end of last year and still couldn't stop him.

From weeks 12-17 last year, when he was the obvious #1, he averaged 100 yards, 1 TD, and only 4 (FOUR) receptions per game on 6.5 targets. Even if his efficiency takes a hit, his increase in targets over the year will make him an absolute stud imo.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Teams knew he was the #1 at the end of last year and still couldn't stop him.

From weeks 12-17 last year, when he was the obvious #1, he averaged 100 yards, 1 TD, and only 4 (FOUR) receptions per game on 6.5 targets. Even if his efficiency takes a hit, his increase in targets over the year will make him an absolute stud imo.

I agree that he is the clear number one, and will get the targets to show that... But I can certainly see more double teams on him, and I can see that causing a slower start to the season...

I see him as a elite WR2... But I am not sold yet on him being a fantasy WR1...

 

[Shanemansj13]

I don't think switching AJB and Evans makes it worse. At worst I'd say it's a lateral move. That, plus the 1st and a potential stud at TE (he'll be fine for at least this year with Cook and Dissly) makes me think he should make the trade even more.

I agree he will be fine at TE so that's why I am fine either way with this trade but I don't particularly love the Titans' passing offense even though Brown is stud. I still think if you are competing NOW, Evans is a slight upgrade over Brown.
The 1st has no value right now bc if he were to win the championship...who cares.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

may all be for naught, the AJB owner doesn't like coughing up the 1st round pick, and can't imagine I move a 26yr old WR on a historic pace to start his career for anything less than what I offered/asked for.

he's thinking about it over the weekend, but since he's already showing hesitation before really diving in, doubtful it happens.

Feel like I'd be taking on a bit more of the risk, which is why I'll be a stickler for that 1st having to be part of the deal.

bummer, as Bandit alluded to in his previous post on this thread, movement has been SCARCE in this league, and it's sapped a bit of the enjoyment out of it.