Which catcher is more likely to be in the HOF?

[calsnowskier]

Oops, my bad. You did add more to Posey's case though. Everyone is talking like he's already moved to first base. If he is still playing catcher and playing good defense and even hitting like Mauer is now that's still good enough. The problem with Mauer is they moved him to 1B/DH to preserve him and keep his bat in the lineup, but somehow his offense has been in a straight decline since he stopped catching. He really needs to turn it around this year because in today's climate if he has one more bad year, then comes back with a good year in 2017 there will be all kinds of PED questions.

Last year, he was about 70/30 catcher/1B. I would expect that to drop a bit this year (more catcher) unless Belt gets hurt (or some other injury-related circumstance). He has continuously stated that he has no intention of EVER getting out from behind the dish. He loves the position. All the talk of him moving to 1B or 3B (or where ever) is basically entirely fan-generated. I tend to believe it will happen as well, but Posey and the FO have always said there are no plans, fwiw.

For a team captain, it makes sense to be behind the plate. Catcher really is the closest thing baseball has to a QB. Sure, the pitcher throws the ball, but the catcher plays (about) every game, handles the pitching staff and is the primary communicator with the rest of the defense.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Oops, my bad. You did add more to Posey's case though. Everyone is talking like he's already moved to first base. If he is still playing catcher and playing good defense and even hitting like Mauer is now that's still good enough. The problem with Mauer is they moved him to 1B/DH to preserve him and keep his bat in the lineup, but somehow his offense has been in a straight decline since he stopped catching. He really needs to turn it around this year because in today's climate if he has one more bad year, then comes back with a good year in 2017 there will be all kinds of PED questions.

It seems likely to me that both of those things share the same cause. The position thing is permanent, but we'll have to see whether or not the offense is.

 

[calsnowskier]

It seems likely to me that both of those things share the same cause. The position thing is permanent, but we'll have to see whether or not the offense is.

Posey tends to hit better when he plays 1B, but he LIKES catching because it keeps him engaged in the game. MAYBE Mauer does not feel at invested in the game while playing 1B?

 

[Clayton]

Going with neither but Molina is probably closer than you'd think. He has caught 89 playoff games and has a lot of respect and notoriety. I'm guessing he either needs to play two more seasons or he needs to go deep in the playoffs this season. Being banged up the past 2 years has really hurt the Cardinals.

Posey is a lock unless he totally breaks down

 

[StanMarsh51]

Posey tends to hit better when he plays 1B, but he LIKES catching because it keeps him engaged in the game. MAYBE Mauer does not feel at invested in the game while playing 1B?

Which might be skewed as it's possible that Posey faces a disproportionate amount of lefty pitchers when he plays 1B, since Bochy's been known to sit Belt vs lefties.

 

[calsnowskier]

Which might be skewed as it's possible that Posey faces a disproportionate amount of lefty pitchers when he plays 1B, since Bochy's been known to sit Belt vs lefties.

And SSS.

The logic makes sense, though. When he is in the dugout, he is not fiddling with the equipment or talking with the pitcher about the coming batters. He is able to concentrate on his offense. Also, his legs are stronger.

Basically, who knows. There are 100 reasons why the difference means something and 100 reasons why the difference does not mean anything.

 

[calsnowskier]

Going with neither but Molina is probably closer than you'd think. He has caught 89 playoff games and has a lot of respect and notoriety. I'm guessing he either needs to play two more seasons or he needs to go deep in the playoffs this season. Being banged up the past 2 years has really hurt the Cardinals.

Posey is a lock unless he totally breaks down

Mauer was a lock just a few years back as well.

I think Posey will be in. But if he tanks from here on out and ends up being a below-average 1B, I am not 100% certain.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Posey tends to hit better when he plays 1B, but he LIKES catching because it keeps him engaged in the game. MAYBE Mauer does not feel at invested in the game while playing 1B?

I guess I should have been clearer. I was talking about the concussions/post-concussion syndrome.

 

[calsnowskier]

I guess I should have been clearer. I was talking about the concussions/post-concussion syndrome.

Of course. Sorry, I did not make the connection.

Very good point.

 

[ducky]

Is Mauer going to get back on the juice as he approaches the end of his career? Because if yes, then he'll get in. If he plays clean, then no.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Of course. Sorry, I did not make the connection.

Very good point.

Don't have to apologize at all, I actually didn't realize/remember that I hadn't mentioned it directly until I reread my post.

I wouldn't be willing to bet on it (I'm probably cutting him in my sim league after this year actually) but I don't think that him being productive again, even by first base standards, is completely out of the question.

 

[scoutyjones2]

Going with neither but Molina is probably closer than you'd think. He has caught 89 playoff games and has a lot of respect and notoriety. I'm guessing he either needs to play two more seasons or he needs to go deep in the playoffs this season. Being banged up the past 2 years has really hurt the Cardinals.

Posey is a lock unless he totally breaks down

What does playoff appearances have to do with an individual getting to the HOF???? He's a career 97 OPS+ whose dWAR is barely above his oWAR...not seeing this as HOF material

 

[Clayton]

What does playoff appearances have to do with an individual getting to the HOF????

When I see something like this, I feel like people have jumped the shark with statistics. Fact of the matter is that Molina has been leading a lot of young pitchers to the playoffs every year. If I had a dollar for everytime he had to walk up to the mound and chill a wild Cardinals reliever out and then the Cards got a strikeout or a pop up, I'd go buy a new Ipad.

Imo, Perez has like a 90% chance of breaking down the way the Royals use him.

 

[gunnarthor]

Going with neither but Molina is probably closer than you'd think. He has caught 89 playoff games and has a lot of respect and notoriety. I'm guessing he either needs to play two more seasons or he needs to go deep in the playoffs this season. Being banged up the past 2 years has really hurt the Cardinals.

Posey is a lock unless he totally breaks down

7 years Buster Posey - .310/.375/.484 141 OPS+, 28.8 WAR. 1 MVP, 1 ROY, 3x all-star, 3 silver sluggers
First 7 years Joe Mauer - .327/.407/.481 137 OPS+, 33.2 WAR. 1 MVP, 4x all-star, 4 ss, 3 gg.

Even if you want to move the numbers around a bit - compare at the same age, first full x seasons, whatever, Mauer was always better than Posey. I think it's way to early to suggest Posey's a lock barring a break down.

 

[dredinis21]

7 years Buster Posey - .310/.375/.484 141 OPS+, 28.8 WAR. 1 MVP, 1 ROY, 3x all-star, 3 silver sluggers
First 7 years Joe Mauer - .327/.407/.481 137 OPS+, 33.2 WAR. 1 MVP, 4x all-star, 4 ss, 3 gg.

Even if you want to move the numbers around a bit - compare at the same age, first full x seasons, whatever, Mauer was always better than Posey. I think it's way to early to suggest Posey's a lock barring a break down.

3 WS rings, anchor of all three teams. You forgot that one. Also, if not for the reputation of Molina, he gets just as many GGs.

 

[StanMarsh51]

3 WS rings, anchor of all three teams. You forgot that one. Also, if not for the reputation of Molina, he gets just as many GGs.

I don't know if I'd go that far, considering that in Posey's 5 'full' seasons, Molina's been better statistically defensively in 4 of them.

 

[Mondo Jay]

Certainly not known for defense, but Brain McCann has put together a very good offensive career. I wonder if he will get any consideration?

 

[dredinis21]

I don't know if I'd go that far, considering that in Posey's 5 'full' seasons, Molina's been better statistically defensively in 4 of them.

You took my stance as a slight to Molina, which it was not intended to be. Molina earned his GGs however, using your very numbers, Posey should have 1 GG that isn't currently in his trophy case.

 

[calsnowskier]

7 years Buster Posey - .310/.375/.484 141 OPS+, 28.8 WAR. 1 MVP, 1 ROY, 3x all-star, 3 silver sluggers
First 7 years Joe Mauer - .327/.407/.481 137 OPS+, 33.2 WAR. 1 MVP, 4x all-star, 4 ss, 3 gg.

Even if you want to move the numbers around a bit - compare at the same age, first full x seasons, whatever, Mauer was always better than Posey. I think it's way to early to suggest Posey's a lock barring a break down.

Great breakdown, but as dredinis stated, Posey has the 3 rings to go along with his other accolades. He also has taken the title of "Captain" from Jeter.

I agree that some (myself certainly included) have jumped the gun on ordering the marble block for the sculptor of his bust, but he really would need to falter quite badly from here on out to not be AT LEAST a strong fringe candidate. Mauer has achieved this level of falter-age.

 

[gunnarthor]

Certainly not known for defense, but Brain McCann has put together a very good offensive career. I wonder if he will get any consideration?

Yeah, he's been pretty good and stacks up fine, by WAR, with Molina.

WAR Graphs | FanGraphs Baseball